Prose from a Poshboy

[cambridgealex]

It would be more relevant in sports though where outcomes are based on human influences where things like form and confidence are pretty key no?

[mulhuzz]

need a genius to confirm, but don't think necessarily true that ROIs are normally distributed across a given field size??

[redarmi]

need a genius to confirm, but don't think necessarily true that ROIs are normally distributed across a given field size??

I'm not by any sense an expert on this stuff but ROI's have to be related to each other in an individual tournament.  That would mean that they are more likely to be normally distributed or similar. 

[rfgqqabc]

Question:

A typical £1000+70 tournament. with say 500 entries

Some players positive  ROI some neutral ROI some negative  ROI.

Show what you think is the distribution of the population in say 10% ranges.

 5 players 200% roi
 10 players 190% roi
200 players 100 roi

should add back to total investments.

Very curious to see what people think the distribution looks like.

This clearly explains everything for me.  

Click to see full-size image.

http://i.imgur.com/2dhSykt.png

People can't lose more than 100%. More people lose than win. People can win more than 100%. The average player loses slightly due to the rake. There are more likely to be 50 10% winners than 40 20% etc etc. In reality it might be different due to small winners not being able to beat travel costs but thats a solid theoretical view imo.

[mulhuzz]

Click to see full-size image.

 

[PutYouOnAK/AQ]

My other brother Mark is very down, after 7/8 stages of interviews, assessment days, getting through 3000 people for 15 places, he's basically pure bubbled his dream job the other day. He's graduating this summer and needs a job pronto. He's back to square one now but will get there, he's never been one to be down in the dumps about anything, he'll pick himself back up.

Not many people land their dream job straight out of uni!  What sort of job is he looking for?

OK not dream job, but a graduate scheme for the market leader of the field he is interested in / has work experience. It was with "Marsh" - insurance broker and risk adviser. My Dad works for Willis who do the same thing, just have slightly smaller market share than Marsh.
 

Alex with regards to your brother has he considered Underwriting rather than Broking?  Its a fantastic job and generally can make more money in the long term, it certainly requires more work in some parts when calculating risks.
Also if your brother has some spare time at the moment it would be well worth him starting his CII exams.  If he had just 1 of the 3 exams required for this certificate then he would stand a much better chance of getting a job than other graduates as they have to be taken when in theses companies anyway.

[cambridgealex]

My other brother Mark is very down, after 7/8 stages of interviews, assessment days, getting through 3000 people for 15 places, he's basically pure bubbled his dream job the other day. He's graduating this summer and needs a job pronto. He's back to square one now but will get there, he's never been one to be down in the dumps about anything, he'll pick himself back up.

Not many people land their dream job straight out of uni!  What sort of job is he looking for?

OK not dream job, but a graduate scheme for the market leader of the field he is interested in / has work experience. It was with "Marsh" - insurance broker and risk adviser. My Dad works for Willis who do the same thing, just have slightly smaller market share than Marsh.
 

Alex with regards to your brother has he considered Underwriting rather than Broking?  Its a fantastic job and generally can make more money in the long term, it certainly requires more work in some parts when calculating risks.
Also if your brother has some spare time at the moment it would be well worth him starting his CII exams.  If he had just 1 of the 3 exams required for this certificate then he would stand a much better chance of getting a job than other graduates as they have to be taken when in theses companies anyway.

Thanks, will pass this on.

My Dad was in underwriting for 15 years then went into broking for the last ~10

[GreekStein]

I'd be fascinated to see your ROI for all £500+ tourns you've played lifetime. Then I'd like to see it with best 5 and worst 5 removed.

Why? This would only skew things the wrong way imo.

In a pretty small sample of tournaments that Alex has played lifetime (which live player has played a decent sample?!) so taking out 5 best scores would just make him or any other player look bad.

This is kind of the point tho, should I think Rasta is good value at 1.5/1.6 ?

Possibly you're missing the point here, which would be a surprise as you'd be among my picks for top 3 shrewdest forumites, but Greekstein is right. He's (probably accidentally) used the key word 'skew', in that mtt results are not normally distributed. I get your general point, but maybe taking away something like 10 downside for every 1 upside outlier would yield more accurate results.

As someone with a relatively unbiased sample of hundreds of live mtts (through the stable), I'd estimate live mtt ROIs for good players in fields of 2-500 in the £300-£1650 bracket are around 75%.

What a condescending arse you are.

Please note, these words are not accidental.

[dwayne110]

It's interesting to how people have reacted to the price setting of the mark up. I really don't understand how Alex can ever be at fault for offering a price, whether it's 1.5, 1.8, 2.0, etc. He proposed a price, we can choose to purchase at this price or not. He's then reduced the price to attract demand, which again is entirely sensible from a business point of view. The goal of a professional poker player is to maximise their ROI and achieving the highest possible MU price contributes towards achieving this. If we don't agree with the price we don't buy, as with any other product or investment?

[SuuPRlim]

Question:

A typical £1000+70 tournament. with say 500 entries

Some players positive  ROI some neutral ROI some negative  ROI.

Show what you think is the distribution of the population in say 10% ranges.

 5 players 200% roi
 10 players 190% roi
200 players 100 roi

Hi Lee *waves*

200 people have 100% ROI's? we must be on cloud fucking cookoo land here I don't even think there are 20 in the whole country.

And I promise you no-one on the planet has a 200% ROI in this tourney.

[PathFinder]

It's interesting to how people have reacted to the price setting of the mark up. I really don't understand how Alex can ever be at fault for offering a price, whether it's 1.5, 1.8, 2.0, etc. He proposed a price, we can choose to purchase at this price or not. He's then reduced the price to attract demand, which again is entirely sensible from a business point of view. The goal of a professional poker player is to maximise their ROI and achieving the highest possible MU price contributes towards achieving this. If we don't agree with the price we don't buy, as with any other product or investment?

This.. Don't think it needs to go any further. No need for insults etc etc.. Now I will await the next TR

[nirvana]

It's interesting to how people have reacted to the price setting of the mark up. I really don't understand how Alex can ever be at fault for offering a price, whether it's 1.5, 1.8, 2.0, etc. He proposed a price, we can choose to purchase at this price or not. He's then reduced the price to attract demand, which again is entirely sensible from a business point of view. The goal of a professional poker player is to maximise their ROI and achieving the highest possible MU price contributes towards achieving this. If we don't agree with the price we don't buy, as with any other product or investment?

tbf, not that many people have reacted badly to the chosen mark up, just silently not bought as you suggest they might do.

There has been a discussion, largely, about why it didn't sell with the normal speed these requests have typically sold at. I only contributed, for example, in response to Alex's proclaimed befuddlement, not because my pants are in any way twisted by the original sale price.

I think the very short timescale it was available was probably a big contributory factor, another couple of days and I'm sure more would have sold.

[rfgqqabc]

It's interesting to how people have reacted to the price setting of the mark up. I really don't understand how Alex can ever be at fault for offering a price, whether it's 1.5, 1.8, 2.0, etc. He proposed a price, we can choose to purchase at this price or not. He's then reduced the price to attract demand, which again is entirely sensible from a business point of view. The goal of a professional poker player is to maximise their ROI and achieving the highest possible MU price contributes towards achieving this. If we don't agree with the price we don't buy, as with any other product or investment?

I think the original argument came about because professional players could take advantage of the informational disadvantage and sell packages that are outright -ev which is abuse of the marketplace.

[smashedagain]

One thing fucked up the 1.5 thread pure and simple. That was tittys first comment and had it not appeared then I am pretty confident Alex would have sold that package.

Titty is Alex's mate and I don't think he would have made the post if he thought it would stop Alex getting the 1.4/1.5. They are both mates and Andrew IMO posted it tongue in cheek ( even tho he probably thinks Alex ain't worth 1.5 ) and that then prompted others to jump on the band wagon.

Without wanting to sound too much like Tikay, The diary here is one of the best things on blonde and love him or hate him we all follow Alex's story. So what if he wants to charge an extra .2 or so to take advantage of the goodwill at blonde.

Who on blonde contributes more than him other than me and who has a better record at Dtd beside him than Rastafish, Wadey and Keys. Alex should be able to ask for and get 1.5 IMO.

Had it not been for Titty's post he probably would have sold out. I flamed someone for their lack of results and asking for a markup on a staking thread once and regretted it afterwards because despite people putting flame away, its not what they want really ( I can't remember who it was but got a feeling it may have began with a "K" so could have been Kinboshi, killerkliksby or kushkushkin but either way I owe em an apology in person  ).

[titaniumbean]

you really are a tit jase.....