Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

Well, another good day for Team Sky today in the TdF even though Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo managed to claw back some time. Hopefully, Castroviejo won't be so doggedly determined on the slopes of the Plateau de Beille tomorrow. Saying that, there is a price that I find really attractive in tomorrow's Stage 12:

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/tour-de-france-stage-12/winner

First off, whereas today it was more or less obvious that a breakaway would succeed (and nigh on impossible to predict a winner ... certainly not at value), I'm going to stick my neck out and declare that tomorrow's stage will be won by a GC contender, ie. someone currently in the Top 10.

If we look at Stage 10 to La Pierre-Saint-Martin, we see that at the beginning of the climb, Movistar attempted to shell out as many Sky riders as possible by forcing the pace on the early steeps. This tactic failed. All that it achieved, is that it knackered Herrada and Izagirre, and allowed 4 Sky riders to follow their wheel (Froome, Thomas, Porte and Poels). Sky (or rather Poels) then took over the pace-setting with about 10km left, isolating Valverde and Quintana from Movistar, and dropping some serious GC threats (eg. Rodriguez). Once Poels had finished his turn on the front with about 8km left, Valverde twice tried to get the jump on the Sky train, but didn't seem to have the explosiveness to make the gap stick. Instead, Thomas brought him back, before Porte decided to put down the hammer with 7km to go, leaving us with a front three of Froome, Porte and Quintana. Now the important part...

Click to see full-size image.

http://www.steephill.tv/players/youtube3/?title=Last+15+Km+of+Stage+10+-+Finishing+Climb&dashboard=tour-de-france&id=RGea1vfYscE&yr=2015

With 6.5km to go, about 1km out of Col de Labays, Froome attacked. He did this because he knows that on medium gradients of between 5-7% (ie. the blue sections) he is very difficult to catch. Quintana managed to stay within range for about another 1km, but the elastic finally snapped with 5.5km left as Froome settled down into time-trial mode and sped away to victory.

Now let's look at tomorrow's stage:

Click to see full-size image.

The Plateau de Beille is one of the hardest climbs in this year's Tour ... at the end of possibly the hardest stage. As you can see, there are no blue bits. This means that Froome will find it a lot harder to distance pure climbers like Contador and Quintana, who can stretch the elastic and come back to Froome's wheel at a steady pace. Not to worry though, because Quintana doesn't have much of an attack to speak of so won't be a threat till about the last 3km. Contador (if his condition is good) is another story.

My bet is that Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo will play it safe today, letting Sky do most of the work on the Plateau de Beille, before attacking with Valverde and Contador respectively at the steepest point about 7km from the finish. I do not believe that these attacks will succeed. Poels and Porte will be tasked with reeling them in while Froome patiently keeps Quintana on his wheel. However, Froome can't afford to just let Quintana (and perhaps Contador) ride his wheel most of the way to the top, so he has to force Movistar (and perhaps Tinkoff-Saxo) to a decision. The key is Geraint Thomas. Currently sitting in 5th position, Thomas is 54sec behind Quintana in 3rd, just 4sec behind Valverde, and 1sec ahead of Contador. If Sky lets Thomas go on the attack with about 5km to go, Movistar will have to make a decision about whether to stick with Froome or defend a podium place. It's perfect bait, and I think it gives Geraint Thomas the opportunity to ride away with the stage victory at a more than generous 100/1.

Recommend £5 each-way on Geraint Thomas to win Stage 12 of the TdF @ 100/1.

This might well be the best written recommend in TFT history.

Fantastic stuff, hope he wins.

[Marky147]

Perish to think how much they'll let me have on...

What's the max?

£9.56 for me.

[The Camel]

Is ew 1/4 123 really the way to go?

Win only surely? How many realistic winners are there in this stage CWS?

[Karabiner]

Perish to think how much they'll let me have on...

What's the max?

(£33.88 each way sounds like a lot)

If you could stick a Lady Gidiva EW on for me I would be most grateful.

[Tal]

Perish to think how much they'll let me have on...

What's the max?

(£33.88 each way sounds like a lot)

If you could stick a Lady Gidiva EW on for me I would be most grateful.

One deep sea each way booked. Sort out after the win tomorrow.

[Karabiner]

Perish to think how much they'll let me have on...

What's the max?

(£33.88 each way sounds like a lot)

If you could stick a Lady Gidiva EW on for me I would be most grateful.

One deep sea each way booked. Sort out after the win tomorrow.

Absolut gent. thank you sir.

[Newportlad]

Paddy now into 80/1 on Thomas!

[Karabiner]

Is ew 1/4 123 really the way to go?

Win only surely? How many realistic winners are there in this stage CWS?

You know me Keith I do what I'm told.

Subservient just like Tikay.

[tikay]

Win or lose, that is a wonderful write up, thanks Wetty.

[cheapwetsuit]

Is ew 1/4 123 really the way to go?

Win only surely? How many realistic winners are there in this stage CWS?

It's a good question. I'd guess maybe 8 tops, including the possibility of one or two surviving from a breakaway. My main reason for suggesting an e/w bet is that if tactics do not go according to my plan, then in all likelihood, Thomas will not be far off a podium place, as he will not be willing to relinquish his top 5 spot given the form that he is in.

great writeup as usual CWS, goodluck.

+1



Done you a £5ew with Padraig @ 125/1, Tighty.

Thanks for all the kind comments. Good luck us.

[The Camel]

Is ew 1/4 123 really the way to go?

Win only surely? How many realistic winners are there in this stage CWS?

It's a good question. I'd guess maybe 8 tops, including the possibility of one or two surviving from a breakaway. My main reason for suggesting an e/w bet is that if tactics do not go according to my plan, then in all likelihood, Thomas will not be far off a podium place, as he will not be willing to relinquish his top 5 spot given the form that he is in.

great writeup as usual CWS, goodluck.

+1



Done you a £5ew with Padraig @ 125/1, Tighty.

Thanks for all the kind comments. Good luck us.

Was laying in bed thinking about this (because that's the sort of guy I am) and decided betting ew in mountain stages of the TdF is completely different to traditional ew spots.

If you are right about the tactics and Thomas is allowed (and able) to attack, it doesn't really matter how many potential winners there are, he is very likely to come 2nd or 3rd if he doesn't get the outright win.

[TightEnd]

Warwickshire began their final day at Durham needing 130 to win with 7 wickets left

It wasn't going to be an easy task, against the leading wickettaker in the country Chris Rushworth and colleagues including Graeme Onions

It was overcast and humid

Onions dismissed Sam Hain early and it was 138-4 chasing 265

then Laurie Evans, well set on 70 was dismissed by Rushworth caught behind

158-5 and Durham were favourites

experienced pair Tim Ambrose and Rkki Clarke took it to just before lunch when Ambrose was out, caught in the slips

192-6, the ball moving around. not easy

lunch came and immediately afterwards Clarke fell , lbw to Onions and Woakes went, lbw to Rushwroth

227-8

38 needed, or 2 wickets

At this point the experienced and useful tail order batsman Jeetan Patel came together with fast bowler Milnes



Some edges through the slips, some lusty hitting and some luck saw them through to the victory to raucous cheers from the smattering of away fans

Click to see full-size image.

The win meant Warwickshire stayed in touch with the top of the table

It also kept Middlesex in second, though Yorkshire even shorn of their 4 England players, look likely title winners

the division one table

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/county-championship-division-one/table


Warwickshire director of cricket Dougie Brown:

"This was a much-needed win for us and we just have to keep chipping away. But it is unlikely that Yorkshire will slip up.

"Losing the eighth wicket straight after lunch wasn't ideal. There were a lot of nerves watching on the balcony, but Patel has done it before and Milnes showed a lot of maturity for someone making his way in the game.

"It was always going to be a tough day and whenever we started to put a partnership together they found a way to take a wicket. It was a bit like our T20 performances - we scrapped and got over the line."

[cheapwetsuit]

Cycling update...

There is a strong 22-rider breakaway at the moment (with Rodriguez, Meintjies, Navarro and Fuglsang), but Sky are using Luke Rowe and Ian Stannard to keep the gap inside of 6 minutes. So far so good.

[tikay]

Cycling update...

There is a strong 22-rider breakaway at the moment (with Rodriguez, Meintjies, Navarro and Fuglsang), but Sky are using Luke Rowe and Ian Stannard to keep the gap inside of 6 minutes. So far so good.

The breakaway group seem to be getting further ahead, can they keep that pace going?

[BigAdz]

Very happy with the Goosen start. Sure he won't be leading at the end of the day, but looking at the weather he won't be far off, and best of the forecast is for tomorrow afternoon. All good news.
  
Most of the picks are doing well. Tiger. not so much.

Remind me. Who suggested Tiger?!