NFL Betting blog

[LeKnave]

Got matched on Mario Manningham first td @ 20.0

any1 like anything?

[TightEnd]

Danny Woodhead NE 1st TD 25/28-1

Just expecting Belicheck surprises in his offensive game plan, and maybe the ball goes to unexpected places in the first quarter

Kevin Faulk NE running back at 80-1 on the same principle


(now watch Welker scream in for the first....)

[Matt50]

Really looking forward to this game, should be fairly close.
Some bets for interest:

£50 New England to win 8/11 (Coral)
£10 Walker first touchdown 15/2 (Coral)
£2 Ochocinco first touchdown 50/1 (betfair)
£2 Ochocinco MVP 200/1 (betfair)

[Horneris]

Really looking forward to this game, should be fairly close.
Some bets for interest:

£50 New England to win 8/11 (Coral)
£10 Walker first touchdown 15/2 (Coral)
£2 Ochocinco first touchdown 50/1 (betfair)
£2 Ochocinco MVP 200/1 (betfair)

15/2 seems a good price on Ian to get the first TD.

[Horneris]

Ok so far not gone for much in the super-bowl market but had nibbles at these:

Pats £400 @7.6 WOW NICE BET, GL BOSS
Colts £140 @26 HAHA SHOCKING, THEY CAME LAST!
Chargers £150 @13.5 LOL TERRIBLE, SAME OLD CHARGERS, COULDN'T EVEN FINISH WITH A WINNING RECORD
Lions £50 @40 GREAT EFFORT, COULD GO ALL THE WAY NEXT YEAR
Bears £40 @50 ROFL WTF?

[bobby1]

I've just watched 'America's game' on Sky Sports, this episode was about the Giants Superbowl win against the Pats and if you want summat to get you in the mood I highly recommend it, even if its just to see David Tyree catch the ball with his head one more time.

[ChipRich]

I've just watched 'America's game' on Sky Sports, this episode was about the Giants Superbowl win against the Pats and if you want summat to get you in the mood I highly recommend it, even if its just to see David Tyree catch the ball with his head one more time.

yeah, thats quality.

BIG BLUUUUUUUUUUUEEEEEEE

[Horneris]

Braaaaaaaaaaaaaaaady.

[bobby1]

blimey, i got a little sick in my mouth there as the thought' homoerotic' sprang to mind.

[adnmdv]

So I don't really know how well NFL works, but just having a look tonight because it's the Superbowl.

Liking the look of Rob Gronkowski FTD @ 9. For it to be >EV0 he needs to be in for about 21% of their First Touchdowns, his Anytime Touchdown record for them is well over 21%, nearer 30% this season. It looks like he's a slight doubt but it overwhelmingly likely to play. I'm assuming here I've missed SOMETHING unless the FTD market for the biggest match of the year really is inefficient, so what have I missed here? Is he way above the mean Touchdowns for his position perhaps? (i.e. running above 'EV'?)

[gatso]

So I don't really know how well NFL works, but just having a look tonight because it's the Superbowl.

Liking the look of Rob Gronkowski FTD @ 9. For it to be >EV0 he needs to be in for about 21% of their First Touchdowns, his Anytime Touchdown record for them is well over 21%, nearer 30% this season. It looks like he's a slight doubt but it overwhelmingly likely to play. I'm assuming here I've missed SOMETHING unless the FTD market for the biggest match of the year really is inefficient, so what have I missed here? Is he way above the mean Touchdowns for his position perhaps? (i.e. running above 'EV'?)

if you need him to be over 21% in one market why are you deciding it's value because he's 30% in a different market?

[adnmdv]

I assumed that if he's a starter, and his anytime is 30%, that implies his first is >30% (I'm not looking at the anytime market, just the stats)

[gatso]

I assumed that if he's a starter, and his anytime is 30%, that implies his first is >30% (I'm not looking at the anytime market, just the stats)

how can he score the first td in more games than he scores in?

anytime td is him scoring at anytime during the game, first td is him scoring the first td in a game. anytime is always going to be significantly higher than first

unless I'm completely misunderstanding your question

[redarmi]

Think you have misunderstood slightly.  He scores 31% of all of the td's they score so if he is a starter then he is slightly more likely to score their first TD because some of the players that makeup the anytime stats don't neccesarily start.

In response to your question adn I was slightly surprised to see him so big and think it is because he will probably play slightly less snaps due to doubt about his fitness but also TE's block as well as receive and in this game Belichek figures to have a slightly different gameplan to the one he has had all year which has involved his TE's receiving.  Also at 31% he has wayyyy overperformed for a TE so it is slightly to revert towards mean at some point.  All that said it isn't an awful price just it is more mrginal than it appears at first.

[Linux]

1st giant - Beckum
1st Pat - Branch