Prose from a Poshboy

[tikay]

Nice result Alex, well done.

[zerofive]

Alex bust in 5th for 15 million. 7fig score, wp mate. #shitcurrencyftw

8 figure score you mean! Who can say that eh?

Esfandiari

[cambridgealex]

Alex bust in 5th for 15 million. 7fig score, wp mate. #shitcurrencyftw

8 figure score you mean! Who can say that eh?

Esfandiari

Yeh but he's not here is he?

[Tal]

You got an 8 Figure Swagger going on!

Well done

[cambridgealex]

hEV

I've been thinking about this concept for ages now, but finally been pushed over the edge to write it up following two hands I played on the bubble of the LAPT Medellin side event and this brilliant blog from Phil Galfond which can be found here http://www.philgalfond.com/quick-update-fake-math-and-my-philosophy-on-being-a-logical-poker-player/

This blog confirmed a whole bunch of things I'd felt throughout my first two years as a poker pro, but goes against a lot of what I'd been taught in the past and I've always felt like some of the ideas are dumb or silly.

OK so we're on the pure bubble, 17 left, 16 paid. It's my last tournament in Colombia before I go off travelling. I've bricked the first two, so no cashes yet. It's a ~£750 buyin, I have 100% of myself. I think this is one of the most £ I've ever put in to a tournament before. I remember putting in £1k to play EPT Campione and selling the rest, and similar for IPT San Remo but I'd always been staked into stuff like this before, but since going on my own I reckon this is the biggest "punt" I've done. It's about the line to be honest, decided not to sell because it's just so so soft here, and I'd get flamed for the mark-up I feel I'd be worth!

So that's the setting and it causes me to make 2 what I would call "pussy folds". Now bear in mind that I'm definitely on the spewy side rather than nitty generally in my game, so both folds for some would be totally normal, but for me and most aggro tournament players, they're definitely on the tight side, if not plain bad folds in theory.

The details aren’t important, (it was folding 33 and A7ss in semi-standard 3bet shove spots), they were both probably marginally +EV shoves but I did get to thinking about quantifying some of the reasons behind turning down these +EV spots.

1) FLAG Equity. A colombian flag is seriously niche. Does anyone reading have a colombian flag? Didn't think so. It's really cool - yellow, red and blue (but more yellow than red and blue - even cooler). This is my last chance (possibly ever!) to get one. Bragging rights, and it really adds something to the HM page which is, I won't say cluttered (it's not) with GB flags. Wow really saying GB not UK anymore?

Click to see full-size image.

2) Local currency liquidity. Punting in some big donkaments basically put me through all my Colombian Pesos and not cashing would mean I'd have to either lose a small chunk converting $ cash or use my credit card, which I never like doing in foreign countries and may lose out on the exchange rate anyway. Mincash was 3million pesos (About £1.2k) which would've got me through the next couple of weeks travelling.

3) ICM. I'm sceptical about writing too much about this, for fear of highlighting my weak grasp of the technicalities of the concept, but basically bubbling is bad for our $ equity (it's 0 duh) and not bubbling is good so we can sacrifice a small cEV edge right now because it's actually the right thing to do.

4) hEV. (Hee-Vee)

noun
Happiness expected value. Quantifying or justifying non $EV factors that come into play when making decisions in life.

Finally to the point of the blog. I would've been really gutted to bubble. Morale would have taken a serious hit. It was the last chance for a cash like I said, so if I didn't then the trip is a financial failure. That makes me feel bad when planning future trips as most of the trips I've been on have been losing ones (Vegas, San Remo, Campione, Austria to name just the ones this year!) even though my Marbella score means I'm well up on trips overall. It also makes me feel bad for the rest of the night, tomorrow when I'm grinding the sundays alone in my hotel room and would probably loom over the rest of my travels, rather than even just a mincash which would make me feel like it was all worth it - we've got a flag, we've made a bit of $ and we've had a good time.

***

Soon after the bubble burst and I shoved A6hh in a marginal spot (got there vs AK obv) and 3bet shoved 22 in another close spot and got it through. Both were fine shoves, but I would've folded both had we still been on the bubble.

These feelings of being a "pussay" crop up quite regularly in my day to day poker life too. This brings me onto the concept of "booking wins".

I'm definitely more emotional than most about winning or losing. Probably more so than all my fellow professionals that I know well (except for Belton ldo). So I place high importance on going home happy - I like being happy. I like going to sleep happy. And I like waking up the next day happy. All of these things happen when I win nicely, and don't generally happen if I lose big. That's just me, I'm weird, sorry.

So when I'm up £1k in a 1/2 game and there's half an hour to go, I'm happy with that. That's a really good win for £1/2 right? And generally, for a person to win A THOUSAND POUNDS in a day, that's pretty great actually right? I mean muggles say earn on average £10 an hour, that's £80 in a day. My hourly equates to earning quite a bit more than that, but still, my EV for a session is nowhere near £1000. So when presented with an alright spot to fire a £800 river bluff last hand of the night, am I going to take it? Probably not! Don't get me wrong, if it's not close, I'll do it (nah I'm kidding, £800 with nothing, are you mental?!), but if there's a decision that's close, I'm definitely going for the cautious route to preserve the win, and preserve morale for another day. Playing poker professionally is tough on the emotions, for me it is anyway, so keeping morale high for another day is not something to be sniffed at. For those that play in the same cash games as me: This is all a giant level.

The same logic applies to when I'm having a big losing day. My hEV won't change much if I lose a few hundred quid more, but it'll be greatly restored and it'll feel like a win if I get out of it. Hence the odd £200 roulette spin, blackjack hand, or "let's 5b allin with K5suited and if it goes tits up try and make a flush" sort of play. Galfond touches on this idea when he talks about taking breaks when he feels he's not playing his best. He carries on because even his B or C game is still +EV in soft games and his hEV won't go down that much if he loses a further $x whereas it'll go up a lot if he wins $x.

So it works both ways, when we (me and Phil that is, not the royal we (yes we’re chums now by the way)) are losing big, we don't mind losing a bit more for the chance to get out of it, and when we (royal we, Galfond doesn't talk about this) are winning big, we don't risk all our profits on a marginal decision to win a bit more.

It's something that comes with age and experience and even though I'm a pretty huge sucker for it now, I'm a lot better than I used to be. There's some people that you never see flustered about winning or losing. These people have small hEV coefficients. I envy those people in a way because they can handle the emotional swings of the game much better than me. But I'm not built like that (large hEV coefficient) and I'm fine with that.

Don't get me wrong, if I was a robot, I'd make a lot more money. All these decisions are to do with emotions and are basically turning down $ev (quitting games early, wimping out of profitable bluffs/shoves etc) and the more you can control your emotions and forget these things, the better. That is not to say I think they're bad things at all. They're all human nature, and totally normal and healthy emotions to have. Who wants to be a robot anyway? (Actually my Maths teacher from school said that it was his lifetime ambition to become as much like a computer as he could!). There's so much more to life than $EV - I'm lucky to be able to say that a huge proportion of my life I can say that I'm happy, and I'm 100% fine with not being those few bucks richer for that.

Click to see full-size image.

[LonOhRay]

Completely agree with your points and read them with a smile. I think my 'hEV' takes a hit if I know I miss spots or pass up on EV though.



I remember reading something a long time ago on 2+2 possibly in the archives. It was likely written by Galfond, Clayton, Noah or some other poker genius.

Spoke to Tom Langley and JB about it briefly but haven't got round to finding it.


Basically the pretense of it all was "hEV".

Demonstrated through a "hEV" graph.

To have neutral hEV in poker you need to literally win twice as much as you lose or book twice as many wins to be 0hEV.

By human nature we take losses a lot harder emotionally (wins don't feel as good as losses feel bad), and some psychologist ran the numbers did the tests and quantified it in a lab - it was referenced in the post.



Really interesting read and I'm going to look for it now.

#rambleover

[rfgqqabc]

Nit.





I go as far as ev=hourly. I've never played roulette live for more than £5 live, and had occasional BJ punt, but don't think its ever been more than £30 in total, and not even sure I've done it this year. As far as making the right decisions in poker, sometimes i can't help myself. As soon as the guy hesitated to 3b me when i had the 79cc, i knew i wanted to take off. It felt right, i felt like I'd either get him off it, outflop him etc, and it also felt like the right thing to do. I've never been one for holding back, I completely agree with the hEv thing, but in my regards, not making the move would make me unhappy. I once had a hand where i felt certain calling with JJ on AT9Ax was correct. I was so sure, but then i thought, its close, bankroll management, kinda thin, just let it go. I got shown a bluff. I still cant really explain why i folded. I was gutted as soon as I had. It wasn't even a massive amount of money, £120 or so, but for some reason i couldn't put the chips over the line and talked myself out of it. Its stuck with me for a long time.

[permanentquandary]

hEV

I've been thinking about this concept for ages now, but finally been pushed over the edge to write it up following two hands I played on the bubble of the LAPT Medellin side event and this brilliant blog from Phil Galfond which can be found here http://www.philgalfond.com/quick-update-fake-math-and-my-philosophy-on-being-a-logical-poker-player/

This blog confirmed a whole bunch of things I'd felt throughout my first two years as a poker pro, but goes against a lot of what I'd been taught in the past and I've always felt like some of the ideas are dumb or silly.

OK so we're on the pure bubble, 17 left, 16 paid. It's my last tournament in Colombia before I go off travelling. I've bricked the first two, so no cashes yet. It's a ~£750 buyin, I have 100% of myself. I think this is one of the most £ I've ever put in to a tournament before. I remember putting in £1k to play EPT Campione and selling the rest, and similar for IPT San Remo but I'd always been staked into stuff like this before, but since going on my own I reckon this is the biggest "punt" I've done. It's about the line to be honest, decided not to sell because it's just so so soft here, and I'd get flamed for the mark-up I feel I'd be worth!

So that's the setting and it causes me to make 2 what I would call "pussy folds". Now bear in mind that I'm definitely on the spewy side rather than nitty generally in my game, so both folds for some would be totally normal, but for me and most aggro tournament players, they're definitely on the tight side, if not plain bad folds in theory.

The details aren’t important, (it was folding 33 and A7ss in semi-standard 3bet shove spots), they were both probably marginally +EV shoves but I did get to thinking about quantifying some of the reasons behind turning down these +EV spots.

1) FLAG Equity. A colombian flag is seriously niche. Does anyone reading have a colombian flag? Didn't think so. It's really cool - yellow, red and blue (but more yellow than red and blue - even cooler). This is my last chance (possibly ever!) to get one. Bragging rights, and it really adds something to the HM page which is, I won't say cluttered (it's not) with GB flags. Wow really saying GB not UK anymore?

Click to see full-size image.

2) Local currency liquidity. Punting in some big donkaments basically put me through all my Colombian Pesos and not cashing would mean I'd have to either lose a small chunk converting $ cash or use my credit card, which I never like doing in foreign countries and may lose out on the exchange rate anyway. Mincash was 3million pesos (About £1.2k) which would've got me through the next couple of weeks travelling.

3) ICM. I'm sceptical about writing too much about this, for fear of highlighting my weak grasp of the technicalities of the concept, but basically bubbling is bad for our $ equity (it's 0 duh) and not bubbling is good so we can sacrifice a small cEV edge right now because it's actually the right thing to do.

4) hEV. (Hee-Vee)

noun
Happiness expected value. Quantifying or justifying non $EV factors that come into play when making decisions in life.

Finally to the point of the blog. I would've been really gutted to bubble. Morale would have taken a serious hit. It was the last chance for a cash like I said, so if I didn't then the trip is a financial failure. That makes me feel bad when planning future trips as most of the trips I've been on have been losing ones (Vegas, San Remo, Campione, Austria to name just the ones this year!) even though my Marbella score means I'm well up on trips overall. It also makes me feel bad for the rest of the night, tomorrow when I'm grinding the sundays alone in my hotel room and would probably loom over the rest of my travels, rather than even just a mincash which would make me feel like it was all worth it - we've got a flag, we've made a bit of $ and we've had a good time.

***

Soon after the bubble burst and I shoved A6hh in a marginal spot (got there vs AK obv) and 3bet shoved 22 in another close spot and got it through. Both were fine shoves, but I would've folded both had we still been on the bubble.

These feelings of being a "pussay" crop up quite regularly in my day to day poker life too. This brings me onto the concept of "booking wins".

I'm definitely more emotional than most about winning or losing. Probably more so than all my fellow professionals that I know well (except for Belton ldo). So I place high importance on going home happy - I like being happy. I like going to sleep happy. And I like waking up the next day happy. All of these things happen when I win nicely, and don't generally happen if I lose big. That's just me, I'm weird, sorry.

So when I'm up £1k in a 1/2 game and there's half an hour to go, I'm happy with that. That's a really good win for £1/2 right? And generally, for a person to win A THOUSAND POUNDS in a day, that's pretty great actually right? I mean muggles say earn on average £10 an hour, that's £80 in a day. My hourly equates to earning quite a bit more than that, but still, my EV for a session is nowhere near £1000. So when presented with an alright spot to fire a £800 river bluff last hand of the night, am I going to take it? Probably not! Don't get me wrong, if it's not close, I'll do it (nah I'm kidding, £800 with nothing, are you mental?!), but if there's a decision that's close, I'm definitely going for the cautious route to preserve the win, and preserve morale for another day. Playing poker professionally is tough on the emotions, for me it is anyway, so keeping morale high for another day is not something to be sniffed at. For those that play in the same cash games as me: This is all a giant level.

The same logic applies to when I'm having a big losing day. My hEV won't change much if I lose a few hundred quid more, but it'll be greatly restored and it'll feel like a win if I get out of it. Hence the odd £200 roulette spin, blackjack hand, or "let's 5b allin with K5suited and if it goes tits up try and make a flush" sort of play. Galfond touches on this idea when he talks about taking breaks when he feels he's not playing his best. He carries on because even his B or C game is still +EV in soft games and his hEV won't go down that much if he loses a further $x whereas it'll go up a lot if he wins $x.

So it works both ways, when we (me and Phil that is, not the royal we (yes we’re chums now by the way)) are losing big, we don't mind losing a bit more for the chance to get out of it, and when we (royal we, Galfond doesn't talk about this) are winning big, we don't risk all our profits on a marginal decision to win a bit more.

It's something that comes with age and experience and even though I'm a pretty huge sucker for it now, I'm a lot better than I used to be. There's some people that you never see flustered about winning or losing. These people have small hEV coefficients. I envy those people in a way because they can handle the emotional swings of the game much better than me. But I'm not built like that (large hEV coefficient) and I'm fine with that.

Don't get me wrong, if I was a robot, I'd make a lot more money. All these decisions are to do with emotions and are basically turning down $ev (quitting games early, wimping out of profitable bluffs/shoves etc) and the more you can control your emotions and forget these things, the better. That is not to say I think they're bad things at all. They're all human nature, and totally normal and healthy emotions to have. Who wants to be a robot anyway? (Actually my Maths teacher from school said that it was his lifetime ambition to become as much like a computer as he could!). There's so much more to life than $EV - I'm lucky to be able to say that a huge proportion of my life I can say that I'm happy, and I'm 100% fine with not being those few bucks richer for that.

Click to see full-size image.

I clicked quote just to be annoying.

I agree. If you are realistic about your self-control and know you are unable to prevent spewing after big losses, it is better to avoid what is a long term +ev play now so that you avoid what you know will be a much larger -ev spewing later if the play doesn't work out. But regardless of happiness if you are making decisions based on quantity of money and its real world value rather than quantity of betting units then you are not properly rolled for the game and your decisions every hand will be adversely affected.

[DMorgan]

Not sure why you'd feel that this is a bit silly.

What is silly is the people that take these decisions and try to justify them in terms of $EV. As long as you are aware of the fact that some of the decisions that you make are going to cost you money then thats fine, you're making an informed decision and its a free country.

Having your happiness tied to results though is something that can certainly be addressed and imo it is very much in your long term interest to do so. If losing gets you down, the reality of poker is that losing is never far away and lets be honest you haven't really experienced the more brutal side of MTT variance on your own $$, but you will and if its really going to get you down bricking 30 live MTTs on the bounce then that will obviously negatively affect your game to some degree and its a tough cycle to break in the midst of a brutal downswing. Addressing this sooner rather than later could end up saving you money and personal anguish

The thing about getting out at roulette or making spewy jams to get out really isn't what Phil was talking about at all. When you're playing your B and C games you are still +EV, and that is the pivotal point. Sometimes you've gotta accept that you aren't playing at a level to make maxEV decisions but being small +EV > not playing. Spacking it in to try and get out or punting at roulette are completely different. Making plays that you know are -EV in the hope to get out are pretty much never justifiable given that there is always another game tomorrow and therefore there is always a better spot coming along. Normally when we're talking about passing up spots in game to find better ones, that will be incorrect because making the small +EV play is better than folding. Here we're just talking about -EV punting where waiting for that better spot (which we know 100% is coming) is the difference between +EV and -EV plays. Needing/wanting to book a winning day/session is just a mental leak. The game never stops, so it is irrational to look at it on a day by day or session by session basis.

Justifying -EV plays to yourself in the hopes of getting out of a hole is a slippery slope

[zerofive]

had occasional BJ punt, but don't think its ever been more than £30 in total, and not even sure I've done it this year.

Too easy; don't feel great about it; FYP nonetheless.

[tikay]

That is an interesting & well-written piece, Alex.

This particularly caught my eye....

"....There's some people that you never see flustered about winning or losing....."

Some folks SHOW no emotion, but it does not mean they are not bothered. It may, or can mean that they just control their emotions better. What looks dafter than a grown man going off on a rant because he has lost a hand of poker, usually because he deems the winner to be a worse player than him? "He called me, what an idiot!". But there's the thing - the rules of society have changed out of all recognition in the last 10 or 20 years, largely because of the internet. (And I am NOT saying this is bad).

At one time, going off on a mindless rant would have been deemed a disgrace, a sign of weakness, an embarrassment. Now, it's almost a badge of honour, rather like "guess what, I got so pissed last night, I can't remember a thing". 

The world is changing so much, & so are the laws of society.

I enjoyed your photos from Colombia. Interesting that the apparel of poker players the world over is much the same. In Colombia, they speak a different language, earn much less, eat different, but headphone man is still there, & so are the kids proudly wearing their 'Stars Shirts, hats, & patches. What a thing that is, wearing the apparel of your fave online poker site, it reminds me of football supporters wearing replica shirts.

Nothing makes much sense to me any more.

Enjoy Colombia Alex, & stay safe please.

[zerofive]

Be quite interesting to see what PeeJay has to say about this. I once flatted a river bet versus him with a bad flush because to play the hand +$ev I'd have to raise-fold basically all my profit after I'd spent most of the session getting out of a hole. During the last couple of hands we'd lost a few players and now the remaining players that wanted seats on other tables started flocking. So, £1/2 game is about to break, I've been playing for 7 hours, I just want to book a win for a change and I've been grinding hard to show a profit for the night. I know what the best $ decision is, but I am going to be pretty upset if I have to raise-fold here and book a breakeven sesh when a win would definitely set me up in higher spirits for tomorrow's game.

hEV also stands for "headache expected value." This is basically reverse implied happiness, and ties in with what you're saying about winning £1k for the night. I was going to keep this bit to myself so as to maintain a small competitive edge, but fuck it I've woken up every morning this month feeling like I have a hangover 'cause I'm blowing chunks everywhere so there must be one or two holes in the theory. Similar to what LonOhray was saying.

When you are winning £1k (this assumes that £1k is a decent portion of your roll and a decent number of big blinds, Keith Johnson for example might have to throw some zeros on that figure) there are three possible outcomes herein -

Outcome #1 is that you stay and win more money. If we give hEV an x value, then we can look at it like this. £1k = x, but £1.1k DOES NOT = 1.1x. In fact most humans would have to get to another milestone to genuinely increase their x value here. It's definitely more accurate to assume that £1.5k is closer to 1.1x.

Outcome #2 is that you quit now and book a win. That was easy. You're at the cash desk and you feel great. This will positively influence the way you feel when you walk into the casino tomorrow.

Outcome #3 is that you start losing. Now to go back to our x value. Let's say we reached x at £500. We played on and got to £1k, which in a £1/2 probably feels about 1.5x. "Last orbit for me guys. Probably going to fold every hand anyway. Except these two aces of course! I'm all-in. Villain has kings! Wow it's all going my way tonight. King on the river?! Count his stack. £500 you say? Alright... Nice hand sir..." So now we're back to winning £500, but our x value has not reset itself. Even though we were x when we were winning £500 before, we are definitely not x anymore. In fact we are positively y. We're leaving this hand anyway, before our initial one-orbit curfew is over. Why did we stay and play when, even if we do hold there, we've emotionally left the game and our x value at £1k would only have reached 1.1x.

This all begins at the moment you think "I feel like booking a win today," and you look around for a chiprack. The minute you hear that voice, the way you emotionally view $ev situations has changed, you are therefore unbalanced and it's time to quit anyway.

The above does not apply when you've just stacked me in particular, though. My $ is reverse implied headacheEV, which is reverse reverse happiness and you will actually feel better by giving it back to me so I can eat.

[tikay]

That is an interesting & well-written piece, Alex.

This particularly caught my eye....

"....There's some people that you never see flustered about winning or losing....."

Nothing makes much sense to me any more.

Accidental irony?

Completely accidental, therefore not irony, I guess. Good spot though.

If I listed the stuff that makes less & less sense to me, I'd drown Alex's Diary, so I'll spare people that.

But I did witness a poker player wish cancer on the mother of another last night after the kid made a "bad call". In a £1.10 "Double Your Money", where the prize was a profit of eighteen shillings. (90p).

[DungBeetle]

"Needing/wanting to book a winning day/session is just a mental leak. The game never stops, so it is irrational to look at it on a day by day or session by session basis."

I don't think it is as simple as this.  We are not computers.   If you have the +£1k with half an hour left and end up £500 down with a marginal river shove late in the night you may go home frustrated and come back playing your B game in the session the next game.  If you pass up the marginal spot, book the win and come back playing your A game the next day then you'll be better off in the long run.

Yes it's not rational, but it's a fact of human nature.  Your post is correct if you can assume that a player's subsequent performance is completely unaffected by the outcome of the marginal play.

[SuuPRlim]

Yay! Well done Alex I've been saying stuff like this for years and got hit by abuse pretty much from the offset, also it's not nitty which is what some people think, it's just how the brain works, for e.g. the most common moan you'll here me come out with is how I "never quit at peak" it's annoying, up £5k then quit 25mins later winning £3.5k or something and everyone says to me "well it's one big session so don't worry" and It's not like I worry, I just check my HEM graph and see the down at the end and always think, "meh, should have just quit 30 mins earlier and be £X better off" it's obv not logical but it's exactly how I think every time, no amount of "all one session" comments will ever stop me thinking that.

If poker was "all one big session" and by aa big session it meant you were always playing with just short breaks then obv it wouldn't matter because it's all one session and various peaks and trophs in the session are fine, thing is though, it ISN'T one bbig session is it? It's lots of short sessions and in between each session is just as important as during. If ending one session cautiously to preserve mindset for the start of the next one (and ofc, the time in between) is something you feel is good for you then DEFO do it, how much £EV you really sacrificing anyways? prolly not that much if it's close. It's true to say the more experienced you get you prolly are less effected by this because as you get more and more used to coping with swings you'll find your outside life is less and less affected by poker results. If life is affected by poker results though, that doesn't mean you're weak or have any mental leaks, so many people in the world take their jobs home with them, usually just means that they care. Obviously as well, how much money you have will always affect this as well (that's just natural)

It's also a total myth the "the right play is the right play" I have said many times when I'm playing in big games "I'd defo jam this at $2/$4" the reason it's defo a Jam at $2/$4 online but I'm very hesitant to jam it at $50/$100 live is because it's close and I'm going to play 150,000 hands of $2/$4 this year prolly where such a move exposes me for $800, and likely to play about 500 hands of $50/$100 live where the same move exposes me for $18k - it's not that I'm "uncomfortable playing" my knowledge of poker has led me to (assumably) correct assuptions about the situation and I know I have a high variance, but profitable move available - I, now, as a proffessional decide if I WANT TO TAKE THE RISK OR NOT if I decide not, then that's fine. If it was all as cut and dry as what is and isn't profitable then it would be a way less complex game.

and +1

This particularly caught my eye....

"....There's some people that you never see flustered about winning or losing....."

Some folks SHOW no emotion, but it does not mean they are not bothered.

Gotta remember poker players are usually pretty competitive, most people who seem not at all bothered are actually very bothered but are pretty focused on winning and don't allow a) people to see they are bothered or b) the disappointment  of losing to cloud their focus. I think this is the way to be, if you were truly not bothered whether you won or lost I can only assume you'd be a bad poker player.