Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

a winter warmer to sustain us through the dark months

Lumiere 1000 Guineas Winner
10/1
Total Stake: £50.00
Potential Returns: £550.00

[Chompy]

Tempted to put Swindon up for relegation.

They've had a pretty easy fixture list thus far and yesterday's home defeat to Colchester was their third on the spin.

They were pretty ropey up front last season. Admittedly they scored plenty but Andy Williams was a bit-part player either side of an insane purple patch, and their quality was in midfield. Losing Ben Gladwin and Luongo was a killer and they don't have the quality now to play the way Cooper had them playing last season.

It's whether we go in now at 10-1 or wait until after this week, when they have two winnable away games at Doncaster and Blackpool.


It's looking like the Dean Saunders effect is starting to kick in at Chesterfield now after a bright start. Too soon to be giving up on that one.

[baldock92]

Anyone know what price Stoke went off today? Assuming it was 2/1+ given their spin quote for their season points after today.  They have probably got very close to their expected point total so far given their games yet are quoted at an incredibly low 41 points for the season.  Take out the 9 man freak show effort at home to wba and they would be comfortably in mid table totally in Line with expectation. Don't want to come across as bias but I am really struggling to see how Stoke are the fourth worst team in the epl at the end of the season given shawcross is close to returning.  I actually think given the run of fixtures we have started with alongside the injuries and bedding in new players six points from seven games given the wba 2 reds in the first half hour one off freak show is very reasonable.

lolbrokes have Stoke at 9/4 to go down,  once they put up their to stay up prices ( the inverse of the relegation prices to 108% in their standard two way match odds) I would expect to see 2/7 Stoke stay up - effectively laying Stoke at 7/2 to go down.  This is max bet material,

Stoke were 31/20 when I backed them. Think they were a tiny fraction higher on Betfair. I don't think they were 2/1 at any stage.

I got them 17/10 midweek, think they were at 6/4 pre kick off.

[The Camel]

Lumiere is 14-1 for the 1000

That looks interesting, does it not?

Johnson is "sure she'll win the guineas" apparently. lolbrokes still 14's, everyone else 8,9,10's.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/report/693842/lumiere-lights-up-newmarket

Yikes! Johnston says something more interesting in one race report than Richard Fahey has managed on there in a few years of writing a Saturday column.

She reminded me so much of Attraction yesterday it's untrue.

Hard to know when greys have gone in their coat but obv the trainer will know more. She's listed as 'bay' but pretty sure that's steel grey.



I've never been able to get Johnston horses right. He's a bit like Hannon snr for me in that there's no rhyme or reason to it, he just throws loads of darts and some stick. But he knows what he's got and, if they're backed, they usually perform.

Given the number of top 2yos he's had I guess we have to take this seriously and snap up the 14s while it's there. Suggest we flick it hard too, £100 at 14-1.

Will she go to Godolphin for next season?

[Chompy]

That much I wouldn't know. You'd hope not though. If she goes to Saeed Bin Bag, we may not see her again until a conditions race at Nottingham next October.

[hhyftrftdr]

Roma won 5-1 yesterday, with Juventus losing at Napoli.

Big game this evening with leaders Inter hosting 2nd place Fiorentina. Could do with Inter dropping some points sooner rather than later....

[stumpythefish]

Lumiere is 14-1 for the 1000

That looks interesting, does it not?

Johnson is "sure she'll win the guineas" apparently. lolbrokes still 14's, everyone else 8,9,10's.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/report/693842/lumiere-lights-up-newmarket

Yikes! Johnston says something more interesting in one race report than Richard Fahey has managed on there in a few years of writing a Saturday column.

She reminded me so much of Attraction yesterday it's untrue.

Hard to know when greys have gone in their coat but obv the trainer will know more. She's listed as 'bay' but pretty sure that's steel grey.



I've never been able to get Johnston horses right. He's a bit like Hannon snr for me in that there's no rhyme or reason to it, he just throws loads of darts and some stick. But he knows what he's got and, if they're backed, they usually perform.

Given the number of top 2yos he's had I guess we have to take this seriously and snap up the 14s while it's there. Suggest we flick it hard too, £100 at 14-1.

Will she go to Godolphin for next season?

I'm pretty sure I seen an interview with Johnston saying he was training majority of 2yolds then they were moving on

[fatcatstu]

Do the Oakland Raiders look a good bet to beat the Browns tonight?

not sure the words oakland raiders and good bet have been in the same sentence since 1990

they are favourites (edit they aren't), and finally have drafted some talent that means they should improve steadily from here

they match up well against the browns because their big weakness, the defensive secondary is match by the browns having 1, at most, good receivers, travis benjamin.

i think they will win by stopping the browns running and carr/cooper/murray etc will score enough points

Stack the box v the bang average run committee they seem to like and cover the ridic deep bomb to Benjamin and you shut the Browns down.

Cooper is looking good and Murray gives them enough of a run threat to mix it up, they SHOULD be beating the Browns I think.

[Stopsleyhatter]

Laddies going Jones 11/5 Sanu 10/3 anytime touchdown scorer.Got to think Green and Eifert match up against the best Ravens defenders leaving these 2 as redzone targets.

[swinebag22]

Any opinions on the Dolphins/Bills total?

started the week at 43.5 and then went as low as 41.5 and is now back up to 43 again with some offering 43.5

Would it be fair to suggest sharp money earlier in the week on unders and mug money on the overs today?

Bigger than normal divisional clash as Tal suggested earlier so should be a pretty tight game. I like the unders here and have had a bet on matchbook at evens. Don't think Fred has matchbook (could be an idea though for the NFL season)

Unless I am wrong about where the money has come from I recc £21 with BMU at 20/21

[Tal]

A couple for the 6pm kick offs, then, across the Pond.

Minnesota v San Diego won't be getting much attention, in all likelihood, but it looks like a tough game to call. San Diego have a more dynamic offence and the better quarterback, but Minnesota are at home and have the incomparable Adrian Peterson at running back, who, when these teams played eight years ago (one is NFC and the other is AFC, so they don't play each other very often), racked up a staggering 296 yards. After a slow start in his first game back since his absence (google it), he showed some of the old magic last week. He adds a massive plus to this emerging offensive unit. The opposition today has been appalling against the run in the last two games.

San Diego would score 20 points if the other team had 20 defenders on the field. It's kind of what they do. Philip Rivers is a top level QB, but needs support from his receivers and much more from his offensive line. In fact, San Diego have problems in both offensive and defensive lines, with the number of injuries really threatening their playoff ambitions. Minnesota's game is built on pressuring the quarterback, rather than looking to smash him down and they have a talented secondary to pick up any stray passes.

It will be a close game, but San Diego won't be winning this game by killing it slowly, so we can be sure there will be risks taken. Minnesota aren't a heavy scoring team, but they will find spaces in the backfield, as the defense is stocked with runstuffers and linebackers avoid outside blitzes. Offensive Coordinator, Norv Turner, used to be the head coach in San Diego. A bit of a Steve McLaren type, he's frequently mocked for his time as leader, but he is an excellent coach and play-caller.

The biggest injury news is Chargers' cornerback and former lead singer of The Killers, Brandon Flowers, who is out. This means Mike Wallace, the up and down wide receiver of the Vikings, will have a second choice secondary to attack on his vertical (i.e., run Forrest run) routes.  

There are two bets I like in this game. Firstly, the line on points is 45.5, for which those of you on Scuy can get Evens on the overs. Fred will still enjoy 20/21 with BMU. The Chargers will score 23 points (as they managed a total of 52 against Detroit and Cincinnati) and the Vikings are a 1 point favourite (having been opposed by the market this week, down from 2.5 favourites).

The second bet is a riskier one. Mike Wallace first touchdown scorer at 12/1 with Chorals (also patrick and scuy) as he will offer a genuine threat in this game. Overs on his receiving yards is a thought, but 12/1 in a game where running the ball is likely for the Vikings seems like a good bit of contrarian value.

Recommend £42 on OVER 45.5 points with BMU
Recommend £10 on Mike Wallace First TD at 12/1 with Chorals  

As an aside, the Vikings are currently in a dispute with their mascot, a viking called Ragnar.



He was on $1,500 a game. He now wants $20,000 a game.

[fatcatstu]

Any opinions on the Dolphins/Bills total?

started the week at 43.5 and then went as low as 41.5 and is now back up to 43 again with some offering 43.5

Would it be fair to suggest sharp money earlier in the week on unders and mug money on the overs today?

Bigger than normal divisional clash as Tal suggested earlier so should be a pretty tight game. I like the unders here and have had a bet on matchbook at evens. Don't think Fred has matchbook (could be an idea though for the NFL season)

Unless I am wrong about where the money has come from I recc £21 with BMU at 20/21

Unders looks good, very little receiving wise on either team, reckon it will be a cagey affair.

[Tal]

Any opinions on the Dolphins/Bills total?

started the week at 43.5 and then went as low as 41.5 and is now back up to 43 again with some offering 43.5

Would it be fair to suggest sharp money earlier in the week on unders and mug money on the overs today?

Bigger than normal divisional clash as Tal suggested earlier so should be a pretty tight game. I like the unders here and have had a bet on matchbook at evens. Don't think Fred has matchbook (could be an idea though for the NFL season)

Unless I am wrong about where the money has come from I recc £21 with BMU at 20/21

Unders looks good, very little receiving wise on either team, reckon it will be a cagey affair.

Agree entirely. Rex will be relishing the defensive battle. LeSean McCoy is fit and Suh has yet to look like the man they signed. Suh and Dareus both on $100m contracts. There is hope for fat blokes everywhere.

[Tal]

Speaking of contrarian...

I'd like to propose Nick Foles to pass for over 248.5 yards in the game St Louis Rams v Pittsburgh Steelers. The Rams are a frustrating outfit, but they have a guy who can chuck it far now, some speedy guys in the deep and a competent if unspectacular run game.

None of that matters, though, because the Steelers score all of the points. All of them. And that means, when you play against the Steelers, you have to go airborne. In fantasy point terms, in the last 11 weeks of fantasy relevant football (not including week 17 of last season), the Steelers have played against ten teams that have had a quarterback put up a top 10 performance (per Number Fire). That's an astonishing statistic. It means, whoever they play, the quarterback goes ballistic. Doesn't matter whether it's a good one or a bad one. They rack up passing yards.

Foles struggled against Washington, but put 290 yards up Seattle. This line is 30 too low and we should have a nice bet on the overs.

Recommend £33 on Nick Foles to pass for over 248.5 yards with BMU at 10/11

[swinebag22]

A couple for the 6pm kick offs, then, across the Pond.

Minnesota v San Diego won't be getting much attention, in all likelihood, but it looks like a tough game to call. San Diego have a more dynamic offence and the better quarterback, but Minnesota are at home and have the incomparable Adrian Peterson at running back, who, when these teams played eight years ago (one is NFC and the other is AFC, so they don't play each other very often), racked up a staggering 296 yards. After a slow start in his first game back since his absence (google it), he showed some of the old magic last week. He adds a massive plus to this emerging offensive unit. The opposition today has been appalling against the run in the last two games.

San Diego would score 20 points if the other team had 20 defenders on the field. It's kind of what they do. Philip Rivers is a top level QB, but needs support from his receivers and much more from his offensive line. In fact, San Diego have problems in both offensive and defensive lines, with the number of injuries really threatening their playoff ambitions. Minnesota's game is built on pressuring the quarterback, rather than looking to smash him down and they have a talented secondary to pick up any stray passes.

It will be a close game, but San Diego won't be winning this game by killing it slowly, so we can be sure there will be risks taken. Minnesota aren't a heavy scoring team, but they will find spaces in the backfield, as the defense is stocked with runstuffers and linebackers avoid outside blitzes. Offensive Coordinator, Norv Turner, used to be the head coach in San Diego. A bit of a Steve McLaren type, he's frequently mocked for his time as leader, but he is an excellent coach and play-caller.

The biggest injury news is Chargers' cornerback and former lead singer of The Killers, Brandon Flowers, who is out. This means Mike Wallace, the up and down wide receiver of the Vikings, will have a second choice secondary to attack on his vertical (i.e., run Forrest run) routes.  

There are two bets I like in this game. Firstly, the line on points is 45.5, for which those of you on Scuy can get Evens on the overs. Fred will still enjoy 20/21 with BMU. The Chargers will score 23 points (as they managed a total of 52 against Detroit and Cincinnati) and the Vikings are a 1 point favourite (having been opposed by the market this week, down from 2.5 favourites).

The second bet is a riskier one. Mike Wallace first touchdown scorer at 12/1 with Chorals (also patrick and scuy) as he will offer a genuine threat in this game. Overs on his receiving yards is a thought, but 12/1 in a game where running the ball is likely for the Vikings seems like a good bit of contrarian value.

Recommend £42 on OVER 45.5 points with BMU
Recommend £10 on Mike Wallace First TD at 12/1 with Chorals  

As an aside, the Vikings are currently in a dispute with their mascot, a viking called Ragnar.



He was on $1,500 a game. He now wants $20,000 a game.

great write up but the OVER was 44.5 all week and 45 is quite a key number. Not sure how much value it is now.

Am on the TD one though