Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

I'm a little confused about what to do

We have a £250 or so forward book

We have dustin, rose, oosthuizen, casey, westwood, stenson, furyk and snedeker at 6 to 8 places top prices

i can see Hills have pushed prices out today

in the top ten we do not have

spieth
fowler
scott
day
bubba
sergio

why scott over any of these others? hills top price on all

[doubleup]

Speith is so short that he begins to move into the range where the "extra" each-way places are less valuable,

Day can't possibly be a good each-way bet with health doubts

It's going to be windy and I'm not convinced Bubba is at his best in windy conditions

Fowler ok but he's shortened after his win on Sunday played well at a Windy Gullane.

Sergio slightly out of sorts but good open record

Scott top 5 last 3 opens and 4th at Chambers Bay (although iffy prior to that), seems to play well in the wind.

So imo Scott is the best of the bunch we haven't backed, next Fowler.

[TightEnd]

thanks, thats what i was after

16 Jul 2015 - The 144th Open Championship - Tournament Winner - Tournament Winner

Adam Scott @ 25/1  EW @ 1/4 1-6

Stake : £30.00 (£15.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
498.75
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001372/F



Now then, does anyone know anything about any of the amateurs?

9 runner market

e/w 3 places

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/open-championship/top-amateur

specifically is any amateur 16-1+ compared to the others round here?

[Doobs]

Speith is so short that he begins to move into the range where the "extra" each-way places are less valuable,

Day can't possibly be a good each-way bet with health doubts

It's going to be windy and I'm not convinced Bubba is at his best in windy conditions

Fowler ok but he's shortened after his win on Sunday played well at a Windy Gullane.

Sergio slightly out of sorts but good open record

Scott top 5 last 3 opens and 4th at Chambers Bay (although iffy prior to that), seems to play well in the wind.

So imo Scott is the best of the bunch we haven't backed, next Fowler.

I agree on Scott and Day.  Scott was the biggest bet I had this morning and I didn't back Day.  I think Fowler at 20/1 must be fine too. Sergio I wouldn't want the 40/1 win only, but 10/1 6 places looks good to me.  Think we can miss the rest.  If we back Fowler and Sergio make it smaller than Scott say 10 e/w and 5 e/w respectively. 

I backed Speith earlier in the year after Sir Chompy's epic post so no need for me to top up, but the 2/1 6 places isn't that far from Betfair is paying on 5 and the 8/1 beats them. 

[TightEnd]

your bets (1)

Single - 2015 The Open

Rickie Fowler - |Tournament Winner|

Odds: 20/1

Each way : 1/4

1 lines at £10.00 per line

Total Stake for this bet: £20.00

Potential Return:£270.00

Time : 15/7/2015-15:17

Receipt No:O/142640973/0000943


your bets (1)

Single - 2015 The Open

Sergio Garcia - |Tournament Winner|

Odds: 40/1

Each way : 1/4

1 lines at £5.00 per line

Total Stake for this bet: £10.00

Potential Return:£260.00

Time : 15/7/2015-15:18

Receipt No:O/142640973/0000944




both Ladbrokes

[TightEnd]

as we should have finished now, here is the TFT Open book for tikay to be aware of as he watches

8/7/2015   bigadz   betfairsportsbook   7/18/2015   golf   the open   patrick reed   66/1   30   £15 e/w 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
7/8/2015   jamier-host   betvictor   7/18/2015   golf   the open top 20 finish   lehman   28/1   5      
9/7/2015   doobs   betvictor   7/18/2015   golf   the open   furyk   100/1   20   £10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6
7/10/2015   bigadz   betvictor   7/18/2015   golf   the open   Johnson   14/1   30   £15 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6
7/10/2015   bigadz   betfairsportsbook   7/18/2015   golf   the open   Casey   33/1   30   £15 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
7/10/2015   doobs   betfairsportsbook   7/18/2015   golf   the open   Stenson   20/1   30 £15 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
7/10/2015   newportlad   betfred   7/18/2015   golf   the open   Oosthuizen   25/1   30   £15 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6
7/13/2015   doobs   betvictor   7/18/2015   golf   the open   westwood   90/1   10   £5 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6
7/13/2015   doobs   betfairsportsbook   7/18/2015   golf   the open   Rose   20/1   20   £10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
7/13/2015   doobs   nuros   7/18/2015   golf   the open   Snedeker   50/1   10      £5 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7
7/13/2015   tightend   betfair   7/18/2015   golf   the open   Jaidee   340   5            
7/14/2015   swinebag22   betvictor   7/18/2015   golf   the open top south african   goosen   16/1   20 £10 e/w 1/5 1,2,3
7/14/2015   swinebag22   betvictor   7/18/2015   golf   the open top asian   jaidee   13/2   20   £10 e/w 1/5 1,2,3
7/13/2015   doobs   williamhill   7/18/2015   golf   the open   scott   25/1   30            £15 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6
7/13/2015   doobs   ladbrokes   7/18/2015   golf   the open   fowler   20/1   20            £10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6
7/13/2015   doobs   ladbrokes   7/18/2015   golf   the open   garcia    40/1   10            £5 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6

that's £330

if we brick that lot, we can move forward towards August and the football season!

[Actonbeech3]

Might be a bit later for TFT, but i cant help think Billy Horschel is massively overpriced at 150/1. Reigning Fedex Cup Holder, been in relatively good form and has travelled well in the last few years without bringing home the gravy. Links golf should suit his game, and he had an up and down week in the Masters. Plays well in the wind, and is a great character to boot so i for one will be having no trouble cheering this yank on to victory at those prices!

[doubleup]

He's only 150-1 at the books who don't do EW, so better on the exchange where you can trade out a bit if he getts a good start.

[cheapwetsuit]

Well, another good day for Team Sky today in the TdF even though Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo managed to claw back some time. Hopefully, Castroviejo won't be so doggedly determined on the slopes of the Plateau de Beille tomorrow. Saying that, there is a price that I find really attractive in tomorrow's Stage 12:

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/tour-de-france-stage-12/winner

First off, whereas today it was more or less obvious that a breakaway would succeed (and nigh on impossible to predict a winner ... certainly not at value), I'm going to stick my neck out and declare that tomorrow's stage will be won by a GC contender, ie. someone currently in the Top 10.

If we look at Stage 10 to La Pierre-Saint-Martin, we see that at the beginning of the climb, Movistar attempted to shell out as many Sky riders as possible by forcing the pace on the early steeps. This tactic failed. All that it achieved, is that it knackered Herrada and Izagirre, and allowed 4 Sky riders to follow their wheel (Froome, Thomas, Porte and Poels). Sky (or rather Poels) then took over the pace-setting with about 10km left, isolating Valverde and Quintana from Movistar, and dropping some serious GC threats (eg. Rodriguez). Once Poels had finished his turn on the front with about 8km left, Valverde twice tried to get the jump on the Sky train, but didn't seem to have the explosiveness to make the gap stick. Instead, Thomas brought him back, before Porte decided to put down the hammer with 7km to go, leaving us with a front three of Froome, Porte and Quintana. Now the important part...

Click to see full-size image.

http://www.steephill.tv/players/youtube3/?title=Last+15+Km+of+Stage+10+-+Finishing+Climb&dashboard=tour-de-france&id=RGea1vfYscE&yr=2015

With 6.5km to go, about 1km out of Col de Labays, Froome attacked. He did this because he knows that on medium gradients of between 5-7% (ie. the blue sections) he is very difficult to catch. Quintana managed to stay within range for about another 1km, but the elastic finally snapped with 5.5km left as Froome settled down into time-trial mode and sped away to victory.

Now let's look at tomorrow's stage:

Click to see full-size image.

The Plateau de Beille is one of the hardest climbs in this year's Tour ... at the end of possibly the hardest stage. As you can see, there are no blue bits. This means that Froome will find it a lot harder to distance pure climbers like Contador and Quintana, who can stretch the elastic and come back to Froome's wheel at a steady pace. Not to worry though, because Quintana doesn't have much of an attack to speak of so won't be a threat till about the last 3km. Contador (if his condition is good) is another story.

My bet is that Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo will play it safe today, letting Sky do most of the work on the Plateau de Beille, before attacking with Valverde and Contador respectively at the steepest point about 7km from the finish. I do not believe that these attacks will succeed. Poels and Porte will be tasked with reeling them in while Froome patiently keeps Quintana on his wheel. However, Froome can't afford to just let Quintana (and perhaps Contador) ride his wheel most of the way to the top, so he has to force Movistar (and perhaps Tinkoff-Saxo) to a decision. The key is Geraint Thomas. Currently sitting in 5th position, Thomas is 54sec behind Quintana in 3rd, just 4sec behind Valverde, and 1sec ahead of Contador. If Sky lets Thomas go on the attack with about 5km to go, Movistar will have to make a decision about whether to stick with Froome or defend a podium place. It's perfect bait, and I think it gives Geraint Thomas the opportunity to ride away with the stage victory at a more than generous 100/1.

Recommend £5 each-way on Geraint Thomas to win Stage 12 of the TdF @ 100/1.

[Omm]

great writeup as usual CWS, goodluck.

[Marky147]

great writeup as usual CWS, goodluck.

+1



Done you a £5ew with Padraig @ 125/1, Tighty.

[Tal]

Yes, Wetty!

Fred is on with Patrick Parr 3 places 1/4 at 125/1 through Honest Tal Bet Placement Assistant Services.

Please note, Honest Tal Bet Placement Assistant Services has nothing to do with Honest Tal Turf Accountant (In Administration).

[Tal]

great writeup as usual CWS, goodluck.

+1



Done you a £5ew with Padraig @ 125/1, Tighty.

Who doesn't love a tenner?



Tighty/Tikay, take Marky's for being in first (I was confirming the wording of my post with my solicitor), but LMK if you want any more.

About time you binked one of these, Wetty

[Marky147]

great writeup as usual CWS, goodluck.

+1



Done you a £5ew with Padraig @ 125/1, Tighty.

Who doesn't love a tenner?



Tighty/Tikay, take Marky's for being in first (I was confirming the wording of my post with my solicitor), but LMK if you want any more.

About time you binked one of these, Wetty

Further confirms us as Fred's King Cornettos

[Tal]

Perish to think how much they'll let me have on...

What's the max?

(£31.88 each way sounds like a lot)