Tips for Tikay

[MattyHollis]

Pre-race bet suggestions:

Race Winner: Lewis Hamilton @ EVS with pretty much everyone. We're already on this bet, but EVS, even from P2, is huge! I'd say this is a £50 bet. Probably more actually, but I'm not comfortable recommending a bet over £50 at this stage.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/winner

Group C (GRO/PER/MAL/HUL): Sergio Perez @ 6/4 with 365. He should be the favourite in this group, suggest £15.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/group-c

Group D (SAI/VER/ERI/NAS): Carlos Sainz @ 5/6 with 365. Sauber aren't a threat in this group at all, and with five cars between Sainz and his team mate, the price shouldn't be this high. Suggest £15.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/group-d

Careful with the first one, Peter. One bookie getting it wrong is common, two or three possible, but all of them is rare. You may well still be right but don't empty the clip.

I don't see these comments when other people are saying max bet overs unders etc etc when lines are the same everywhere.

[arbboy]

Pre-race bet suggestions:

Race Winner: Lewis Hamilton @ EVS with pretty much everyone. We're already on this bet, but EVS, even from P2, is huge! I'd say this is a £50 bet. Probably more actually, but I'm not comfortable recommending a bet over £50 at this stage.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/winner

Group C (GRO/PER/MAL/HUL): Sergio Perez @ 6/4 with 365. He should be the favourite in this group, suggest £15.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/group-c

Group D (SAI/VER/ERI/NAS): Carlos Sainz @ 5/6 with 365. Sauber aren't a threat in this group at all, and with five cars between Sainz and his team mate, the price shouldn't be this high. Suggest £15.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/group-d

Careful with the first one, Peter. One bookie getting it wrong is common, two or three possible, but all of them is rare. You may well still be right but don't empty the clip.

I don't see these comments when other people are saying max bet overs unders etc etc when lines are the same everywhere.

I agree with this, Peter has a pretty strong record of getting results on f1 provided you can get on with the firms he states.  No reason to not go with his opinion here.

I think what lets Peter down is his staking plan across bets.  This should be a £500 max bet for Fred given his spread betting staking plan. That is what makes people cautious on his more than decent f1 results. 

On a totally separate issue which is nothing to do with Peter Fred has a circa £10k roll. Every bet should be a minimum of £50 nowadays. The vast majority should be £100-£200 as standard bets with a max as £500.  I appreciate getting on is a problem but I think everyone should be talking in these terms just in case we can get on which in numerous cases we can but we don't.

[TheDazzler]

Anyone know what price Stoke went off today? Assuming it was 2/1+ given their spin quote for their season points after today.  They have probably got very close to their expected point total so far given their games yet are quoted at an incredibly low 41 points for the season.  Take out the 9 man freak show effort at home to wba and they would be comfortably in mid table totally in Line with expectation. Don't want to come across as bias but I am really struggling to see how Stoke are the fourth worst team in the epl at the end of the season given shawcross is close to returning.  I actually think given the run of fixtures we have started with alongside the injuries and bedding in new players six points from seven games given the wba 2 reds in the first half hour one off freak show is very reasonable.

lolbrokes have Stoke at 9/4 to go down,  once they put up their to stay up prices ( the inverse of the relegation prices to 108% in their standard two way match odds) I would expect to see 2/7 Stoke stay up - effectively laying Stoke at 7/2 to go down.  This is max bet material,

Agree with this. Stoke are a comfortable mid table side.
I think backing them to finish top half might be a bet too.

[Tal]

Pre-race bet suggestions:

Race Winner: Lewis Hamilton @ EVS with pretty much everyone. We're already on this bet, but EVS, even from P2, is huge! I'd say this is a £50 bet. Probably more actually, but I'm not comfortable recommending a bet over £50 at this stage.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/winner

Group C (GRO/PER/MAL/HUL): Sergio Perez @ 6/4 with 365. He should be the favourite in this group, suggest £15.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/group-c

Group D (SAI/VER/ERI/NAS): Carlos Sainz @ 5/6 with 365. Sauber aren't a threat in this group at all, and with five cars between Sainz and his team mate, the price shouldn't be this high. Suggest £15.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/group-d

Careful with the first one, Peter. One bookie getting it wrong is common, two or three possible, but all of them is rare. You may well still be right but don't empty the clip.

I don't see these comments when other people are saying max bet overs unders etc etc when lines are the same everywhere.

Behave!

I have and will continue to have my fair share of questions raised by other people on things I've posted ITT. Everything is up for discussion, isn't it? If I post three suggestions tomorrow and people say they're rubbish or need refinement, fine. It's opinions and how we all improve. Don't make it out to be anything personal because that isn't fair.

The way Peter phrased his bet suggested he couldn't understand how wrong the bookies had got the price and their Evens should be a 1/2 shot.

It's also completely out of sync with the £15 bets. We should be having more on those, unless I'm missing something, to bring them up to the same staking plan.

Not saying we don't follow him in but how wrong can the guy second on the grid being 50% of the market be?

[Doobs]

Anyone know what price Stoke went off today? Assuming it was 2/1+ given their spin quote for their season points after today.  They have probably got very close to their expected point total so far given their games yet are quoted at an incredibly low 41 points for the season.  Take out the 9 man freak show effort at home to wba and they would be comfortably in mid table totally in Line with expectation. Don't want to come across as bias but I am really struggling to see how Stoke are the fourth worst team in the epl at the end of the season given shawcross is close to returning.  I actually think given the run of fixtures we have started with alongside the injuries and bedding in new players six points from seven games given the wba 2 reds in the first half hour one off freak show is very reasonable.

lolbrokes have Stoke at 9/4 to go down,  once they put up their to stay up prices ( the inverse of the relegation prices to 108% in their standard two way match odds) I would expect to see 2/7 Stoke stay up - effectively laying Stoke at 7/2 to go down.  This is max bet material,

Stoke were 31/20 when I backed them. Think they were a tiny fraction higher on Betfair. I don't think they were 2/1 at any stage.

[Peter-27]

Pre-race bet suggestions:

Race Winner: Lewis Hamilton @ EVS with pretty much everyone. We're already on this bet, but EVS, even from P2, is huge! I'd say this is a £50 bet. Probably more actually, but I'm not comfortable recommending a bet over £50 at this stage.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/winner

Group C (GRO/PER/MAL/HUL): Sergio Perez @ 6/4 with 365. He should be the favourite in this group, suggest £15.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/group-c

Group D (SAI/VER/ERI/NAS): Carlos Sainz @ 5/6 with 365. Sauber aren't a threat in this group at all, and with five cars between Sainz and his team mate, the price shouldn't be this high. Suggest £15.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/group-d

Careful with the first one, Peter. One bookie getting it wrong is common, two or three possible, but all of them is rare. You may well still be right but don't empty the clip.

I did consider this before making the suggestion. However, it seems to me that the bookies are often wrong when it comes to Formula One. I'm not sure why that is really, sometimes it appears as if the bookies are going on results alone, and have no understanding of the technical side behind the sport. I have noticed a common theme that punters appear to believe the bookies are infallible, or nearly always right, but this is something I don't buy in to. At the end of the day, the price they offer is just an opinion (albeit a computerised one), exactly the same as mine. You could argue that the bookies do thorough in-depth analysis of trends over a given time frame, but they're not the only ones who can do this  

Pre-race bet suggestions:

Race Winner: Lewis Hamilton @ EVS with pretty much everyone. We're already on this bet, but EVS, even from P2, is huge! I'd say this is a £50 bet. Probably more actually, but I'm not comfortable recommending a bet over £50 at this stage.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/winner

Group C (GRO/PER/MAL/HUL): Sergio Perez @ 6/4 with 365. He should be the favourite in this group, suggest £15.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/group-c

Group D (SAI/VER/ERI/NAS): Carlos Sainz @ 5/6 with 365. Sauber aren't a threat in this group at all, and with five cars between Sainz and his team mate, the price shouldn't be this high. Suggest £15.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/group-d

Careful with the first one, Peter. One bookie getting it wrong is common, two or three possible, but all of them is rare. You may well still be right but don't empty the clip.

Peter knows this stuff better than the bookies imo.
Clip emptied

Thanks for the support, no pressure  

Pre-race bet suggestions:

Race Winner: Lewis Hamilton @ EVS with pretty much everyone. We're already on this bet, but EVS, even from P2, is huge! I'd say this is a £50 bet. Probably more actually, but I'm not comfortable recommending a bet over £50 at this stage.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/winner

Group C (GRO/PER/MAL/HUL): Sergio Perez @ 6/4 with 365. He should be the favourite in this group, suggest £15.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/group-c

Group D (SAI/VER/ERI/NAS): Carlos Sainz @ 5/6 with 365. Sauber aren't a threat in this group at all, and with five cars between Sainz and his team mate, the price shouldn't be this high. Suggest £15.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/group-d

Careful with the first one, Peter. One bookie getting it wrong is common, two or three possible, but all of them is rare. You may well still be right but don't empty the clip.

I don't see these comments when other people are saying max bet overs unders etc etc when lines are the same everywhere.

I agree with this, Peter has a pretty strong record of getting results on f1 provided you can get on with the firms he states.  No reason to not go with his opinion here.

I think what lets Peter down is his staking plan across bets.  This should be a £500 max bet for Fred given his spread betting staking plan. That is what makes people cautious on his more than decent f1 results.  

On a totally separate issue which is nothing to do with Peter Fred has a circa £10k roll. Every bet should be a minimum of £50 nowadays. The vast majority should be £100-£200 as standard bets with a max as £500.  I appreciate getting on is a problem but I think everyone should be talking in these terms just in case we can get on which in numerous cases we can but we don't.

I agree, my staking has many flaws. I usually just come to a stake recommendation based on the likelihood of the event happening, and the price given. My motorsport ROI for TFT is currently 12.81%, and my personal motorsport ROI is 32.04%, so I must be doing something right. Whether or not this could be higher with better staking, who knows? Would it be better if I put percentage chances of the bet suggestion happening instead - and letting people come to their own decision on stake size?

Pre-race bet suggestions:

Race Winner: Lewis Hamilton @ EVS with pretty much everyone. We're already on this bet, but EVS, even from P2, is huge! I'd say this is a £50 bet. Probably more actually, but I'm not comfortable recommending a bet over £50 at this stage.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/winner

Group C (GRO/PER/MAL/HUL): Sergio Perez @ 6/4 with 365. He should be the favourite in this group, suggest £15.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/group-c

Group D (SAI/VER/ERI/NAS): Carlos Sainz @ 5/6 with 365. Sauber aren't a threat in this group at all, and with five cars between Sainz and his team mate, the price shouldn't be this high. Suggest £15.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/japanese-grand-prix/group-d

Careful with the first one, Peter. One bookie getting it wrong is common, two or three possible, but all of them is rare. You may well still be right but don't empty the clip.

I don't see these comments when other people are saying max bet overs unders etc etc when lines are the same everywhere.

Behave!

I have and will continue to have my fair share of questions raised by other people on things I've posted ITT. Everything is up for discussion, isn't it? If I post three suggestions tomorrow and people say they're rubbish or need refinement, fine. It's opinions and how we all improve. Don't make it out to be anything personal because that isn't fair.

The way Peter phrased his bet suggested he couldn't understand how wrong the bookies had got the price and their Evens should be a 1/2 shot.

It's also completely out of sync with the £15 bets. We should be having more on those, unless I'm missing something, to bring them up to the same staking plan.

Not saying we don't follow him in but how wrong can the guy second on the grid being 50% of the market be?

I have no problem with the criticism, it helps me improve and I'm willing to learn from you guys .. plus, I like a good argument

It seems to me that you're focussing on the Hamilton bet suggestion. If the race ran 100 times, I'd say Hamilton would win 60, Nico 30, "The field" 10. Does that help at all? Probably confuses things even more!  

[Tal]

Fair enough, Peter. Lewis is favourite, so you and the bookies agree there.

Evens Lewis and 11/8 for Nico means they think it's more like 50, 40 and 10 the field, which is definitely enough for a bet. (Enough to lay Nico at 2.66 on the exchange?)

From what you have said, you clearly have more raw data than the bookies and you know what you're looking at, so keep posting. The thread needs more people contributing with that level of information and insight.  

Staking is critical to turn small profits into big ones. For recreational, flick it in lolpunters like me, it makes little difference, but it's a good habit to get into. For the serious guys, it's a big deal.

Anyway, I've posted enough today. Here's to a good race. Looking forward to seeing how Maldonado celebrates his new contract...unlike the other drivers.

[Peter-27]

Race over.

Not entirely sure if I should comment in case people are planning on watching the race replay on BBC later today 

[Pete2504]

Just been reading the comments about Stoke and see you can get 11/2 for a top ten finish with the Irish lot for those who can get on.  Generally around 5's elsewhere.  So given what has been stated, should this be considered as a bet?

[scotty2hatty]

Race over.

Not entirely sure if I should comment in case people are planning on watching the race replay on BBC later today 

Comment away. People will expect spoilers in such a thread.

[nellberg]

Lumiere is 14-1 for the 1000

That looks interesting, does it not?

Johnson is "sure she'll win the guineas" apparently. lolbrokes still 14's, everyone else 8,9,10's.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/report/693842/lumiere-lights-up-newmarket

[HutchGF]

Anyone know what price Stoke went off today? Assuming it was 2/1+ given their spin quote for their season points after today.  They have probably got very close to their expected point total so far given their games yet are quoted at an incredibly low 41 points for the season.  Take out the 9 man freak show effort at home to wba and they would be comfortably in mid table totally in Line with expectation. Don't want to come across as bias but I am really struggling to see how Stoke are the fourth worst team in the epl at the end of the season given shawcross is close to returning.  I actually think given the run of fixtures we have started with alongside the injuries and bedding in new players six points from seven games given the wba 2 reds in the first half hour one off freak show is very reasonable.

lolbrokes have Stoke at 9/4 to go down,  once they put up their to stay up prices ( the inverse of the relegation prices to 108% in their standard two way match odds) I would expect to see 2/7 Stoke stay up - effectively laying Stoke at 7/2 to go down.  This is max bet material,

Stoke were 31/20 when I backed them. Think they were a tiny fraction higher on Betfair. I don't think they were 2/1 at any stage.

Yeah, I got 31/20 yesterday on Stoke as well. Results-orientated bookies ftw.

[HutchGF]

Any American Football suggestions? Know little about the sport tbh but enjoyed the sweats last week.

[Tal]

Race over.

Not entirely sure if I should comment in case people are planning on watching the race replay on BBC later today 

Comment away. People will expect spoilers in such a thread.

Absolutely. Once it has been broadcast, it's definitely up for discussion.

Well done, Peter. Consistently excellent tips.

[Peter-27]

Race over.

Not entirely sure if I should comment in case people are planning on watching the race replay on BBC later today  

Comment away. People will expect spoilers in such a thread.

Absolutely. Once it has been broadcast, it's definitely up for discussion.

Well done, Peter. Consistently excellent tips.

Funny you should say that, I actually made a modest loss this weekend. But the tips the thread took were good