Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Advance warning

Neither tikay or I are on the thread much this weekend, tikay not at all and me dipping in and out while working at DTD

Bear with us if you want stuff placed or discussed, will get to it when i can (depending on what depths of IT dramas i am in with new blog software)

[AndrewT]

SSN reporting that Hamilton may use this weekend to break in 3 new engines meaning he will incur just the 75 place penalty.

[tikay]

^^^^

Ha, very good.

As it happens, at 8/1, I'm not sure Lewis is not a smidge of value to win on Sunday.

It may sound ridic, but it's a circuit where overtaking is (relatively) easy, & where the fast straights will benefit the Mercedes.

Throw in the chance of a Safety Car or two, & Rosberg might have a whoopsy, & stranger things have happened.

 

[exstream]

Djokovic 11/10 with coral offer of money bAck is up to £25
2.22 on exchange

[T_Mar]

Djokovic 11/10 with coral offer of money bAck is up to £25
2.22 on exchange

6/4 Djokovic

Edit -  Ignore being a muppet

[Chompy]

Djokovic 11/10 with coral offer of money bAck is up to £25
2.22 on exchange

No good for TfT then.

Can't emphasise how good this 11-2 Murray to beat Djok with Scuy is.

[horseplayer]

Pundits on ruk still telling all sundry a high draw is a must at Thirsk in sprint's

First two home drawn 1 and 2

[bergeroo]

I am looking for a live outsider in the bottom half of the ladies US Open Draw for an ew bet. Any opinions?

[Weetabix]

Kerber looks the best e/w pick in the bottom half by a long way. The top half of quarter 4 is really bad and I would be shocked if it wasn't kerber or kvitova from this quarter, the main reason I would go for one of the above is down to how tough quarter 3 is, by far the toughest quarter.

Someone mentioned Djokovic wrist injury earlier, perhaps he has or he could have used this as an excuse to skip Cincinnati after the shocking loss at the Olympics.  Probably a smart move resting up for the US open.

[Peter-27]

3/5 Nico probably does represent value, but I'm always reluctant to suggest bets below EVS, so I'm not going to formally suggest that.

However, 11/10 for a Nico pole position makes complete sense for us. Lewis, with his engine penalties, will need to set up his car with the intention of overtaking people during the race, rather than outright speed. This will compromise his chances of finishing at the top in qualifying. Perhaps Lewis' outright speed on this track will make that deficit redundant - but 11/10 on Nico is a good price. Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/pole-position

Not To Finish The Race - Jolyon Palmer @ 5/2 with SkaiBet. I know the thread can't do this one, but it's a good position. Jolyon is still learning at this level and does make mistakes every weekend. On a track with high attrition, I feel that 5/2 is too generous of a price. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/not-to-finish-the-race

Podium Finish - Sergio Perez @ best price. 20/1 with BoilSports, but is that palp? I'd suggest £10 on the highest possible price. The Force India's should be in outside contention, and I would be surprised to see these prices still be up come Saturday morning.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/podium-finish

Note: Post coming so late as I was up conducting Formula E analysis. For those who don't know, the first three day test has been completed. There is one more three day test in a few weeks. I've already got a very good idea of how this season will play out, so I'm looking forward to some odds coming online

Is there anyway Lewis doesn't bother going for top 10 because he knows he will be at the back regardless? Save that bit of performance from the engine?

And so looking for value on that other car getting top 10, reaching q2 etc

Interesting thought. I suppose it's possible Lewis will not bother taking part in qualifying, but I doubt it. He's too much of a competitor to sit back and not take part without any real benefit. Engine performance isn't an issue now that he has new components.

Peter i took the best price after FP1

Sergio Perez Belgian Grand Prix Podium Finish
10/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £110.00

If you don't want it, we will leave it off the thread...

That was a good call

SSN reporting that Hamilton may use this weekend to break in 3 new engines meaning he will incur just the 75 place penalty.

SSN jumped the gun a bit on that as it's not possible. When you take new components, you have to use them, it's a rule that stops teams essentially taking one penalty but stockpiling engines.

^^^^

Ha, very good.

As it happens, at 8/1, I'm not sure Lewis is not a smidge of value to win on Sunday.

It may sound ridic, but it's a circuit where overtaking is (relatively) easy, & where the fast straights will benefit the Mercedes.

Throw in the chance of a Safety Car or two, & Rosberg might have a whoopsy, & stranger things have happened.

  

I'm glad you said this, because I was thinking the same ..

Lewis is 11/1 in some places which is tremendously tempting. I'd suggest waiting until after qualifying though, as that price should get bigger when the grid is confirmed.

I do have a couple of bets to suggest however:

Points Finish - Romain Grosjean (7/4) & Esteban Gutierrez (13/5). Haas looked strong out there today, both on race pace and over one lap. The issue they have is that their cars have terrible drivability, still think it's worth £10 on each at these prices though.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/points-finish

Safety Car - No (7/4). This is a race of attrition, but unless there's a pile-up, I see no reason why the virtual safety car wouldn't be used instead. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/safety-car

[Killerkilsby]

3/5 Nico probably does represent value, but I'm always reluctant to suggest bets below EVS, so I'm not going to formally suggest that.

However, 11/10 for a Nico pole position makes complete sense for us. Lewis, with his engine penalties, will need to set up his car with the intention of overtaking people during the race, rather than outright speed. This will compromise his chances of finishing at the top in qualifying. Perhaps Lewis' outright speed on this track will make that deficit redundant - but 11/10 on Nico is a good price. Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/pole-position

Not To Finish The Race - Jolyon Palmer @ 5/2 with SkaiBet. I know the thread can't do this one, but it's a good position. Jolyon is still learning at this level and does make mistakes every weekend. On a track with high attrition, I feel that 5/2 is too generous of a price. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/not-to-finish-the-race

Podium Finish - Sergio Perez @ best price. 20/1 with BoilSports, but is that palp? I'd suggest £10 on the highest possible price. The Force India's should be in outside contention, and I would be surprised to see these prices still be up come Saturday morning.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/podium-finish

Note: Post coming so late as I was up conducting Formula E analysis. For those who don't know, the first three day test has been completed. There is one more three day test in a few weeks. I've already got a very good idea of how this season will play out, so I'm looking forward to some odds coming online

Is there anyway Lewis doesn't bother going for top 10 because he knows he will be at the back regardless? Save that bit of performance from the engine?

And so looking for value on that other car getting top 10, reaching q2 etc

Interesting thought. I suppose it's possible Lewis will not bother taking part in qualifying, but I doubt it. He's too much of a competitor to sit back and not take part without any real benefit. Engine performance isn't an issue now that he has new components.

Peter i took the best price after FP1

Sergio Perez Belgian Grand Prix Podium Finish
10/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £110.00

If you don't want it, we will leave it off the thread...

That was a good call

SSN reporting that Hamilton may use this weekend to break in 3 new engines meaning he will incur just the 75 place penalty.

SSN jumped the gun a bit on that as it's not possible. When you take new components, you have to use them, it's a rule that stops teams essentially taking one penalty but stockpiling engines.

^^^^

Ha, very good.

As it happens, at 8/1, I'm not sure Lewis is not a smidge of value to win on Sunday.

It may sound ridic, but it's a circuit where overtaking is (relatively) easy, & where the fast straights will benefit the Mercedes.

Throw in the chance of a Safety Car or two, & Rosberg might have a whoopsy, & stranger things have happened.

  

I'm glad you said this, because I was thinking the same ..

Lewis is 11/1 in some places which is tremendously tempting. I'd suggest waiting until after qualifying though, as that price should get bigger when the grid is confirmed.

I do have a couple of bets to suggest however:

Points Finish - Romain Grosjean (7/4) & Esteban Gutierrez (13/5). Haas looked strong out there today, both on race pace and over one lap. The issue they have is that their cars have terrible drivability, still think it's worth £10 on each at these prices though.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/points-finish

Safety Car - No (7/4). This is a race of attrition, but unless there's a pile-up, I see no reason why the virtual safety car wouldn't be used instead. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/safety-car

Ok, so before anyone puts their life savings on (which I am close to doing) just need to mention formula 1 changes alot and this information was as per yesterdays senior strategy meeting (very reliable source)

Lewis Hamilton has been told to put a few gentle miles on the engine (stay out whole of Q1 - circa 10 laps but NOT make it into Q2 to save the engine mileage and wear. If he accidently makes Q2 he will not be setting a lap for Q3.

Furthermore there may well be some kind of 'issue' overnight meaning he will start from the pitlane. This is to avoid any kind of issues or involvement in a first lap carnage at the first corner.

Lewis was fully on board with all of the above, despite his competitive nature.

Not fully sure which bets to suggest off the back of this but theres definitly edges to explore.

[Peter-27]

3/5 Nico probably does represent value, but I'm always reluctant to suggest bets below EVS, so I'm not going to formally suggest that.

However, 11/10 for a Nico pole position makes complete sense for us. Lewis, with his engine penalties, will need to set up his car with the intention of overtaking people during the race, rather than outright speed. This will compromise his chances of finishing at the top in qualifying. Perhaps Lewis' outright speed on this track will make that deficit redundant - but 11/10 on Nico is a good price. Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/pole-position

Not To Finish The Race - Jolyon Palmer @ 5/2 with SkaiBet. I know the thread can't do this one, but it's a good position. Jolyon is still learning at this level and does make mistakes every weekend. On a track with high attrition, I feel that 5/2 is too generous of a price. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/not-to-finish-the-race

Podium Finish - Sergio Perez @ best price. 20/1 with BoilSports, but is that palp? I'd suggest £10 on the highest possible price. The Force India's should be in outside contention, and I would be surprised to see these prices still be up come Saturday morning.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/podium-finish

Note: Post coming so late as I was up conducting Formula E analysis. For those who don't know, the first three day test has been completed. There is one more three day test in a few weeks. I've already got a very good idea of how this season will play out, so I'm looking forward to some odds coming online

Is there anyway Lewis doesn't bother going for top 10 because he knows he will be at the back regardless? Save that bit of performance from the engine?

And so looking for value on that other car getting top 10, reaching q2 etc

Interesting thought. I suppose it's possible Lewis will not bother taking part in qualifying, but I doubt it. He's too much of a competitor to sit back and not take part without any real benefit. Engine performance isn't an issue now that he has new components.

Peter i took the best price after FP1

Sergio Perez Belgian Grand Prix Podium Finish
10/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £110.00

If you don't want it, we will leave it off the thread...

That was a good call

SSN reporting that Hamilton may use this weekend to break in 3 new engines meaning he will incur just the 75 place penalty.

SSN jumped the gun a bit on that as it's not possible. When you take new components, you have to use them, it's a rule that stops teams essentially taking one penalty but stockpiling engines.

^^^^

Ha, very good.

As it happens, at 8/1, I'm not sure Lewis is not a smidge of value to win on Sunday.

It may sound ridic, but it's a circuit where overtaking is (relatively) easy, & where the fast straights will benefit the Mercedes.

Throw in the chance of a Safety Car or two, & Rosberg might have a whoopsy, & stranger things have happened.

  

I'm glad you said this, because I was thinking the same ..

Lewis is 11/1 in some places which is tremendously tempting. I'd suggest waiting until after qualifying though, as that price should get bigger when the grid is confirmed.

I do have a couple of bets to suggest however:

Points Finish - Romain Grosjean (7/4) & Esteban Gutierrez (13/5). Haas looked strong out there today, both on race pace and over one lap. The issue they have is that their cars have terrible drivability, still think it's worth £10 on each at these prices though.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/points-finish

Safety Car - No (7/4). This is a race of attrition, but unless there's a pile-up, I see no reason why the virtual safety car wouldn't be used instead. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/safety-car

Ok, so before anyone puts their life savings on (which I am close to doing) just need to mention formula 1 changes alot and this information was as per yesterdays senior strategy meeting (very reliable source)

Lewis Hamilton has been told to put a few gentle miles on the engine (stay out whole of Q1 - circa 10 laps but NOT make it into Q2 to save the engine mileage and wear. If he accidently makes Q2 he will not be setting a lap for Q3.

Furthermore there may well be some kind of 'issue' overnight meaning he will start from the pitlane. This is to avoid any kind of issues or involvement in a first lap carnage at the first corner.

Lewis was fully on board with all of the above, despite his competitive nature.

Not fully sure which bets to suggest off the back of this but theres definitly edges to explore.

If true, that's good information, although I would never be trusting what Lewis says once he gets out on track if I were his race engineer!

If this happens, it'll be interesting to see how his price to win the race changes.

[Killerkilsby]

Very True, Lewis is abit wild at times!

[BigAdz]

For those that can. Maybe worth literally a couple of quid on Crowley to be Flat Jock Champ next year at 50s.

Maybe about to get a top job.

No idea what this is all about, but found a £5 free bet in my Sky account so seemed like fate

As he was on Morning Line, and now within one of SDS, I was wondering who else had got on?

Well, looks like another snippet I was told was wide of the mark(! !). But at least one other person secured a bit of value.

Go Jim!!

[Tal]

Great spot, Adz.