Tips for Tikay

[Peter-27]

Thanks for the kind words all, it's appreciated. Fortunately I have brilliant friends and they were able to help calm me down

Hello Peter

You don't have to respond to every F1 post.

Actually I do, otherwise my brain gets itchy.  

Andrew Benson's a respected BBC journalist though and knows his stuff.

This almost made me choke on my tongue.

In my eyes, the quality of Andrew's work shows that his knowledge and interest of the sport is extremely limited. It seems to me that all he cares about is making a name for himself, with sensationalist, and often inaccurate headlines. A few well known personalities with in the paddock share this opinion too.

As for the McLaren suggestion, selling them is a fair shout. They're selling price is currently one, so it's effectively EVS that they'll finish outside the top four, right? Seems like an absolute no brainer to me.

I'll be posting all my suggestions in the next few hours, and then going straight to bed ahead of FP1 in the early hours

[DungBeetle]

It's much worse than evens Peter.  You win 1 point if they finish 5th or below and lose 9 in the unlikely scenario they come 4th.  Losses become catastrophic after that (admittedly that would be a far fetched scenario).

[DungBeetle]

One other thing on McLaren if you sell at £1k a point it would be £2k to close out so the slightest hint of Honda sorting themselves out would leave you in a bad spot in terms of close out even if you remained confident that they would never finish 4th.  Selling at 1 isn't generally a fun bet.

[Dekka]

One other thing on McLaren if you sell at £1k a point it would be £2k to close out so the slightest hint of Honda sorting themselves out would leave you in a bad spot in terms of close out even if you remained confident that they would never finish 4th.  Selling at 1 isn't generally a fun bet.

My spread betting days ended a long time ago.  I'm out!

[Peter-27]

It's much worse than evens Peter.  You win 1 point if they finish 5th or below and lose 9 in the unlikely scenario they come 4th.  Losses become catastrophic after that (admittedly that would be a far fetched scenario).

Ahh, yeah I didn't think that through at all 

[Dekka]

One thing I do want to pick up on is your assessment of Jolyon. He's a bizarre driver. As you touched upon, he takes a long time to get used to a car (typically 3-5 seasons), but when he does, he's utterly unbeatable.

Hi Peter

I'm pleased you've calmed down and I'm sorry my comment about Andrew Benson's credentials nearly choked you.  We'll all have journos, newspapers, pundits, TV channels, bloggers and contacts whose opinions we trust and a whole load that we don't.  For me the secret in betting (and in much more important things) is to work out for ourselves which ones to believe and which to ignore.  I'm ok with Andrew but fully respect it if he's on your "best ignored" list.

Anyway, I've a couple of questions for you ...

1)  What's your take on the news/rumours that the Force India car is up to 10kg overweight?  I see that Sergio Perez has gone on a crash diet and we all know every kg counts massively in F1.  You're up to speed on Force India ... is there any truth in this?  Have they shaved a few kg off the car since Barcelona?  Is this weight issue reflected in the markets?

2)  Your views on my Jolyon Palmer bet confused me a little. Apart from his four year GP2 career which I detailed in my post, he's only ever spent 2 full seasons in every other category he's raced in and he's entering his 2nd full season in F1 now.  What makes you say he typically takes 3 - 5 seasons to get used to a car when the evidence seems to suggest otherwise?

He spent one full year in T Cars (a series for drivers under 17) in 2006 where he came 5th in the championship although he did take part in 2 races in 2007 and won them both!

He then spent two full seasons in Formula Palmer Audi - 10th in 2007 then improved to 3rd in the 2008 championship.  He raced part-time in FPA in 2009 (he lined up in just 8 races winning one and making the podium twice more) but his main focus in 2009 was getting established in the higher profile Formula 2 series.  

As I mentioned before he came 21st in that 2009 Formula 2 season then 2nd in 2010.

I'm not even sure I agree that it took him 3 years to get going in GP2.  In his debut GP2 season in 2011 he finished 28th but in 2012 he came 11th in the championship which was a big step up and actually won the Monaco race that year!

As the Palmer to beat Hulkenberg bet was my first F1 recommendation for the thread I did my research properly and tried to make sure I'd got my facts right before I posted it up. I've no problem at all if you don't agree it was a value spot but I can't quite fathom your reasoning for doing so.  

Incidentally Palmer's now shortened with PP from 7/2 to 11/4 but you can still back Hulkenberg at 4/9 so there's still some thin value there somewhere!

[Peter-27]

NOTE FOR TIGHTY: Only the bottom three suggestions are not Sky only.

Right, bet suggestions -

First of all, Sky Bet pre-season stuff as I had requested odds on a lot of scenarios. Note, I'm not suggesting everything I requested odds on - depends on the price they're offering of course.

- Haas to finish 7th in the constructors championship @ 3/1. I'm predicting them to finish 7th, and I'd say their realistic range is 6th-8th, 3/1 seems like a good spot to me given the confidence I have. I'll be doing £25.

- Valtteri Bottas to win more races than Lewis Hamilton in 2017 @ 4/1. While I do think Valtteri will take the title, I am expecting Lewis to have more wins. That being said, 4/1 seems far too high in equal machinery. £25 for me (was limited).

- McLaren to score no points in 2017 @ 8/1. Given how fundamental their engine problems are (both power & reliability) .. this is a real possibility and 8/1 is too high, I would take 6/1+. £12.50 (was limited).

- McLaren to finish last in the constructors championship @ 9/1. If the previous bet comes off, this one almost certainly will too. Max bet (£11.11 for me).

Other bets I've done, but not formal suggestions due to the "multiple scenario" nature that you all hate (understandably!):

- McLaren to have at least 1 car not be classified in the 1st 5 races & no points in the first five races @ 4/1. This one baffles me a little bit .. at least one car to not be classified is almost certain. So this is basically 4/1 on no points in the first five races. Max bet, no question - especially bearing in mind that no engine developments will be seen in the first four races (flyaway races, engines already on route). I'm limited to £25.

- Valtteri Bottas to win the drivers, Mercedes to win the constructors @ 7/1. I don't see a scenario where Bottas wins the title and Mercedes don't. 7/1 is massive. Max Bet. I'm limited to £14.29.

- Mercedes to finish 1-2 in the drivers championship, McLaren last in the constructors @ 11/1. Feels reasonable at this price. Limited to £9.09, wanted £10.

- Valtteri Bottas to win the Australian GP and the drivers championship @ 28/1. That price, really? Someone could work out the Maths for me on that, but I would suggest 3/1 for the Australian GP and 2/1 for the title were generous prices. Aware that the book on Bottas is already quite large though. Max bet. Limited to £3.57.

- Mercedes 16+ wins, Force India to beat Renault & Sauber top eight in the constructors @ 40/1. Even I can tell this one isn't value, but I do expect it to be a good sweat. Max bet £2.50, wanted £5.

- Both McLaren drivers to not be classified in the first five races of the season @ 40/1. Given that they haven't actually done a race distance yet .. and they're not going to have any upgrades until race five, I feel this is more possible than 40/1!

https://www.skybet.com/formula-1/specials/requestabet

Now, Australian GP specific bets:

Let's stick with Sky first.

Both McLaren drivers to not be classified @ 5/4. Over EVS on this seems bonkers to me. They'll be lucky to get through the three practice sessions without a reliability failure, let alone the race. Going to exercise caution with the stake here though because safety cars and red flags could help them drop the power rating down and save the engine somewhat. £30.

Now, the more traditional bets:

Race Winner - Unsure. Now, there's value here for sure, but I'm struggling with a suggestion. I would say Lewis is overpriced at 11/8 and Valtteri is overpriced at 6/1. Valtteri is "more overpriced", so I guess we do him? Maybe we do both? Open to suggestion on this one actually. If I were pricing the market up, Lewis would be 10/11, Valtteri would be 13/10.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/winner

Top Three Finish - Daniel Ricciardo at 21/10 with the exchange. Red Bull are the tricky team to place pace wise, we know they'll be 2nd or 3rd, but we really have no idea about the gap to/from Ferrari as they were the team that ran the least optimised package in testing (they ran very few aerodynamic parts, meaning they have a lot to debut this weekend). I would have said Daniel should be 19/10. Suggest £10.

Points Finish - Kevin Magnussen @ 5/2 with Bet Stars and Hills. The midfield looks to be quite close, if there's an opportunity to score points, Kevin will be in the mix on talent alone. 5/2 seems a little too high. £10.

Not To Finish The Race - Lance Stroll @ 13/8 with 365 and Sky Bet. Lance really struggled to keep the car on the track during testing. It's unfair that he got so much negative press for this; he's a rookie trying to control the fastest F1 cars ever with huge amounts of wheel torque - it's perfectly understandable. Anyhow, Lance's offs appeared to be caused by getting on the power too early/hard while the car is still unbalanced from the prior corner. I don't know what it is about the Melbourne track, but it makes you feel like you can get on the power early, but that's often a mistake (particularly in the final sector). I remember Raikkonen having an off here around five years ago for this very reason. Suggest £10 on this.

[DungBeetle]

Isn't the "not classified" not to finish as opposed to no points?

[FUN4FRASER]

NOTE FOR TIGHTY: Only the bottom three suggestions are not Sky only.

Right, bet suggestions -

First of all, Sky Bet pre-season stuff as I had requested odds on a lot of scenarios. Note, I'm not suggesting everything I requested odds on - depends on the price they're offering of course.

- Haas to finish 7th in the constructors championship @ 3/1. I'm predicting them to finish 7th, and I'd say their realistic range is 6th-8th, 3/1 seems like a good spot to me given the confidence I have. I'll be doing £25.

- Valtteri Bottas to win more races than Lewis Hamilton in 2017 @ 4/1. While I do think Valtteri will take the title, I am expecting Lewis to have more wins. That being said, 4/1 seems far too high in equal machinery. £25 for me (was limited).

- McLaren to score no points in 2017 @ 8/1. Given how fundamental their engine problems are (both power & reliability) .. this is a real possibility and 8/1 is too high, I would take 6/1+. £12.50 (was limited).

- McLaren to finish last in the constructors championship @ 9/1. If the previous bet comes off, this one almost certainly will too. Max bet (£11.11 for me).

Other bets I've done, but not formal suggestions due to the "multiple scenario" nature that you all hate (understandably!):

- McLaren to have at least 1 car not be classified in the 1st 5 races & no points in the first five races @ 4/1. This one baffles me a little bit .. at least one car to not be classified is almost certain. So this is basically 4/1 on no points in the first five races. Max bet, no question - especially bearing in mind that no engine developments will be seen in the first four races (flyaway races, engines already on route). I'm limited to £25.

- Valtteri Bottas to win the drivers, Mercedes to win the constructors @ 7/1. I don't see a scenario where Bottas wins the title and Mercedes don't. 7/1 is massive. Max Bet. I'm limited to £14.29.

- Mercedes to finish 1-2 in the drivers championship, McLaren last in the constructors @ 11/1. Feels reasonable at this price. Limited to £9.09, wanted £10.

- Valtteri Bottas to win the Australian GP and the drivers championship @ 28/1. That price, really? Someone could work out the Maths for me on that, but I would suggest 3/1 for the Australian GP and 2/1 for the title were generous prices. Aware that the book on Bottas is already quite large though. Max bet. Limited to £3.57.

- Mercedes 16+ wins, Force India to beat Renault & Sauber top eight in the constructors @ 40/1. Even I can tell this one isn't value, but I do expect it to be a good sweat. Max bet £2.50, wanted £5.

- Both McLaren drivers to not be classified in the first five races of the season @ 40/1. Given that they haven't actually done a race distance yet .. and they're not going to have any upgrades until race five, I feel this is more possible than 40/1!

https://www.skybet.com/formula-1/specials/requestabet

Now, Australian GP specific bets:

Let's stick with Sky first.

Both McLaren drivers to not be classified @ 5/4. Over EVS on this seems bonkers to me. They'll be lucky to get through the three practice sessions without a reliability failure, let alone the race. Going to exercise caution with the stake here though because safety cars and red flags could help them drop the power rating down and save the engine somewhat. £30.

Now, the more traditional bets:

Race Winner - Unsure. Now, there's value here for sure, but I'm struggling with a suggestion. I would say Lewis is overpriced at 11/8 and Valtteri is overpriced at 6/1. Valtteri is "more overpriced", so I guess we do him? Maybe we do both? Open to suggestion on this one actually. If I were pricing the market up, Lewis would be 10/11, Valtteri would be 13/10.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/winner

Top Three Finish - Daniel Ricciardo at 21/10 with the exchange. Red Bull are the tricky team to place pace wise, we know they'll be 2nd or 3rd, but we really have no idea about the gap to/from Ferrari as they were the team that ran the least optimised package in testing (they ran very few aerodynamic parts, meaning they have a lot to debut this weekend). I would have said Daniel should be 19/10. Suggest £10.

Points Finish - Kevin Magnussen @ 5/2 with Bet Stars and Hills. The midfield looks to be quite close, if there's an opportunity to score points, Kevin will be in the mix on talent alone. 5/2 seems a little too high. £10.

Not To Finish The Race - Lance Stroll @ 13/8 with 365 and Sky Bet. Lance really struggled to keep the car on the track during testing. It's unfair that he got so much negative press for this; he's a rookie trying to control the fastest F1 cars ever with huge amounts of wheel torque - it's perfectly understandable. Anyhow, Lance's offs appeared to be caused by getting on the power too early/hard while the car is still unbalanced from the prior corner. I don't know what it is about the Melbourne track, but it makes you feel like you can get on the power early, but that's often a mistake (particularly in the final sector). I remember Raikkonen having an off here around five years ago for this very reason. Suggest £10 on this.

thanks for the time spent putting up your selections Peter

Im sure the guys will confirm either way the value bets

this one for example   - Valtteri Bottas to win the drivers, Mercedes to win the constructors @ 7/1. I don't see a scenario where Bottas wins the title and Mercedes don't. 7/1 is massive. Max Bet. I'm limited to £14.29.

With the Ferrari and Red bull teams being live theres no point doing a double with Bottas at 7-1 when he is 13-2/6-1 outright


I do like this one though      Valtteri Bottas to win more races than Lewis Hamilton in 2017 @ 4/1. While I do think Valtteri will take the title, I am expecting Lewis to have more wins. That being said, 4/1 seems far too high in equal machinery. £25 for me (was limited). 4-1 Bottas  looks decent value if the cars are similar


Good Luck with your bets

[Peter-27]

One thing I do want to pick up on is your assessment of Jolyon. He's a bizarre driver. As you touched upon, he takes a long time to get used to a car (typically 3-5 seasons), but when he does, he's utterly unbeatable.

Hi Peter

I'm pleased you've calmed down and I'm sorry my comment about Andrew Benson's credentials nearly choked you.  We'll all have journos, newspapers, pundits, TV channels, bloggers and contacts whose opinions we trust and a whole load that we don't.  For me the secret in betting (and in much more important things) is to work out for ourselves which ones to believe and which to ignore.  I'm ok with Andrew but fully respect it if he's on your "best ignored" list.

Anyway, I've a couple of questions for you ...

1)  What's your take on the news/rumours that the Force India car is up to 10kg overweight?  I see that Sergio Perez has gone on a crash diet and we all know every kg counts massively in F1.  You're up to speed on Force India ... is there any truth in this?  Have they shaved a few kg off the car since Barcelona?  Is this weight issue reflected in the markets?

2)  Your views on my Jolyon Palmer bet confused me a little. Apart from his four year GP2 career which I detailed in my post, he's only ever spent 2 full seasons in every other category he's raced in and he's entering his 2nd full season in F1 now.  What makes you say he typically takes 3 - 5 seasons to get used to a car when the evidence seems to suggest otherwise?

He spent one full year in T Cars (a series for drivers under 17) in 2006 where he came 5th in the championship although he did take part in 2 races in 2007 and won them both!

He then spent two full seasons in Formula Palmer Audi - 10th in 2007 then improved to 3rd in the 2008 championship.  He raced part-time in FPA in 2009 (he lined up in just 8 races winning one and making the podium twice more) but his main focus in 2009 was getting established in the higher profile Formula 2 series.  

As I mentioned before he came 21st in that 2009 Formula 2 season then 2nd in 2010.

I'm not even sure I agree that it took him 3 years to get going in GP2.  In his debut GP2 season in 2011 he finished 28th but in 2012 he came 11th in the championship which was a big step up and actually won the Monaco race that year!

As the Palmer to beat Hulkenberg bet was my first F1 recommendation for the thread I did my research properly and tried to make sure I'd got my facts right before I posted it up. I've no problem at all if you don't agree it was a value spot but I can't quite fathom your reasoning for doing so.  

Incidentally Palmer's now shortened with PP from 7/2 to 11/4 but you can still back Hulkenberg at 4/9 so there's still some thin value there somewhere!

No need to apologise about Andrew, we all have our own opinions - and there's no guarantee I'm right. Except, I'm stubborn, so yes, I'm right  

1) This is a bizarre story. Sergio has said himself that he has had to go on a diet, so that's certainly true. However, he also said the car hasn't been weighed yet which is a bit of a curious one because I know for a fact they have the facility to do that at their base in Silverstone. My assessments of pace don't take into account weights, because I'm assuming all teams are able to be at the minimum weight (which is usually the case, but apparently not here). This means I would still keep my prediction of 5th for Force India. If the car is over weight, and they've got 10 kg to gain over the season .. that's a pretty mega potential gain for them. Something just doesn't feel right about this story, weight shouldn't be a differentiator between teams using the same engines at this level as they all near enough use the same materials, at least not to the tune of 10 kg's. If the 10 kg figure is true, then all Mercedes runners are around that much over-weight too. It'll be the engine where the weight fluctuates. In summary, I'm stumped on this one for now.

2) I can't argue with your facts, they're absolutely spot on. However, what you're not looking at is the timeline of his progression.

In T Cars he was pretty much a front runner immediately, then came Formula Palmer Audi - quick in his second season. Next up, Formula Two, again quick in his second season. Then came GP2, I would say four seasons to become a consistent front runner, although you could argue three. If we lay that out:

T cars: 0 seasons
Formula Palmer Audi: 2 seasons
F2: 2 seasons
GP2: 3/4 seasons

It seems to me that there's a trend forming there; the more powerful the car, the longer it takes him to learn the dynamics of the vehicle. Granted, it's not a huge sample size, but his retirement percentage stats (in GP2 and Formula Palmer Audi) also shows his progression of learning to control the car, take GP2 for instance:

2011: 4 retirements, 22% (5 with GP2 Asia, 23%)
2012: 5 retirements, 21%
2013: 4 retirements, 18%
2014: 1 retirement, 5%

This is potentially skewed by mechanical failures rather than driver mistakes, but it does feel like his time in GP2 showed many mistakes early on, and very few mistakes in 2014. That's a normal development trajectory for any driver, but not usually spanning 3/4 seasons.

Don't get me wrong, I think your point is extremely valid, but I just feel it's one season too early for him yet at this level. It's also worth noting that in some ways this is everyone's first year in F1 with the cars having completely different dynamics - something which will hurt Jolyon more than anyone.

[Peter-27]

Isn't the "not classified" not to finish as opposed to no points?

Cars are classified if they achieve 90% race distance, doesn't matter what position they finish in.

NOTE FOR TIGHTY: Only the bottom three suggestions are not Sky only.

Right, bet suggestions -

First of all, Sky Bet pre-season stuff as I had requested odds on a lot of scenarios. Note, I'm not suggesting everything I requested odds on - depends on the price they're offering of course.

- Haas to finish 7th in the constructors championship @ 3/1. I'm predicting them to finish 7th, and I'd say their realistic range is 6th-8th, 3/1 seems like a good spot to me given the confidence I have. I'll be doing £25.

- Valtteri Bottas to win more races than Lewis Hamilton in 2017 @ 4/1. While I do think Valtteri will take the title, I am expecting Lewis to have more wins. That being said, 4/1 seems far too high in equal machinery. £25 for me (was limited).

- McLaren to score no points in 2017 @ 8/1. Given how fundamental their engine problems are (both power & reliability) .. this is a real possibility and 8/1 is too high, I would take 6/1+. £12.50 (was limited).

- McLaren to finish last in the constructors championship @ 9/1. If the previous bet comes off, this one almost certainly will too. Max bet (£11.11 for me).

Other bets I've done, but not formal suggestions due to the "multiple scenario" nature that you all hate (understandably!):

- McLaren to have at least 1 car not be classified in the 1st 5 races & no points in the first five races @ 4/1. This one baffles me a little bit .. at least one car to not be classified is almost certain. So this is basically 4/1 on no points in the first five races. Max bet, no question - especially bearing in mind that no engine developments will be seen in the first four races (flyaway races, engines already on route). I'm limited to £25.

- Valtteri Bottas to win the drivers, Mercedes to win the constructors @ 7/1. I don't see a scenario where Bottas wins the title and Mercedes don't. 7/1 is massive. Max Bet. I'm limited to £14.29.

- Mercedes to finish 1-2 in the drivers championship, McLaren last in the constructors @ 11/1. Feels reasonable at this price. Limited to £9.09, wanted £10.

- Valtteri Bottas to win the Australian GP and the drivers championship @ 28/1. That price, really? Someone could work out the Maths for me on that, but I would suggest 3/1 for the Australian GP and 2/1 for the title were generous prices. Aware that the book on Bottas is already quite large though. Max bet. Limited to £3.57.

- Mercedes 16+ wins, Force India to beat Renault & Sauber top eight in the constructors @ 40/1. Even I can tell this one isn't value, but I do expect it to be a good sweat. Max bet £2.50, wanted £5.

- Both McLaren drivers to not be classified in the first five races of the season @ 40/1. Given that they haven't actually done a race distance yet .. and they're not going to have any upgrades until race five, I feel this is more possible than 40/1!

https://www.skybet.com/formula-1/specials/requestabet

Now, Australian GP specific bets:

Let's stick with Sky first.

Both McLaren drivers to not be classified @ 5/4. Over EVS on this seems bonkers to me. They'll be lucky to get through the three practice sessions without a reliability failure, let alone the race. Going to exercise caution with the stake here though because safety cars and red flags could help them drop the power rating down and save the engine somewhat. £30.

Now, the more traditional bets:

Race Winner - Unsure. Now, there's value here for sure, but I'm struggling with a suggestion. I would say Lewis is overpriced at 11/8 and Valtteri is overpriced at 6/1. Valtteri is "more overpriced", so I guess we do him? Maybe we do both? Open to suggestion on this one actually. If I were pricing the market up, Lewis would be 10/11, Valtteri would be 13/10.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/winner

Top Three Finish - Daniel Ricciardo at 21/10 with the exchange. Red Bull are the tricky team to place pace wise, we know they'll be 2nd or 3rd, but we really have no idea about the gap to/from Ferrari as they were the team that ran the least optimised package in testing (they ran very few aerodynamic parts, meaning they have a lot to debut this weekend). I would have said Daniel should be 19/10. Suggest £10.

Points Finish - Kevin Magnussen @ 5/2 with Bet Stars and Hills. The midfield looks to be quite close, if there's an opportunity to score points, Kevin will be in the mix on talent alone. 5/2 seems a little too high. £10.

Not To Finish The Race - Lance Stroll @ 13/8 with 365 and Sky Bet. Lance really struggled to keep the car on the track during testing. It's unfair that he got so much negative press for this; he's a rookie trying to control the fastest F1 cars ever with huge amounts of wheel torque - it's perfectly understandable. Anyhow, Lance's offs appeared to be caused by getting on the power too early/hard while the car is still unbalanced from the prior corner. I don't know what it is about the Melbourne track, but it makes you feel like you can get on the power early, but that's often a mistake (particularly in the final sector). I remember Raikkonen having an off here around five years ago for this very reason. Suggest £10 on this.

thanks for the time spent putting up your selections Peter

Im sure the guys will confirm either way the value bets

this one for example   - Valtteri Bottas to win the drivers, Mercedes to win the constructors @ 7/1. I don't see a scenario where Bottas wins the title and Mercedes don't. 7/1 is massive. Max Bet. I'm limited to £14.29.

With the Ferrari and Red bull teams being live theres no point doing a double with Bottas at 7-1 when he is 13-2/6-1 outright


I do like this one though      Valtteri Bottas to win more races than Lewis Hamilton in 2017 @ 4/1. While I do think Valtteri will take the title, I am expecting Lewis to have more wins. That being said, 4/1 seems far too high in equal machinery. £25 for me (was limited). 4-1 Bottas  looks decent value if the cars are similar


Good Luck with your bets

Based on what you've pointed out, I would probably agree that "Valtteri Bottas to win the drivers, Mercedes to win the constructors" @ 7/1 isn't value. Had forgotten Valtteri was 6/1 for the title, that in itself is madness.

I do think I made a valid point that if Valtteri wins the title, Mercedes automatically win the constructors though. If a driver as talented as Lewis is your "second driver" .. that's quite some points haul 

[Dekka]

To help add to the anticipation of the new F1 season here's an American based podcast preview featuring Will Buxton (another journo whose opinion I listen to with interest) of the season ahead.  Conveniently it's nicely indexed so you can dip in and just hear the bits you're really interested in.

I've just heard the bits on Renault, McLaren and Ferrari but I'll get round to the rest later.   Thought I'd share it for anyone interested.

http://www.racer.com/f1/item/139023-podcast-2017-f1-season-preview-with-will-buxton

[FUN4FRASER]

Based on what you've pointed out, I would probably agree that "Valtteri Bottas to win the drivers, Mercedes to win the constructors" @ 7/1 isn't value. Had forgotten Valtteri was 6/1 for the title, that in itself is madness.

I do think I made a valid point that if Valtteri wins the title, Mercedes automatically win the constructors though. If a driver as talented as Lewis is your "second driver" .. that's quite some points haul  

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Highly likely it could happen I agree but not worth the risk as an unforeseen  Withdrawal ,Injury , Disqualification or Ban could hit Hamilton for example , hence no value in the double

[Doobs]

Isn't the "not classified" not to finish as opposed to no points?

Cars are classified if they achieve 90% race distance, doesn't matter what position they finish in.

NOTE FOR TIGHTY: Only the bottom three suggestions are not Sky only.

Right, bet suggestions -

First of all, Sky Bet pre-season stuff as I had requested odds on a lot of scenarios. Note, I'm not suggesting everything I requested odds on - depends on the price they're offering of course.

- Haas to finish 7th in the constructors championship @ 3/1. I'm predicting them to finish 7th, and I'd say their realistic range is 6th-8th, 3/1 seems like a good spot to me given the confidence I have. I'll be doing £25.

- Valtteri Bottas to win more races than Lewis Hamilton in 2017 @ 4/1. While I do think Valtteri will take the title, I am expecting Lewis to have more wins. That being said, 4/1 seems far too high in equal machinery. £25 for me (was limited).

- McLaren to score no points in 2017 @ 8/1. Given how fundamental their engine problems are (both power & reliability) .. this is a real possibility and 8/1 is too high, I would take 6/1+. £12.50 (was limited).

- McLaren to finish last in the constructors championship @ 9/1. If the previous bet comes off, this one almost certainly will too. Max bet (£11.11 for me).

Other bets I've done, but not formal suggestions due to the "multiple scenario" nature that you all hate (understandably!):

- McLaren to have at least 1 car not be classified in the 1st 5 races & no points in the first five races @ 4/1. This one baffles me a little bit .. at least one car to not be classified is almost certain. So this is basically 4/1 on no points in the first five races. Max bet, no question - especially bearing in mind that no engine developments will be seen in the first four races (flyaway races, engines already on route). I'm limited to £25.

- Valtteri Bottas to win the drivers, Mercedes to win the constructors @ 7/1. I don't see a scenario where Bottas wins the title and Mercedes don't. 7/1 is massive. Max Bet. I'm limited to £14.29.

- Mercedes to finish 1-2 in the drivers championship, McLaren last in the constructors @ 11/1. Feels reasonable at this price. Limited to £9.09, wanted £10.

- Valtteri Bottas to win the Australian GP and the drivers championship @ 28/1. That price, really? Someone could work out the Maths for me on that, but I would suggest 3/1 for the Australian GP and 2/1 for the title were generous prices. Aware that the book on Bottas is already quite large though. Max bet. Limited to £3.57.

- Mercedes 16+ wins, Force India to beat Renault & Sauber top eight in the constructors @ 40/1. Even I can tell this one isn't value, but I do expect it to be a good sweat. Max bet £2.50, wanted £5.

- Both McLaren drivers to not be classified in the first five races of the season @ 40/1. Given that they haven't actually done a race distance yet .. and they're not going to have any upgrades until race five, I feel this is more possible than 40/1!

https://www.skybet.com/formula-1/specials/requestabet

Now, Australian GP specific bets:

Let's stick with Sky first.

Both McLaren drivers to not be classified @ 5/4. Over EVS on this seems bonkers to me. They'll be lucky to get through the three practice sessions without a reliability failure, let alone the race. Going to exercise caution with the stake here though because safety cars and red flags could help them drop the power rating down and save the engine somewhat. £30.

Now, the more traditional bets:

Race Winner - Unsure. Now, there's value here for sure, but I'm struggling with a suggestion. I would say Lewis is overpriced at 11/8 and Valtteri is overpriced at 6/1. Valtteri is "more overpriced", so I guess we do him? Maybe we do both? Open to suggestion on this one actually. If I were pricing the market up, Lewis would be 10/11, Valtteri would be 13/10.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/winner

Top Three Finish - Daniel Ricciardo at 21/10 with the exchange. Red Bull are the tricky team to place pace wise, we know they'll be 2nd or 3rd, but we really have no idea about the gap to/from Ferrari as they were the team that ran the least optimised package in testing (they ran very few aerodynamic parts, meaning they have a lot to debut this weekend). I would have said Daniel should be 19/10. Suggest £10.

Points Finish - Kevin Magnussen @ 5/2 with Bet Stars and Hills. The midfield looks to be quite close, if there's an opportunity to score points, Kevin will be in the mix on talent alone. 5/2 seems a little too high. £10.

Not To Finish The Race - Lance Stroll @ 13/8 with 365 and Sky Bet. Lance really struggled to keep the car on the track during testing. It's unfair that he got so much negative press for this; he's a rookie trying to control the fastest F1 cars ever with huge amounts of wheel torque - it's perfectly understandable. Anyhow, Lance's offs appeared to be caused by getting on the power too early/hard while the car is still unbalanced from the prior corner. I don't know what it is about the Melbourne track, but it makes you feel like you can get on the power early, but that's often a mistake (particularly in the final sector). I remember Raikkonen having an off here around five years ago for this very reason. Suggest £10 on this.

thanks for the time spent putting up your selections Peter

Im sure the guys will confirm either way the value bets

this one for example   - Valtteri Bottas to win the drivers, Mercedes to win the constructors @ 7/1. I don't see a scenario where Bottas wins the title and Mercedes don't. 7/1 is massive. Max Bet. I'm limited to £14.29.

With the Ferrari and Red bull teams being live theres no point doing a double with Bottas at 7-1 when he is 13-2/6-1 outright


I do like this one though      Valtteri Bottas to win more races than Lewis Hamilton in 2017 @ 4/1. While I do think Valtteri will take the title, I am expecting Lewis to have more wins. That being said, 4/1 seems far too high in equal machinery. £25 for me (was limited). 4-1 Bottas  looks decent value if the cars are similar


Good Luck with your bets

Based on what you've pointed out, I would probably agree that "Valtteri Bottas to win the drivers, Mercedes to win the constructors" @ 7/1 isn't value. Had forgotten Valtteri was 6/1 for the title, that in itself is madness.

I do think I made a valid point that if Valtteri wins the title, Mercedes automatically win the constructors though. If a driver as talented as Lewis is your "second driver" .. that's quite some points haul 

Is 7.8/9 on betfair, so there is a good chance you get 8.something Bottas if you just put a bet up there.  I wouldn't leave it all night though.  Take it down by 1am. 

These combined bets are all pretty much terrible.  Mclaren was 12/1 bottom the other day and a Mercedes 1-2 is going to be greater than evens given lewis is trading 2.26 to 2.32 on the machine.  So effectively you are now taking McLaren 5/1.  You really need to learn how to break a bet down before getting involved.  Please try and get your head round this.  11/10 doubled with 6 is about 12/1 (2.1 × 6 = 12.6 = roughly 12/1).  Taking McLaren at 12/1 to finish last is going to be a massively better bet than this contrived bet.

Funny that they don't seem to realise how much they are screwing you by then limiting you too.  Fwiw I don't think 12/1 McLaren to finish last that you put up the other day would be awful.  And the Bottas win Australia/win drivers champ is very related so might not be bad.  McLaren to get no points in 5 races isn't really a double at all, so again you are likely getting much better value than the normal request a bet doubles.

[Peter-27]

To help add to the anticipation of the new F1 season here's an American based podcast preview featuring Will Buxton (another journo whose opinion I listen to with interest) of the season ahead.  Conveniently it's nicely indexed so you can dip in and just hear the bits you're really interested in.

I've just heard the bits on Renault, McLaren and Ferrari but I'll get round to the rest later.   Thought I'd share it for anyone interested.

http://www.racer.com/f1/item/139023-podcast-2017-f1-season-preview-with-will-buxton

Ahh, Will Buxton, now there's a journalist who knows his stuff, one of the most knowledgable and insightful people in the paddock. A good egg too

Based on what you've pointed out, I would probably agree that "Valtteri Bottas to win the drivers, Mercedes to win the constructors" @ 7/1 isn't value. Had forgotten Valtteri was 6/1 for the title, that in itself is madness.

I do think I made a valid point that if Valtteri wins the title, Mercedes automatically win the constructors though. If a driver as talented as Lewis is your "second driver" .. that's quite some points haul 

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Highly likely it could happen I agree but not worth the risk as an unforeseen  Withdrawal ,Injury , Disqualification or Ban could hit Hamilton for example , hence no value in the double

If we assume that Bottas is 6/1 for the title (which is way overpriced), what would that make Mercedes to win the constructors if the combined price is 7/1?

Isn't the "not classified" not to finish as opposed to no points?

Cars are classified if they achieve 90% race distance, doesn't matter what position they finish in.

NOTE FOR TIGHTY: Only the bottom three suggestions are not Sky only.

Right, bet suggestions -

First of all, Sky Bet pre-season stuff as I had requested odds on a lot of scenarios. Note, I'm not suggesting everything I requested odds on - depends on the price they're offering of course.

- Haas to finish 7th in the constructors championship @ 3/1. I'm predicting them to finish 7th, and I'd say their realistic range is 6th-8th, 3/1 seems like a good spot to me given the confidence I have. I'll be doing £25.

- Valtteri Bottas to win more races than Lewis Hamilton in 2017 @ 4/1. While I do think Valtteri will take the title, I am expecting Lewis to have more wins. That being said, 4/1 seems far too high in equal machinery. £25 for me (was limited).

- McLaren to score no points in 2017 @ 8/1. Given how fundamental their engine problems are (both power & reliability) .. this is a real possibility and 8/1 is too high, I would take 6/1+. £12.50 (was limited).

- McLaren to finish last in the constructors championship @ 9/1. If the previous bet comes off, this one almost certainly will too. Max bet (£11.11 for me).

Other bets I've done, but not formal suggestions due to the "multiple scenario" nature that you all hate (understandably!):

- McLaren to have at least 1 car not be classified in the 1st 5 races & no points in the first five races @ 4/1. This one baffles me a little bit .. at least one car to not be classified is almost certain. So this is basically 4/1 on no points in the first five races. Max bet, no question - especially bearing in mind that no engine developments will be seen in the first four races (flyaway races, engines already on route). I'm limited to £25.

- Valtteri Bottas to win the drivers, Mercedes to win the constructors @ 7/1. I don't see a scenario where Bottas wins the title and Mercedes don't. 7/1 is massive. Max Bet. I'm limited to £14.29.

- Mercedes to finish 1-2 in the drivers championship, McLaren last in the constructors @ 11/1. Feels reasonable at this price. Limited to £9.09, wanted £10.

- Valtteri Bottas to win the Australian GP and the drivers championship @ 28/1. That price, really? Someone could work out the Maths for me on that, but I would suggest 3/1 for the Australian GP and 2/1 for the title were generous prices. Aware that the book on Bottas is already quite large though. Max bet. Limited to £3.57.

- Mercedes 16+ wins, Force India to beat Renault & Sauber top eight in the constructors @ 40/1. Even I can tell this one isn't value, but I do expect it to be a good sweat. Max bet £2.50, wanted £5.

- Both McLaren drivers to not be classified in the first five races of the season @ 40/1. Given that they haven't actually done a race distance yet .. and they're not going to have any upgrades until race five, I feel this is more possible than 40/1!

https://www.skybet.com/formula-1/specials/requestabet

Now, Australian GP specific bets:

Let's stick with Sky first.

Both McLaren drivers to not be classified @ 5/4. Over EVS on this seems bonkers to me. They'll be lucky to get through the three practice sessions without a reliability failure, let alone the race. Going to exercise caution with the stake here though because safety cars and red flags could help them drop the power rating down and save the engine somewhat. £30.

Now, the more traditional bets:

Race Winner - Unsure. Now, there's value here for sure, but I'm struggling with a suggestion. I would say Lewis is overpriced at 11/8 and Valtteri is overpriced at 6/1. Valtteri is "more overpriced", so I guess we do him? Maybe we do both? Open to suggestion on this one actually. If I were pricing the market up, Lewis would be 10/11, Valtteri would be 13/10.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/winner

Top Three Finish - Daniel Ricciardo at 21/10 with the exchange. Red Bull are the tricky team to place pace wise, we know they'll be 2nd or 3rd, but we really have no idea about the gap to/from Ferrari as they were the team that ran the least optimised package in testing (they ran very few aerodynamic parts, meaning they have a lot to debut this weekend). I would have said Daniel should be 19/10. Suggest £10.

Points Finish - Kevin Magnussen @ 5/2 with Bet Stars and Hills. The midfield looks to be quite close, if there's an opportunity to score points, Kevin will be in the mix on talent alone. 5/2 seems a little too high. £10.

Not To Finish The Race - Lance Stroll @ 13/8 with 365 and Sky Bet. Lance really struggled to keep the car on the track during testing. It's unfair that he got so much negative press for this; he's a rookie trying to control the fastest F1 cars ever with huge amounts of wheel torque - it's perfectly understandable. Anyhow, Lance's offs appeared to be caused by getting on the power too early/hard while the car is still unbalanced from the prior corner. I don't know what it is about the Melbourne track, but it makes you feel like you can get on the power early, but that's often a mistake (particularly in the final sector). I remember Raikkonen having an off here around five years ago for this very reason. Suggest £10 on this.

thanks for the time spent putting up your selections Peter

Im sure the guys will confirm either way the value bets

this one for example   - Valtteri Bottas to win the drivers, Mercedes to win the constructors @ 7/1. I don't see a scenario where Bottas wins the title and Mercedes don't. 7/1 is massive. Max Bet. I'm limited to £14.29.

With the Ferrari and Red bull teams being live theres no point doing a double with Bottas at 7-1 when he is 13-2/6-1 outright


I do like this one though      Valtteri Bottas to win more races than Lewis Hamilton in 2017 @ 4/1. While I do think Valtteri will take the title, I am expecting Lewis to have more wins. That being said, 4/1 seems far too high in equal machinery. £25 for me (was limited). 4-1 Bottas  looks decent value if the cars are similar


Good Luck with your bets

Based on what you've pointed out, I would probably agree that "Valtteri Bottas to win the drivers, Mercedes to win the constructors" @ 7/1 isn't value. Had forgotten Valtteri was 6/1 for the title, that in itself is madness.

I do think I made a valid point that if Valtteri wins the title, Mercedes automatically win the constructors though. If a driver as talented as Lewis is your "second driver" .. that's quite some points haul 

Is 7.8/9 on betfair, so there is a good chance you get 8.something Bottas if you just put a bet up there.  I wouldn't leave it all night though.  Take it down by 1am. 

These combined bets are all pretty much terrible.  Mclaren was 12/1 bottom the other day and a Mercedes 1-2 is going to be greater than evens given lewis is trading 2.26 to 2.32 on the machine.  So effectively you are now taking McLaren 5/1.  You really need to learn how to break a bet down before getting involved.  Please try and get your head round this.  11/10 doubled with 6 is about 12/1 (2.1 × 6 = 12.6 = roughly 12/1).  Taking McLaren at 12/1 to finish last is going to be a massively better bet than this contrived bet.

Funny that they don't seem to realise how much they are screwing you by then limiting you too.  Fwiw I don't think 12/1 McLaren to finish last that you put up the other day would be awful.  And the Bottas win Australia/win drivers champ is very related so might not be bad.  McLaren to get no points in 5 races isn't really a double at all, so again you are likely getting much better value than the normal request a bet doubles.

My Maths is strong so that's not a problem, it's knowing how to apply it to probabilities/odds/betting where the knowledge is lacking. You lost me when you said 11/10 .. where's that from?!

I figured that "McLaren to get no points in 5 races" falls into the multiple scenario bet because it depends on five separate races.

Hmm, isn't there an argument to say that some of the available prices on Mercedes are so far wrong e.g. 6/1 Rosberg title, that some of the combined bets can still offer value, despite not being optimal value (absolute best odds)?