Would be keen to hear your thoughts on your river shove in that bvb hand on Day 1 in the deep stack. The one where you turned the A into a bluff.
Sure.
I open bvb vs Tom Ambler with
(forget which level it was, but probs 2.5x) he peels quickly
I cbet
about 35% pot and he peels
I thought for a while about this, decided to bet again, because Tom would expect me to continue with diamonds a decent %, and definitely now barrel clubs, as well as some airballs/ 67/78 gutshots etc. I was thinking he could still continue with pocket pairs, and both FDs as well. Checking would be fine, and perhaps better, but decided if i check Ax there vs Tom, it would make barrelling turns in our future battles that day (table breaking quite late on) more difficult.
river, I check (standard imo) and he bets 10k into about 8k, he has 20k behind, I have 60k, avg stack is 35.
Decided his range was: any club flush (expected to get floated by JTcc type hands 100% on that flop), 9x and 55, 88, A9, AND some bluffs (diamonds mainly, but a nonzero amount of ambitious dbl floats).
At I guess I would estimate he had a flush or a 9 most of the time, but perhaps house 15%, bluffing 10%, that sort of thing.
People don't ever jam over overbets as a bluff, overbets are usually polarised to nuts/air, so are usually responded with a call/fold, unless that player has the nuts ofc... I don't think I've ever actually tried to bluff over an overbet, and thought Tom would have a similar ideas about overbets....
The fact I had the
obviously is kinda key - he can't have nut flush and reduces combos of AA/A9.
Decided to go allin thinking that he would fold a flush a lot, a 9 and obviously all the times he's bluffing. I'm shoving 30k to win 18k so needs to work 62% of the time, so if my estimate of his range is correct, then he'll need to fold about 70% of his flush/9x combos, which I thought was very reasonable.
If I had a full house or a big flush, I would 100% play it like this. He doesn't know that, but I thought he'd think that I'd check a house on the river there (since he has missed diamonds, Ax, 9x, nothing or club flush - a range against which checking a house is clearly superior). So I can rep all those hands, which although are few combinatorically, my perceived bluff combos are even smaller, I thought...)
Also, if I lose I still have an average stack, whereas he is calling off his tournament. I know he's staked on blonde for it so might be less likely to hero it off.
He snap called with
, so I obviously had the wrong ideas about how he'd perceive my range there, so in hindsight think my bluff was pretty bad. ie, if he's snap calling with a hand I expected him to fold, something's gone wrong in my thought process.
Oh well, was a fun / interesting hand and good for the old image of course...
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