An Ape and a notebook, how long will it take?

[paulhouk03]

Well that sucks...

Played really well in the 30fo... only had one sticky spot where we open a pair, get peeled by someone who I 'thought' had been playing ok.

Qxx,

We check, he checks..  - ok his range his sets, weak Q's and worse one pair hands..

K

We lead small-ish, setting up nice river sizing for his stack if we brick, he
A

We set him in and he snaps....

omfg.  - J10 anyone? anyone have any Jacks and Tens? Offsuiteds? Yes pls.

How do you put him on that range when he has only called and checked on a dry? board?

Also what pair did u have

Unsure if just trolling every post I make today? Or if I'm just being paranoid?

It's a range I put someone on in this situation in this population as the majority of the hands he will do 'this' with....

Makes sense for most people to bet Qx here when they've called a UTG raise and been checked to in a tournament.  In a cash game I will regularly see someone check AQ on this board for pot control, which is again fine - but should struggle to call two big bullets ott and river if so.


What range would you think he has when he calls a UTG raise from a 'tight' player (played only a couple of hands in a few levels) and then checks this flop?

Clearly from the J10o he does turn up here with he has a lot of **** when he checks back flop, even if he somehow has Kx ott... he will be folding river almost always for his tournament life here.

We had 77 which is the bottom of our range preflop, but with his pre and flop action I think it is going to be more profitable to bet and shove good turn + rivers than to try and get value on QxxK.

agree/ disagree?

Not trolling
Tbh I'm just a rec who likes to jolly around and don't think to the lvl u do

But I think u betting the turn and jamming river is pretty bad
there are a lot more easier spots where u can pick up easier chips then getting hero chips. After all they are worth the same.

Just my 2p

Fwiw this is my fav diary by far.

[jgcblack]

Pretty gutted at the moment...

The low continues, I really feel like I'm putting every 'control' in place possible to make sure I dont 'blow' or do anything silly while I'm feeling like this (by 'this' I mean like no matter what I do I'm either 'overplaying' one pair or I'm going to lose with every medium strength hand).

I made sure at every point tonight I had a calculator ready with the BB count of each table to make sure we didn't overshove or overjam too big.  I've got some ranges from some friends to help with making sure I don't make any 'simple' mistakes in <30bb play.

I finally 'bought' in to the ISPT day1 online, and managed to find a 'good' spot early on with  otb with a HJ raise and a CO call.  We call, happy to play in position, likely to go 4 ways often, sometimes 5 ways with a suited A and over 100bb's - not ever planning on doing anything 'crazy'.


FLOP
 

check, OR cbets 1/3 pot, CO calls and we squeeze to 2.5x, fold, fold, quick call.

TURN


check, we cbet 40%pot and he cjams.......

FMFMFLFMFLFMFLFMFLFFOFJDOFJFML!
fold and carry on.

Goodbye 1/3 of our stack early on.


Turns out from subsequent hands that the villain in the hand above just 'had it' every single time... which probably just means he had  or whatever else would be super nutted on this board.
Clearly, in the past I could have done something stupid like called off because 'we have outs' or some misguided and completely incorrect logic.

Glad we didn't do anything crazy and still feel like his 'range' will have a lot of trouble on this flop AND this turn specifically.

He 'should' have a bunch of fd's, some pair and fd's, some 10x, plenty of 2p, set and overpair combos... many of which should struggle to do anything except cf or csighc, cf river.



I'm feeling pretty frustrated now, but I'm reminded and re-reading the article Rexas put in his diary only a short time ago.

"the times when its toughest, the times when you have to drop down in stakes, change games or find another way to 'keep going'... these are the times when you harden and prove yourself worthy of your profession, when you keep going and the others give up"
(paraphrased roughly)

I want to keep going, I think I'm going to play some $0.50 sit and go mtt's to focus and work on my shortstack strategy after this week.

I need to find somewhere to remind myself that I can play, that despite the comments, criticism, battering and flat out abuse I've received in recent times....
It is do-able.

To remember where I came from, how far I've come and how I used to 4bt/call 4d5d because "i'm live and getting odds" or whatever rubbish I said back then.


I know I'm not the best, I'm don't even believe at the moment that I ever could actually 'be the best'.  But I hope I can be good enough, I hope that I can keep moving forward, if only slowly....

I know I'm rambling but its helping, I'm feeling the ..... (i want to say anger, but I'm not sure that's the right word) je ne se qua ..... flow out of my fingers, into the keyboard.
(in before all sorts of quoting tekkers)


I have just found a BBC documentary about 'Ice Age Giants'... perfect.


nn all, lets get up tomorrow - get in to work early as we agreed, get a good breakfast, eat the lunch we bought today at the supermarket, and come home, ready to play properly, solid and strong fundamental NoLimit Texas Holdem in order to win another E300 seat and then play through to Day2 in WemBerLeeeee.

x

[jgcblack]

Not trolling
Tbh I'm just a rec who likes to jolly around and don't think to the lvl u do

But I think u betting the turn and jamming river is pretty bad
there are a lot more easier spots where u can pick up easier chips then getting hero chips. After all they are worth the same.

Just my 2p

Fwiw this is my fav diary by far.

Well hopefully this diary is liked for more than just "how much spew has this **** pulled out today".


But like I said previously, I don't think its more a case of 'are these hero chips', but instead...
What can he possibly call twice on vs my 'range' on a QxxKA runout??

I genuinely think most players would have a rough decision with AQ, which means we're getting called by the ..... well lets work it out.

I've got Flopzilla, and although I'm not a FZ pro yet... I'm trying to get to grips with it.
I HAVE NOT DONE THESE NUMBERS PRIOR TO TYPING

So I've been 'nice' and given him a pretty 'non spew' range preflop of 'fishy cards':
44-QQ, 89s+, J9s+, Q9s+, K9s+, A9s+ (possibly not?), JTo-KTo, QJo-AJo, KQo, AQo - All in a preflop calling range VS UTG open
AA, KK, AKs, AKo would be 3bt a large % (we won't ignore it, but weight it in a 3:4 'would 3btpre') so therefore only 1/4 of this range is given.

This presents us with 157.75 combinations in his TOTAL preflop calling range (call it 158)

Then he checks back with a reasonable % - weak made hands, some nutted hands, most weak 'unmade' hands... (Seems reasonable)
(i'll give him 1/4 again of tp+/ <set hands that he checks back otf)

TP+, <set leaves 137.5 = 158-138 = 20 hands for value that are tp+/<set


So out of his 158 pre flop range, 20 hands are value that he checks back possibly some % (not large ime), which leaves 138 combinations of 'air'/ weak made hands/ sets

He has a ratio of air + weak made hands : sets  of   15.3 : 1

Clearly if I've done this right he has a LOT of air on the turn... Some of this range has now however, turned into TP.  (on the K turn).

KTo, KJo, AKo, K9s, KTs, KJs, AKs - 29.25 combinations (25% of AK because would 3bt pre most of the time)


So now we're looking at TP+,<set of 20+29 +9 (KQo/s) vs 80 combinations of 'air'/ weak made hands vs 9 sets


I would assume he now folds most of his weak made hands, some draws, some Qx and all 'complete' floats.

Thus giving him a turn range of -
44, 88, 99 (25%), 10's (25%), QQ, KK/ AA (25%), JTo-KTo, QJo+, KQo+, AKo (25%), T9s, J9s+, Q9s+, K9s+, ATs+, AKs (25%)

This is 126.75 (127) with a weighting of tptk+/<set : weak made hands/ air/ tp : sets
                                                              12       :                   105              : 9.75    = 126.75  (127)

                                                              1.3     :                    11.7             : 1.1


Therefore, on THIS specific river.....

His range changes again, to the following.


Straight - 12.6%
Set - 8.28%
two pair - 16%
Top pair - 11.8%
Middle pair - 21.3%
Weak pair - 23.7%
no made hand - 6.31%


We're betting Pot to win Pot which means we need him to fold more than 50% for it to 'make money'.  Clearly this is a 'cash game' mentality... and remembering this is a range that had "no completely random 'fish' spew" to start with (unlikely vs a lot of players).

so if we're betting 8500 to win 8500 and he has to call 50% to stop us 'making money'. 

Then he has to call with
Straights - 12.6%
Sets - 8.28%
Two pairs - 16%
1.2% = 1.3 combinations of top pair hands.



So effectively we're saying he has to call all the way down to a single suited AJ (6).

It would take a lot of convincing for me to think that someone will call with AJo on this river.


However, I will admit I thought his range would be much weaker than this otr.

Effectively I didn't expect him to call without top two, set or straight - which still makes up

12.6 + 8.28 + 1 = 21.88 (22) % of his hands on the river.


If I've managed to somehow get to this point correctly (really no idea if I have) then I looks like there is a 28% 'edge' if he only calls with his very best hands.  If he calls with AK and AQ and KQ (unsure) as well as all sets and straights then its 52 of the combos of the 127 he gets to the river with.

Even then its only 40% of the time.




I guess by doing this I've realised that actually this runout isn't as good as I thought for me if he's 'conservative'.  However if he's even remotely worse than we've estimated then it gets better and better.

Either way, dirty get had a draw on the turn and binked..... - eugh!




(i look forward to seeing how I was wrong, tomorrow...)

[edgascoigne]

This might come across as a troll, and it's really not intended that way but here goes.....

How to beat the London 1/2 games: hold the good ones, fold the bad ones.

Hope to see you crushing soon. Sometimes we are our own worst enemies, a phrase I feel qualified to state

[rfgqqabc]

This might come across as a troll, and it's really not intended that way but here goes.....

How to beat the London 1/2 games: hold the good ones, fold the bad ones.

Hope to see you crushing soon. Sometimes we are our own worst enemies, a phrase I feel qualified to state

Bet flop with 77.

Don't overbet/bluff rivers in a 3e/30e/300e comp. I have a bunch of friends who make money with a thought process 5x simpler at 50x the stakes. Many of my solid friends would never dream of playing 77 this way.

[LonOhRay]

It's honestly too much to read

Just fold A6cc on 789ss 3 ways you have 0 equity


Not playing 5knl in a line up of regs, so unneccessary all that effort you've gone to

You're assuming too much they're just clicking the buttons and having a feeling you can't assign ranges that are going to be close to correct.

How many times have you flopzillad oracle tools equity blah blah ranges vs "recs" and come up with the concolusion " they can't have that "



Not going to attempt to read it, just don't bluff at every opportunity or expect things to happen in these things

He isn't folding AT on river let alone two pair

[NoCardDSC]

It's honestly too much to read

Just fold A6cc on 789ss 3 ways you have 0 equity


Not playing 5knl in a line up of regs, so unneccessary all that effort you've gone to

You're assuming too much they're just clicking the buttons and having a feeling you can't assign ranges that are going to be close to correct.

How many times have you flopzillad oracle tools equity blah blah ranges vs "recs" and come up with the concolusion " they can't have that "



Not going to attempt to read it, just don't bluff at every opportunity or expect things to happen in these things

He isn't folding AT on river let alone two pair

This.

But just bet the flop, and the if you're not going to, just don't go mental.

[DMorgan]

I genuinely think most players would have a rough decision with AQ

Having played pretty much every 30e sat since they started a few weeks ago I'd estimate that about 4% of the field would believe that they have 'a decision' with AQ here.

It would take a lot of convincing for me to think that someone will call with AJo on this river.

You are 100% getting snapped off by AJ here Jon.

Such a common theme in so many of your blowup hands that you way way overestimate the amount of fold equity that you have vs the villains that you're playing against.

[LonOhRay]

Just watched a friends video on RIO where he's playing at the Super Tuesday final with cards face up. All his vids are full of great phrases but this one is relevant to JB so so so much.

Playing at a table with 3 weak players to his left and two good to his right, one of them is lechuckpoker who is Igor Kurkanov - part of the German crew who are winning all the high stakes and high rollers at the moment.

The whole theme of the final table, which should be obvious anyway, was to stay out of his way as much as possible and play pots vs the fish, and that's also somewhat true for Igor vs him. He did so and ended up winning.

-

He compared the final to playing a video game where you get to choose the setting - beginner, medium and legendary or to that effect.

Beginner is just play pots with fish and tighten up and don't battle the superior players.
Legendary is playing pots oop vs good players and getting in 3/4bet pots in close spots.

You are always playing on Legendary everyday of the week and never want to play on beginner modes when the rewards are just the same.
In this 30euro freeze out and EVERY game you are playing, play on beginner mode vs weak players and use their weaknesses against them - they don't fold pairs at any stage = bet bigger for value and bluff less, almost 0 multi streets or without equity.
Legendary is trying to make people who don't have a fold button, fold.


You're doing a Max Heinzelman 8betting the best player on the table with A6o as opposed to a Keith Hawkins who picks his spots carefully and avoids unnecessary high varience spots when there are easier chips to be had by folding. (Just from reading the thread)

[LonOhRay]

Cliffs

Play on beginner mode and drop legendary mode

[pleno1]

It's honestly too much to read

Just fold A6cc on 789ss 3 ways you have 0 equity


Not playing 5knl in a line up of regs, so unneccessary all that effort you've gone to

You're assuming too much they're just clicking the buttons and having a feeling you can't assign ranges that are going to be close to correct.

How many times have you flopzillad oracle tools equity blah blah ranges vs "recs" and come up with the concolusion " they can't have that "



Not going to attempt to read it, just don't bluff at every opportunity or expect things to happen in these things

He isn't folding AT on river let alone two pair

yeh this, even though you pm'd me to look through the math it would be a waste of time, worry about that stuff later when youre battling ike. For now go through HH's of tournaments and find fps and try to omit it.

[TL900]

Just watched a friends video on RIO where he's playing at the Super Tuesday final with cards face up. All his vids are full of great phrases but this one is relevant to JB so so so much.

Playing at a table with 3 weak players to his left and two good to his right, one of them is lechuckpoker who is Igor Kurkanov - part of the German crew who are winning all the high stakes and high rollers at the moment.

The whole theme of the final table, which should be obvious anyway, was to stay out of his way as much as possible and play pots vs the fish, and that's also somewhat true for Igor vs him. He did so and ended up winning.

-

He compared the final to playing a video game where you get to choose the setting - beginner, medium and legendary or to that effect.

Beginner is just play pots with fish and tighten up and don't battle the superior players.
Legendary is playing pots oop vs good players and getting in 3/4bet pots in close spots.

You are always playing on Legendary everyday of the week and never want to play on beginner modes when the rewards are just the same.
In this 30euro freeze out and EVERY game you are playing, play on beginner mode vs weak players and use their weaknesses against them - they don't fold pairs at any stage = bet bigger for value and bluff less, almost 0 multi streets or without equity.
Legendary is trying to make people who don't have a fold button, fold.


You're doing a Max Heinzelman 8betting the best player on the table with A6o as opposed to a Keith Hawkins who picks his spots carefully and avoids unnecessary high varience spots when there are easier chips to be had by folding. (Just from reading the thread)

Good post, I watched this video too its pretty good and everything Dave says here is so true and what you need to do.

[jgcblack]

Really, no offence to everyone who reads or has replied - but AAAARRTGGGGGHHHHGHDGJDFJGSDJFSDJ¬!¬!!!!!!!!!!!!

Do you have any idea how often I raise/call, check then fold QQ on Kxx, or 10's on QJx, Axx, AKJ?
AK on Qxx or just cf AQ on 2610?
cbet/ fold JJ on 567 or raise fold on 336910cccc?

I AM PLAYING REALLY SIMPLE WHERE I CAN 95% OF THE TIME NOW, possibly more...

I DID HOLD THE GOOD CARDS AND FOLD THE BAD CARDS IN LIVE POKER, STOPPED BLUFFING FISH
STILL LOST EVERY COMBO DRAW/ KK VS AJ aiotf Jxx, MISSED FD OVER FD LIKE 5 TIMES FOR WHAT WOULDVE BEEN HUGE POTS (relative to stakes)

I AM NOT TRYING TO MAKE EVERY HAND A WINNER!!!!!

I STOPPED 'THAT' MONTHS AGO....

did no one read my 300 hands or did I not post them?
We grinded 4 levels of 92o, A4o, K6ss and resisted every temptation to 'just open this once'
We finally find KK in the SB and rejam over a CO open, getting a fold.
NEXT HAND we find   and rejam again over a Fish 'light open' (had 56o, K4hh etc a lot...) and a call behind.  OR snaps with 88 and we find   Jdx but still can't win....

I'm really NOT just blowing anymore or spewing... most hh's have had value hands, with the J high one being the exception.
Unless I was 'really lucky' I had the guys range spot on and got in 100bb's with J high.... AND WAS CALLED BY WORSE! (guy has tell on big bet sizings)


I'm getting cut and crushed and slapped and told to 'hold the good cards, fold the bad ones'...

I AM!


We've bust every 3/30 ISPT with a couple of flips, but mostly losing 70/30 or 80/20's...
We bust the only other ISPT day1 when deep with QQ vs AQ for a day 2 30k stack.

I have learned and have listened...
Am running around 10 buyins under EV at 50nl, its not a lot, but when I'm shot taking with a 10bi roll it makes it hard.

I've potentially got a good RB deal on Ipoker so will be looking into that, as with that this month I'd be BE while running under EV, not ideal but obv better than losing.

I have now earned/ bought Goldstar status from stars and can have a T-shirt....
You have no idea how happy I am, thank you pokerstars.


Sorry for morning rant but I Skype messaged like 10 people last night and not one has even bothered to help check the maths or tell me where I went wrong.
 

[nirvana]

Sometimes we win. Sometimes we lose. Sometimes we play well. Sometimes we play like cretins. Its cards brah, stop being such a drama queen

[edgascoigne]

I DID HOLD THE GOOD CARDS AND FOLD THE BAD CARDS IN LIVE POKER, STOPPED BLUFFING FISH
STILL LOST EVERY COMBO DRAW/ KK VS AJ aiotf Jxx, MISSED FD OVER FD LIKE 5 TIMES FOR WHAT WOULDVE BEEN HUGE POTS (relative to stakes)


I'm getting cut and crushed and slapped and told to 'hold the good cards, fold the bad ones'...

I AM!
 

Well, if you keep doing it, you will win. Maybe not today, maybe not even tomorrow, but you and I both know that doesn't change the approach you must take.

I have faith.