Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Roy is always overly bullish about his recommendations. hypes them up no end, when in practice sports betting is a lot more shades of grey, is it not?

His argument for backing Murray for SPOTY at 14/1 on atr after his F1 advise was comically bad.  He said 'Murray has to win us open and Davis cup to have a chance - he will be big odds on for the davis cup'.  Incorrect he is 13/8 and 7/1 for the Us open so a 20/1 double just to win those two events and then isn't close to being a shoe in for the SPOTY.

I know nothing about f1 though so can't really comment on his opinions on that.

[Tal]

Tebow 15/8 top make the final roster appeal, Tighty?

[McGlashan]

Boxing is back on sky tonight and the bookies have gone 1/8 on the previously discussed prospect Isaac Lowe, so there's no bet there.

It's the Martin Murray fight I've got my eye on. It's hard to fathom how his skinny fat patsy of an opponent will last the full 12 rounds. 

Rec £100 on Murray by stoppage @ 8/13 with Choral.

[TightEnd]

Tebow 15/8 top make the final roster appeal, Tighty?

Yes where is that?

a) they have traded Barkley

b) Sanchez and Bradford have both have big injury histories, would feel a gamble to go with only 2 QBs on the 53

c) Kelly has some short yardage/goal-line packages that include Tebow as a tight end

should be much much shorter

[TightEnd]

Boxing is back on sky tonight and the bookies have gone 1/8 on the previously discussed prospect Isaac Lowe, so there's no bet there.

It's the Martin Murray fight I've got my eye on. It's hard to fathom how his skinny fat patsy of an opponent will last the full 12 rounds. 

Rec £100 on Murray by stoppage @ 8/13 with Choral.

i think i may have missed this price?

this is the right market, 4/9 best?

http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/martin-murray-v-jose-miguel-torres/method-of-victory

[Tal]

Tebow 15/8 top make the final roster appeal, Tighty?

Yes where is that?

a) they have traded Barkley

b) Sanchez and Bradford have both have big injury histories, would feel a gamble to go with only 2 QBs on the 53

c) Kelly has some short yardage/goal-line packages that include Tebow as a tight end

should be much much shorter

Ladle blokes

[ChipRich]

Prolly just gg your account if you bet Tebow.

[Tal]

Thank you Chompy!

[TightEnd]

a qualifying loser i am afraid

hit trouble early, never threatened

[Peter-27]

Peter you said this:

"The point of conflict appears to be that most of the guys on here think the spread bet I did is massive, but I'm taking that as a season long bet over 380 games rather than just one lump sum."

I think that the point you may not be considering is that something might happen that affects ALL 380 games at once. Each of the 380 games may have an expected value of 10 individually so the quote would have a mid point of 3800 but then an event happens that makes the expected value of each event just 5 making a new spread mid of 1900. So you 'kind of' now get zero from 190 of your 380 games.

The event could be something subtle like a Premier League team season points bet and that team signing a good goalkeeper or something with massive impact like buying a racing driver's season F1 points and that racing driver breaking a leg.

So if you think of it as 380 individual games you aren't really looking at the risk properly as the 380 games aren't completely separate and unrelated. It is not 380 coin tosses as the way you suggest you might be thinking about it.

I hope this helps you to understand it a bit better, particularly the risk.

I understand the risk okay, I'm aware that this could all be ruined on one day if four teams score 8 goals. However, the duration of the bet is over 380 games and I'm happy to lose x amount per game as an average. (well, not happy to, but you know what I mean  )

I think Joe's point isn't a bunch of observable results, but more if future expectations change.  I don't think it's a feature in your football bet but your way of thinking won't work in other markets.  For example if you buy 50ups in a cricket world cup and think "well it's 40 matches so it's only risking £X per match" that would be a mistake.  If in first 3 games the teams are skittled on bad pitches, the market may conclude that all the pitches for the tournament are going to be poor, so not only do you lose £x times 3 for the observable results, the market will reset to reduce expected 50ups for all the 37 remaining games and you'll be looking at a huge loss even though there have only been 3 matches played.  

Thanks Dung, yes you are correct. I actually wrote that not realising which market we were talking about, it was a general statement. Your example is a good one and just as valid.

Peter, one thing to say about the Going For Goals (that is the market you are talking about right?). A few bad weeks with a few high scoring games could see the market jump 200 points and it's not impossible (it is unlikely I agree, but not impossible) for you to lose 400 points or more in a season. If you can lose 400 points and it doesn't bother you financially then that's fine but playing spreads these things WILL happen to you at some point.

Everyone has a spread horror story, mine involves David James in the FA Cup final. Sends shivers down my spine just typing that. I might write a blog about it.

Agreed. Bets like this aren't a regular occurrence, this is a one off

MERCEDES AMG F1 ‏@MercedesAMGF1 53s53 seconds ago

Un-diagnosed engine problem for @nico_rosberg in #FP3 means we're reverting back to the Spa race Power Unit on his #F1 W06 Hybrid for #Quali

Yep, just saw that, wouldn't recommend the Rosberg bet now! Unlucky  

Any chance of Hamilton's new engine now being unreliable too?

Depends on what the failure on Nico's car specifically was, but with the information we have at the moment, yes.

Roy the boy just had an interview on ATR saying under 5 seconds winning margin in the F1 was a cracking bet at 11/8.  He made it a 1/2 shot.  Any of the F1 boys got any views?

Possible with a late safety car, but I'd say it was very unlikely. 1/2 is utter madness, I would say he doesn't understand either betting, or F1, or both. What is ATR?

Kinda poor qualifying session for us, especially for Nico Hulkenberg, I'd be surprised if he can avoid a pit lane start tomorrow  

[Karabiner]

OI OI good shout Arbs.

Jimmy Savile no doubt on his way...

[TightEnd]

Tebow 15/8 top make the final roster appeal, Tighty?

Yes where is that?

a) they have traded Barkley

b) Sanchez and Bradford have both have big injury histories, would feel a gamble to go with only 2 QBs on the 53

c) Kelly has some short yardage/goal-line packages that include Tebow as a tight end

should be much much shorter

Ladle blokes

the man who priced it at 15/8 doesn't understand the NFL, betting, or both.


a useful tool today is the ourlads depth charts..if there are any other prices you see pop them up

here's the eagles one http://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/PHI

[Peter-27]

Sensing a theme at the moment  

1/2 is utter madness, I would say he doesn't understand either betting, or F1, or both.

the man who priced it at 15/8 doesn't understand the NFL, betting, or both.

[TightEnd]

Sensing a theme at the moment 

1/2 is utter madness, I would say he doesn't understand either betting, or F1, or both.

the man who priced it at 15/8 doesn't understand the NFL, betting, or both.

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

tebow market suspended, by the way

congrats if you beat the closure, and good spot Tal