Tips for Tikay

[Ant040689]

I wouldn't mind watching press conferences and getting clearer team news, but just looking at the Palace odds at home to Soton I think they are too long. 2.62 available for the home win when i would have expected it closer to 2.35. Not exactly mind blowing value, but I was shocked considering how measly a price you got for Everton away recently.

Will pop back in later today or on Saturday morning, with more explained views (haha for you having to read that), but if any one else wants to chime in with a POV, be my guest.

[Tal]

King Lamela

Yes, we can remove the apostrophe before the K for today.

[Puts on Soccer Saturday presenter hat]

I can't believe people slag him off personally. I've always said he's a great player. It was only ever a matter of time. The press get wound up about immediate results and it's silly. He's a young lad who has all the pressure of a big price tag and now he's really starting to show his potential. Wenger should have got him when he had the chance because he'd be a great cover for Ozil.

Click to see full-size image.

[Tal]

Palmer is the first man over 4,000 and currently leading the NFL in passing yards.

Granted, he's played an extra game to Tom Brady and everyone else in contention, but it's nice to be in the sunshine for a couple of days.

Any Brady injuries out there?

[nellberg]

Australian big bash league starts next Thursday. Myriad of individual team markets, name the finalists etc that I haven't had time to work through yet but the bet I like from the offset is for Brisbane Heat to finish bottom.

On paper their squad seems pretty average and a lot will depend on their 2 overseas players , Simmons and Badree. Simmons has been having a lean time of it in the Bangladesh Premier league and Badree hasn't played since the Caribean Premier League in July. Out of their Aussie players, Chris Lynn's a dynamic batsman and will be their gun "home" player. Burns won't be available much due to international call-ups. Fekete was in the Aussie squad for the postponed tour to Bangladesh but has only played 4 T20 games ever, with poor results. Hopes is a solid player who was an international a while back, but the fact he's a key player still tells you how weak they are.  They''ll continue to talk up the likes of Reardon and Cutting but they flatter to deceive, Doolan's played a few tests but wouldn't be suited to this format and the bowling is seriously weak. They don't seem to be any better than last year, where Freddie Flintoff got a regular game as a publicity stunt before going in the jungle for the Aussie version of "I'm a celebrity". They were bottom last year, and haven't strengthened. They tried to sign Brendan McCullum but he pulled out due to international commitments so they were left scratching around for a replacement and Simmons was their man.

The side that are favourite to be bottom, and the team that have struggled in every year of the BBL so far is Sydney Thunder. This year they have been pro-active signing players and look to be a lot more stable. Overseas players are Kallis, who is still pretty dependable, and Andre Russell. Russell is a real x-factor player who has won games on his own in the IPL. He's been playing in the South African Ram Slam and is in good form with the bat, has chipped in with some wickets with the ball in his quick trip to Bangladesh and is an electric fielder. There main man this year will likely be Shane Watson. Free from international test commitments, he could be a huge player for them here. He'll be looking to contribute in order to win back his ODI place later on in the season. With the bat Michael Hussey is still capable and has played a T20 game in New Zealand recently to warm up for this. Hartley is a decent keeper and Blizzard can come off on his day. With the ball, if Pat Cummins is fit he'll be a real threat, Sandhu played a couple of ODI's this year for Australia, Mckay is solid and Mcdermott is well thought of. They look to have more depth than Brisbane.

Next in the betting is Adelaide Strikers. They topped the group last year and I'd reckon they would be strong enough to keep off the bottom. They rely on quick starts from their explosive openers Simmonds and Ludeman. After that they fall off a bit. Travis Head got a one-day double hundred this season so they'll hope he can convert that into some T20 form after some cameos last year. Without being big names, their middle order ticked over last year with Hodge, Dean and Ross contributing. The had planned on having Kieron Pollard in their team, but an injury 3 weeks ago scuppered that. Whilst he's a big loss, he only played 4 games for them last year so it'll not as bad as it first appears. The overseas players named are Adil Rashid and Mahela Jayawardene. Leg spinners have been key bowlers in this league on the big grounds out in Australia, so Rashid could play a strong role. Jayawardene obviously has a load of experience and will still be able to contribute despite his advancing years. With the ball Kane Richardson will be key in getting early breakthroughs, In Ben Laughlin they have the top wicket taker since the inception of BBL, so his experience will be useful. The loss of Johan Botha and Pollard from last team is big, but I'm doubtful they will drop from top to bottom in a year.

Next up is the Hobart Hurricanes. They look far too strong to come bottom. They have a boatload of experience throughout their squad. With the bat Bailey, Dunk, Paine, Bailey and Sangakkara can play to the conditions and should be able to produce competitive scores. They have Darren Sammy back from last year, when he was a huge success. Dan Christian is also a good all-round cricketer, Shaun Tait will have days where he blows a side away, Cameron Boyce is the current Aussie T20I spinner and non-international guys like Wells and Reed stepped up at times last year. Maybe they are a little light with the ball, but the have good depth with the bat and 2 good all-rounders so I'd be surprised if they struggled badly.

The Sixers have always went well in this comp, and I don't see why that would change this season. On paper it's another strong squad for them, with the additions of Johan Botha and Jackson Bird. They'll not see much of Steve Smith, Josh Hazlewood or Nathan Lyon but Haddin will be available for the full competition and they can call on the likes of Henriques, Abbott, Bollinger, Carters, Cowan, Lumb, Maddinson, O'Keefe and Silk. Their weakness may be having to throw some youngsters in with the ball but they have a wealth of experience in T20 cricket and a powerful batting line-up.

The Renegades used to be whipping boys also, and struggled as the "2nd team in the big city", like Sydney Thunder have. They've steadily got stronger, and this year have Chris Gayle to open up with Aaron Finch at the smallest ground in the league . Cooper, Ferguson and Wade add some depth to the batting if the big 2 fail, Dwayne Bravo is a top T20 all-rounder and Doherty is still a canny spinner. With Pattinson and Siddle in the test side they may lack a bit of incision with the ball (like many sides) and they could end up being involved in some high-scoring games, but their batting alone should be enough to get them the wins required to keep them off the bottom.

The Melbourne Stars have been favourites for every edition of the BBL, and have faltered in the play-off's every year. They again look very strong and it'll be a shock if they don't again make the play-off's, and coming bottom would be a real shocker. Their squad is strong as always, with batsman like David Hussey, Handscomb, Maxwell, Kevin Pieterson, Quinney, Stoinis and Luke Wright. With the ball Beer, Boland, Faulkner, Hastings, Hilfanhaus and Zampa mean they have pretty much every base covered.

Last year's winners were Perth Scorchers, continuing their consistent profile as a team to beat in this format. International call-up's will mean they won't see much of Voges or the Marsh brothers, but they have enough depth to overcome that and will again likely make the play-off's. Justin Langer as coach has them well-drilled and their squad includes the likes of Agar, Bancroft (next test opener), Behrendorff (sensation last year), Michael Carberry, Coulter-Nile, Hogg, Klinger, Muirfield, Paris, Tye, Whiteman and impressive English white-ball cricket David Willey.

It's only an 8-game season, and T20 cricket is a pretty volatile format, so lets' not go crazy, but Brisbane Heat look up against it from the start and I thought they should be favourites to come bottom. Hopefully we'll get a good sweat out of it.

Recommend £20 on Brisbane heat to come bottom of the Big Bash, Bettysb, 9/2.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-big-bash/to-finish-bottom

[TightEnd]

thanks

don't see many write ups like that these days, unfortunately


T20 Big Bash League 2015/16

    9/2
    £20
    £110.00
    Brisbane Heat
    Team to Finish Bottom of The Table

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000177

[tikay]

Lovely write up Nelly, thank you.

Proper job, that.

[maldini32]

That's a great write up.

I like the Renegades for the outright. It will be interesting to see if Willey opens or not as he's a huge price to top score for the scorchers.

Also like Rashid, Badree and Boyce top wicket takers for their respective sides, leggies are worth their weight in gold in this format.

[maldini32]

Edit ignore Willey, could have sworn he was 66s few days ago

[Tal]

Odd one and too late for most but there's a horse in the 7:10 at Wolverhampton called Sewn Up.

I say odd because it's 9/2 with Hills and 8/1 with BFSB and no two bookies are the same price; everyone somewhere between.

Now 9 from 12 on the exchange in the last 2 minutes.

What's this all about?

[arbboy]

Odd one and too late for most but there's a horse in the 7:10 at Wolverhampton called Sewn Up.

I say odd because it's 9/2 with Hills and 8/1 with BFSB and no two bookies are the same price; everyone somewhere between.

Now 9 from 12 on the exchange in the last 2 minutes.

What's this all about?

Just a friendless one i would imagine where some firms are fast asleep and haven't adjusted the early price whereas some have and pushed it out but kept it under betfair still i would imagine.  Nothing too dodgy imo.

[Tal]

Odd one and too late for most but there's a horse in the 7:10 at Wolverhampton called Sewn Up.

I say odd because it's 9/2 with Hills and 8/1 with BFSB and no two bookies are the same price; everyone somewhere between.

Now 9 from 12 on the exchange in the last 2 minutes.

What's this all about?

Just a friendless one i would imagine where some firms are fast asleep and haven't adjusted the early price whereas some have and pushed it out but kept it under betfair still i would imagine.  Nothing too dodgy imo.

Horse and jockey decided midfield was best anyway. Finished fourth.

In the words of our protagonist, as you were.

[Ant040689]

Before I put up my bet suggestion, any ideas on how Southampton like to set up away from home?

If they set up like Sunderland did recently to frustrate, playing negatively and ultra defensively then they may dismantle us as we struggle with what to do, but if they play 'normally' there should be value in a Palace bet.

[TheDazzler]

Before I put up my bet suggestion, any ideas on how Southampton like to set up away from home?

If they set up like Sunderland did recently to frustrate, playing negatively and ultra defensively then they may dismantle us as we struggle with what to do, but if they play 'normally' there should be value in a Palace bet.

I think they are likely to play more defensively as they have had a poor run and Koeman has bemoaned the lack of balance between attack and defence.
http://www.teamtalk.com/news/koeman-balance-between-attack-and-defence-really-poor
He has played Yoshida at RB ahead of Cedric Soares a couple of times as he doesn't fancy Soares defensively. However Yoshida isn't great there either. It was his mistake whilst playing RB at Man City that led to the opening goal.
Whoever he plays there, it will be a key matchup against Puncheon(?).

[Ant040689]

Before I put up my bet suggestion, any ideas on how Southampton like to set up away from home?

If they set up like Sunderland did recently to frustrate, playing negatively and ultra defensively then they may dismantle us as we struggle with what to do, but if they play 'normally' there should be value in a Palace bet.

I think they are likely to play more defensively as they have had a poor run and Koeman has bemoaned the lack of balance between attack and defence.
http://www.teamtalk.com/news/koeman-balance-between-attack-and-defence-really-poor
He has played Yoshida at RB ahead of Cedric Soares a couple of times as he doesn't fancy Soares defensively. However Yoshida isn't great there either. It was his mistake whilst playing RB at Man City that led to the opening goal.
Whoever he plays there, it will be a key matchup against Puncheon(?).

Forgot about that with Yoshida, ta for the help.

It will probs be McCarthur and Cabaye sitting with Zaha and Bolasie hugging the wings, Puncheon CAM and Wickham up top on his own.

My write up before i backed off for help was about our potent wing threat, and with Yoshida at RB and the price being generous anyway, despite them possibly playing negatively which often frustrates Palace, I am going to post what I was originally going to put up.

[Ant040689]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-southampton/winner

Suggest £40 or whatever you want, on Palace to win tomorrow at odds of better than 2.35. So if you have active bookies at 2.5 and above i suggest go with it.

Palace still don't have a goalscoring threat from the striking position and with every game I see Wickham I love the fact he can hold the ball up but i just see oafishness. I hope that if/when he gets his first goal he can look to thrive in a system I think is a dream for the sole striker. Soaure, Bolasie and Zaha always looking to bang in crosses and I think Wickham is taking his time to get back into things, but could well never fit in, who knows right now.

I think Zaha was a huge miss away to Everton. We were under the cosh for the majority and I think it was partly because we didn't have the double wide flair threat of those Zaha/Bolasie which meant more counter attacks than we are used to were breaking down as we couldn't hit both sides. I think Palace would be clever in buying another flair type expensive winger to really hone in on our system's threat, the wide players, because when one of them is missing, it completely hampers our game and we have to hold on at times against greater opposition.

It also highlighted just how off form Puncheon has been this season and I really hope Chamakh can be trusted to play a run of games despite his dodgy hammy because I think he has been a wonderful number 10 for us when playing which may surprise a few on here.

Onto the bet, I think there could be value here in how our home form is seen as poor, despite close negative results without a target man striker for most of it, so really I don't think we have played that badly.

Southampton have been iffy recently, but do contest in tight away games generally aside from the last away to Man City.

I just count on Palace's wing players being too much for Southampton to handle, with both playing and going for it, they are hard to maintain. Palace are incredible currently at defending set pieces and are great at converting from them too which could help decide a tight affair also.