Tips for Tikay

[TheDazzler]

and, while i am blitzing some thoughts

people who watch chelsea, perhaps fantasy football afficianados

which defenders are up for corners?

assume

azpi, zouma, cahill and ivanovic is the back four

the biggest set piece threats are?

thanks (its leicester's biggest weakness, small side)

Yes, I think Leicester have conceded the most from set pieces this season?
I'd imagine it'll be Zouma/Terry in the centre. Zouma I think is certain but he may prefer Cahill over Terry if pace is a concern.
You can get 40/1 Zouma, 34.0 on Terry but you may want to wait for the team news on him.

[TightEnd]

and, while i am blitzing some thoughts

people who watch chelsea, perhaps fantasy football afficianados

which defenders are up for corners?

assume

azpi, zouma, cahill and ivanovic is the back four

the biggest set piece threats are?

thanks (its leicester's biggest weakness, small side)

Yes, I think Leicester have conceded the most from set pieces this season?
I'd imagine it'll be Zouma/Terry in the centre. Zouma I think is certain but he may prefer Cahill over Terry if pace is a concern.
You can get 40/1 Zouma, 34.0 on Terry but you may want to wait for the team news on him.

thank you yes

We are small. Aside from Morgan and Huth we don't have any height in the side if Ulloa doesnt play

Sometimes we zonal mark, sometimes we attempt man to man but neither seems that secure for us. frequently done on the near post from inswinging corners. I had it in my mind somewhere that matic pops up on near post corners, but that may be me inventing something to confirm a bias i have

i thought tonight he wouldn't play terry against vardy, but i might have a few quid on chelsea centre-backs anytime when the team comes through, if i can get wifi in the ground

[TheDazzler]

and, while i am blitzing some thoughts

people who watch chelsea, perhaps fantasy football afficianados

which defenders are up for corners?

assume

azpi, zouma, cahill and ivanovic is the back four

the biggest set piece threats are?

thanks (its leicester's biggest weakness, small side)

Yes, I think Leicester have conceded the most from set pieces this season?
I'd imagine it'll be Zouma/Terry in the centre. Zouma I think is certain but he may prefer Cahill over Terry if pace is a concern.
You can get 40/1 Zouma, 34.0 on Terry but you may want to wait for the team news on him.

thank you yes

We are small. Aside from Morgan and Huth we don't have any height in the side if Ulloa doesnt play

Sometimes we zonal mark, sometimes we attempt man to man but neither seems that secure for us. frequently done on the near post from inswinging corners. I had it in my mind somewhere that matic pops up on near post corners, but that may be me inventing something to confirm a bias i have

i thought tonight he wouldn't play terry against vardy, but i might have a few quid on chelsea centre-backs anytime when the team comes through, if i can get wifi in the ground

It's interesting you mentioned it as I've been waiting a couple of weeks for this game, for the very same reason you've mentioned.
I've already backed Zouma.
It could indeed be Matic who gets there. Mourinho has a thing about always playing 5 tall players.
http://weaintgotnohistory.sbnation.com/2015/10/5/9453603/mourinho-ivanovic-baba-rahman
So Leicester may concentrate on Zouma/Terry and another tall player might be marked by someone smaller.

[TightEnd]

Miami Dolphins v The Giants

Last week, the Dolphins decided that they needed to run the ball more, and for the first time this season they gave Lamaar Miller 20 carries. He took them for over 100 yards and the Dolphins managed to win a game of football!
Their new offensive coach likes to go run heavy, so much so that Tannehill only threw for 80 yards in the game!

This brings us to his matchup against the Giants.

New York's pass defence is what people usually focus on, they do tend to concede a fair few yards through the air, but they also give away over 100 yards rushing a game, and I think that Miami will be punding the ball again, then using the deep threats of Landry and Parker rather than concentrating on shorter passes.

Miller has his line set at what looks like a shockingly low 65.5 for this game. If he sees anywhere near 20 carries he will sail past this mark.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-york-giants-at-miami-dolphins/total-rushing-yds-lamar-miller

Recommend £60 (or whatever we can get if restricted) on Lamaar Miller OVER 65.5 yards

Over 65.5
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins Total Rushing Yds - Lamar Miller
10/11
Total Stake: £44.00
Potential Returns: £84.04

[DMorgan]

Thoughts on Leicester to finish bottom half at 8/1 with scuy, 7/1 with baldy and red shouty man?

Looking at the last 6 seasons you'd need 45-46 points to miss the top 10, Leicester have 32 with 21 games left.

[TightEnd]

Thoughts on Leicester to finish bottom half at 8/1 with scuy, 7/1 with baldy and red shouty man?

Looking at the last 6 seasons you'd need 45-46 points to miss the top 10, Leicester have 32 with 21 games left.

!

that would be some collapse

14 points or less from the last 21 games?

[JoeBeevers]

Not for Fred but Skie are 5/4 MvG
2.04/2.06 on the machine.

[DMorgan]

Thoughts on Leicester to finish bottom half at 8/1 with scuy, 7/1 with baldy and red shouty man?

Looking at the last 6 seasons you'd need 45-46 points to miss the top 10, Leicester have 32 with 21 games left.

!

that would be some collapse

14 points or less from the last 21 games?

It would, but aren't most of the rest of the likely top 10 teams going to outspending Leicester in the transfer window?

Its a stretch for sure, but 8/1 might have some wiggle room, genuinely opening it up for discussion, not trying to troll the Leicester faithful

[TightEnd]

Strictly final

format

"The Grand Final

The Grand Final of Strictly Come Dancing 2014 will be on Saturday 20th December. The four remaining couples will all dance again but this time the judges' scores will be for reference only. The eliminations and the ultimate winner of Strictly Come Dancing 2014 will be decided purely by the public vote.

The vote will open after all couples have danced for the first time. The vote will then be frozen at a time announced on the programme. The couple with the fewest votes at this point will be eliminated at the start of the results show (on that same day).

In the very unlikely event of two couples being tied at the bottom of the phone vote, Head Judge Len Goodman will have the casting vote so that one couple will still be eliminated. The vote will then be reopened but all the votes already cast for the remaining couples will still count and will be carried over.

The three remaining couples will dance once more for your votes in the results show before the vote is closed and the winner announced."


as has been discussed on here, Jay can stand still for two minutes and win such is his adulation by the voting public

my interest is the next elimination

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/strictly-come-dancing/next-elimination

shouldn't PoshandBeke be much shorter?

weakest dancer of the four remaining
in the bottom two last week and although it is only for guidance going to be bottom of the judges scores
each of the other three have fan bases..

before i looked i had Derham in the region of 1/2 next out, possibly shorter......

[TheDazzler]

Thoughts on Leicester to finish bottom half at 8/1 with scuy, 7/1 with baldy and red shouty man?

Looking at the last 6 seasons you'd need 45-46 points to miss the top 10, Leicester have 32 with 21 games left.

!

that would be some collapse

14 points or less from the last 21 games?

It would, but aren't most of the rest of the likely top 10 teams going to outspending Leicester in the transfer window?

Its a stretch for sure, but 8/1 might have some wiggle room, genuinely opening it up for discussion, not trying to troll the Leicester faithful

If you think they may collapse, I'd say it might be better selling their points on the spreads. They do have a very tough schedule coming up. If it turns out as tough as it might, you could cash in after this run is over.

14 Dec 20:00     Gameweek 16   Chelsea (H)
19 Dec 15:00   Gameweek 17   Everton (A)
26 Dec 15:00   Gameweek 18   Liverpool (A)
29 Dec 19:45   Gameweek 19   Man City (H)
02 Jan 15:00   Gameweek 20   Bournemouth (H)
13 Jan 20:00   Gameweek 21   Spurs (A)
16 Jan 17:30   Gameweek 22   Aston Villa (A)
23 Jan 15:00   Gameweek 23   Stoke (H)
02 Feb 19:45   Gameweek 24   Liverpool (H)
06 Feb 15:00   Gameweek 25   Man City (A)
13 Feb 15:00   Gameweek 26   Arsenal (A)

[DMorgan]

Not for Fred but Skie are 5/4 MvG
2.04/2.06 on the machine.

Thanks Joe

Not sure if my account is 100% clean, had some restrictions on NFL submarkets before but they'll lay £200 @ 5/4

lmk if Fred wants any, up to £100 is fine

[TightEnd]

Thoughts on Leicester to finish bottom half at 8/1 with scuy, 7/1 with baldy and red shouty man?

Looking at the last 6 seasons you'd need 45-46 points to miss the top 10, Leicester have 32 with 21 games left.

!

that would be some collapse

14 points or less from the last 21 games?

It would, but aren't most of the rest of the likely top 10 teams going to outspending Leicester in the transfer window?

Its a stretch for sure, but 8/1 might have some wiggle room, genuinely opening it up for discussion, not trying to troll the Leicester faithful

thats fine

i wrote about it last friday and out today also (not behind a paywall)

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/public/football/article4640097.ece

interesting stuff in here on the sports science effort, lack of injuries (which isn't the complete chance that many think it is, for some types of injuries) and chance creation stats

i think we'll finish 6th-8th assuming some regression to the mean and the bigger clubs in better form

from here 55 points seems reasonable or a point a game/seven-eight wins

the way the middle of the table is more competitive with the top suggests fewer points to win the league, reach top 4, reach top 6 etc as the middle ranking sides now all have game changing players

[TightEnd]

Not for Fred but Skie are 5/4 MvG
2.04/2.06 on the machine.

Thanks Joe

Not sure if my account is 100% clean, had some restrictions on NFL submarkets before but they'll lay £200 @ 5/4

lmk if Fred wants any, up to £100 is fine

thank you for the offer, but i think we have to leave sky well alone, even if through a kind offer from someone placing it for us, because of tikay's conflict of interest

of course with the PDC starting this week we are open for business on anything anyone sees..matches, sub-markets, quarters etc etc

[tikay]

Not for Fred but Skie are 5/4 MvG
2.04/2.06 on the machine.

Thanks Joe

Not sure if my account is 100% clean, had some restrictions on NFL submarkets before but they'll lay £200 @ 5/4

lmk if Fred wants any, up to £100 is fine

thank you for the offer, but i think we have to leave sky well alone, even if through a kind offer from someone placing it for us, because of tikay's conflict of interest

of course with the PDC starting this week we are open for business on anything anyone sees..matches, sub-markets, quarters etc etc

Yes, that has to be the case I'm afraid, as it would amount to the same thing - betting with Scuy, & I cannot allow or do that.

Appreciate the offer though, thank you.

[Doobs]

Strictly final

format

"The Grand Final

The Grand Final of Strictly Come Dancing 2014 will be on Saturday 20th December. The four remaining couples will all dance again but this time the judges' scores will be for reference only. The eliminations and the ultimate winner of Strictly Come Dancing 2014 will be decided purely by the public vote.

The vote will open after all couples have danced for the first time. The vote will then be frozen at a time announced on the programme. The couple with the fewest votes at this point will be eliminated at the start of the results show (on that same day).

In the very unlikely event of two couples being tied at the bottom of the phone vote, Head Judge Len Goodman will have the casting vote so that one couple will still be eliminated. The vote will then be reopened but all the votes already cast for the remaining couples will still count and will be carried over.

The three remaining couples will dance once more for your votes in the results show before the vote is closed and the winner announced."


as has been discussed on here, Jay can stand still for two minutes and win such is his adulation by the voting public

my interest is the next elimination

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/strictly-come-dancing/next-elimination

shouldn't PoshandBeke be much shorter?

weakest dancer of the four remaining
in the bottom two last week and although it is only for guidance going to be bottom of the judges scores
each of the other three have fan bases..

before i looked i had Derham in the region of 1/2 next out, possibly shorter......

I'd have put it as a near flip.  1/2 seems a bit off to me. Kellie and Kevin have been bottom 2 at least twice despite scoring well throughout.  This week it must have been near impossible for Anton/Katie to avoid the dance off after finishing last and Jay getting the mandatory 5 from the viewers. 

I think 7/4 Kellie and Kevin is too big and have bet accordingly. 

All seems very predictable after the near flip at the start with G and G plucky losers.