Golf Betting 2012

[bobby1]

This is starting to look like it might be messy on the first two days.

As Ace said above Mick is bemoaning how soft the course is and there is more rain forecast for the first two days. What might be crucial is there are possible thunderstorms on both forecast for Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon. The problem there is that the late starters on Thursday might be stop/start avoiding the thunderstorms if they arrive, this will  then mean they have to come back Friday morning, that is the coldest part of the week, playing a soft course in cool temperatures will make it play even longer on Friday morning. If the thunderstorms appear on Friday afternoon and the late starters that day end up finishing their rounds on Saturday morning then the forecast there is for a warm morning, which would be easier to play than Friday morning.

Its hard to allow for any of that tho, as the thunderstorms might miss or come after play has finished but it might be that as it stands now it looks like an early Thursday/late Friday might have you in the right side of the draw given the forecast at the mo. Interestingly both Mickelson and Rory have been given the potential  coffin draw, out in the last 2 groups on Thursday for the TV coverage and that's probably why they have drifted on BF overnight. Its v tricky tho.

The forecast for Sat and Sunday is good so it might come down to how well you fair with the thunderstorms the first two days.

[bobby1]

Elliotts first round leader fancies from today.



Two first round leader bets today for a total of 3pts.

FIRST ROUND LEADER - JUSTIN ROSE - ONE POINT EACH WAY - [1/4 odds 1-5] - 25/1 , BF/TO, 22/1 B365, SPBET, WH - only 16/1 BO, SKY.

1. Justin has played Augusta six times, and three times he has been 1st or T1st after R1 - with a 67 in 2004, 69 in 2007, and a 68 in 2008 when we backed him at 33/1 in this market. So he has plenty of ‘previous’ as a fast starter on this course.

2. In his last 4 starts he has had opening rounds of 66-69-67-and 69 so he has started fast in all his recent tournaments.

3. He is out in the morning in the 10th group [at 2.29pm GMT] so the course will not have had too much ‘traffic’, and he should get the best of the conditions before the wind possibly picks up in the afternoon.

IN SUM - In the best form of his life with 4 wins since the start of 2010, Justin is one of our outright bets and he also merits support in this market. He won for us at 33/1 in this market in 2008 and could do so again at 25/1 this week.


FIRST ROUND LEADER - TREVOR IMMELMAN - HALF POINT EACH WAY - 90/1 , 80/1 B365, BF/TO, BO, PP, LA, CO, SPBET.

1. Trevor at Augusta in the last 4 years has form figs of W-20-14-15.

2. In 3 of those last 4 years he has started 68 [2008],69[2010], and 69 [last year]. After R1 he was T1st with Justin Rose in 2008, and T7th last year.

3. He was 11th at Bay Hill in his last start so he’s in solid form, and he’s still a good putter as he’s 17th for birdie conversion, and 4th for putts from 10-15 feet.

4. He showed he can be a fast starter as last year he shot in the 60s in 7 of his last 10 R1s including a 64, 66, and 67 twice.

5. He plays in the same 3 ball as Justin Rose and they could both post sub 70 rounds.

IN SUM - A course specialist and a former winner Trevor could well reward a small ‘nibble’ at

[tikay]

Flushy told me last night that unless you back Rory or Tiger, you have all throwing away your money......

[Karabiner]

I've had a dabble EW on Robert Karlsson @ 100/1 to be first round leader.

He's out early, has some very good course form, and seems to be in an easy 3-ball with Ben Crenshaw.

[claypole]

Very rare you see a arb situation,amazed to get £250 McIlory at , can lay at 7.4/1 now on Betfair. They are holding prices, just done 3 Will Hill shops

[horseplayer]

this is my betdaq book

ogilvy + £3501.09

cabrera + £355.51

dufner + £1261.29

wagner + £2567.49

h stenson + £3215.59

garrigus + £4263.04

e molinari + £4597.09

dyson + £6141.54

mike weir + £10k (must have been drunk

field - £114.41

pretty happy as most are lower priced now than when i backed them (except cabera) have covered rory with hills for my stake on the others

gd lk all

[Matt50]

My bets for this week:

Outright:
Jason Day @ 40/1
Bubba @ 55/1
Bo Van Pelt @ 80/1 (backed before the earlier post)
R Fowler @ 100/1

Top Debutant:
Garrigues @ 16/1

Top Englishman
Justin Rose @ 7/2

[Royal Flush]

Is everyone on a diff planet to me? Who else can win other than Rory and Tiger?

[Karabiner]

Is everyone on a diff planet to me? Who else can win other than Rory and Tiger?

Probably.

Tiger still has to prove that he can hit the draw consistently as I doubt he can win hitting that fade around Augusta.

Rory obviously has a great chance but is under quite a lot of pressure to win after last year.

[Horneris]

Is everyone on a diff planet to me? Who else can win other than Rory and Tiger?

Well in the last 8 years or so Mike Weir, Charl Schwartzel, Angel Carbrera, Trevor Immelman and Zach Johnson have all won it. Assume they were all like 40s plus.

Yes, Tiger wasn't at the top of his game for the last couple (still isn't tho imo) and Rory wasn't around for some of them but there is more in depth talent nowadays.

[doubleup]

FIRST ROUND LEADER - TREVOR IMMELMAN - HALF POINT EACH WAY - 90/1 , 80/1 B365, BF/TO, BO, PP, LA, CO, SPBET.

went for him along with yang and quiros.  Was also going to go for fred C at 100, but can't get boylesports to work properly.

[doubleup]

http://www.masters.com/en_US/players/pairings/index.html

wtf with these photos - they seem to be caricatures.

[LeKnave]

Joined in the Garrigus top Debutant @ 14/1, if anybody needed futher convincing, he will be teeing off @ 1.01 GMT 2moro (a price he will be seen trading at later this week)

GL everybody, should be a great week, course looks in sick nick.

[hector62]

I have used my winnings from Hunter Mahan last week and invested them wisely in Luke Donald, Brandt Snedeker and my main man Hunter again.

[bobby1]

The very early starters tomorrow look sure to get the best conditions of the day. Friday morning still going to be much colder so tougher to play then too.

The hour by hour is available here.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/recreation/golf/hourbyhour/1028887:5?begHour=5&begDay=96

Far too many variables with the weather for me in the outright, so going to hold fire pre tourney and see how it goes in running.