Can't remember where I read it, but I think I recall you writing recently that any 'pro' not playing the SM each week is forsaking $5K equity p.a.
I just wanted to suggest that in my opinion, that is wildly innacurate for the majority of lower stakes pro grinders.
52*215 = 11180
5000/11180 = 45
I think anyone who makes a living from the game can have a 45% ROI in the Sunday Million.
If you are a "Pro grinder" you must be making minimum of £20k $30k p.a?
If these low stakes pro grinders have a 30% roi over an abi of $10 they need to have $100,000 of buy ins a year or 10,000 games or 800 a month/200 a week. - All of these seem reasonable to me.
If they do indeed fit in those numbers then their ROI in the Sunday million can't be wildly far from 45%?
Please correct me if i've missed something and don't think i'm attacking you, just putting numbers down to see if i'm doing something wrong.
Nothing wrong with debate
First of all, not every pro grinder has 2.4 children and a 3bed semi in Surbiton. Many are young and single, living in Brazil or somewhere where a few hundred bux a week is doing very nicely ty. They are pro grinders, and they would mostly be well advised to steer clear of SM variance.
I spend a lot of time on sharkscope etc, more than anyone else I know, dissecting a lot of screen names results by game type, stakes, field sizes, etc etc. Even for allowing for >$100 games, I'm not very often seeing 40% A lot more often, if I filter for 2015, or even 2014+ to get some sample size in, they are more likely to be -ROI in those games than +ROI. That might still be a slightly short term view, but then I also watch a lot of rank and file players play the SM and they really aren't anywhere near the same league as the good guys. They are 'pro' because it is their main source of income, but they aren't the best in the business. They don't make money being able to run faster than the bear... they make money being able to run faster than the fat guy who is also running away from the bear.
Option 1: Play the SM every week. Embrace the variance, and hope to get lucky Grand National style without a pedigree for playing well in $200 mtts.
Option 2: Take the odd $15 each week, use it to try to sat into the SM and play your heart out when you win a seat. Take the $200 each week and stuff it in your mattress. For ease of maths, take your birthday off and Christmas off, so 50 x $200 = $10K. Have fun at Christmas with 10k or go to vegas each year with 10k and take a few shots.
The vast majority of 'pro grinders' don't know what $10k looks like in real money and most certainly don't get $10k in their hand very often. Most will be 'a bit short' at Christmas and 'will need to see how May goes....' before making any WSOP plans.
Therefore, my suggestion would be that most pro grinders would be better off with Option 2.