Marginal Situation ?

[bolt pp]

so you're saying that flatting you have the same problem as you do if you re-raise and get a call? then DUCY flatting is optimum?

Thanks bolt. This makes a lot of sense. Although, just seen your last post and your probably away looking at porn by now. I am trying to work out how I should be analysing my play and for some reason I thought this might be a good place to do it.

At the time I thought this was a marginal decision but I not so sure anymore. I'm coming round to the fact this is an easy fold. I just wondered if anyone would call and if I am analysing my play correctly.

years ago wheni first started playing i remember reading supersystem and memorising all the odds in the back like "the chance of making a str8 with 65 is.........., or the odds of making a str8 with 68 is blah blah blah" then you realise it's got fuck all to do with anything

the only one that really stcuk with me was 7/1 about hittig a set with a pp which actually has applicability.

At the level at which you're playing through repetition you'll find that most of the hands play themselfs and that analysis like this is totally unessasary.

the mathmatical side of things for me really only becomes prominent when playing at a higher level(then only to a limited extent) you're thinking about things like fold equity and pot odds when you're playing a lot more aggressivly, rule of 4 and all that shit then which you'll just know off by heart.

gl gl

[mondatoo]

Excellent point about playing like a tourney i think a lot of new cash players have this problem whereas it's totally different play.

Haven't had time to look at it properly but pretty sure u are using the maths totally wrong apologies in advance if i have read it wrong imo you're pretty much always behind here and possible by a far way.Give it up

[jakally]

LOL, fold

flat pre

I 3-bet here (PF) a fair amount, depending on opponent and game flow.

Always flatting with AQ to a button raise, IMO narrows your 3-bet range too much.
A fair amount of the time you are going to take the £2.25 already in the pot.
If oppo calls you are still likely to be in decent shape against his range.

I would 3-bet Pot sized, or just above (bc out of position) so £5.25 ish.

As played, fold.
Getting your money in first with 30% equity is often ok, but fiddling about trying to justify a call usually means it's a bad call.

[kinboshi]

LOL, fold

flat pre

I 3-bet here (PF) a fair amount, depending on opponent and game flow.

Always flatting with AQ to a button raise, IMO narrows your 3-bet range too much.
A fair amount of the time you are going to take the £2.25 already in the pot.
If oppo calls you are still likely to be in decent shape against his range.

I would 3-bet Pot sized, or just above (bc out of position) so £5.25 ish.

As played, fold.
Getting your money in first with 30% equity is often ok, but fiddling about trying to justify a call usually means it's a bad call.

You're mixing up calls and raises here aren't you?  I'd probably be calling more often than raising, but I guess you'll be raising more often than calling?

[jakally]

LOL, fold

flat pre

I 3-bet here (PF) a fair amount, depending on opponent and game flow.

Always flatting with AQ to a button raise, IMO narrows your 3-bet range too much.
A fair amount of the time you are going to take the £2.25 already in the pot.
If oppo calls you are still likely to be in decent shape against his range.

I would 3-bet Pot sized, or just above (bc out of position) so £5.25 ish.

As played, fold.
Getting your money in first with 30% equity is often ok, but fiddling about trying to justify a call usually means it's a bad call.

You're mixing up calls and raises here aren't you?  I'd probably be calling more often than raising, but I guess you'll be raising more often than calling?

Reread my post and it makes sense to me ................... but that's probably not a good thing.

Yes, raise more than I call.

[kinboshi]

LOL, fold

flat pre

I 3-bet here (PF) a fair amount, depending on opponent and game flow.

Always flatting with AQ to a button raise, IMO narrows your 3-bet range too much.
A fair amount of the time you are going to take the £2.25 already in the pot.
If oppo calls you are still likely to be in decent shape against his range.

I would 3-bet Pot sized, or just above (bc out of position) so £5.25 ish.

As played, fold.
Getting your money in first with 30% equity is often ok, but fiddling about trying to justify a call usually means it's a bad call.

You're mixing up calls and raises here aren't you?  I'd probably be calling more often than raising, but I guess you'll be raising more often than calling?

Reread my post and it makes sense to me ................... but that's probably not a good thing.

Yes, raise more than I call.

Sorry, my wording was bad.  I meant that you vary your play between calling and raising here.  I would probably be calling 75% of the time, raising the other 25%.  I'm guessing you'd be doing something similar but in reverse.

[david3103]

You should also be honoured to be playing on the same table as platonic, a crypto legend and man with the funniest hoax blog online.

I've been wondering about that for ages - i had the privilege misfortune of being on his table at a lower level a while ago and have been viewing the blog with ever increasing incredulity since.

[daviebhoy]

I've been wondering about that for ages - i had the privilege misfortune of being on his table at a lower level a while ago and have been viewing the blog with ever increasing incredulity since.

Just checked the blog out and not really sure what to think. The BNP stuff is a bit much no ?

[gatso]

FWIW here is my analysis I have done afterwards :

I think the most likely holdings are the following hands :

60% I am behind to the following hands which fit the betting :

TT 8 outs
KJ 10 outs
QJ 3 outs (4 to split)
JT 6 outs
AJ - 7 outs
77 - 10 outs
9T - 6 outs (3 to split)
8T - 6 outs (3 to split)

10% I am beating the following :

AQ, 67, AT

20% of the time it is real hands pushing the flop leaving me with 4 outs :

AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 99, 88, QT, Q9, Q8, J9, J8, 89

10% of the time opponent is bluffing.

I'm ahead here - 20% including total bluffs - going to be outdrawn mibbe 20% - 14%
I'm behind 60% with 25% chance of winning. 15%
20% of the time I have a 17% chance of winning - 3.5%

Total - 32.5% winning chance so must fold. I need about 36% chance to win.

Does anyone agree with this analysis ? How would you calculate the winning percentage here ?

overcomplicatedaments and from what I can figure not accurate.  how are you beating AQ? why have you ignored AK completely?

far too much effort put into the wrong things here imo. have you been reading harrington? this looks like his sort of analysis

[Moskvich]

I'm ahead here - 20% including total bluffs - going to be outdrawn mibbe 20% - 14%
I'm behind 60% with 25% chance of winning. 15%
20% of the time I have a 17% chance of winning - 3.5%

Total - 32.5% winning chance so must fold. I need about 36% chance to win.

I suspect your equity is actually a fair bit lower than 32%. Some of the individual hands that you list aren't right - you don't have 8 outs against TT for example, as a Q does you no good. Also a lot of his hands have redraws, which reduces your equity - versus TT, an A on the turn does you no good if a Q comes on the river. Likewise versus a set, you can't count four outs for yourself as if the board then pairs then you're done anyway.

Another complicating factor, if you really wanted to work out your precise equity against his range, would be that you'd need to weight each individual hand differently. So you could reasonably say that he'd always shove AA here, but he wouldn't always shove QT, so AA would have to have more weight in his range.

On the hand itself - I agree with everyone else that it's an automatic fold. Bear in mind that you look really strong here to the average player - by 3-betting preflop you're almost over-representing your hand (depends on the flow of the game of course - I don't know if this game is very aggressive pre, maybe there's loads of 3-betting or maybe hardly any..?). Villain's default thought is probably that you've got JJ+ or AK here, and he wants to get his stack in - so when you've actually got AQ, things look pretty bleak...

[maldini32]

Whats marginal about this hand?

Pass

[mondatoo]

LOL, fold

flat pre

I 3-bet here (PF) a fair amount, depending on opponent and game flow.

Always flatting with AQ to a button raise, IMO narrows your 3-bet range too much.
A fair amount of the time you are going to take the £2.25 already in the pot.
If oppo calls you are still likely to be in decent shape against his range.

I would 3-bet Pot sized, or just above (bc out of position) so £5.25 ish.

As played, fold.
Getting your money in first with 30% equity is often ok, but fiddling about trying to justify a call usually means it's a bad call.

Surely this is a reasoning(is that even a word) for flat calling pre though we aren't looking to win a pot of £2.25 what good is that to anyone we want to stack him and by flatting we don't look as strong as AQ so if he has any ace and it hits the board we will stack him at this level.I would riase a fish with AQ as i know he will call and still stack off if he has an ace to but vs tight/nitty players i would flat it.

Hope you've found this thread useful and take some good pointers from it davie

As gatso said you have wasted a lot of time with your maths and all the hands he could have it doesn't work like that maths is a big importance in poker but you are getting it wrong mate  from what i've read nobodys been to harsh so u've done well lol

And to sum it up and i hope you take this on board as you still see unsure about it

Whats marginal about this hand?

Pass

[jakally]

Surely this is a reasoning(is that even a word) for flat calling pre though we aren't looking to win a pot of £2.25 what good is that to anyone we want to stack him and by flatting we don't look as strong as AQ so if he has any ace and it hits the board we will stack him at this level.I would riase a fish with AQ as i know he will call and still stack off if he has an ace to but vs tight/nitty players i would flat it.

Of course I want to stack him, but if you gave me 4.5 BB's every time I got AQo OOP I would take it.

[AlexMartin]

3b pre is fine, cbet oop on that board is a leak v some oppos.

[daviebhoy]

Hope you've found this thread useful and take some good pointers from it davie

Yes I have. Thanks everyone. As I'm sure some of you suspect I did make the donkey call. I sometimes find the 30secs not long enough to think things through thus I want to be sure what to do next time I am in a similar situation. Figuring opponent was either on bluff, semi-bluff or had the weak jack I thought I may have 10 outs and pressed the call button just before timer ran out.

I am trying to stop these mistakes and have been trying to convince myself this was a fold since and I think I'm there now.

Daviebh0y: calls £23.22
----- TURN ----- [ ]

----- RIVER ----- [ ][] ----- SHOW DOWN ----- Saltyace: shows [ ] (Two Pairs, Jacks and Tens, Nine high) Daviebh0y: shows [ ] (A Straight, Queen high) Daviebh0y collected £61.69 from Main pot ----- SUMMARY ----- Total pot £64.69 Main pot £61.69 Rake £3 Board [ ] Seat 1: Platonic_ folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 2: Saltyace (button) showed [ ] and lost with Two Pairs, Jacks and Tens, Nine high Seat 3: Lindapooh (small blind) folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 4: Daviebh0y (big blind) showed [ ] and won (£61.69) with A Straight, Queen high Seat 5: Chipfoose folded before Flop (didn't bet)