Last 60 Tribeca $15k

[Royal Flush]

Multi-Table Tournament
Table Name Hand ID Game Stakes
MTT Table 1 9218174-104 Holdem No Limit 300/600
[May 18 23:30:34] : Hand Start.
[May 18 23:30:34] : Seat 1 : acesdraw7 has $27,310
[May 18 23:30:34] : Seat 2 : tennis jim has $19,670
[May 18 23:30:34] : Seat 3 : Flush Royal has $14,150
[May 18 23:30:34] : Seat 4 : maddieann has $3,630
[May 18 23:30:34] : Seat 5 : orwellrules has $14,180
[May 18 23:30:34] : Seat 6 : shipcheez has $14,175
[May 18 23:30:34] : Seat 7 : neckbroke has $14,655
[May 18 23:30:34] : Seat 8 : downandout2 has $16,060
[May 18 23:30:34] : Seat 9 : umustbeatme has $16,010
[May 18 23:30:34] : tennis jim is the dealer.
[May 18 23:30:34] : Flush Royal posted small blind.
[May 18 23:30:34] : maddieann posted big blind.
[May 18 23:30:34] : Game [104] started with 9 players.
[May 18 23:30:34] : Dealing Hole Cards.
[May 18 23:30:34] : Seat 3 : Flush Royal has
[May 18 23:30:38] : orwellrules folded.
[May 18 23:30:39] : shipcheez folded.
[May 18 23:30:43] : neckbroke called 600
[May 18 23:30:44] : downandout2 folded.
[May 18 23:30:48] : umustbeatme called 600 and raised 2,400
[May 18 23:30:54] : acesdraw7 folded.
[May 18 23:30:54] : tennis jim folded.
[May 18 23:31:03] : Flush Royal called 2,700
[May 18 23:31:04] : maddieann folded.
[May 18 23:31:09] : neckbroke called 2,400 and raised 11,655 and is All-in
[May 18 23:31:19] : umustbeatme folded.

Whats the play?

[jezza777]

pass -

[ifm]

i fold too

[WellChief]

I don't like the initial flat call.  I'd probably fold to the all in as well.

[Royal Flush]

I don't like the initial flat call.  I'd probably fold to the all in as well.

I called because i had reverse position in a decent sized pot.

[NoflopsHomer]

Pass, the only hands you can hope he might have are JJ or TT.

[Royal Flush]

I am suprised no-one has said call, what do you all think he has got?

[Dubai]

Call Flushy, he has a small pair and is making a sandwich play.

[Royal Flush]

Call Flushy, he has a small pair and is making a sandwich play.

exactly what i read. I called and he actually had JC which knocked me out. How do you rate his play? I think it was quite good as a lot of people clearly pass AQ to him.

[matt674]

Call Flushy, he has a small pair and is making a sandwich play.

exactly what i read. I called.

Even if he is making a play like this with a small pair you still call and put your tournament life on the line with a hand that will lose more often that it will win?

Personally i think thats a bad call - you are calling and hoping that you are a slight underdog. If you make 3 calls like this during a tournament where you are putting your tournament life on the line as a slight underdog then the chances of you still being in the tournament after the third hand is approx 10%, you will have been eliminated from the tournament 9 times out of 10 just on those three hands alone. AND THAT IS THE BEST CASE SENARIO!!

If your opponent has AK, KK or QQ you are a 3-1 underdog and if he has AA you are more than a 9-1 underdog and your chances of still being in the tournament go from 10% to virtually none.

If you pass you still have over $11k in chips which is more than enough to rebuild, there will be much better opportunites to get your chips in with a hand that is a favourite!!

[matt674]

How do you rate his play? I think it was quite good as a lot of people clearly pass AQ to him.

I think the call reraise all in manouvre is a good one and it is one i have used in the past many times myself - however in this situation i feel it is not a good one. To make a move like this you have to know and be 100% certain that your opponents are capable of laying down good hands.

The initial pre-flop raiser has to be wary that someone has limped UTG and therefore there is a possibility that they are limping with a monster hand, it may well be however that they are limping with a marginal hand trying to make it look like they are sat on a monster hand. He has chosen to raise but the thing that would set an alarm ringing in my head is that the pre-flop raise has then been flat called by someone out of position.

For someone to call a preflop raise out of position for about one fifth of their stack then you have to believe they have a better than average hand and its then at this point that you know that your KJ o/s is behind to at least one of the two hands. Its now you have to decide whether your opponents are capable of laying down good hands.

If you cannot say for definate in both instances "yes" then the all in reraise is a bad move as it is likely that you will get called. You are commiting your whole stack as an underdog when you only had about 5% of your stack invested in the pot in the first place.

<post edit comments: i'd also add that this move has more chance of success during a live tournemant than an online tournament as in general players are more likely to call online>

[Highstack]

I don't like the call for 2700 and I like the all in call even less. Tbh limp then all in smells of something much bigger than KJ, but that doesnt make it a good play by him.

Yes you had reverse position, but are you leading out on an Ace flop? If your plan is to hit the Q then there is not an awful lot of difference between playing AQ and Ax and hoping x is the top card on the flop. The worst thing about AQ is that it plays poorly against AK. With position I would have called/pushed, but from the small blind I pass to the first raise.

[byronkincaid]

Even if he is making a play like this with a small pair you still call and put your tournament life on the line with a hand that will lose more often that it will win?

Personally i think thats a bad call - you are calling and hoping that you are a slight underdog. If you make 3 calls like this during a tournament where you are putting your tournament life on the line as a slight underdog then the chances of you still being in the tournament after the third hand is approx 10%, you will have been eliminated from the tournament 9 times out of 10 just on those three hands alone. AND THAT IS THE BEST CASE SENARIO!!

If your opponent has AK, KK or QQ you are a 3-1 underdog and if he has AA you are more than a 9-1 underdog and your chances of still being in the tournament go from 10% to virtually none.

If you pass you still have over $11k in chips which is more than enough to rebuild, there will be much better opportunites to get your chips in with a hand that is a favourite

I fundamentaly disagree with just about everything here, yet you have won zillions more than me playing MTTs so whadda I know???

Just because you are a dog in a hand doesn't mean it's a -EV play. Many experts say you want to be taking the vast majority if not all of your +EV opportunity's especially early in a tourney. That makes sense to me but I've seen a few posts by you that seem to be saying the complete opposite. I guess there's more than one way to skin a cat. It's an interesting thing to think about.

[matt674]

I fundamentaly disagree with just about everything here, yet you have won zillions more than me playing MTTs so whadda I know???

Just because you are a dog in a hand doesn't mean it's a -EV play. Many experts say you want to be taking the vast majority if not all of your +EV opportunity's especially early in a tourney. That makes sense to me but I've seen a few posts by you that seem to be saying the complete opposite. I guess there's more than one way to skin a cat. It's an interesting thing to think about.

I never said that it was a -EV play but sometimes in tournament poker just because something has a +EV doesnt necessarily make it the correct play. If by making the call in this instance means that you are missing out on possibly making a move with a higher +EV later on then the move may not be correct.

Say for instance you knew that within the next round or so you were going to get dealt AK vs your opponents AQ (who say for instance is the chip leader at the table), you have two choices. You can make the call in the first instance with the AQ and hope that you are a slight underdog (though you may well be a 3-1 or 9-1 underdog) and if you win you will then have more chips to play the AK vs AQ hand or you can wait and take your chances with the AK vs AQ.

Lets play out the senarios saying that in the first instance that your AQ is up against a pair such as 88 and its is a 50-50 shot (for simplicity). If you decide to call the first all in then half the time you will lose and be out of the tournament and half the time you will win and have $28k to take to the second bet. Then taking the second bet you will lose your $28k one out of four times and the other three times you will turn your $28k into $56k.

So in this instance there is a 65% chance that you will no longer be in the tournament and a 35% chance that you will have improved your stack to $56k

So the EV for this call would = (56000*35/100) + (-14000*65/100) = +$10500

If you decide to pass with the AQ and save your money just for the second bet then there is a 25% chance that you would be out of the tournament and a 75% chance that you would have improved your stack to $28k

Then the EV for this call would = (28000*75/100) + (-14000*25/100) = +$17500

(even if you to take into consideration the fact that some chips had already been lost during the first hand then the calculation will look as follows - (22000*75/100) + (-14000*25/100) = +$13000)

So of the three EV calculations the worse one of the three to take would be the first one - yes you will make more chips but the chance of you being around to use them is greatly reduced.

Of course +/- EV calculations take into consideration that you are one of the better players in the tournament so that you can use your skill and ability to outplay your opponents rather than having to rely on luck - if however you are not one of the better players in the tournament then it may be to your advantage to take the risk to give yourself enough chips to get as far in the tournament as possible and +/-EV calculations are irrelavent.

It also takes into consideration that you know that you are going to get a better hand later in the tournament - obviously this may not happen straight away but if you are a good enough player then you should be able to find a good opportunity steal a few pots here and there to afford yourself some breathing space until the big hand comes along.

If you end up making the call in the first instance and your AQ was to walk into AK, KK or QQ then your EV calculation for the first scenario would be (56000*18.75/100) + (-14000*81.25/100) = -$875 - a -EV play. Given that usually a move like this represents a big hand then there are just as many times when this scenario will occur as the AQ vs 88 one.

[byronkincaid]

Matt, you are playing heads up for $1000 winner takes all. Blinds 15K/30k you are on the button and raise to 90k with J9 suited. You both have 300k and the other guy goes all in. Do you call?

What if he flips his cards over and shows AK off and goes all in, Do you call?