Tips for Tikay

[nellberg]

Tighty (and any other cricket fans for that matter)

England's ODI series in South Africa starts on Wednesday. South Africa are struggling to get a half-decent bowling attack due to injury. Steyn, Philander and Abbott are all missing, and it looks likely they'll miss the entire series. Morne Morkel is "in the red zone" workload-wise, so will be rested at some stage. They've also said they'll look after new superstar Rabada, who had to do a lot of bowling in the 4th test. Add into the mix that Albie Morkel has a back complaint so will miss at least the 1st ODI and they are seriously short of bowling options. Tahir is a lock to play all the games I'd imagine, and the other bowlers are Morris (who struggled in the tests) and De Lange (who struggled for South Africa A against us). If (and when) they get desperate they'll have to look at the likes of Viljoen, Wiese and Phangiso, who all copped some stick in our recent warm-up game against South Africa A. They have a strong, settled batting line up with De Kock, Amla, Du Plessis, De Villiers and MIller having very good ODI records but I think they'll struggle to contain England given their lack of bowling options. England are 7/4 for the series win (5 match series) and given we could be up against a 2nd string attack towards the back-end of the series that looks decent value.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/south-africa-v-england/south-africa-england-odi-series/series-winner

The other way we could play it is to back Tahir to be top wicket taker for South Africa. Positives for the bet is that he should play all 5 games. He's their number 1 limited over spinner and has done a decent job for them in the past. He could be the only bowler to play all 5 games. English batsman historically struggle against wrist spin. He recently took a 8-for in first class cricket (12 in the match) so he's bringing some form into this series. A negative would be the pitches out suit seamers more than spinners, but he's taken 16 wickets in 9 innings in home ODI's so he's still a threat. Tahir is a 10/3 shot here.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/south-africa-v-england/south-africa-england-odi-series/top-south-africa-bowler

Thoughts?

http://www.espncricinfo.com/south-africa-v-england-2015-16/content/story/967631.html

i like England to win the series as underdogs

I like england 3-2, specifically

England have the batting line up to match the south africans

England's bowling looks in better shape than the south Africans with all the injuries and rest for morkel/rabada likely

As for Tahir, maybe but not likely to be much to help him in the pitches.

3-2 is 11/4, so a full point bigger than the outright. If we are going to win, 3-2 would obviously be the most likely scoreline. What happens to a correct score bet if a game is rained off? do they have reserve days for these games?

[Tal]

Brunton Park is a longer way from Everton than I thought.

Thanks for the information, Fox Sports USA.

Click to see full-size image.

[nellberg]

The tahir bet makes massive sense as does all of your stuff nel. Agreed that he seems a big odds on shot to play all 5 which should be enough 

Keep it up brilliant write ups

Thank you very much. I'd originally went in with the thought that Rabada would be my pick, then read they'd manage his workload. Don't know if that means they'll play him 3 games (one in, one out), 4 games (first 2, last 2) or play it by ear depending on results. If Rabada was to play 4 he'd be in with a shout still, so we're trying to 2nd guess their selectors a little bit.

[TightEnd]

no reserve days as far as i know, if there were the teams would be struggling to get from venue to venue given the rapid schedule

then again, not too much risk of getting less than 10 overs per side in at any venue either

[tikay]

If we are going to win, 3-2 would obviously be the most likely scoreline (Nelly)

I like england 3-2, specifically (Tighty)

Can you explain that to me, please? Why "specifically" & "most likely"?

[TightEnd]

two reasonably closely matched teams in a five match series where weather is unlikely to intervene

the format, not so much as T20 but more than tests, creates some random results and variance because the regulations can make winning the toss important eg powerplays, batting second under lights (think three of these are day-nighters) can be a disadvantage

iirc, saw the stat recently but don't recall it exactly but something like 60%+ as opposed to 52% prior to these regs, in day-nighters a disproportionate amount of games outside England are won by the team winning the toss/batting/300+/tough to chase down

i would therefore be surprised if one team dominates and won 4 out of 5. 5 out of 5 less so

therefore 3-2 seems most likely

SA are odds on at home, but the Eng ODI team is playing more "modern" cricket since their world cup disaster a year ago with plenty of big hitting batsmen, great fielding and SA are injury hit in the bowling ranks and wanting to rest rabada/morkel ahead of the world T20 next month too

therefore Eng look interesting value, Eng 3-2 the most likely winning score if they are to win the series

[nellberg]

two reasonably closely matched teams in a five match series where weather is unlikely to intervene

the format, not so much as T20 but more than tests, creates some random results and variance because the regulations can make winning the toss important eg powerplays, batting second under lights (think three of these are day-nighters) can be a disadvantage

iirc, saw the stat recently but don't recall it exactly but something like 60%+ as opposed to 52% prior to these regs, in day-nighters a disproportionate amount of games outside England are won by the team winning the toss/batting/300+/tough to chase down

i would therefore be surprised if one team dominates and won 4 out of 5. 5 out of 5 less so

therefore 3-2 seems most likely

SA are odds on at home, but the Eng ODI team is playing more "modern" cricket since their world cup disaster a year ago with plenty of big hitting batsmen, great fielding and SA are injury hit in the bowling ranks and wanting to rest rabada/morkel ahead of the world T20 next month too

therefore Eng look interesting value, Eng 3-2 the most likely winning score if they are to win the series

Yeh, I can't see either side dominating the series. If the Saffers win 4-1 with this bowling attack their batting would have had to be unreal. England are still a little inconsistent, as you'd expect with a young side playing the kind of aggressive cricket that's needed to be successful these days, so 4-1 to us would be surprising.

From a purely betting point of view, Eng 3-2 is 11/4, 4-1 is as big as 8/1.

[Chompy]

Can't find a market for 'who signs most players on DD' on Oddschecker, but have found prices with Lads and BFSB. Seems like three will be enough?

[horseplayer]

Not half bad for 7 million Tal?

[horseplayer]

In other news spurs related this man has left to join Werder Bremen. No surprise to see a low buy back clause included think he could be the real deal with time.

[Tal]

Not half bad for 7 million Tal?

We have spent more on worse. I'll give you that.

5m for Alli tho...

[Tal]

In other news spurs related this man has left to join Werder Bremen. No surprise to see a low buy back clause included think he could be the real deal with time.

That'd be cheeky as I think he was out of contract at the end of the season.

[horseplayer]

In other news spurs related this man has left to join Werder Bremen. No surprise to see a low buy back clause included think he could be the real deal with time.

That'd be cheeky as I think he was out of contract at the end of the season.

Yep he was big percentage sell on as well. Poch didnt rate him by all accounts was plenty of interest in him though a good move for him should play all the time and then who knows

[Chompy]

Super Bowl half-time show...

http://www.pepsi.com/en-us/featured/rehearsing-for-pepsi-halftime

Looks like Chrissy boy is going to be tinkling the ivories at some point. More likely to start off at the piano before getting up and doing his weirdo dancing than starting off on his feet before sitting down? I'd have thought so.

Also, you'd imagine they'll start with something instantly recognisable, which Clocks is.

If Beyoncé is to appear with them, as is rumoured, it'll obv be during Hymn For The Weekend. I'd be surprised if she was straight on stage, so would rule that out.

Either Clocks or Sky Full Of Stars for me. Clocks seems the logical pick, so £20 @ 11-2 please.

[exstream]

what was the bet a long time ago, in one superbowl, was it heads or tails bet or something, cant remember