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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13333838 times)
Peter-27
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« Reply #126705 on: March 25, 2017, 09:01:48 AM »


Game on;




1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes

2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari

3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes

4. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari

5. Max Verstappen, Red Bull

6. Romain Grosjean, Haas

7. Felipe Massa, Williams

8. Carlos Sainz, Toro Rosso

9. Daniil Kvyat, Toro Rosso

10. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull






Don't get too excited if you're looking to see the Mercedes dominance toppled. The media will try create a buzz about this but the gap between Lewis and Sebastian was 0.268 seconds .. and that's on a track where top speed and engine power isn't important. Pretty big really.

The big surprise for me is Grosjean in the Haas. I said they'd be quick out of the box, but Romain was nearly four tenths ahead of Felipe in 7th! That's more impressive than I had anticipated. Then again, they do have perennial brake problems and could struggle over a race distance.

Will look at the markets this afternoon.

I'm not "getting excited" Peter, just reporting the facts.

It's been a long time since we've seen a Ferrari on the front row, so I don't think we should begrudge them their, perhaps fleeting, moment in the sun.



That wasn't aimed at you specifically, just trying to provide a little insight that you don't get from most media outlets Smiley

Don't get me wrong, I would love to see Sebastian take the win tomorrow, then it really would be game on and we could be in for a cracking season. Just, unlikely. However, behind the top three teams, it looks like it could be an incredible scrap all season long - very encouraging!
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tikay
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« Reply #126706 on: March 25, 2017, 09:05:07 AM »


Game on;




1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes

2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari

3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes

4. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari

5. Max Verstappen, Red Bull

6. Romain Grosjean, Haas

7. Felipe Massa, Williams

8. Carlos Sainz, Toro Rosso

9. Daniil Kvyat, Toro Rosso

10. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull






Don't get too excited if you're looking to see the Mercedes dominance toppled. The media will try create a buzz about this but the gap between Lewis and Sebastian was 0.268 seconds .. and that's on a track where top speed and engine power isn't important. Pretty big really.

The big surprise for me is Grosjean in the Haas. I said they'd be quick out of the box, but Romain was nearly four tenths ahead of Felipe in 7th! That's more impressive than I had anticipated. Then again, they do have perennial brake problems and could struggle over a race distance.

Will look at the markets this afternoon.

I'm not "getting excited" Peter, just reporting the facts.

It's been a long time since we've seen a Ferrari on the front row, so I don't think we should begrudge them their, perhaps fleeting, moment in the sun.



That wasn't aimed at you specifically, just trying to provide a little insight that you don't get from most media outlets Smiley

Don't get me wrong, I would love to see Sebastian take the win tomorrow, then it really would be game on and we could be in for a cracking season. Just, unlikely. However, behind the top three teams, it looks like it could be an incredible scrap all season long - very encouraging!

Feet firmly on the ground here, Peter.

I'm certainly encouraged by this, though;

Mercedes

Ferrari

Mercedes

Ferrari

Red Bull

Haas

Williams

Toro Rosso

Toro Rosso

Red Bull
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« Reply #126707 on: March 25, 2017, 09:54:21 AM »


Game on;




1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes

2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari

3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes

4. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari

5. Max Verstappen, Red Bull

6. Romain Grosjean, Haas

7. Felipe Massa, Williams

8. Carlos Sainz, Toro Rosso

9. Daniil Kvyat, Toro Rosso

10. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull






Don't get too excited if you're looking to see the Mercedes dominance toppled. The media will try create a buzz about this but the gap between Lewis and Sebastian was 0.268 seconds .. and that's on a track where top speed and engine power isn't important. Pretty big really.

The big surprise for me is Grosjean in the Haas. I said they'd be quick out of the box, but Romain was nearly four tenths ahead of Felipe in 7th! That's more impressive than I had anticipated. Then again, they do have perennial brake problems and could struggle over a race distance.

Will look at the markets this afternoon.

I'm not "getting excited" Peter, just reporting the facts.

It's been a long time since we've seen a Ferrari on the front row, so I don't think we should begrudge them their, perhaps fleeting, moment in the sun.



That wasn't aimed at you specifically, just trying to provide a little insight that you don't get from most media outlets Smiley

Don't get me wrong, I would love to see Sebastian take the win tomorrow, then it really would be game on and we could be in for a cracking season. Just, unlikely. However, behind the top three teams, it looks like it could be an incredible scrap all season long - very encouraging!

Last season, the Ferrari was a second off the pace here, and couldn't get close to the 2nd Mercedes, now it is quarter of a second.  It isn't as near as I hoped, but it is closer than before.  Maybe the Ferrari will be better on some tracks, or in race trim, or maybe they can develop quicker this season (ok maybe getting far fetched now).  I know it was mentioned a few times at Barcelona that the Ferrari appeared better through the corners than the Mercedes.  No need to get massively excited, but a bit early for writing off the season. 

What spread would you put on Ferrari wins? 
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« Reply #126708 on: March 25, 2017, 09:59:51 AM »

good start for the Vettel bet all in all i felt. Encouraging, especially as there are points to get while Bottas is a bit behind the curve

only needs to finish 3rd in the WDC for it to turn a profit.

i am not around today.if tikay is he can place bets
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« Reply #126709 on: March 25, 2017, 10:24:13 AM »

good start for the Vettel bet all in all i felt. Encouraging, especially as there are points to get while Bottas is a bit behind the curve

only needs to finish 3rd in the WDC for it to turn a profit.

i am not around today.if tikay is he can place bets

By better through the corners, I meant smoother, and not faster.  But guess the tires aren't going to fall apart this year.

A bit of 13/2 fifth first 3 Bottas available this morning for the championship.  Obv giving up a fair bit up on win price, but surely 13/10 first 3 is a good bet.

Edit suggest 25 e/w if we can get on with tote/fred. 

« Last Edit: March 25, 2017, 10:30:02 AM by Doobs » Logged

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« Reply #126710 on: March 25, 2017, 10:47:34 AM »

Women's Golf bets aren't dead and buried but aren't in fantastic shape either after two rounds.

After telling the World that Sung Hyun Park hadn't shot an LPGA round in the 70's this year she opened with, you've guessed it, a 70. She's -5, four shots off the pace.

After telling the World that Lizette Salas didn't have a bogey last week she's managed to have six so far. Currently T40 at -1 so needs a couple of good rounds.

After telling the World that Ariya Jutanugarn could be the next Female Tiger Woods she goes out and shoots a two over 74. Came back with a 67 yesterday but has to go some over the next couple of days.

Of the other notable mentions Lexi is -5 and the others missed the cut including World number one Lydia Ko?

In other news Moriya Jutanugarn and Azahara Munoz both had holes in one on the first day. Yet again there's zero tv coverage of either shot which now makes four aces, one caught on film in two weeks. How hard can it be to set a camera up on a par three? Laughably, on the LPGA website they have an highlights reel where there is no mention of any holes in one. You would think an ace might make it onto an highlights package?

I did have a few photos to post but really struggling with photobucket. Is there a different site I can use?

Later
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« Reply #126711 on: March 25, 2017, 12:41:18 PM »

good start for the Vettel bet all in all i felt. Encouraging, especially as there are points to get while Bottas is a bit behind the curve

only needs to finish 3rd in the WDC for it to turn a profit.

i am not around today.if tikay is he can place bets

By better through the corners, I meant smoother, and not faster.  But guess the tires aren't going to fall apart this year.

A bit of 13/2 fifth first 3 Bottas available this morning for the championship.  Obv giving up a fair bit up on win price, but surely 13/10 first 3 is a good bet.

Edit suggest 25 e/w if we can get on with tote/fred. 



Thanks David, have taken that with BetFred, £25 EW @ 13/2.

BET PLACED
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« Reply #126712 on: March 25, 2017, 12:41:50 PM »

Women's Golf bets aren't dead and buried but aren't in fantastic shape either after two rounds.

After telling the World that Sung Hyun Park hadn't shot an LPGA round in the 70's this year she opened with, you've guessed it, a 70. She's -5, four shots off the pace.

After telling the World that Lizette Salas didn't have a bogey last week she's managed to have six so far. Currently T40 at -1 so needs a couple of good rounds.

After telling the World that Ariya Jutanugarn could be the next Female Tiger Woods she goes out and shoots a two over 74. Came back with a 67 yesterday but has to go some over the next couple of days.

Of the other notable mentions Lexi is -5 and the others missed the cut including World number one Lydia Ko?

In other news Moriya Jutanugarn and Azahara Munoz both had holes in one on the first day. Yet again there's zero tv coverage of either shot which now makes four aces, one caught on film in two weeks. How hard can it be to set a camera up on a par three? Laughably, on the LPGA website they have an highlights reel where there is no mention of any holes in one. You would think an ace might make it onto an highlights package?

I did have a few photos to post but really struggling with photobucket. Is there a different site I can use?

Later

Good stuff, thanks Rubbish.
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Peter-27
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« Reply #126713 on: March 25, 2017, 04:27:18 PM »


Game on;




1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes

2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari

3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes

4. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari

5. Max Verstappen, Red Bull

6. Romain Grosjean, Haas

7. Felipe Massa, Williams

8. Carlos Sainz, Toro Rosso

9. Daniil Kvyat, Toro Rosso

10. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull






Don't get too excited if you're looking to see the Mercedes dominance toppled. The media will try create a buzz about this but the gap between Lewis and Sebastian was 0.268 seconds .. and that's on a track where top speed and engine power isn't important. Pretty big really.

The big surprise for me is Grosjean in the Haas. I said they'd be quick out of the box, but Romain was nearly four tenths ahead of Felipe in 7th! That's more impressive than I had anticipated. Then again, they do have perennial brake problems and could struggle over a race distance.

Will look at the markets this afternoon.

I'm not "getting excited" Peter, just reporting the facts.

It's been a long time since we've seen a Ferrari on the front row, so I don't think we should begrudge them their, perhaps fleeting, moment in the sun.



That wasn't aimed at you specifically, just trying to provide a little insight that you don't get from most media outlets Smiley

Don't get me wrong, I would love to see Sebastian take the win tomorrow, then it really would be game on and we could be in for a cracking season. Just, unlikely. However, behind the top three teams, it looks like it could be an incredible scrap all season long - very encouraging!

Last season, the Ferrari was a second off the pace here, and couldn't get close to the 2nd Mercedes, now it is quarter of a second.  It isn't as near as I hoped, but it is closer than before.  Maybe the Ferrari will be better on some tracks, or in race trim, or maybe they can develop quicker this season (ok maybe getting far fetched now).  I know it was mentioned a few times at Barcelona that the Ferrari appeared better through the corners than the Mercedes.  No need to get massively excited, but a bit early for writing off the season. 

What spread would you put on Ferrari wins? 

The development pace of Ferrari will be an interesting one this season .. because it has been very poor over the last few years, with no real reason why other than mis-management, it's certainly not money related. This is one major reason why I make Red Bull the favourites for second in the championship, they'll out-develop Ferrari over the season. In my mind, Mercedes absolute worst percentage of taking the title is 90%, but I'm more than happy for the 10% to happen - would actually be better for the sport. Not to mention that I have a large bet that I placed several years ago on Vettel to score more wins than Schumacher in their respective careers.

I expect Mercedes to win 16 or 17 races, leaving 3 or 4 races for Ferrari and/or Red Bull to win. Probably go for 17 / 2 (Red Bull) / 1 (Ferrari) if pushed.

Interestingly, just noticed that you can currently get 500/1 on Manor winning the constructors championship. Okay then.

good start for the Vettel bet all in all i felt. Encouraging, especially as there are points to get while Bottas is a bit behind the curve

only needs to finish 3rd in the WDC for it to turn a profit.

i am not around today.if tikay is he can place bets

By better through the corners, I meant smoother, and not faster.  But guess the tires aren't going to fall apart this year.

A bit of 13/2 fifth first 3 Bottas available this morning for the championship.  Obv giving up a fair bit up on win price, but surely 13/10 first 3 is a good bet.

Edit suggest 25 e/w if we can get on with tote/fred. 



"Smoother" is a trait you'd associate with a driver rather than a vehicle, I think you might mean well-balanced instead? Although based on what I saw in testing, I wouldn't agree with that.

Yep, I'd have suggested that too. Anything over EVS on Bottas first three is worth doing, only hesitation is that we already have lots of money tied up on Valtteri. A good bet though.

---

Been looking through the markets but there doesn't appear to be too much out there really, which is unusual for a first race. Only got one suggestion at the moment:

Fastest Lap - Lewis Hamilton @ 6/4 with Bet Stars. With tyre wear no longer a real concern this season, the fastest lap award should become much easier to predict. As things currently stand, Lewis has quite some margin on the field. Why this is over EVS is beyond me. £25.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/fastest-lap

There are a few viable spreads out there:

- McLaren Multi-Finishing Positions - Buy @ 126. Maximum score for one driver is 12. If both retire (most likely scenario), the total is 144. Fernando did qualify 13th, but with a big gap to 12th, so I think this is a very good spot.

- Bottas/Raikkonen - Buy @ 4. There's really nothing to suggest that Valtteri will be beaten by Kimi this weekend unless there are unusual circumstances. Mercedes' reliability has been good also. This is a definite bet.
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« Reply #126714 on: March 25, 2017, 05:12:40 PM »

Fleetwood look a big price at 8/5 away to Bury tomo with BFSB.

Unbeaten away since November. Fleetwood in 3rd, Bury in 17th.

Only just seen this Mark, sorry.

Hope it gets home for a variety of reasons. Smiley
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« Reply #126715 on: March 25, 2017, 08:13:25 PM »

Sweat coming on the next Barca manager. We have £10 on Valverde at 33-1 from last March and he's currently 6-4. Market pretty much has no idea though.
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« Reply #126716 on: March 26, 2017, 08:52:03 AM »

No spoilers, as many of you wont watch the Aussie F1 GP until later today, but a very enjoyable watch, and we might just have a good season in prospect.

Game on, and roll on Shanghai in a fortnight.
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« Reply #126717 on: March 26, 2017, 09:49:18 AM »

No spoilers, as many of you wont watch the Aussie F1 GP until later today, but a very enjoyable watch, and we might just have a good season in prospect.

Game on, and roll on Shanghai in a fortnight.

Yeah, wasn't bad was it? I think some big concerns still remain, but other factors are actually making it somewhat interesting (being vague on purpose to avoid spoiling it for anyone). Will be interesting to see how it plays out in China, a very different circuit Smiley
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« Reply #126718 on: March 26, 2017, 10:28:33 AM »

Tal doesn't post right now, surely we can post spoilers here?  It is a betting thread and there is betting that could be discussed right now.
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« Reply #126719 on: March 26, 2017, 10:36:53 AM »

Going to post a spoiler and a bet













Surely there is a massive overreaction to Vettel's win and we should be taking the 11/10 Hamilton with Hills etc.  Makes the book v nice too.  Suggest £75 Hamilton 11/10 with Hills.

11/8 best Vettel is seriously LOL
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