Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Are Villa as bad as Derby 2007/8?  This is happening under a new manager last few weeks and there has been no bounce factor at all.   Can't be that unlikely that another gaffer comes in for the transfer window given how little response this French guy has got.

they haven't got enough scrappers have they?

january transfer window, but who is going to go there? (at least without a relegation release clause...)

[arbboy]

Are Villa as bad as Derby 2007/8?  This is happening under a new manager last few weeks and there has been no bounce factor at all.   Can't be that unlikely that another gaffer comes in for the transfer window given how little response this French guy has got.

they haven't got enough scrappers have they?

january transfer window, but who is going to go there? (at least without a relegation release clause...)

The owner looks like he has given up and is not even trying to keep them in the EPL before selling.  The squad is terrible talent wise and, like you say, just doesn't put a shift in.

[Tal]

My final one for the day is the weekly player prop. It's a Bills player, so you may have to take it with a pinch of salt, but here goes.

The Eagles have struggled against opposing teams' top wide receivers. Sammy Watkins had a bit of a moan at the Buffalo coaching staff about his level of targets in games and, wouldn't you believe it, he started getting more balls thrown his way. Well, today, he gets a cornerback who is far from elite and is playing poorly. Philly are giving up 91 yards against opposing WR1s this season and Sammy's last two games (against teams who have good records against WR1s) have been 158 and 109 yards through the air.

The tactic has been to get him 1 on 1 and running deep and hard. They want him to torch the guy marking him with raw pace and power. The number two wideout, Robert Woods, has been put into a marking and blocking role more of late, designed to make space for Watkins and others. The Eagles are good deep in the centre but weak out wide. This is exactly where Watkins will be running, hoggng the touchline.

I was expecting a line in the mid 80s, which would reflect the fact we will be running the ball a lot, but the poor Philly offense and their no-huddle style means the other team gets more time on the field. Plus, if the strategy is deep, it's one or two plays to get near that kind of number.

BMU is 72.5.



This must be an over. Recommend £40 at 17/20.

[Tal]

I'm surprised to see Julius Thomas as big as 6/4 to score a touchdown today for Jacksonville against Indy. Only seven teams have allowed more touchdowns through the air and they are 18th in yards against tight ends. Thomas has found the endzone in the last three weeks and it should be a game where the ball is airborne a lot.

This price is with Ceefax Page 888 or Unique Bet (which I seem to recall Fred can bet with)

Any use for £20?

7/5 best for us at the moment if you want to do it

I've bet it myself. Is it too obvious, tighty?

[TightEnd]

Over Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles Total Receiving Yds - Sammy Watkins
17/20
Total Stake: £40.00
Potential Returns: £74.00

Julius Thomas Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars Anytime Touchdown Scorer
7/5
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £48.00

[fatcatstu]

With Philip Rivers playing (albeit through the 'flu, as if carrying his franchise wasn't enough of a burden), what do you make of a 10.5 point head start at home against the Chiefs?

Chiefs are playing excellent footbawl at the moment, but aren't blowing teams away.

Divisional game, at home and double digit underdogs.

Just interested in views.

the weather is horrendous. heavy rain storms


what would you make the ravens points line at home to the seahawks with their 3rd string jimmy clausen at quarterback? rookie at running back, number one receiver missing...

where would you set the over/under for points?  no looking

seattle are 11 point road favourites fwiw

Really toyed with this one. The problem is the teams are going in very different directions (Football Outsiders says so). There's a chance the Ravens are playing for the number one pick, as they have the toughest remaining schedule and running out of offense. Seahawks can score 24 points now against anyone and that puts the line under threat.

Think it's where I put the line tbh.

As a chargers fan, I can see us getting spanked here, properly pants down jolly good thrashing style. I would want at least +17, we are that bad.

I also cant see the Ravens scoring more than 10 points v the Seahawks, if they even get that high. I would put the overall line at 34

[TightEnd]

With Philip Rivers playing (albeit through the 'flu, as if carrying his franchise wasn't enough of a burden), what do you make of a 10.5 point head start at home against the Chiefs?

Chiefs are playing excellent footbawl at the moment, but aren't blowing teams away.

Divisional game, at home and double digit underdogs.

Just interested in views.

the weather is horrendous. heavy rain storms


what would you make the ravens points line at home to the seahawks with their 3rd string jimmy clausen at quarterback? rookie at running back, number one receiver missing...

where would you set the over/under for points?  no looking

seattle are 11 point road favourites fwiw

Really toyed with this one. The problem is the teams are going in very different directions (Football Outsiders says so). There's a chance the Ravens are playing for the number one pick, as they have the toughest remaining schedule and running out of offense. Seahawks can score 24 points now against anyone and that puts the line under threat.

Think it's where I put the line tbh.

As a chargers fan, I can see us getting spanked here, properly pants down jolly good thrashing style. I would want at least +17, we are that bad.

I also cant see the Ravens scoring more than 10 points v the Seahawks, if they even get that high. I would put the overall line at 34

the ravens are in for 14 points.

dallas are in for 18 at lambeau, with near certain rain and cassel at quarterback and no flair in offensive play-calling

i think both are unders

[Karabiner]

Are Villa as bad as Derby 2007/8?  This is happening under a new manager last few weeks and there has been no bounce factor at all.   Can't be that unlikely that another gaffer comes in for the transfer window given how little response this French guy has got.

they haven't got enough scrappers have they?

january transfer window, but who is going to go there? (at least without a relegation release clause...)

The owner looks like he has given up and is not even trying to keep them in the EPL before selling.  The squad is terrible talent wise and, like you say, just doesn't put a shift in.

They did spend a bit of money in the summer though.

Curiously Sherwood bought three players called Jordan for ~£8M each.

[horseplayer]

Don't think villa are certs at all for the drop

Got enough talent most in first season and good players a couple of them click and they have a chance

[arbboy]

Don't think villa are certs at all for the drop

Got enough talent most in first season and good players a couple of them click and they have a chance

Where are the goals coming from?  They must have one of the worse combined strike forces in EPL history.  13 goals in 16 games (joint bottom with Stoke this season - so much for this new found Hughes attacking genius).  Even Sunderland have got Defoe and Fletcher.

[fatcatstu]

With Philip Rivers playing (albeit through the 'flu, as if carrying his franchise wasn't enough of a burden), what do you make of a 10.5 point head start at home against the Chiefs?

Chiefs are playing excellent footbawl at the moment, but aren't blowing teams away.

Divisional game, at home and double digit underdogs.

Just interested in views.

the weather is horrendous. heavy rain storms


what would you make the ravens points line at home to the seahawks with their 3rd string jimmy clausen at quarterback? rookie at running back, number one receiver missing...

where would you set the over/under for points?  no looking

seattle are 11 point road favourites fwiw

Really toyed with this one. The problem is the teams are going in very different directions (Football Outsiders says so). There's a chance the Ravens are playing for the number one pick, as they have the toughest remaining schedule and running out of offense. Seahawks can score 24 points now against anyone and that puts the line under threat.

Think it's where I put the line tbh.

As a chargers fan, I can see us getting spanked here, properly pants down jolly good thrashing style. I would want at least +17, we are that bad.

I also cant see the Ravens scoring more than 10 points v the Seahawks, if they even get that high. I would put the overall line at 34

the ravens are in for 14 points.

dallas are in for 18 at lambeau, with near certain rain and cassel at quarterback and no flair in offensive play-calling

i think both are unders

Would agree with that definitely.

[arbboy]

Anyone want to win the EPL this season?  Might be won with sub 70 points at this rate.

[Tal]

Anyone want to win the EPL this season?  Might be won with sub 70 points at this rate.

We never did tbf and no one thinks Liverpool are doing it.

Still doesn't stop me being ever so slightly disappointed.

[Tal]

My final one for the day is the weekly player prop. It's a Bills player, so you may have to take it with a pinch of salt, but here goes.

The Eagles have struggled against opposing teams' top wide receivers. Sammy Watkins had a bit of a moan at the Buffalo coaching staff about his level of targets in games and, wouldn't you believe it, he started getting more balls thrown his way. Well, today, he gets a cornerback who is far from elite and is playing poorly. Philly are giving up 91 yards against opposing WR1s this season and Sammy's last two games (against teams who have good records against WR1s) have been 158 and 109 yards through the air.

The tactic has been to get him 1 on 1 and running deep and hard. They want him to torch the guy marking him with raw pace and power. The number two wideout, Robert Woods, has been put into a marking and blocking role more of late, designed to make space for Watkins and others. The Eagles are good deep in the centre but weak out wide. This is exactly where Watkins will be running, hoggng the touchline.

I was expecting a line in the mid 80s, which would reflect the fact we will be running the ball a lot, but the poor Philly offense and their no-huddle style means the other team gets more time on the field. Plus, if the strategy is deep, it's one or two plays to get near that kind of number.

BMU is 72.5.



This must be an over. Recommend £40 at 17/20.

A big play wide right gets Watkins up to 51 receiving yards. Still 8 minutes left of the first quarter.

Let's unsweatify this completely, please, Sammy.

[fatcatstu]

Doug is half way there at half time, and has only had 3 receptions, hopeful that with Rawls out, he may see some more action in the second half.