Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

so today

ODI Cricket at lords

RWC Warm up v Ireland at Twickenham

England in San Marino

Monza qualifying

US Open tennis

Jack Hobbs at Kempton

Haydock sprint cup. we remember gordon lord byron plunging through the mud a couple of years ago fondly

Strictly come dancing pairings (apart from the one leaked already)

[DungBeetle]

Peter you said this:

"The point of conflict appears to be that most of the guys on here think the spread bet I did is massive, but I'm taking that as a season long bet over 380 games rather than just one lump sum."

I think that the point you may not be considering is that something might happen that affects ALL 380 games at once. Each of the 380 games may have an expected value of 10 individually so the quote would have a mid point of 3800 but then an event happens that makes the expected value of each event just 5 making a new spread mid of 1900. So you 'kind of' now get zero from 190 of your 380 games.

The event could be something subtle like a Premier League team season points bet and that team signing a good goalkeeper or something with massive impact like buying a racing driver's season F1 points and that racing driver breaking a leg.

So if you think of it as 380 individual games you aren't really looking at the risk properly as the 380 games aren't completely separate and unrelated. It is not 380 coin tosses as the way you suggest you might be thinking about it.

I hope this helps you to understand it a bit better, particularly the risk.

I understand the risk okay, I'm aware that this could all be ruined on one day if four teams score 8 goals. However, the duration of the bet is over 380 games and I'm happy to lose x amount per game as an average. (well, not happy to, but you know what I mean  )

I think Joe's point isn't a bunch of observable results, but more if future expectations change.  I don't think it's a feature in your football bet but your way of thinking won't work in other markets.  For example if you buy 50ups in a cricket world cup and think "well it's 40 matches so it's only risking £X per match" that would be a mistake.  If in first 3 games the teams are skittled on bad pitches, the market may conclude that all the pitches for the tournament are going to be poor, so not only do you lose £x times 3 for the observable results, the market will reset to reduce expected 50ups for all the 37 remaining games and you'll be looking at a huge loss even though there have only been 3 matches played.  

[TightEnd]

oioi, a Tighty picture gallery, happy days, thanks Rich.

Why "struggling to do the reports"?

Lack of time, lack of oomph, lack of feedback or interest?

couldn't do it for a while, then lack of oomph/feedback now a bit of writers block.

[tikay]

so today

ODI Cricket at lords

RWC Warm up v Ireland at Twickenham

England in San Marino

Monza qualifying

US Open tennis

Jack Hobbs at Kempton

Haydock sprint cup. we remember gordon lord byron plunging through the mud a couple of years ago fondly

Strictly come dancing pairings (apart from the one leaked already)

IIRC, you & I were at an SPT in Aspers Newcastle that day. (Mondy was there, as I recall).

Despite the heavy workload burden I carry at those things, Front of House & all that, I sneaked out to watch that race in a Ladbrokes  just along the road.

Having spent 20 years frequenting LBO's, I had not been in one for over 15 years, but I still remember them fondly, the atmo, the characters, the warmth of spirit between fellow punters.

What a shock, it was THE most depressing thing ever. I've never set foot in one since, & I doubt I ever will.

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

oioi, a Tighty picture gallery, happy days, thanks Rich.

Why "struggling to do the reports"?

Lack of time, lack of oomph, lack of feedback or interest?

couldn't do it for a while, then lack of oomph/feedback now a bit of writers block.

Gotcha. I have the same problem with my Diary, I'm aching to write so much stuff, but I can't quite get started, in fact I don't know where to start. It's like diving into a swimming pool, I keep standing there thinking "go on, just jump"......

I was the same with  my first - or should have been first - girlfriend, Susan Collins. That's a whole other story though.

[Tal]

Strictly come dancing pairings (apart from the one leaked already)

Not so. The Daily Mirror has announced all of the pairings,  after consulting with an astrologist.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/strictly-come-dancing-pairs-revealed-6384954

Why bother with the evening show?  It's already written in the stars,  apparently...

I love that Stan James has spelt Kirsty Gallacher's name incorrectly in its market. I had no idea she's only 5'4". I was expecting her to be with Brendan. Shame, as that might have offered a little value.

[arbboy]

Tikay will like this one!

IN ONE of those strange quirks of fate beloved by sports fans, Seve and Ballesteros are side by side on the racecard for this afternoon's Betfred TV Be Friendly Handicap at Haydock in what will be the first competitive meeting of the half-brothers bred by Pauline Good, a huge fan of the legendary Spanish golfer.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=633058&r_date=2015-09-05#raceTabs=sc_

Both of them side by side at the bottom of the race card. 

[tikay]

Tikay will like this one!

IN ONE of those strange quirks of fate beloved by sports fans, Seve and Ballesteros are side by side on the racecard for this afternoon's Betfred TV Be Friendly Handicap at Haydock in what will be the first competitive meeting of the half-brothers bred by Pauline Good, a huge fan of the legendary Spanish golfer.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=633058&r_date=2015-09-05#raceTabs=sc_

Both of them side by side at the bottom of the race card. 

Awesome - next to each other, & even in the correct order.

[Tal]

Daniel O'Donnell is 16/1 to win. I don't care how many cardigan wearing voters there are out there, reports suggest he is struggling with the group dances. That must be up there with the worst prices of the year.

[Tal]

Am out of actiom for most of the day, as I will be at Stratford

Click to see full-size image.

Sorry, Stratford

Click to see full-size image.

Tips welcome. I'll be watching the paddock for connections talking to the wrong horse. Learned that trick from a man in a hat

[arbboy]

Am out of actiom for most of the day, as I will be at Stratford

Click to see full-size image.

Sorry, Stratford

Click to see full-size image.

Tips welcome. I'll be watching the paddock for connections talking to the wrong horse. Learned that trick from a man in a hat

Like the long distance traveller in the 205pm - Triple Eight.  It has been gambled.  Rare visit south for the trainer/jockey.  Only runner/ride for the meeting for both.  33/25% strike rates respectively at the track when they do make the 170+ mile trip from North Yorks.  Doubt they are making the trip just for a trot around the Midlands countryside.

[Chompy]

P.Kirby doesn't often leave the money behind.

The shrewdies are on at 7-1 

[TightEnd]

qualifying is at 1pm

[Peter-27]

Peter you said this:

"The point of conflict appears to be that most of the guys on here think the spread bet I did is massive, but I'm taking that as a season long bet over 380 games rather than just one lump sum."

I think that the point you may not be considering is that something might happen that affects ALL 380 games at once. Each of the 380 games may have an expected value of 10 individually so the quote would have a mid point of 3800 but then an event happens that makes the expected value of each event just 5 making a new spread mid of 1900. So you 'kind of' now get zero from 190 of your 380 games.

The event could be something subtle like a Premier League team season points bet and that team signing a good goalkeeper or something with massive impact like buying a racing driver's season F1 points and that racing driver breaking a leg.

So if you think of it as 380 individual games you aren't really looking at the risk properly as the 380 games aren't completely separate and unrelated. It is not 380 coin tosses as the way you suggest you might be thinking about it.

I hope this helps you to understand it a bit better, particularly the risk.

I understand the risk okay, I'm aware that this could all be ruined on one day if four teams score 8 goals. However, the duration of the bet is over 380 games and I'm happy to lose x amount per game as an average. (well, not happy to, but you know what I mean  )

Peter,

Not sure whether to address you as The King of F1, or Mr Stubborn.....

I just want to return to Titanbet for a moment. I hope your bet wins, & I hope you get paid out.

My advice in future, if you are considering betting with anyone except the "big names" is to seek advice from some of the guys on here. Some of us have learned the hard way, you have to be very careful, but if a Firm has a dodgy rep, the boys on here will know - they make their living in Sports Betting, so they know most of the angles & dodgepots. 

You can always ask privately, via PM, & I could choose 10 or 12 names, but try sending a PM to the likes of Joe Beevers, ArgueBoy, Camel, or, if all else fails & you are desperate, Chompy.

Being freerolled by a bookie sucks.

Good luck this weekend with the Monza stuff.   

Haha! I have been called both in the past 

Thanks, I appreciate being able to call on the experience of you guys 

Let me ask, which of the bookies here are ones that I should not be registering with:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/winner

.. I'm with nearly all of them! Obviously I will look to close my TitanBet account when the open bet is settled.

I will leave that to others, as I have no credible evidence other than rumours, & it would be wrong to comment on rumours.

I only mentioned TitanBet as I have a file of e-mails as long as my arm about them from guys who know me from here or Next Door, & I even wrote to them myself on behalf of one of them as they were behaving shamefully.

As a general rule, & ignoring the 2 Exchanges  at the far right of the list, I would say if there are any to be wary of, they will be towards the right hand end of that list as shown on Oddschecker. Being on Oddschecker does not guarantee anything, but if an obscure outfit is NOT on Oddschecker, I'd tread warily. 

What did they respond with when you e-mailed them?

Okay, thanks for the info. Noted

Peter you said this:

"The point of conflict appears to be that most of the guys on here think the spread bet I did is massive, but I'm taking that as a season long bet over 380 games rather than just one lump sum."

I think that the point you may not be considering is that something might happen that affects ALL 380 games at once. Each of the 380 games may have an expected value of 10 individually so the quote would have a mid point of 3800 but then an event happens that makes the expected value of each event just 5 making a new spread mid of 1900. So you 'kind of' now get zero from 190 of your 380 games.

The event could be something subtle like a Premier League team season points bet and that team signing a good goalkeeper or something with massive impact like buying a racing driver's season F1 points and that racing driver breaking a leg.

So if you think of it as 380 individual games you aren't really looking at the risk properly as the 380 games aren't completely separate and unrelated. It is not 380 coin tosses as the way you suggest you might be thinking about it.

I hope this helps you to understand it a bit better, particularly the risk.

I understand the risk okay, I'm aware that this could all be ruined on one day if four teams score 8 goals. However, the duration of the bet is over 380 games and I'm happy to lose x amount per game as an average. (well, not happy to, but you know what I mean  )

I think Joe's point isn't a bunch of observable results, but more if future expectations change.  I don't think it's a feature in your football bet but your way of thinking won't work in other markets.  For example if you buy 50ups in a cricket world cup and think "well it's 40 matches so it's only risking £X per match" that would be a mistake.  If in first 3 games the teams are skittled on bad pitches, the market may conclude that all the pitches for the tournament are going to be poor, so not only do you lose £x times 3 for the observable results, the market will reset to reduce expected 50ups for all the 37 remaining games and you'll be looking at a huge loss even though there have only been 3 matches played.   

Yeah, that all makes sense.

I've looked at my maximum realistic loss, and I'm happy to lose that for a bet which lasts a season, so I'm not concerned 

At the moment, I can cash out that bet for £175, but obviously that could change rapidly.

As for the Force India spread, can currently cash out for a whopping £1320! Only need them to score four more points for a guaranteed profit 

[Tal]

P.Kirby doesn't often leave the money behind.

The shrewdies are on at 7-1 

Lol kirbyments!

Thanks chaps.