Vegas & The Aftermath - Diary

[RED-DOG]

Actually, the software is excellent and they have some of the best structured Mtt's on the net.

[Royal Flush]

Actually, the software is excellent and they have some of the best structured Mtt's on the net.

Have the structures changed recenlty then?

[StuartHopkin]

Ladbrokes Shares were the biggest faller on the FTSE250 today.

Their 2009 Results came in 29% worse than 2008, which is pretty dire, all things considered.  The contribution from poker, apparently, was worse than that.

They do seem to have lost their way somewhere along the line.

6/4 that Cyril Stein would be turning in his grave.

I dont really think you could call an pre tax profit of £191,300,000 dire!
Yeah its not as great as last year but considering in theory no one had a spare penny last year I wouldnt grumble.

[tikay]

Ladbrokes Shares were the biggest faller on the FTSE250 today.

Their 2009 Results came in 29% worse than 2008, which is pretty dire, all things considered.  The contribution from poker, apparently, was worse than that.

They do seem to have lost their way somewhere along the line.

6/4 that Cyril Stein would be turning in his grave.

I dont really think you could call an pre tax profit of £191,300,000 dire!

Yeah its not as great as last year but considering in theory no one had a spare penny last year I wouldnt grumble.

The eye-waterng sum is not relevant - they were well down on 2008, & "the market", which, like Bookies, )oh, the irony) rarely gets it wrong, marked the Shares down accordingly.

The anticipated Results of any Listed Company are reflected into the share price well before the figures come out, & normally, a fall of this magnitude would have been trailed extensively by their brokers. It was not, it was a massive shock, & the Shares dived accordingly.

When a Company has....

1) Had a Rights Issue during the Reported period, as Laddies have.

2) Have net debt of almost £700 million, despite the recent Rights Issue.

3) EPS drops from 32p to 22p......

....then these are very clear distress signals. Very clear.

One would have to be a serious optimist to think their Shares represent value. Especially if you'd owned 4,000 of them since the mid-eighties, ffs.

The remaining hope is of a Management buy-out or some sort of V-C deal. I file those Shares in a filing tray called "WTF was I thinking when I bought those?". It's a big tray, too.

Jeez, I've wasted some money in my time. I enjoyed wasting it, too, perversely.

[tikay]

Ladbrokes Shares were the biggest faller on the FTSE250 today.

Their 2009 Results came in 29% worse than 2008, which is pretty dire, all things considered.  The contribution from poker, apparently, was worse than that.

They do seem to have lost their way somewhere along the line.

6/4 that Cyril Stein would be turning in his grave.

I dont really think you could call an pre tax profit of £191,300,000 dire!
Yeah its not as great as last year but considering in theory no one had a spare penny last year I wouldnt grumble.

Several Gaming companiers are reporting double-digit growth for 2009. Nothing is better for gaming-based companies or gambling in general than a really bad recession.

To be fair, it was not a grumble, it was an observation. These things interest me greatly.

Bring back Cyril Stein, I say.

[Cottonbud]

All I can say is boy do I wish I bought shares in Apple about 5 years ago . The iPhone has to be one of the biggest successes of the decade? But then again 5 years ago I was doing a paper round in Swindon lol.

[The Camel]

Why haven't Ladbrokes/Hills/Corals etc set up their own betting exchange?

Betfair totally rules the betting market now, you can't get a bet on with a bookie if their price is even a fraction bigger than betfair.

I wanted to back have £1500 on Bayern to beat Fiorentina at 8/15 in the Chanpions League on Tuesday.

The betfair price was 1.48-1.49. I could have traded this bet for a free £50 or something.

Ladbrokes offered me £30 at the price on the coupon and the rest at 2/5.

They aren't bookies any more, they are penny pinching accountants.

[StuartHopkin]

I think the actual net debt is just over a billion, but why do you think this is a problem?

Net worth is minus £60m, therefore they will probably have the balance sheet back in the black next year.

Im sure theyre are many reasons for the share price dropping.

I know you werent grumbling (for a change ) but I'm ijust generally interested in this stuff too, and dont often have a chance to discuss it.

[EvilPie]

Why haven't Ladbrokes/Hills/Corals etc set up their own betting exchange?

Betfair totally rules the betting market now, you can't get a bet on with a bookie if their price is even a fraction bigger than betfair.

I wanted to back have £1500 on Bayern to beat Fiorentina at 8/15 in the Chanpions League on Tuesday.

The betfair price was 1.48-1.49. I could have traded this bet for a free £50 or something.

Ladbrokes offered me £30 at the price on the coupon and the rest at 2/5.

They aren't bookies any more, they are penny pinching accountants.

I take it you didn't have the £30 bet and trade it for a free quid?

A good friend of mine used to bet a lot before the days of betfair. Once the bookies started to cap his bets he'd spite not place them because it wasn't worth it. Surely though if something's value it's value?

The fact that you can't make as much as you'd like shouldn't affect the bet should it? The % win is the same so the bet is just as good however much it's for?

[NigDawG]

All I can say is boy do I wish I bought shares in Apple about 5 years ago . The iPhone has to be one of the biggest successes of the decade? But then again 5 years ago I was doing a paper round in Swindon lol.

hey, whatever pays for the fish and chips mate!

[tikay]

I think the actual net debt is just over a billion, but why do you think this is a problem?

Net worth is minus £60m, therefore they will probably have the balance sheet back in the black next year.

Im sure theyre are many reasons for the share price dropping.

I know you werent grumbling (for a change ) but I'm ijust generally interested in this stuff too, and dont often have a chance to discuss it.

It was one billion at end of 2008. In 2009, they had a Rights Issue in '09 to reduce debt, so the reduction was not "worked off", it came from Shareholders. Parallel with that, earnings, even before the EPS adjustment caused by the RI, fell.

That's a whole series of warning flags. They are not gonna go belly up, but they do seem to have lost their way, rather as Rank, & Coral-Gala-Eurobet (what a name that is!) also have.

If these things interest you, as you say, & they certainly interest me, Tighty is the man to ask, & comment - analysing these signs was what he did for a living, I believe he was a Senior Analyst for an Investment fund worth billions.

So, over to you, Tighty, interpret Laddies results for us, please.

Details are here.....

http://investors.ladbrokesplc.com/

[TightEnd]

Ladbrokes's trading may be stabilising, but the shops are underperfroming Hills a lot still, and the rights issue has put it on a sounder financial footing. But the group is struggling to compete online, and its a struggle to see it having the fire-power to invest in the ready-made solution it needs. In essence it is an old fashioned business competing against nimbler and better financed businesses with more innovation

It's also yet to find a replacement for outgoing chief executive Chris Bell and, on a forecast PE ratio of 10, the shares are high enough (ie likely to fall further) considering tougher gambling taxation in 2010, tough consumer outlook etc. Set against that, the World Cup should be great news, unless England win!

Debt wise they are refinancing debt due soon to mature after 2012, this should provide some comfort.

A MBO/VC buyout is a possibility at some stage. Run it for cash, work the assets, get away from City demands for growth. The core isn't a growth business, the new areas are but require shed loads of investment

[neeko]

Ladbrokes should stick to only dealing with High Rollers - looks a great business to be in.

Net revenue from High Rollers £68.5m
Operating profit from High Rollers £66.9m

97.6% margin - hard times, up from 81.5% last year.


£8.8bn was put though their machines !!!!!!!!!!!!!! three times more than over the counter, they are not a betting shop more a slots co with a bit of a sports book on the side.

[tikay]

Ladbrokes should stick to only dealing with High Rollers - looks a great business to be in.

Net revenue from High Rollers £68.5m
Operating profit from High Rollers £66.9m

97.6% margin - hard times, up from 81.5% last year.


£8.8bn was put though their machines !!!!!!!!!!!!!! three times more than over the counter, they are not a betting shop more a slots co with a bit of a sports book on the side.

Yes, two extraordinary figures. And perhaps the answer to their problems.....

[StuartHopkin]

Thanks Tighty

Tikay where do you get the net debt figure from? I have 1,143.2 at 31/12/09 and 1,622.9 at 31/12/09