Prose from a Poshboy

[smashedagain]

Please tell me the Villan in this hand was 5 foot tall and bald head. Was it the same guy who put the wrong chips in to call a raise from Simon late on, he was held to the raise then when Simon 4 bet the guy jammed it back in Simons eye again. Sounds do much like its Harry the Piano.

[shipitonetime]

Those allergic to poker analysis, cover your eyes.



Analysis of this hand:

He raises hijack, I call with KQo and the chap from the hands above calls from the bb.

, bb checks, Simon checks, I bet 2100 into 5200. BB folds, Simon calls.

Simon checks, I check.

Simon checks. I bet 9000 into 9400. He shoves for 31000 total.

I really don't think he'd play AA or KK or AQ like this. Maybe up till the river, but I doubt he'd c/raise allin with those hands to my bet size.

6x? What 6x does he open? 67suited definitely - there's 67spades and 67clubs, so that's two hands. Might he play them like this? Perhaps. But with the bb in the hand and on such a draw heavy board with a vulnerable two pair, I'd expect him to bet the flop almost everytime. So I discounted them quite a bit. 68suited he might raise, again only two combos. Would he check/call the flop with bottom pair oop to me? Unlikely, he'd defo chose to cbet rather than c/call with bottom pair. Same with 56ss and A6ss, don't think he raises any another 6x.

So we've got 8combos of 6x, none of which we think he'll play like this.

QQ, 77, 66. One combo of QQ, 1 of 66, 3 combos of 77. With hands this strong, he's more likely to take this line than with 67 or AA, but still I'd expect him to bet the flop with these most of the time, but we did have a crazy dynamic causing us to play hands really weird vs each other, and I know he thinks I'm a bit of a monkey so probs expects me to bet that flop everytime when checked to. Why didn't he check/raise me then? We'd spoke quite a bit about check/raising flops as the preflop aggressor too. Seems like a great spot to try and level me with a flop c/raise? Also the bb in the hand was a massive station, surely a good spot to just get 3 juicy streets from him?

So basically the only value hands I think he can have are QQ, 66 and 77, 5 combos total. For the analysis I'll add in 3combos of the aforementioned 67/AA/A6 type hands that he's played very unexpectedly / badly imo

So that's 8 combos in his value range. (For ease of argument I'm saying he plays QQ, 66 and 77 like this EVERYTIME, I'd actually discount it at least 50%, leaving only 2/3 combos)

It's 22k for us to call to win a pot of 9k + 9.4k + 31k = 49400, So we're getting 2.25:1 on a call, meaning he only needs to have 3.5bluff combos for it to be a +EV call.

I'd have 16k behind if I called and lost at 400/800/100. Average was about 39k. So it's a big hit, and I always prefer to be getting a decent amount more than cEV neutral to make a call like this. So in this case, if I thought he had only 4 bluff combos, I'd fold, despite it being slightly +cEV.

However I really don't think it's close to that, although I couldn't name one specific hand he'd definitely play like this, there's a chance he plays many hands like this. Turning 88-JJ into a bluff, knowing I can have KQ/AQ here, playing a flush draw like this, 89, floated the flop with AKhh, T8hh etc.

Afterwards I was unsure about my call, but having done this analysis, I'm sure it's fine, and just seeing how few combos of bluff's he needs to have for it to be profitable has convinced me it was fine.

He had 77 and ended the day with 200k, I ended with nothing! I got my 16k in with JJ and lost to AQ. So I guess he won on the day, but it was a lot of fun and always a good learning experience playing with Simon, he plays so so good but different to lots of players, so it's never easy or straight forward, and he keeps you on your toes.

I think it's def a mistake for Simon not to bet a set here with the BB in the pot too. Surely going to lose a chunk of value long term.

[pokerfan]

River size analysis ?

[cambridgealex]

River size analysis ?

Mine?

[TL900]

alex's river size is fairly standard nowadays imo. To create the perception of a polarized (nutted/air) range without having one. Very effective online.

[Mondeoman]

Those allergic to poker analysis, cover your eyes.



Analysis of this hand:

He raises hijack, I call with KQo and the chap from the hands above calls from the bb.

, bb checks, Simon checks, I bet 2100 into 5200. BB folds, Simon calls.

Simon checks, I check.

Simon checks. I bet 9000 into 9400. He shoves for 31000 total.

I really don't think he'd play AA or KK or AQ like this. Maybe up till the river, but I doubt he'd c/raise allin with those hands to my bet size.

6x? What 6x does he open? 67suited definitely - there's 67spades and 67clubs, so that's two hands. Might he play them like this? Perhaps. But with the bb in the hand and on such a draw heavy board with a vulnerable two pair, I'd expect him to bet the flop almost everytime. So I discounted them quite a bit. 68suited he might raise, again only two combos. Would he check/call the flop with bottom pair oop to me? Unlikely, he'd defo chose to cbet rather than c/call with bottom pair. Same with 56ss and A6ss, don't think he raises any another 6x.

So we've got 8combos of 6x, none of which we think he'll play like this.

QQ, 77, 66. One combo of QQ, 1 of 66, 3 combos of 77. With hands this strong, he's more likely to take this line than with 67 or AA, but still I'd expect him to bet the flop with these most of the time, but we did have a crazy dynamic causing us to play hands really weird vs each other, and I know he thinks I'm a bit of a monkey so probs expects me to bet that flop everytime when checked to. Why didn't he check/raise me then? We'd spoke quite a bit about check/raising flops as the preflop aggressor too. Seems like a great spot to try and level me with a flop c/raise? Also the bb in the hand was a massive station, surely a good spot to just get 3 juicy streets from him?

So basically the only value hands I think he can have are QQ, 66 and 77, 5 combos total. For the analysis I'll add in 3combos of the aforementioned 67/AA/A6 type hands that he's played very unexpectedly / badly imo

So that's 8 combos in his value range. (For ease of argument I'm saying he plays QQ, 66 and 77 like this EVERYTIME, I'd actually discount it at least 50%, leaving only 2/3 combos)

It's 22k for us to call to win a pot of 9k + 9.4k + 31k = 49400, So we're getting 2.25:1 on a call, meaning he only needs to have 3.5bluff combos for it to be a +EV call.

I'd have 16k behind if I called and lost at 400/800/100. Average was about 39k. So it's a big hit, and I always prefer to be getting a decent amount more than cEV neutral to make a call like this. So in this case, if I thought he had only 4 bluff combos, I'd fold, despite it being slightly +cEV.

However I really don't think it's close to that, although I couldn't name one specific hand he'd definitely play like this, there's a chance he plays many hands like this. Turning 88-JJ into a bluff, knowing I can have KQ/AQ here, playing a flush draw like this, 89, floated the flop with AKhh, T8hh etc.

Afterwards I was unsure about my call, but having done this analysis, I'm sure it's fine, and just seeing how few combos of bluff's he needs to have for it to be profitable has convinced me it was fine.

He had 77 and ended the day with 200k, I ended with nothing! I got my 16k in with JJ and lost to AQ. So I guess he won on the day, but it was a lot of fun and always a good learning experience playing with Simon, he plays so so good but different to lots of players, so it's never easy or straight forward, and he keeps you on your toes.

Meh i mean the thought process and analysis is fine in theory meanwhile in the real world you're pretty much always beat here.  Whats wrong with your analysis is he is virtually never bluffing here - it doesn't matter that he can have 89, 810 (in fact he doesn't have these as he'd just bet the river not check raise) whatever combinations you want to give him - he's not check raising the river with a bluff.  You could easily have a 6 and do you think he really expects you to fold any value hand on the river?

[George2Loose]

Agree with Keith. He is NEVER bluffing ESP cos you've just had the geeky chat u had at the break

[George2Loose]

To continue the musical theme, he's played u like a fiddle. Take note in future

[smashedagain]

Team eureka ganging up on ex eureka

[George2Loose]

Herbie you'd never call there

[Eso Kral]

Team eureka ganging up on ex eureka

Alex is still part of team Eureka he is just not in the stable of K & K Jase!!

[smashedagain]

Herbie you'd never call there

You are right.

[smashedagain]

Team eureka ganging up on ex eureka

Alex is still part of team Eureka he is just not in the stable of K & K Jase!!

Oh sorry. I thought Keith was team eureka .... Carry on then nothing to see

[Junior Senior]

Deadman played it pretty much perfectly for max value.

[zerofive]

To continue the musical theme, he's played u like a fiddle. Take note in future

This, bass-ically.