Is this stuff being used for anything yet or is it still just tulips?

Betfair finally settled their election markets!

That's the real quiz.

I notice that, in order to get everyone round before dark, some groups are starting from the 10th tee. Surely this must be a disadvantage - the 10th is averaging 4.31, making it the toughest hole on the course and then it's Amen Corner.

Assuming the groups swap round tomorrow I guess there might be value in Day 1 leaders from those who start today on the 1st, and then value bets tomorrow on those who start from 10 today.

We can't have any mention of Ben Carson without some images from his house.

First, the bible quote that is chiselled into his wall, from the book of 'poverbs'.

Click to see full-size image.

Secondly, the painting of Ben just chilling out with his good buddy Jesus.

Click to see full-size image.

You have to love the idea that the Democrats are able to run this sophisticated election rigging operation and yet, in an election where they are forecast to win the Senate, manage to rig it so that they don't win the Senate.

If anyone literally wants to pick money off the street then Joe Biden is 1.17 to win the popular vote on Betfair. Hillary got 68m to Trumps’s 65m last time and, really, how is Biden going to let a 3m vote headstart slip when he’s not hated like Hillary and everyone knows what Trump is like now. There’s very few undecided voters to break Trump’s way this time and Biden is currently 9% up in the polls.

Trump can’t even get this bet beat by stealing it in the Supreme Court as Betfair settle it on how CNN call it.

Anyone who is still friendly with Denise can get 1/6 (1.166 without the commission) so fill your boots.

Maureen this is just the most awful news - thinking of all of you right now.

He's odds-on on Betfair right now.

Usually there'd be no chance - they'd give him some other award or something but there may not being an issue with giving SPOTY to someone for non-sporting reasons in a year when there has been absolutely sod all sport.

Ireland's government has agreed to return the country to the highest level of coronavirus restrictions for six weeks from midnight on Wednesday. So Irish politicians’ defiance of scientific advisers last 10 days. Let’s see how long Mr Johnson holds put.

It also means I’m going to have to get up early tomorrow to get to the barbers when they open as it’ll be my last chance of a haircut till nearly Christmas.

Big swing back to Trump on Betfair.  Biden now 1.69/1.7 having been less than 1.5 two or three days ago.  I don't see anything much in the polls, but lots of talk of measures that are stopping poorer people voting. 

Florida is still very close too, and voter suppression measures could be more significant in a close race?

The only thing that springs to mind is that stupid Hunter Biden story over the weekend that the Trump campaign were obviously hoping would be this year's 'But her emails!', but that story was quickly shown up to be a very obvious and clumsy piece of Rudy Giuliani black ops so didn't really get much traction.

The only aspect which could possibly have an effect is that the social media companies decided this was the story where they would stop blocking access to it because it was so obviously bullshit, which could energise some portion of the Trump base but that really isn't going to be enough to swing things his way.

[but being a friend of Donald Trump seemed to be one of the main criteria for many of these appointments.]

If somebody in the World didn't realise he is a lunatic, he is allegedly trying to organise a rally in Florida for tomorrow.  Just stay in quarantine you crazy mofo.  Surely at some stage he experiences some sort of guilt after realising he may have already infected some of the people in his inner circle?  I assume he views at least some of them as friends?   In normal times that wouldn't be the case, but being a friend of Donald Trump seemed to be one of the main criteria for many of these appointments.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/09/donald-trump-florida-rally-saturday-covid-test

Loved the comment a couple of days ago that people were protecting Biden by organising a virtual debate.  I think he genuinely thinks that giving Coronavirus to Biden would be a good test for who is fittest to be President.

Donald Trump is essentially a mob boss - and the only quality he's really interested in anybody is personal loyalty to him (so that that person is not a threat to him). We've seen it plenty of times over the last few years - Trump says Person X is a really great guy, a good friend of mine, he'll do a tremendous job. Then that person says something which just mildly critical of Trump or even just something slightly short of Pence-level arselicking and it's all 'I never really liked him, he was terrible at his job, I barely even knew the guy.'

I know there's constitutional stuff around succession but if Trump died pre election is there a mechanism for Republicans to choose a new candidate who isn't Pence

I think if it were to happen, the party would have to nominate another candidate as they normally do, just would be rushed through.

Pence would only 'inherit' the presidency, but wouldn't automatically become the Republican candidate for the election.

Believe this is the same should Biden become incapacitated, the Democrats would still have to formally nominate someone else through the normal process.


(This may be slightly wrong, will leave to someone with better knowledge to correct)

https://www.vox.com/21502447/trump-biden-death-what-happens

Essentially the easiest option is to go with the VP but they don't have to and there is plenty of scope for shenanigans if the election is close.

That doctor's briefing was like a clue on 321 where the answer is 'the President was given oxygen in the White House on Friday morning'.

Given that, whilst he was evasive, he did so to not outright lie, then I think we can trust his statement that Trump is much better today. Therefore it's the statement from the chief of staff that is the lie. They clearly want to work some kind of hero recovery story out of this and Trump feeling better after one day does not fit that narrative, therefore they're pretending he is sicker than he is. Of course Trump will destroy that himself by tweeting 'Just did 200 pushups in the hospital - feeling super super great!!!'

It's astonishing.

Traveling by train after taking a test because you're feeling a bit better is the sort of thing an ordinary dipshit might do, but travelling back after testing positive is world class dribbling idiot behaviour.

I am quite surprised Biden is as big as 1.65 on betfair.  I know a week is a long time in politics yada yada. but it feels less close than last time and last time Trump was a much bigger price. 

I know your memory plays tricks on you, but I thought Trump was about 5/1 when I backed him, and the polls were closer?  I accept it may have been a timing thing, but I am sure I backed Trump when the pollls were quite close, and am pretty sure I didn't do so when they were as much as 7% apart (current poll of polls on the BBC).  I am not sure there is an easy way of checking this as I don't keep records of each bet in that much detail for betfair (where I assume I made the bet, though can't even be sure of that).

It really is one of the strangest betting markets I can ever remember. There is a lot of what happened in 2016 and everyone thinking it is the same, whereas Bidens polling lead is bigger, stable and with a lot less undecideds than Hillary In 2016.

Backing Trump at anything less than 2/1, you either have to believe the polls are very wrong (outside the margin of error) or that Trump has very real chance of winning an election in the Supreme Court on some voter fraud ruling.

It has been proper crazy - the most outlying major betting market I can ever remember. I bet on Biden a few months ago and have been forced to just go in again and again as I thought the price was more and more out of line.

The price on Biden finally moved last night - 1.83 to 1.62. I guess part of the reason for the market being strong on Trump was a thought that Biden would fall apart in the debates. That obviously didn't transpire (even though I thought Biden's first 30 mins or so were very low energy and unimpressive).

As has been stated, some things are different from last time. Biden is up by 7% a month out, compared to Clinton's 3.5% last time. Also there seem to be far fewer undecided voters this time round - Trump mopped up the majority of these last time but there aren't as many this time round in an election where he's further back.

The main complication now is what happens if the election is close - Biden may be ahead but if Trump doesn't concede and it goes to the Supreme Court things get messy.

Betfair rules on this market are 'This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.'

Not sure what 'projected Electoral College votes' are - projected by whom?