Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

You might be right but the odds on the top 6 just seem very skinny.  Look at Jason Day - he is apparently a 12.5% chance to be first and about a 33% chance to be top 5.  So he has to average a 5% chance for 2nd to 5th.  I doubt he can drop from being a 12.5% for first to 5% for second - so he has to surely be something like 9% to be second - now following this logic we must be about 6% for third say then 4% for 4th and we're now about 2% for 5th.  

This is all obviously guesstimate stuff, but it comes down to him being 6th-8th maybe 4%*  of the time and we go hurrah when we get paid, but I just think that we have to be careful overvaluing the concession on such a short price.

edited after a bit of thought as maybe the chances of a place level out a bit, but still don't think its the huge bargain it appears.

Betty have a 'big 5 v the field' market and it's 2.1 the big guns, 1.9 the rest. The top five prices with Sky aren't bad in comparison. Around 52%. Obv under 50% at best prices.

Paying eight places, a quarter the odds, Sky are 9-4 about a top eight finish for Jordo. He's odds-on to lay in the top ten market on the machine. Jason Day can be laid at 7-1 for as much as you like outright and is 1.8 in the top ten market, compared to 7-4 top eight with Sky.

Given it's 66-1 bar the top 14 runners in the outrights, I'd say Sky's terms are pretty incred.

7 places 1/4 odds is bonkers.  8 is insane. I said this last week no one would go 7 places which they haven't at 1/4 odds apart from sky sweat who have gone 8.  The trouble is with sky sweat though is that if you open a new account and back ten golfers ew to take out £5k each or whatever the max bet is on a new account you at about a 1/50 shot to get cut to 1% win lose or draw.  So what is the point of the offer? Just to set fire to cash by sky? Open loads of new accounts and then close most of them after giving them a free bet for opening as well?

Well yes, feel free to readily assume they have no idea what they are doing. Or maybe you have been out-levelled, & there happens to be sound long-term logic behind it.  

Probably best to think a little wider, Argue. There IS sound logic behind this offer, & the specific timing behind it.  

And yes, if you back, or try to back, 10 golfers to take out £5k each, you are more than likely to get Restricted/closed, because that is absolutely not the market they are targeting. Bets of that size may be meat & drink to 1% of the market, the Pros mainly, but the target market won't be betting sums anything like that, or adopting the logic of betting all of the top 10 in the market.

It's a major betting event, in both senses of the word. That means they can take a longer view & use it as an exercise in acquisition, exactly as they did at Cheltenham, & will do in Euro16.   

[rinswun]

Paying 7 places on the GN too?!

[horseplayer]

John Rhodes is widely accepted as a very good golf compiler (he is also an excellent judge ) suspect sky know what they are doing here

[baldock92]

Charley Hoffman at 150/1 each way can't be bad for an outside bet.

Rose 25/1, matsuyama 33/1 and Oosthuizen 35/1 seem decent aswell.

Bubba to get his 3rd green jacket though imo

[horseplayer]

All I will add to the debate is something I said last year...

I don't think the terms suddenly means Fred should be betting any golfer who looks a good price.

[tikay]

John Rhodes is widely accepted as a very good golf compiler (he is also an excellent judge ) suspect sky know what they are doing here

Well maybe, maybe not, I've no idea how good John is, though I fancy they do know what they are doing as I've seen the results, but here's the thing. Right now, several major Sports Betting sites have dropped the ball - we all know who they are - & so there is a land-grab in progress, & the landscape is changing. There will never be a better time to mop up disaffected punters.

[tikay]

All I will add to the debate is something I said last year...

I don't think the terms suddenly means Fred should be betting any golfer who looks a good price.

Most years, we tend to have a good share of our Masters book on the Sub-Markets, which are less volatile & lower variance. I daresay we'll do some of each this year, including outrights, though maybe less of the latter if - IF - it is deemed that Sky's EW terms mean punters should go that route.   

[tikay]

Whilst we are discussing Masters Golf, here's the details of BBC's coverage.

I know they are not everyone's cup of tea, but I'm really looking forward to Sir Peter Alliss & Ken Brown doing their thing, they beat Sky Sports all ends up imo.


 http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/golf/26768244

[DungBeetle]

Bahrain grand prix   vettel   5/1   15   0   N   -15
Bahrain Grand Prix Top 6 Finish   perez   9/4   25   0   N   -25
Bahrain Grand Prix Not To Finish The Race   gutierrez   11/10   20   42   Y   22
Bahrain Grand Prix Not To Finish The Race   grosjean   6/5   20   0   N   -20
double team points finish   renault   20/1   5   0   N   -5
formula e long beach   bird   10/1   10   0   N   -10
Bahrain gp points finish   Palmer   6/1   10   0   N   -10
Formula e long beach   buemi   11/2   25   0   N   -25

-£98 Total

hopefully better luck in China in a fortnight

Rubbish weekend for these bets, although the spreads worked well for those who got on there.

The Vettel, Palmer and Renault bets may well (and should) be voided because Vettel and Palmer had a DNS.

Cant win em all Peter

You are still a massive winner for fred so chin up

I cleaned up on those spreads you put up Peter.  Cheers!  How do you see the season long spreads going?  Williams take a hit presumably?  Force India looked lacking pace as well.

Awesome!

You know what, lap one was so chaotic that pretty much every car in the field was carrying some degree of damage. That, coupled with the volume of strategies is making data analysis an absolute nightmare. I've been looking through timing data for around four hours and am not even close to deducing what exactly happened during that race. If this is how the rest of the season will be, we're in for an incredible, albeit complicated, season.

Both Williams and both Force India's lacked pace due to damage. I'm still working through the data, and should hopefully be able to draw conclusions over the coming days. It looks like buying Haas on the spreads wouldn't be a bad move right now, although I still need to be more certain before making that move.

.

I bought Grosjean pre season and am up about 50 points and just topped up on Haas a few hours ago as I think they are still too low.  Would welcome your thoughts when you've taken a look though as might adjust further.

That bet looks pretty good as things currently stand. It's a bit hard to tell with any team at the moment given that Australia was massively disrupted by the red flag, and Bahrain was skewed by multiple collisions on the opening lap causing serious damage to most cars. I suspect when we have a clean race, we'll see the Haas drivers at the tail end of the points. I wouldn't personally be buying Haas on the spreads just yet, but maybe in one or two races.

I saw in "Ted's notebook" that Eric Bouillier said he thought Jenson would have come 7th if he hadn't had a failure.   Did you reach a similar conclusion to that?  Seemed a bit optimistic to me.

[BigAdz]

Whilst we are discussing Masters Golf, here's the details of BBC's coverage.

I know they are not everyone's cup of tea, but I'm really looking forward to Sir Peter Alliss & Ken Brown doing their thing, they beat Sky Sports all ends up imo.


 http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/golf/26768244

We were discussing this at the weekend and thought Brown would be the perfect replacement host for the much missed Around With Aliss type show.

Anyone else have a thought on this?

[BigAdz]

To be honest all this talk about not betting in the Masters because we aren't getting the best of it is all very well, but you don't have to go back far to find plenty of examples of 'lets have a bet it's the @£(=' .

Or the 'its quiet, so to liven things up' bet.

So I think that ship has long since sailed.

I would say in general, every reg here has learnt what they ever will from the great punters of our time, and so much of it has been adopted, but in the end, I bet even 90% of the top 1% of great punters still have the odd punt.

[TightEnd]

Hector, did you see John Murray's excellent summation of the Paul Ryan opportunity on the "next president" thread?

i posed your question....

late last night....

2016 US Presidential Election
Paul Ryan - Next President
Betfair Bet ID 1:66198848817 | Matched: 04-Apr-16 23:28:01    Back   50.00    10.00

was matched. happy enough for it to go on the thread i assume?

look to trade it out if it goes as expected

[tikay]

Whilst we are discussing Masters Golf, here's the details of BBC's coverage.

I know they are not everyone's cup of tea, but I'm really looking forward to Sir Peter Alliss & Ken Brown doing their thing, they beat Sky Sports all ends up imo.


 http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/golf/26768244

We were discussing this at the weekend and thought Brown would be the perfect replacement host for the much missed Around With Aliss type show.

Anyone else have a thought on this?

He would be perfect imo, he has that whimsical way, & relates so well with the viewers. Good golfing pedigree, fine sense of humour, comfy front of camera.

Do you remember, a few years back, Mr Lineker's attempts at fronting BBC Golf? Hard to dislike Gary, or fail to respect his record as a footballer, but for me, that was a bit of a fail, he just seemed so uncomfortable.

The mightily impressive Claire Balding seems to excel at almost everything she turns her hand to but I doubt that would work with golf somehow.

Were they not so busy elsewhere with other projects, Jeremy Clarkson or Chris Evans might be interesting contenders, & Chris is a decent golfer. Jeremy might ruffle establishment feathers interestingly.   

[tikay]

To be honest all this talk about not betting in the Masters because we aren't getting the best of it is all very well, but you don't have to go back far to find plenty of examples of 'lets have a bet it's the @£(=' .

Or the 'its quiet, so to liven things up' bet.

So I think that ship has long since sailed.

I would say in general, every reg here has learnt what they ever will from the great punters of our time, and so much of it has been adopted, but in the end, I bet even 90% of the top 1% of great punters still have the odd punt.

I think that whilst, logically, that makes no sense to do, the fact is, Fred does occasionally need a little seeding to keep interest levels up.

[hector62]

Hector, did you see John Murray's excellent summation of the Paul Ryan opportunity on the "next president" thread?

i posed your question....

late last night....

2016 US Presidential Election
Paul Ryan - Next President
Betfair Bet ID 1:66198848817 | Matched: 04-Apr-16 23:28:01    Back   50.00    10.00

was matched. happy enough for it to go on the thread i assume?



look to trade it out if it goes as expected

Yes I read it, as I do all the politics threads here. Very happy to put it on thread as I just can't see America going for Trump. I saw that Hills, who had Ryan at the 50's are now down to 25's. I will now follow " Real time with Bill Maher " with added interest and let you know any tid bits.