Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

The NBA Conference semi-finals involving our bets get underway today.



Cavs v Bulls

Clippers v Rockets

in what are effectively the quarter-finals

our bets

NBA Championship   Cavaliers   7/2   100   £50 e/w 1/2 1,2
NBA Championship   Chicago Bulls 8/1   40   £20 e/w 1/2 1,2
NBA Championship   LA Clippers   12/1   40   £20 e/w 1/2 1,2

our teams are currently 2nd,3rd and 4th favourites for the title behind the golden statr warriors

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/winner

Big assistance last night with the number 1 seeds Atlanta getting beat at home in their first game of their series against Washington.  Cavs or Bulls will be a big fav against Washington in the East finals should they manage to upset the Hawks.  We are gtd 2 teams in the final 4 the way the draw has run out. 

[TightEnd]

we're guaranteed one team, the Cavs or Bulls

the clippers might lose their series

[Chompy]

Labour to win most seats has now hit 5-1 on the machine.

Scuy have a handicap, Labour +16.5, 10-11 each of two. We liking this?

[arbboy]

we're guaranteed one team, the Cavs or Bulls

the clippers might lose their series

Sure sorry.  I am on the Rockets personally when it looked last summer like they were about to acquire Chris Bosh before Bosh resigned with Miami.  Was assuming fred was on when it isn't.

[TightEnd]

Labour to win most seats has now hit 5-1 on the machine.

Scuy have a handicap, Labour +16.5, 10-11 each of two. We liking this?

personally i think its great value but i am flying in the face of weight of money the other way

closer than 16 seats if you asked me

con max is 290

sporting index are assuming they hit the top of the reasonable expectation

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.4888412/uk-general-election-seats-markets

i can tell you there is nothing in private polling, yet, that backs that up

[Chompy]

As well as the name, there is also a lot of speculation surrounding the godparents.

Prince George had no fewer than seven when he was christened.

But who are the favourites for our new princess?

According to William Hill these are the latest odds: 1/5 Princess Beatrice, 1/5 Princess Eugine, 1/2 van Cutsem, 1/1 Peter Phillips, 5/4 Tiggy Pettifer, 6/4 Sam Waley-Cohen, 6/4 William Van Cutsem, 2/1 Alice St John Webster, 2/1 Alicia Fox-Pitt, 2/1 Eddie Van Cutsem, 2/1 Pippa Middleton, 2/1 Prince Harry, 2/1 Thomas van Straubenzee, 3/1 Mike Tindall, 4/1 Lady Iona Douglas-Home, 5/1 Earl Spencer, 6/1 Zara Phillips, 8/1 Guy Pelly, 16/1 Ben Fogle, 25/1 Victoria or David Beckham, 100/1 Boris Johnson, 100/1 David Cameron


Done a bit of online research. 6-4 Waley-Cohen and 2-1 Alicia Double-Barrelled both seem interesting.

Also,

10:47 am

Press pack

This is the scene outside Kensington Palace at the moment.

Captured by a member of the public and posted on Instagram, the photo shows a media pack waiting to hear news of the royal baby's name.

It is thought we will find out the baby's name later today, after Kate and William inform the Queen.

[DungBeetle]

Labour to win most seats has now hit 5-1 on the machine.

Scuy have a handicap, Labour +16.5, 10-11 each of two. We liking this?

Spin bullish on Tories now.  Seat supremacy is 20-26.  Feels high to me.

[TightEnd]

Only 3 days to go - guardian projection:

CON 274 seats
LAB 270
SNP 54
LDEM 27

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/feb/27/guardian-poll-projection

avg forecasts.

CON—279
LAB—268



Expect another 20-30 projections before polling day, then final forecasts...then the exit polls at 10pm thursday

[arbboy]

Polls missing the usual silent tory vote which betfair/spin prices don't i expect.

Tighty can we have an update on your view for 1/8 hung parliement and 4/6 under 3.5 ukip seats? Really liking the ukip unders now the tories are so strong to win most seats.

[TightEnd]

Polls missing the usual silent tory vote which betfair/spin prices don't i expect.

Tighty can we have an update on your view for 1/8 hung parliement and 4/6 under 3.5 ukip seats? Really liking the ukip unders now the tories are so strong to win most seats.

it has to be hung. favourite/longshot bias in any current quote about a majority

UKIP

Clacton a UKIP certainty

Farage odds on in S Thanet but the Ashcroft poll last week had him behind. Assumption is the big names like him, clegg in sheffield etc get home

thurrock is a three way marginal, ukip favourite. ukip performed well in council elections, prime ukip territory and because both lab/con are in with a shiot ukip won't be hit by tactical voting

thats 3. i am on 2

4 would be rochester. mark reckless. expect ukip to lose this. reckless is not popular, and recent surveys suggest a lot of protesting tory by-election voters will return home on thursday

beyond that in places like castle point, great grimsby, skegness etc ukip can be no more than hopeful

on all we are seeing, a modest squeeze of the ukip vote because of lab/snp concerns and their ground game being less well developed (and smaller in numbers than the big parties) then the final result should be 2-3 seats

that said, the commentator ian dale went out this morning and said he expected a completely surprise ukip win somewhere (ukip at 10-15% is of course new territory so who knows) and a single constituency...that could make 4...but not sure how you can forecast it

[arbboy]

Polls missing the usual silent tory vote which betfair/spin prices don't i expect.

Tighty can we have an update on your view for 1/8 hung parliement and 4/6 under 3.5 ukip seats? Really liking the ukip unders now the tories are so strong to win most seats.

it has to be hung. favourite/longshot bias in any current quote about a majority

UKIP

Clacton a UKIP certainty

Farage odds on in S Thanet but the Ashcroft poll last week had him behind. Assumption is the big names like him, clegg in sheffield etc get home

thurrock is a three way marginal, ukip favourite. ukip performed well in council elections, prime ukip territory and because both lab/con are in with a shiot ukip won't be hit by tactical voting

thats 3. i am on 2

4 would be rochester. mark reckless. expect ukip to lose this. reckless is not popular, and recent surveys suggest a lot of protesting tory by-election voters will return home on thursday

beyond that in places like castle point, great grimsby, skegness etc ukip can be no more than hopeful

on all we are seeing, a modest squeeze of the ukip vote because of lab/snp concerns and their ground game being less well developed (and smaller in numbers than the big parties) then the final result should be 2-3 seats

that said, the commentator ian dale went out this morning and said he expected a completely surprise ukip win somewhere (ukip at 10-15% is of course new territory so who knows) and a single constituency...that could make 4...but not sure how you can forecast it

Backing under 3.5 ukip 4/6 seems much better bet to me than evens under 2.5.  Basically makes exactly 3 seats around a 9/1 shot which must be too big therefore the under 3.5 4/6 looks too big to me (most firms are 4/1 albeit with loads of margin)

[Teacake]

Only 3 days to go - guardian projection:

CON 274 seats
LAB 270
SNP 54
LDEM 27

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/feb/27/guardian-poll-projection

avg forecasts.

CON—279
LAB—268



Expect another 20-30 projections before polling day, then final forecasts...then the exit polls at 10pm thursday

I really can't see SNP taking as many as 54 despite what the polls say. The swing won't be uniform, there will be any element of pro Union tactical voting to keep SNP out, there will be an element of incumbency effect and unusually in Scotland a shy Labour vote. SNP top end for me is 48, Labour line for me is 8 giving Labour low to mid 270s based on the above.

[TightEnd]

andy murray wins his first clay court title, ATP Munich

revised odds for the french

[TightEnd]

Polls missing the usual silent tory vote which betfair/spin prices don't i expect.

win=most seats



i just can't see that these days with pollsters conducting so many online and phone polls (ie not face to face) why the tory voter should be as shy in advance as 1992 for example.....

only three days to find out

[engy]

chance of a 147