Simon[/url]
Galloway link=topic=36807.msg811378#msg811378 date=1221813298]
For Claire to be in a bad run, mis-raising on the cutoff, smooth called by George on the button, me in the big blind, THERE IS NO LONG RUN. It won't happen more than once more in my lifetime.
DING.
If a hand is negative EV in the long run then it is negative EV in the here and now.
You are putting in 10% of your stack when you will flop no pair and no draw most of the time and be oop with little room to maneuver a better hand off the pot given the amount that will be in there in comparison to your remaining chips.
In order for this to be a profitable play, you would need to get a double up at least one out of every 10 times you make this call. Any time you lose the hand and put more in after the flop that increases the amount you have to win that one time out of 10. Flushy already explained in simple terms why J10 is a bad hand in this spot when you consider her range of hands and the part of that range she is likely to stack off with postflop.
It's not as simple as "if I hit a pair or a strong draw I'm going to get paid". In reality, there will be the times you hit two pair or a strong draw and get it in bad or get redogged or dogged or whatever. I remain incredulous as to how calling 10% of your stack here will ever make you money. Yeah, it will some of the times you call - but you surely are smart enough to know that good analysis focuses on the decisions made along the way to the end product - not the end product itself.
It's a bad call, and it shall remain so irrespective of what specious reasoning you may wish to use (Luton poker / fast tournaments / the raiser having a bad run). But by all means continue to make this call if you please - as it is the type of call that makes live tournaments such a profitable endeavor.
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