Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Peter you said this:

"The point of conflict appears to be that most of the guys on here think the spread bet I did is massive, but I'm taking that as a season long bet over 380 games rather than just one lump sum."

I think that the point you may not be considering is that something might happen that affects ALL 380 games at once. Each of the 380 games may have an expected value of 10 individually so the quote would have a mid point of 3800 but then an event happens that makes the expected value of each event just 5 making a new spread mid of 1900. So you 'kind of' now get zero from 190 of your 380 games.

The event could be something subtle like a Premier League team season points bet and that team signing a good goalkeeper or something with massive impact like buying a racing driver's season F1 points and that racing driver breaking a leg.

So if you think of it as 380 individual games you aren't really looking at the risk properly as the 380 games aren't completely separate and unrelated. It is not 380 coin tosses as the way you suggest you might be thinking about it.

I hope this helps you to understand it a bit better, particularly the risk.

I understand the risk okay, I'm aware that this could all be ruined on one day if four teams score 8 goals. However, the duration of the bet is over 380 games and I'm happy to lose x amount per game as an average. (well, not happy to, but you know what I mean  )

Peter,

Not sure whether to address you as The King of F1, or Mr Stubborn.....

I just want to return to Titanbet for a moment. I hope your bet wins, & I hope you get paid out.

My advice in future, if you are considering betting with anyone except the "big names" is to seek advice from some of the guys on here. Some of us have learned the hard way, you have to be very careful, but if a Firm has a dodgy rep, the boys on here will know - they make their living in Sports Betting, so they know most of the angles & dodgepots. 

You can always ask privately, via PM, & I could choose 10 or 12 names, but try sending a PM to the likes of Joe Beevers, ArgueBoy, Camel, or, if all else fails & you are desperate, Chompy.

Being freerolled by a bookie sucks.

Good luck this weekend with the Monza stuff.   

Haha! I have been called both in the past 

Thanks, I appreciate being able to call on the experience of you guys 

Let me ask, which of the bookies here are ones that I should not be registering with:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/winner

.. I'm with nearly all of them! Obviously I will look to close my TitanBet account when the open bet is settled.

I will leave that to others, as I have no credible evidence other than rumours, & it would be wrong to comment on rumours.

I only mentioned TitanBet as I have a file of e-mails as long as my arm about them from guys who know me from here or Next Door, & I even wrote to them myself on behalf of one of them as they were behaving shamefully.

As a general rule, & ignoring the 2 Exchanges  at the far right of the list, I would say if there are any to be wary of, they will be towards the right hand end of that list as shown on Oddschecker. Being on Oddschecker does not guarantee anything, but if an obscure outfit is NOT on Oddschecker, I'd tread warily. 

What did they respond with when you e-mailed them?

Okay, thanks for the info. Noted

Peter you said this:

"The point of conflict appears to be that most of the guys on here think the spread bet I did is massive, but I'm taking that as a season long bet over 380 games rather than just one lump sum."

I think that the point you may not be considering is that something might happen that affects ALL 380 games at once. Each of the 380 games may have an expected value of 10 individually so the quote would have a mid point of 3800 but then an event happens that makes the expected value of each event just 5 making a new spread mid of 1900. So you 'kind of' now get zero from 190 of your 380 games.

The event could be something subtle like a Premier League team season points bet and that team signing a good goalkeeper or something with massive impact like buying a racing driver's season F1 points and that racing driver breaking a leg.

So if you think of it as 380 individual games you aren't really looking at the risk properly as the 380 games aren't completely separate and unrelated. It is not 380 coin tosses as the way you suggest you might be thinking about it.

I hope this helps you to understand it a bit better, particularly the risk.

I understand the risk okay, I'm aware that this could all be ruined on one day if four teams score 8 goals. However, the duration of the bet is over 380 games and I'm happy to lose x amount per game as an average. (well, not happy to, but you know what I mean  )

I think Joe's point isn't a bunch of observable results, but more if future expectations change.  I don't think it's a feature in your football bet but your way of thinking won't work in other markets.  For example if you buy 50ups in a cricket world cup and think "well it's 40 matches so it's only risking £X per match" that would be a mistake.  If in first 3 games the teams are skittled on bad pitches, the market may conclude that all the pitches for the tournament are going to be poor, so not only do you lose £x times 3 for the observable results, the market will reset to reduce expected 50ups for all the 37 remaining games and you'll be looking at a huge loss even though there have only been 3 matches played.   

Yeah, that all makes sense.

I've looked at my maximum realistic loss, and I'm happy to lose that for a bet which lasts a season, so I'm not concerned 

At the moment, I can cash out that bet for £175, but obviously that could change rapidly.

As for the Force India spread, can currently cash out for a whopping £1320! Only need them to score four more points for a guaranteed profit 

They never replied to me, which was fair enough, as I was not involved as such. That was part of the problem though, they failed to reply to the complainant, too.

[Karabiner]

P.Kirby doesn't often leave the money behind.

The shrewdies are on at 7-1 

Lol kirbyments!

Thanks chaps.

I'm so easily led.

First conditional jockey's selling handicap hurdle I've punted on for a while.

[Peter-27]

Couple of bet suggestions post-FP3:

Group B (RAI/MAS/GRO/RIC) - Felipe Massa @ 13/8 with 365 - price too high, he should be the favourite. Suggest £25.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/group-b

Group C (HUL/PER/MAL/KVY) - Sergio Perez @ 15/8 with 365 - again, price too high considering Hulkenberg is 11/8. Suggest £25.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/group-c

Also, Rosberg is currently 4/1 to win the race on the exchange if you didn't get on before

[TightEnd]

 MERCEDES AMG F1 ‏@MercedesAMGF1 53s53 seconds ago

Un-diagnosed engine problem for @nico_rosberg in #FP3 means we're reverting back to the Spa race Power Unit on his #F1 W06 Hybrid for #Quali

[Peter-27]

MERCEDES AMG F1 ‏@MercedesAMGF1 53s53 seconds ago

Un-diagnosed engine problem for @nico_rosberg in #FP3 means we're reverting back to the Spa race Power Unit on his #F1 W06 Hybrid for #Quali

Yep, just saw that, wouldn't recommend the Rosberg bet now! Unlucky 

[arbboy]

Last night's inside bias at Romford has carried over to this morning's BAGS.  5 t1 winners already and winners from t2 and t3 as well in first 9 races.

[JoeBeevers]

Peter you said this:

"The point of conflict appears to be that most of the guys on here think the spread bet I did is massive, but I'm taking that as a season long bet over 380 games rather than just one lump sum."

I think that the point you may not be considering is that something might happen that affects ALL 380 games at once. Each of the 380 games may have an expected value of 10 individually so the quote would have a mid point of 3800 but then an event happens that makes the expected value of each event just 5 making a new spread mid of 1900. So you 'kind of' now get zero from 190 of your 380 games.

The event could be something subtle like a Premier League team season points bet and that team signing a good goalkeeper or something with massive impact like buying a racing driver's season F1 points and that racing driver breaking a leg.

So if you think of it as 380 individual games you aren't really looking at the risk properly as the 380 games aren't completely separate and unrelated. It is not 380 coin tosses as the way you suggest you might be thinking about it.

I hope this helps you to understand it a bit better, particularly the risk.

I understand the risk okay, I'm aware that this could all be ruined on one day if four teams score 8 goals. However, the duration of the bet is over 380 games and I'm happy to lose x amount per game as an average. (well, not happy to, but you know what I mean  )

I think Joe's point isn't a bunch of observable results, but more if future expectations change.  I don't think it's a feature in your football bet but your way of thinking won't work in other markets.  For example if you buy 50ups in a cricket world cup and think "well it's 40 matches so it's only risking £X per match" that would be a mistake.  If in first 3 games the teams are skittled on bad pitches, the market may conclude that all the pitches for the tournament are going to be poor, so not only do you lose £x times 3 for the observable results, the market will reset to reduce expected 50ups for all the 37 remaining games and you'll be looking at a huge loss even though there have only been 3 matches played.  

Thanks Dung, yes you are correct. I actually wrote that not realising which market we were talking about, it was a general statement. Your example is a good one and just as valid.

Peter, one thing to say about the Going For Goals (that is the market you are talking about right?). A few bad weeks with a few high scoring games could see the market jump 200 points and it's not impossible (it is unlikely I agree, but not impossible) for you to lose 400 points or more in a season. If you can lose 400 points and it doesn't bother you financially then that's fine but playing spreads these things WILL happen to you at some point.

Everyone has a spread horror story, mine involves David James in the FA Cup final. Sends shivers down my spine just typing that. I might write a blog about it.

[Karabiner]

MERCEDES AMG F1 ‏@MercedesAMGF1 53s53 seconds ago

Un-diagnosed engine problem for @nico_rosberg in #FP3 means we're reverting back to the Spa race Power Unit on his #F1 W06 Hybrid for #Quali

Yep, just saw that, wouldn't recommend the Rosberg bet now! Unlucky 

Any chance of Hamilton's new engine now being unreliable too?

[Tal]

Last race at stratters for each way thievery?

Can the best betting race really be the last?!

[arbboy]

Last race at stratters for each way thievery?

Can the best betting race really be the last?!

It really isn't that good a race for ew.  Place bets at 1/5 123 will be only slightly +ev if you get top price on oddschecker with the firms.  A NR to get the field down to 8 would help.

[arbboy]

Roy the boy just had an interview on ATR saying under 5 seconds winning margin in the F1 was a cracking bet at 11/8.  He made it a 1/2 shot.  Any of the F1 boys got any views?

[TightEnd]

Roy the boy just had an interview on ATR saying under 5 seconds winning margin in the F1 was a cracking bet at 11/8.  He made it a 1/2 shot.  Any of the F1 boys got any views?

lol. 1/2!

should be a bigger margin if we have one new mercedes power unit and one old one in the race.

mr spread bet recommended 11-15 fwiw

[arbboy]

Roy the boy just had an interview on ATR saying under 5 seconds winning margin in the F1 was a cracking bet at 11/8.  He made it a 1/2 shot.  Any of the F1 boys got any views?

lol. 1/2!

should be a bigger margin if we have one new mercedes power unit and one old one in the race.

mr spread bet recommended 11-15 fwiw

I haven't got a clue.  F1 = wwe for me.  The boy was pretty bullish about this alongside no safety car as well.

[TightEnd]

Roy is always overly bullish about his recommendations. hypes them up no end, when in practice sports betting is a lot more shades of grey, is it not?

[arbboy]

Roy is always overly bullish about his recommendations. hypes them up no end, when in practice sports betting is a lot more shades of grey, is it not?

His argument for backing Murray for SPOTY at 14/1 on atr after his F1 advise was comically bad.  He said 'Murray has to win us open and Davis cup to have a chance - he will be big odds on for the davis cup'.  Incorrect he is 13/8 and 7/1 for the Us open so a 20/1 double just to win those two events and then isn't close to being a shoe in for the SPOTY.

I know nothing about f1 though so can't really comment on his opinions on that.