Hand of the week: December 10th

[Royal Flush]

I call here.

Yes you miss out on value off lower sets but that's it really. I think flushy's range of set or straight as the only likely hands that call a push is likely and given the depreciating value of chips factor, and that the extra 32k or so chips you make are not that significant to your stack whereas the 32k chips you lose are significantly more valuable to you, it makes the conservative play correct here imo.

The way he plays the hand is significantly weighted toward K-J too imo. The way the hand pans out almost exactly fits the profile of how he would play K-J. Ok, so the preflop call is marginal but he has chips and it's not impossible he's decided to take a chance with this as he holds position on the preflop raiser. Every action post flop fits KJ perfectly.

If his range included hands like A-T A-Q A-K, I think a push would be better but as these hands are extremely unlikely given the lack of preflop raise and lack of flop bettage, I think by the end you can virtually put him on nothing (not that likely), a set or the nuts. I would expect a player to normally play the turn on this board with a set a little more aggressively too so it's probably close to a 50-50 if he has set or straight here.

So call and if he turns over a set, no worries you've lost a little bit of value here, if he turns over a bluff, well you've lost nothing and if he turns over the nuts, hard cheese, but you have 10 BBs and are no where near out of it given the average stack of 15 BBs...

Remarkably similar to my reveal, only far better written.

Almost as if you were in the same room...........

Well we were when i played the hand, but not atm

[snoopy1239]

The reveal to this hand can be found here:

http://www.blondepoker.com/index.php?q=node/14310

[boldie]

nice....you giant..giant luckbox

[Graham C]

For what it's worth, I like the thinking in the showdown, good stuff Flushy

[boldie]

For what it's worth, I like the thinking in the showdown, good stuff Flushy

agreed the reason as to why calling is better than shoving is well thought out and something I will be looking at in my own play.

[AlexMartin]

For what it's worth, I like the thinking in the showdown, good stuff Flushy

agreed the reason as to why calling is better than shoving is well thought out and something I will be looking at in my own play.

Couldnt disagree more. At this stage and the hand ranges you can put him on the straight and overset is so unlikely that you always always shove here. Im flabbergasted at this.

[Royal Flush]

For what it's worth, I like the thinking in the showdown, good stuff Flushy

agreed the reason as to why calling is better than shoving is well thought out and something I will be looking at in my own play.

Couldnt disagree more. At this stage and the hand ranges you can put him on the straight and overset is so unlikely that you always always shove here. Im flabbergasted at this.

lol

[MANTIS01]

Just caught up with the result of this hand and one thing that strikes me is the amount of members who say they would push on the river. These are the words of cash game players and we are playing a tournament.

JungleCat scores a bullseye with his reading of the situation.

To put nothing into the pot when ahead and then to put everything into the pot the only time you fall behind against the CL when you were 3rd in the tournament would be a real poker horror show. It would be like waking up naked next to an obese two-headed monster the day after the office Xmas party. You would be smacking yourself in the face all the way home.

Your first priority in a tournament is SURVIVAL and your secondary consideration is chip accumulation. YOU CANNOT ACCUMULATE CHIPS IF YOU GET KNOCKED OUT. This is a basic fact. Tis why any skirmish with the CL should be avoided if possible...when I talk about protecting equity I'm including the tournament life token you toss into the middle when you take him on.

In this example K-J is so possible. The CL KNOWS you have a hand (probably AK) and his bet tells you he wants more chips in anyway. Calling is your only play now. If he flopped a set then the value you loose is the muff-up fine you pay for not betting the flop. But if he does show broadway you are still alive....and this is your priority.

To say that it's just unlucky if he shows the str8 is misguided. YOU gave him a FREE passage to that str8 and when it arrived YOU put all your chips in. This is not unlucky. This is very bad play.

So you have fallen into bed with the obese two-headed monster after the party. Is this unlucky? No. YOU got so drunk she looks like a page 3 model. That is your fault. Now that your are in this mess you should wear a condom? For pity's sake wear a condom!! Saying..."Well if I get her up the duff and we have a small two-headed dragon-child together that's just unlucky"....is both a terrifying thought and also just plain wrong.

Betting the flop gets all the chips in and is like pulling the office darling....a far more enjoyable experience.

[Royal Flush]

Betting the flop gets all the chips in and is like pulling the office darling....a far more enjoyable experience.

I should have just shoved the flop, after all he obv had a set.

[GlasgowBandit]

It would be like waking up naked next to an obese two-headed monster the day after the office Xmas party. ...a far more enjoyable experience.

Two heads you say?  That could be handy!!

[MANTIS01]

I should have just shoved the flop, after all he obv had a set

No, you should bet the flop for all the reasons I gave. If you are going to risk everything from a position of great strength then lets do it when we have it. Waiting until we possibly don't have it and then risking everything is not really necessary.

Couldnt disagree more. At this stage and the hand ranges you can put him on the straight and overset is so unlikely that you always always shove here. Im flabbergasted at this.

It's not really about how unlikely he has us beat...but more that he is unlikely to call with anything that doesn't have us beat. That 32k is worth more in front of us than it is in the middle because of the possibility that he does have it. There is plenty enough in the pot if he doesn't. The two eventualities are CL or OUT if you push and CL or still IN if you call.

[ifm]

Just caught up with the result of this hand and one thing that strikes me is the amount of members who say they would push on the river. These are the words of cash game players and we are playing a tournament.

JungleCat scores a bullseye with his reading of the situation.

To put nothing into the pot when ahead and then to put everything into the pot the only time you fall behind against the CR when you were 3rd in the tournament would be a real poker horror show. It would be like waking up naked next to an obese two-headed monster the day after the office Xmas party. You would be smacking yourself in the face all the way home.

Your first priority in a tournament is SURVIVAL and your secondary consideration is chip accumulation. YOU CANNOT ACCUMULATE CHIPS IF YOU GET KNOCKED OUT. This is a basic fact. Tis why any skirmish with the CR should be avoided if possible...when I talk about protecting equity I'm including the tournament life token you toss into the middle when you take him on.

In this example K-J is so possible. The CR KNOWS you have a hand (probably AK) and his bet tells you he wants more chips in anyway. Calling is your only play now. If he flopped a set then the value you loose is the muff-up fine you pay for not betting the flop. But if he does show broadway you are still alive....and this is your priotity.

To say that it's just unlucky if he shows the str8 is misguided. YOU gave him a FREE passage to that str8 and when it arrived YOU put all your chips in. This is not unlucky. This is very bad play.

So you have fallen into bed with the obese two-headed monster after the party. Is this unlucky? No. YOU got so drunk she looks like a page 3 model. That is your fault. Now that your are in this mess you should wear a condom? For pity's sake wear a condom!! Saying..."Well if I get her up the duff and we have a small two-headed dragon-child together that's just unlucky"....is both a terrifying thought and also just plain wrong.

Betting the flop gets all the chips in and is like pulling the office darling....a far more enjoyable experience.

So what someone else has already said but in 3 X the words yeah?

[Royal Flush]

Just caught up with the result of this hand and one thing that strikes me is the amount of members who say they would push on the river. These are the words of cash game players and we are playing a tournament.

JungleCat scores a bullseye with his reading of the situation.

To put nothing into the pot when ahead and then to put everything into the pot the only time you fall behind against the CR when you were 3rd in the tournament would be a real poker horror show. It would be like waking up naked next to an obese two-headed monster the day after the office Xmas party. You would be smacking yourself in the face all the way home.

Your first priority in a tournament is SURVIVAL and your secondary consideration is chip accumulation. YOU CANNOT ACCUMULATE CHIPS IF YOU GET KNOCKED OUT. This is a basic fact. Tis why any skirmish with the CR should be avoided if possible...when I talk about protecting equity I'm including the tournament life token you toss into the middle when you take him on.

In this example K-J is so possible. The CR KNOWS you have a hand (probably AK) and his bet tells you he wants more chips in anyway. Calling is your only play now. If he flopped a set then the value you loose is the muff-up fine you pay for not betting the flop. But if he does show broadway you are still alive....and this is your priotity.

To say that it's just unlucky if he shows the str8 is misguided. YOU gave him a FREE passage to that str8 and when it arrived YOU put all your chips in. This is not unlucky. This is very bad play.

So you have fallen into bed with the obese two-headed monster after the party. Is this unlucky? No. YOU got so drunk she looks like a page 3 model. That is your fault. Now that your are in this mess you should wear a condom? For pity's sake wear a condom!! Saying..."Well if I get her up the duff and we have a small two-headed dragon-child together that's just unlucky"....is both a terrifying thought and also just plain wrong.

Betting the flop gets all the chips in and is like pulling the office darling....a far more enjoyable experience.

So what someone else has already said but in 3 X the words yeah?

Don't forget the most bizarre analogy on a poker forum ever!

[AlexMartin]

I should have just shoved the flop, after all he obv had a set

No, you should bet the flop for all the reasons I gave. If you are going to risk everything from a position of great strength then lets do it when we have it. Waiting until we possibly don't have it and then risking everything is not really necessary.

Couldnt disagree more. At this stage and the hand ranges you can put him on the straight and overset is so unlikely that you always always shove here. Im flabbergasted at this.

It's not really about how unlikely he has us beat...but more that he is unlikely to call with anything that doesn't have us beat. That 32k is worth more in front of us than it is in the middle because of the possibility that he does have it. There is plenty enough in the pot if he doesn't. The two eventualities are CL or OUT if you push and CL or still IN if you call.

I totally get this Mantis, but lets use our brain for a minute. We know a lot about oppo, we have 3 streets of information.
The pot is already huge, and the last amount we can win is also a big big chunk at this stage. Maximising chip extraction is a big big thing. Opponent cannot be a mug to have got this far in the comp and be the CL. Therefore his betting patterns can be read pretty soundly no?  Look at preflop , flop etc and its pretty clear that.

a) he cant have a straight.
b) he doesnt have an overset. Look at the possible ones out there and the action preflop.
c) he can have an underset and he can have a dodgy 2 pair.

Look at this in terms of probability he has you beaten, what the extra chips mean to you and your tournament life. I dont think the ratio's/probabilities add-up enough of the time to make this warrant a call. I know this looks like a hindsight post but an underset would be exactly what im putting oppo on here.

[Royal Flush]

I should have just shoved the flop, after all he obv had a set

No, you should bet the flop for all the reasons I gave. If you are going to risk everything from a position of great strength then lets do it when we have it. Waiting until we possibly don't have it and then risking everything is not really necessary.

Couldnt disagree more. At this stage and the hand ranges you can put him on the straight and overset is so unlikely that you always always shove here. Im flabbergasted at this.

It's not really about how unlikely he has us beat...but more that he is unlikely to call with anything that doesn't have us beat. That 32k is worth more in front of us than it is in the middle because of the possibility that he does have it. There is plenty enough in the pot if he doesn't. The two eventualities are CL or OUT if you push and CL or still IN if you call.

I totally get this Mantis, but lets use our brain for a minute. We know a lot about oppo, we have 3 streets of information.
The pot is already huge, and the last amount we can win is also a big big chunk at this stage. Maximising chip extraction is a big big thing. Opponent cannot be a mug to have got this far in the comp and be the CL. Therefore his betting patterns can be read pretty soundly no?  Look at preflop , flop etc and its pretty clear that.

a) he cant have a straight.
b) he doesnt have an overset. Look at the possible ones out there and the action preflop.
c) he can have an underset and he can have a dodgy 2 pair.

Look at this in terms of probability he has you beaten, what the extra chips mean to you and your tournament life. I dont think the ratio's/probabilities add-up enough of the time to make this warrant a call. I know this looks like a hindsight post but an underset would be exactly what im putting oppo on here.

I favour the underset as the most likely hand here as well Alex, but i can't rule out the straight, his line fits KJ perfectly (excluding marginal call pre, but he may be a bit of a fish)