Tips for Tikay

[Karabiner]

On a roll now..

[Karabiner]

Do we stick with the system and lump all of our working-man's profits on the even-money jolly in the next which happens to be the feature?

 

[arbboy]

Do we stick with the system and lump all of our working-man's profits on the even-money jolly in the next which happens to be the feature?

 

So it was your even £5k Barton laid in the ring!  Makes sense now.

[Karabiner]

Do we stick with the system and lump all of our working-man's profits on the even-money jolly in the next which happens to be the feature?

 

So it was your even £5k Barton laid in the ring!  Makes sense now.

No I the evens had gone by the time tried for my macaroni which was all I was willing to risk.

I did get £2.37 matched @44 on Stunner though for a decent evening's entertainment and probably a profit on the system for 2016

[Tal]

Thursday Night Football

No, not the Europa League. The other one.

The Kansas City Chiefs host divisional rivals the Las Vegas Oakland Raiders tonight. The Raiders have been just about the most fun team to watch this season, with a fast scoring offense, a stupendous offensive line protecting an emerging quarterback and an aggressive defense. Oh and a coach who just loves to gamble when the heat is on.

Divisional games on a Thursday tend to be lower scoring than projected, although part of that is down to the fact the punters love the overs.

However, I am surprised at seeing the passing yards line for Alex Smith of the Chiefs as low as 240.5. The Chiefs have their main wide receiver back from injury tonight, Jeremy Maclin. They also have one of the hottest talents around right now in Tyreek Hill, who is a deep threat, as well as taking some snaps as a running back.

Oakland's offensive line will be a very tough match for the talented Chiefs pass rush and this looks to me like a game where the Chiefs will need to go airborne, because of how quickly the Raiders can score.

The Chiefs called a lot of running plays when ahead on Sunday and got themselves into trouble against Atlanta, somehow holding on to win. Smith isn't a big gunslinger but, against a mediocre pass defense, this does feel like an over to me on 240.5. I would have thought something nearer 260.



Recommend £33 on Alex Smith over 240.5 passing yards with Billy Mountains.

[TightEnd]

Thursday Night Football

No, not the Europa League. The other one.

The Kansas City Chiefs host divisional rivals the Las Vegas Oakland Raiders tonight. The Raiders have been just about the most fun team to watch this season, with a fast scoring offense, a stupendous offensive line protecting an emerging quarterback and an aggressive defense. Oh and a coach who just loves to gamble when the heat is on.

Divisional games on a Thursday tend to be lower scoring than projected, although part of that is down to the fact the punters love the overs.

However, I am surprised at seeing the passing yards line for Alex Smith of the Chiefs as low as 240.5. The Chiefs have their main wide receiver back from injury tonight, Jeremy Maclin. They also have one of the hottest talents around right now in Tyreek Hill, who is a deep threat, as well as taking some snaps as a running back.

Oakland's offensive line will be a very tough match for the talented Chiefs pass rush and this looks to me like a game where the Chiefs will need to go airborne, because of how quickly the Raiders can score.

The Chiefs called a lot of running plays when ahead on Sunday and got themselves into trouble against Atlanta, somehow holding on to win. Smith isn't a big gunslinger but, against a mediocre pass defense, this does feel like an over to me on 240.5. I would have thought something nearer 260.



Recommend £33 on Alex Smith over 240.5 passing yards with Billy Mountains.

before i place this have you considered the weather?

expected to be very cold, and that must be a risk for passing game numbers?

http://oak.247sports.com/Bolt/Its-snowing-in-Kansas-City-the-day-before-Raiders-Chiefs-on-TNF-49630645

should also mention Travis Kelce, on the upside, 6 x 100y receving games in a row and Karl Jspeh is out for the Raiders, their main cover safety.

[TightEnd]

in tomorrow's Autosport magazine

Click to see full-size image.

[Tal]

Thursday Night Football

No, not the Europa League. The other one.

The Kansas City Chiefs host divisional rivals the Las Vegas Oakland Raiders tonight. The Raiders have been just about the most fun team to watch this season, with a fast scoring offense, a stupendous offensive line protecting an emerging quarterback and an aggressive defense. Oh and a coach who just loves to gamble when the heat is on.

Divisional games on a Thursday tend to be lower scoring than projected, although part of that is down to the fact the punters love the overs.

However, I am surprised at seeing the passing yards line for Alex Smith of the Chiefs as low as 240.5. The Chiefs have their main wide receiver back from injury tonight, Jeremy Maclin. They also have one of the hottest talents around right now in Tyreek Hill, who is a deep threat, as well as taking some snaps as a running back.

Oakland's offensive line will be a very tough match for the talented Chiefs pass rush and this looks to me like a game where the Chiefs will need to go airborne, because of how quickly the Raiders can score.

The Chiefs called a lot of running plays when ahead on Sunday and got themselves into trouble against Atlanta, somehow holding on to win. Smith isn't a big gunslinger but, against a mediocre pass defense, this does feel like an over to me on 240.5. I would have thought something nearer 260.



Recommend £33 on Alex Smith over 240.5 passing yards with Billy Mountains.

before i place this have you considered the weather?

expected to be very cold, and that must be a risk for passing game numbers?

http://oak.247sports.com/Bolt/Its-snowing-in-Kansas-City-the-day-before-Raiders-Chiefs-on-TNF-49630645

should also mention Travis Kelce, on the upside, 6 x 100y receving games in a row and Karl Jspeh is out for the Raiders, their main cover safety.

Fair point. 20 degrees (Fahrenheit) tonight and the little wind there is will make it feel about half that.

Some interesting reading on temperature out there.

http://www.hawkblogger.com/2016/01/effect-of-cold-weather-on-nfl-games.html

Total combined yards (pass + run for both teams) will be 10% lower than at 50 degrees plus.

http://www.4for4.com/fantasy-football/how-does-cold-weather-impact-nfl-scoring

The total points likely won't be affected, though.

Click to see full-size image.

This scatter graph adjusts for windy conditions, as it is wind which really affects the totals. That and heavy snow, but I don't believe any is forecast..?

As for the passing game, there is inevitably an effect where players can't change direction as quickly and the ball is harder to grip:

http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/01/weather-effects-on-passing.html?m=1

There are fewer plays called for sure when it is cold but the effect is more prevalent on the away team than the home.

Having good vertical runners helps and the Chiefs have that.

Open to views anyway. If the line is back up over 255, I'd say no bet.

[TightEnd]

This market still appears to be suspended, i don't know why

[TightEnd]

09 Dec 2016 - Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs - Alex Smith Total Passing Yards

Over (240.5) @ 10/11

Stake : £33.00
Estimated Returns : £
63.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001781/F

[Cavey007]

It's up at 258.5 on 365.

In theory should be a high scoring game. And they will have to keep the scoring up. The chiefs are capable of scoring if they need to. Thursday home team is always going to be favourite.

I'm actually tempted to get up and watch this match. A very important game in the division and the afc in general and should be a cracker. With regards to Smith yards. He should beat 240. Think Spencer Ware is going to be my best bet of the night.

[Doobs]

For those that can Bouvreuil is 9/1 with 365/lads/corals for the caspian caviar gold cup (seriously wtf on the sponsor).  Has been well backed on bf and currently 9/9.8.   Won't last long and should be a good e/w bet.

No idea if the caviar is any good.  Tal!

£25 each way booked with me if Fred wants.

confirmed, thanks

Bouvreuil now clear 6/1 favourite and, more or less, that price on betfair.  The race is already down to 16, so the 4 places we have is gold too.  We dodged a bullet here, as I was going to put up Tarquin Du Seuil too, but never got a price I liked.  It was declared a non runner this morning.

For those who are so bad they still have a victor account, Reading are now 2/1 vs Wednesday at home.  No idea why.

And everbody's favourite bet, Saara Aalto is now best 8/13 to win x factor.  Those with doubles including Cruz Beckham at 14/1 will be loving it right now. 

[TightEnd]

A change in the odds as Valtteri Bottas installed as new favourite to land Mercedes seat by bookmakers http://skysports.tv/ZCFUgS


know tft couldn't get on, but some did. good luck getting it home.

[TightEnd]

It's up at 258.5 on 365.

In theory should be a high scoring game. And they will have to keep the scoring up. The chiefs are capable of scoring if they need to. Thursday home team is always going to be favourite.

I'm actually tempted to get up and watch this match. A very important game in the division and the afc in general and should be a cracker. With regards to Smith yards. He should beat 240. Think Spencer Ware is going to be my best bet of the night.

its midday in KC roughly. they are queueing to get in, 8 hours before kick off

Click to see full-size image.

meanwhile a 8am flight from California had an announcement to congratulate the passengers for drinking the plane dry. Raiders fans travelling in numbers

the field is covered with ice

its freezing apparently still

if you are going to watch an NFL game, and want one with the most rabid college atmosphere possible, Arrowhead with the AFC West on the line against the Raiders with a weather angle is the one to get up for 

[TightEnd]

verified account
‏@bbclaurak

'Boris Johnson has used up all of his lives' says one senior MP

--

after he was rebuked for his (true) Saudi comments this morning by the government

the 6/1 first cabinet member to leave (market headed by the brexit trio of Fox, Boris, Davis) looks very meaty indeed

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/first-cabinet-member-to-leave