Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Post #2:

Group B/Group 2 (PER/HUL/BOT/MAS) - Valtteri Bottas @ 6/1 with Skai, or 5/1 with 366. While I don't think this will happen, because Force India have the race pace advantage, 5/1 is too high. £10.

https://www.skybet.com/formula-1/belgian-gp/betType/group-betting
http://www.bet365.com/home/FlashGen4/WebConsoleApp.asp?&cb=10325413028

Group C (BUT/GRO/GUT/SAI/KVY) - Carlos Sainz @ 15/2. A very high price for a drive that is a "safe pair of hands" in a group that will be extremely close. £10.

https://www.skybet.com/formula-1/belgian-gp/betType/group-betting

Group 3 (BUT/GRO/MAG/SAI) - Carlos Sainz @ 5/1. Similar reasoning to above, but with different drivers in the group. £10.

http://www.bet365.com/home/FlashGen4/WebConsoleApp.asp?&cb=10325413028

Also, due to a combination of engine mileage and general driving inconsistency, taking the max price you get get on Palmer, Kvyat and Nasr to not finish the race makes sense to me:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/not-to-finish-the-race

As for spreads, I've sold on:

- K.Raikkonen/S.Vettel (@ 0, £5)
- N.Hulkenberg/S.Perez (@ -1.5, £5)
- L.Hamilton/N.Hulkenberg (@ 4, £2.50)

Right, I'm done, promise. Probably the most amount of bets I've ever done on one race .. fingers crossed!

of these the DNFs are the only ones we can get on

Jolyon Palmer Belgian Grand Prix Not To Finish The Race
2/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £30.00

Daniil Kvyat Belgian Grand Prix Not To Finish The Race
9/4
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £32.50

Felipe Nasr Belgian Grand Prix Not To Finish The Race
10/3
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £43.30

[TightEnd]

Crowley had a treble at Windsor last night and now leads by one. He has a better book than SDS today and again at Epsom tomorrow. Barring injury or a big ban I don't see what stops him from here tbh.

I've had £240 @ 5-6 on behalf of thread.

right ok. i'd rather people didn't independently place stuff (know why you did, but it becomes tough to control especially when time is limited, thanks)

[TightEnd]

Congrats all who got on, lovely stuff.

And Cheers to Peter for Nico pole.

Great start to the punting day.

Cheers, good start to the motorsport weekend

Tomorrow is going to be absolutely fascinating - many strategy options out there, and you know what that means boys & girls .. VALUE!

Bets coming tonight around 7/8PM ish.

So much for that .. I really need to stop giving myself deadlines that I break 

Anyhow, bet suggestions:

Race Winner - Lewis Hamilton @ 14/1+. Given that Lewis has the momentum in races, and the array of strategy options available today, as well as the propensity of this track to produce bonkers races, I can't help but feel Lewis could do this. Some firms are offering 17/1 which is FAR too high. I'm doing £20 on this one. Did consider the EW, but not happy at top two.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/winner

Podium Finish - Sebastian Vettel @ 6/4+. Always happy to take over EVS on Sebastian to "podiumvate" when he starts 4th, ALWAYS. £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/podium-finish

Points Finish - Pascal Wehrlein @ 11/1. The Manor has been quick in bursts all weekend, given how close the grid is this weekend, if they could find the sweet spot with their tyre temps, points are on the cards. 11/1 is a good price, I would have put it at more like 8/1. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/points-finish

Leader After 5 Laps - Kimi Raikkonen @ 8/1. Kimi is a Spa specialist and often starts well at this track, 8/1 is silly. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/leader-after-5-laps

Winning Margin - Between 5 And 10 Seconds @ 9/4. This is the most common margin of victory around this circuit, just don't understand the price above 2/1. Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/winning-margin

Highest Scoring Team - Force India @ 33/1. Thought about this one a lot. 33/1 is the price you would usually get on Force India. However, this is Belgium, and Force India have a car that can compete with Red Bull/Ferrari on race pace. With an array of strategy options available too, the bookies not lowering the 33/1 price is something I don't agree with. Suggest £5.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/highest-scoring-team

Double Points Finish - Sauber/Yes @ 80/1. I don't think any team should be priced this high at Spa, especially when the field is so close pace wise (1.3 seconds covering the field in Q1, excluding Hamilton and Alonso who both had reasons for being adrift of the pack). £5.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/double-points-finish-yes-no

I'm wary about the length of this post, I'll do a second one for other markets, including spreads. I did say there would be value .. 

bloody hell

:-)

[TightEnd]

If Hamilton is 16/1 to win, 16/3 to place feels fine.  Him finishing 2nd to Nico seems a likely place his run to the front stops.  Also betfair agrees with me albeit on a quiet top 2 market

so what's the suggested bet?

he's only 2/1 to podium

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/podium-finish

where and what is 16/3?

[TightEnd]

Sebastian Vettel Belgian Grand Prix Podium Finish
6/4
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £50.00

Pascal Wehrlein Belgian Grand Prix Points Finish
10/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £110.00

this is bet365 only, unstated above. waste of time me checking

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/leader-after-5-laps

Between 5 And 10 Seconds Belgian Grand Prix Winning Margin
9/4
Total Stake: £20.00
Total Returns: £65.00

Ladbrokes only, unstated above. no point checking

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/highest-scoring-team

betfairsportsbook only, you know the drill

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/double-points-finish-yes-no

[Doobs]

If Hamilton is 16/1 to win, 16/3 to place feels fine.  Him finishing 2nd to Nico seems a likely place his run to the front stops.  Also betfair agrees with me albeit on a quiet top 2 market

so what's the suggested bet?

he's only 2/1 to podium

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/podium-finish

where and what is 16/3?

Third first 2.  Available hills, coral etc.  Will happily take the £20 place that comes with peter's bet.

[TightEnd]

Lewis Hamilton Belgian Grand Prix Winner
16/1 Each Way (2 Places at 1/3 Odds)
Total Stake: £40.00
Potential Returns: £465.60

[Peter-27]

If Hamilton is 16/1 to win, 16/3 to place feels fine.  Him finishing 2nd to Nico seems a likely place his run to the front stops.  Also betfair agrees with me albeit on a quiet top 2 market

so what's the suggested bet?

he's only 2/1 to podium

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/podium-finish

where and what is 16/3?

Third first 2.  Available hills, coral etc.  Will happily take the £20 place that comes with peter's bet.

I can't argue with Doobs on this one. My only reservation is that I wanted £20 on the win, which means the EW would be a total of £40 and that's a big amount for something that is relatively unlikely ..

[Peter-27]

Lewis Hamilton Belgian Grand Prix Winner
16/1 Each Way (2 Places at 1/3 Odds)
Total Stake: £40.00
Potential Returns: £465.60

Okay, let's see what happens

[cish n fhips]

Not sure if thread can get on at Billy Hills

But first Mbro goal 0-15 mins @ 6's seems a bet.

Fast starting this season which has seen this bet
bring home the bacon in all three games so far.

Id expect Mbro to dominate first 15 with West Brom
making changes at back .

Rec £20 @

Gl Guys

[DropTheHammer]

Cheers for the F1 stuff guys-lots to cheer on now.

Peter you mentioned an 80-1 price for Sauber getting double points finish but this was 500-1 at Bwin and 200-1 at Hills, when I checked  ;-)

[Peter-27]

Cheers for the F1 stuff guys-lots to cheer on now.

Peter you mentioned an 80-1 price for Sauber getting double points finish but this was 500-1 at Bwin and 200-1 at Hills, when I checked  ;-)

Seriously?! When was this? Currently only on betfayre?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/double-points-finish-yes-no

[bergeroo]

Wow are bwin and party even bookmakers. They limit my winnings to 110 but will only let me bet a minimum of 50p, so I can't actually bet!

Cheers for the F1 stuff guys-lots to cheer on now.

Peter you mentioned an 80-1 price for Sauber getting double points finish but this was 500-1 at Bwin and 200-1 at Hills, when I checked  ;-)

Seriously?! When was this? Currently only on betfayre?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/double-points-finish-yes-no

[DropTheHammer]

Cheers for the F1 stuff guys-lots to cheer on now.

Peter you mentioned an 80-1 price for Sauber getting double points finish but this was 500-1 at Bwin and 200-1 at Hills, when I checked  ;-)

Seriously?! When was this? Currently only on betfayre?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/double-points-finish-yes-no

Unless I am mistaken the below is the same market, it's just titled slightly differently resulting in a different oddschecker market:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/double-points-finish

[Peter-27]

Cheers for the F1 stuff guys-lots to cheer on now.

Peter you mentioned an 80-1 price for Sauber getting double points finish but this was 500-1 at Bwin and 200-1 at Hills, when I checked  ;-)

Seriously?! When was this? Currently only on betfayre?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/double-points-finish-yes-no

Unless I am mistaken the below is the same market, it's just titled slightly differently resulting in a different oddschecker market:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/double-points-finish

Wow .. well that's pretty annoying. Good spot though.

I've topped up £5 at 200/1 with WH. Bwin wouldn't let me bet on it