Tips for Tikay

[Woodsey]

My heads exploding with all these F1 bets.

Peter I've already shipped a bit with the Bottas seat, I'm going to lump that back on, if you have 5 mins what are your top 2 or 3 bets for the season? Don't need detail, just tell me what and at what odds! 

Woodsey, yr such a mug puntaaaaaaaaaaaa

It's true, what can I say, its all about the sweat innit  

[tikay]

My heads exploding with all these F1 bets.

Peter I've already shipped a bit with the Bottas seat, I'm going to lump that back on, if you have 5 mins what are your top 2 or 3 bets for the season? Don't need detail, just tell me what and at what odds!  

Woodsey, yr such a mug puntaaaaaaaaaaaa

It's true, what can I say, its all about the sweat innit  

Given everything I know about you Woodsey, if you have a bit of money to invest in a bet, you could do a lot worse than read this week's "Road to Riches" tip on Betting Emporium.

I'm pretty sure you will love this week's Free Bet, which has been put up by Tighty. Trust me, you will.  

I'll even give you a link to it;

http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/44


PS - I'm not suggesting Tighty's bet is better - or worse - than Peter's F1 bets. Think you'd understand it better though. 

[Woodsey]

Cheers, a lot there on that page, are you talking about the Notts cricket bet? If so I'll lob at least a hundred on....

[tikay]

Cheers, a lot there on that page, are you talking about the Notts cricket bet? If so I'll lob at least a hundred on....

Yup.

Looks a very clever bet to me, as Tighty has found an angle.

I'd suggest win only, though the experts might have a view on that.  

[Woodsey]

Cheers, not bothered about the small detail, will have a pop anyway....

[Peter-27]

To help add to the anticipation of the new F1 season here's an American based podcast preview featuring Will Buxton (another journo whose opinion I listen to with interest) of the season ahead.  Conveniently it's nicely indexed so you can dip in and just hear the bits you're really interested in.

I've just heard the bits on Renault, McLaren and Ferrari but I'll get round to the rest later.   Thought I'd share it for anyone interested.

http://www.racer.com/f1/item/139023-podcast-2017-f1-season-preview-with-will-buxton

Ahh, Will Buxton, now there's a journalist who knows his stuff, one of the most knowledgable and insightful people in the paddock. A good egg too

Based on what you've pointed out, I would probably agree that "Valtteri Bottas to win the drivers, Mercedes to win the constructors" @ 7/1 isn't value. Had forgotten Valtteri was 6/1 for the title, that in itself is madness.

I do think I made a valid point that if Valtteri wins the title, Mercedes automatically win the constructors though. If a driver as talented as Lewis is your "second driver" .. that's quite some points haul 

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Highly likely it could happen I agree but not worth the risk as an unforeseen  Withdrawal ,Injury , Disqualification or Ban could hit Hamilton for example , hence no value in the double

If we assume that Bottas is 6/1 for the title (which is way overpriced), what would that make Mercedes to win the constructors if the combined price is 7/1?

Isn't the "not classified" not to finish as opposed to no points?

Cars are classified if they achieve 90% race distance, doesn't matter what position they finish in.

NOTE FOR TIGHTY: Only the bottom three suggestions are not Sky only.

Right, bet suggestions -

First of all, Sky Bet pre-season stuff as I had requested odds on a lot of scenarios. Note, I'm not suggesting everything I requested odds on - depends on the price they're offering of course.

- Haas to finish 7th in the constructors championship @ 3/1. I'm predicting them to finish 7th, and I'd say their realistic range is 6th-8th, 3/1 seems like a good spot to me given the confidence I have. I'll be doing £25.

- Valtteri Bottas to win more races than Lewis Hamilton in 2017 @ 4/1. While I do think Valtteri will take the title, I am expecting Lewis to have more wins. That being said, 4/1 seems far too high in equal machinery. £25 for me (was limited).

- McLaren to score no points in 2017 @ 8/1. Given how fundamental their engine problems are (both power & reliability) .. this is a real possibility and 8/1 is too high, I would take 6/1+. £12.50 (was limited).

- McLaren to finish last in the constructors championship @ 9/1. If the previous bet comes off, this one almost certainly will too. Max bet (£11.11 for me).

Other bets I've done, but not formal suggestions due to the "multiple scenario" nature that you all hate (understandably!):

- McLaren to have at least 1 car not be classified in the 1st 5 races & no points in the first five races @ 4/1. This one baffles me a little bit .. at least one car to not be classified is almost certain. So this is basically 4/1 on no points in the first five races. Max bet, no question - especially bearing in mind that no engine developments will be seen in the first four races (flyaway races, engines already on route). I'm limited to £25.

- Valtteri Bottas to win the drivers, Mercedes to win the constructors @ 7/1. I don't see a scenario where Bottas wins the title and Mercedes don't. 7/1 is massive. Max Bet. I'm limited to £14.29.

- Mercedes to finish 1-2 in the drivers championship, McLaren last in the constructors @ 11/1. Feels reasonable at this price. Limited to £9.09, wanted £10.

- Valtteri Bottas to win the Australian GP and the drivers championship @ 28/1. That price, really? Someone could work out the Maths for me on that, but I would suggest 3/1 for the Australian GP and 2/1 for the title were generous prices. Aware that the book on Bottas is already quite large though. Max bet. Limited to £3.57.

- Mercedes 16+ wins, Force India to beat Renault & Sauber top eight in the constructors @ 40/1. Even I can tell this one isn't value, but I do expect it to be a good sweat. Max bet £2.50, wanted £5.

- Both McLaren drivers to not be classified in the first five races of the season @ 40/1. Given that they haven't actually done a race distance yet .. and they're not going to have any upgrades until race five, I feel this is more possible than 40/1!

https://www.skybet.com/formula-1/specials/requestabet

Now, Australian GP specific bets:

Let's stick with Sky first.

Both McLaren drivers to not be classified @ 5/4. Over EVS on this seems bonkers to me. They'll be lucky to get through the three practice sessions without a reliability failure, let alone the race. Going to exercise caution with the stake here though because safety cars and red flags could help them drop the power rating down and save the engine somewhat. £30.

Now, the more traditional bets:

Race Winner - Unsure. Now, there's value here for sure, but I'm struggling with a suggestion. I would say Lewis is overpriced at 11/8 and Valtteri is overpriced at 6/1. Valtteri is "more overpriced", so I guess we do him? Maybe we do both? Open to suggestion on this one actually. If I were pricing the market up, Lewis would be 10/11, Valtteri would be 13/10.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/winner

Top Three Finish - Daniel Ricciardo at 21/10 with the exchange. Red Bull are the tricky team to place pace wise, we know they'll be 2nd or 3rd, but we really have no idea about the gap to/from Ferrari as they were the team that ran the least optimised package in testing (they ran very few aerodynamic parts, meaning they have a lot to debut this weekend). I would have said Daniel should be 19/10. Suggest £10.

Points Finish - Kevin Magnussen @ 5/2 with Bet Stars and Hills. The midfield looks to be quite close, if there's an opportunity to score points, Kevin will be in the mix on talent alone. 5/2 seems a little too high. £10.

Not To Finish The Race - Lance Stroll @ 13/8 with 365 and Sky Bet. Lance really struggled to keep the car on the track during testing. It's unfair that he got so much negative press for this; he's a rookie trying to control the fastest F1 cars ever with huge amounts of wheel torque - it's perfectly understandable. Anyhow, Lance's offs appeared to be caused by getting on the power too early/hard while the car is still unbalanced from the prior corner. I don't know what it is about the Melbourne track, but it makes you feel like you can get on the power early, but that's often a mistake (particularly in the final sector). I remember Raikkonen having an off here around five years ago for this very reason. Suggest £10 on this.

thanks for the time spent putting up your selections Peter

Im sure the guys will confirm either way the value bets

this one for example   - Valtteri Bottas to win the drivers, Mercedes to win the constructors @ 7/1. I don't see a scenario where Bottas wins the title and Mercedes don't. 7/1 is massive. Max Bet. I'm limited to £14.29.

With the Ferrari and Red bull teams being live theres no point doing a double with Bottas at 7-1 when he is 13-2/6-1 outright


I do like this one though      Valtteri Bottas to win more races than Lewis Hamilton in 2017 @ 4/1. While I do think Valtteri will take the title, I am expecting Lewis to have more wins. That being said, 4/1 seems far too high in equal machinery. £25 for me (was limited). 4-1 Bottas  looks decent value if the cars are similar


Good Luck with your bets

Based on what you've pointed out, I would probably agree that "Valtteri Bottas to win the drivers, Mercedes to win the constructors" @ 7/1 isn't value. Had forgotten Valtteri was 6/1 for the title, that in itself is madness.

I do think I made a valid point that if Valtteri wins the title, Mercedes automatically win the constructors though. If a driver as talented as Lewis is your "second driver" .. that's quite some points haul 

Is 7.8/9 on betfair, so there is a good chance you get 8.something Bottas if you just put a bet up there.  I wouldn't leave it all night though.  Take it down by 1am. 

These combined bets are all pretty much terrible.  Mclaren was 12/1 bottom the other day and a Mercedes 1-2 is going to be greater than evens given lewis is trading 2.26 to 2.32 on the machine.  So effectively you are now taking McLaren 5/1.  You really need to learn how to break a bet down before getting involved.  Please try and get your head round this.  11/10 doubled with 6 is about 12/1 (2.1 × 6 = 12.6 = roughly 12/1).  Taking McLaren at 12/1 to finish last is going to be a massively better bet than this contrived bet.

Funny that they don't seem to realise how much they are screwing you by then limiting you too.  Fwiw I don't think 12/1 McLaren to finish last that you put up the other day would be awful.  And the Bottas win Australia/win drivers champ is very related so might not be bad.  McLaren to get no points in 5 races isn't really a double at all, so again you are likely getting much better value than the normal request a bet doubles.

My Maths is strong so that's not a problem, it's knowing how to apply it to probabilities/odds/betting where the knowledge is lacking. You lost me when you said 11/10 .. where's that from?!

I figured that "McLaren to get no points in 5 races" falls into the multiple scenario bet because it depends on five separate races.

Hmm, isn't there an argument to say that some of the available prices on Mercedes are so far wrong e.g. 6/1 Rosberg title, that some of the combined bets can still offer value, despite not being optimal value (absolute best odds)?

These are all based on last nights prices bar McLaren (as only one bookie offering).

Price on Hamilton win last night was 5/4.  Price on a bottas win was 7/1.   All betfair.  That works out at about 4/5 a Mercedes win (or 55%).  The price of a mercedes to finish 2nd to another is going to be related, but never better than 80%.  55 x .8 =44%.  So the price on a Merc 1-2 should be about 5/4 (this is equivalent to 44% winning).    The real price on McLaren finishing bottom may well be 12/1, it may not, but very much doubt it is less.  Given Sky offered 12/1 originally, I'd be suprised if that is going to be massive value. 

So the combined price should be 13 (from 12/1) x 9/4 ( from 5/4) = 29.25 or 28/1.

You took 12/1.

This isn't value or optimum value, it is bad value.

Expected value = 1/29 x 13 or 45p in the pound.  So you lose 55p for every pound you put on.

If Hamilton should be 2/5 rather than 5/4 you still have a bet where you expect to lose.

Rather than getting complicated, if you just back Hamilton you are bound to get way better value.  If you take 5/4 on a 2/5 chance you do way better.  You will get 9/4 x 5/7 or 60p profit for each pound.

Keep it simple.

Interesting.

I would suggest prices should be:

Hamilton title 10/11
Bottas title 13/10
McLaren last 12/1

Wanted to follow your process, but got stuck as I'm not sure where "That works out at about 4/5 a Mercedes win (or 55%)." came from?

My heads exploding with all these F1 bets.

Peter I've already shipped a bit with the Bottas seat, I'm going to lump that back on, if you have 5 mins what are your top 2 or 3 bets for the season? Don't need detail, just tell me what and at what odds! 

1) Valtteri Bottas to win the Australian GP and the drivers championship @ 28/1
2) Both McLaren drivers to not be classified in the first five races @ 40/1
3) McLaren at least 1 car not classified & no points in the first 5 races @ 4/1

All on Sky Bet.

[Woodsey]

Cheers mate 

[superwomble]

I can't see any of those 3 bets on Shy?

[Doobs]

I can't see any of those 3 bets on Shy?

They were in request a bet.  I guess they have been taken down as the circumstances have changed since they were "priced up"

[Mark_Porter]

Fleetwood look a big price at 8/5 away to Bury tomo with BFSB.

Unbeaten away since November. Fleetwood in 3rd, Bury in 17th.

[tikay]

FP3 sees Ferrari and Seb Vettel head the times, but now it gets real and qualifying starts.

Renault did well in FP3, too.

Off we go.

[tikay]

Game on;




1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes

2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari

3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes

4. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari

5. Max Verstappen, Red Bull

6. Romain Grosjean, Haas

7. Felipe Massa, Williams

8. Carlos Sainz, Toro Rosso

9. Daniil Kvyat, Toro Rosso

10. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull

[Peter-27]

Game on;




1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes

2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari

3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes

4. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari

5. Max Verstappen, Red Bull

6. Romain Grosjean, Haas

7. Felipe Massa, Williams

8. Carlos Sainz, Toro Rosso

9. Daniil Kvyat, Toro Rosso

10. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull

Don't get too excited if you're looking to see the Mercedes dominance toppled. The media will try create a buzz about this but the gap between Lewis and Sebastian was 0.268 seconds .. and that's on a track where top speed and engine power isn't important. Pretty big really.

The big surprise for me is Grosjean in the Haas. I said they'd be quick out of the box, but Romain was nearly four tenths ahead of Felipe in 7th! That's more impressive than I had anticipated. Then again, they do have perennial brake problems and could struggle over a race distance.

Will look at the markets this afternoon.

[superwomble]

I can't see any of those 3 bets on Shy?

They were in request a bet.  I guess they have been taken down as the circumstances have changed since they were "priced up"

Ah right thanks.

[tikay]

Game on;




1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes

2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari

3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes

4. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari

5. Max Verstappen, Red Bull

6. Romain Grosjean, Haas

7. Felipe Massa, Williams

8. Carlos Sainz, Toro Rosso

9. Daniil Kvyat, Toro Rosso

10. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull

Don't get too excited if you're looking to see the Mercedes dominance toppled. The media will try create a buzz about this but the gap between Lewis and Sebastian was 0.268 seconds .. and that's on a track where top speed and engine power isn't important. Pretty big really.

The big surprise for me is Grosjean in the Haas. I said they'd be quick out of the box, but Romain was nearly four tenths ahead of Felipe in 7th! That's more impressive than I had anticipated. Then again, they do have perennial brake problems and could struggle over a race distance.

Will look at the markets this afternoon.

I'm not "getting excited" Peter, just reporting the facts.

It's been a long time since we've seen a Ferrari on the front row, so I don't think we should begrudge them their, perhaps fleeting, moment in the sun.