Tips for Tikay

[Peter-27]

Agreed. Mercedes made a fundamentally bad strategy call today, but now they've realised that they have the same struggles this season as in 2016 when it comes to being in the pack and dealing with turbulent air, they'll adjust their future race plans accordingly.

Out of interest, why £75?

[TightEnd]

if its much more difficult to overtake this year (it is, right? wider cars, wider tyres, better aero) then we might not see a race where someone wins by overtaking on track rather than the overcut/undercut?

if that's correct, then how does Hamilton slice through fields when required? couldn't overtake Max today at the critical time on fresher tyresand we already know it suffers following cars. all its wins over 3 years have come from qualifying up front and going away from the start

also,one one race's evidence,it looks much tougher on its tyres than other teams?

Vettel 14/1 looks brilliant,i would want to see another race before backing Hamilton

[TightEnd]

the Fleetwood bet is becoming quite a good sweat after dropping two more points at ry yesterday

now 3rd with 69 points and 7 games to go,and losing form. We need 3rd upwards for a return

Bradford are 4th with 66, Scunthorpe 5th with 64 and playing each other now at the soulless (possibly the worst of the new grounds, coincidentally the earliest of the new grounds) Glanford Park

[Doobs]

if its much more difficult to overtake this year (it is, right? wider cars, wider tyres, better aero) then we might not see a race where someone wins by overtaking on track rather than the overcut/undercut?

if that's correct, then how does Hamilton slice through fields when required? couldn't overtake Max today at the critical time on fresher tyresand we already know it suffers following cars. all its wins over 3 years have come from qualifying up front and going away from the start

also,one one race's evidence,it looks much tougher on its tyres than other teams?

Vettel 14/1 looks brilliant,i would want to see another race before backing Hamilton

The bit around stability around the corners was something I picked up on day 1 or 2 of testing.  In amongst the dross there were a couple of people who noted that the Ferrari was more stable around the corners and the Mercedes was more jittery.  This would be consistent with the tyre issues.  14/1 is obviously great now, but still feel it was an overeaction.  Betfair is back in to 2/2.04 which suggests the market realises it was an overeaction.

For Peter 75 was just a middish way point between bets.  We have 50 Vettel, much more on Bottas.  I was only going to suggest putting 50 on, but changed my mind whilst posting.

On to the next one.

[nirvana]

Peter, my own little F1 fans club are all heavily on Kimi for the title, are we in with a shout ?

[Peter-27]

if its much more difficult to overtake this year (it is, right? wider cars, wider tyres, better aero) then we might not see a race where someone wins by overtaking on track rather than the overcut/undercut?

if that's correct, then how does Hamilton slice through fields when required? couldn't overtake Max today at the critical time on fresher tyresand we already know it suffers following cars. all its wins over 3 years have come from qualifying up front and going away from the start

also,one one race's evidence,it looks much tougher on its tyres than other teams?

Vettel 14/1 looks brilliant,i would want to see another race before backing Hamilton

The bit around stability around the corners was something I picked up on day 1 or 2 of testing.  In amongst the dross there were a couple of people who noted that the Ferrari was more stable around the corners and the Mercedes was more jittery.  This would be consistent with the tyre issues.  14/1 is obviously great now, but still feel it was an overeaction.  Betfair is back in to 2/2.04 which suggests the market realises it was an overeaction.

For Peter 75 was just a middish way point between bets.  We have 50 Vettel, much more on Bottas.  I was only going to suggest putting 50 on, but changed my mind whilst posting.

On to the next one.

It is extremely difficult to overtake this year it seems. People are trying to keep up hope by saying that the Albert Park circuit is always traditionally difficult to pass on, but I don't really agree with that. The races in the early 2000's produced loads of overtakes on this track. What could make this season interesting though is the strategy (historically one stop races aren't hugely exciting, but three tyre compounds at each event mixes it up), and the drivers input.

Last season Mercedes struggled in turbulent air, and they appear to have kept that trait this season too. In 2016, they managed it in the majority of races by timing their pit stop to ensure they come out in clear air. It didn't always work, but it did most of the time. I see no reason why that same approach won't be applicable - and work - this season. Therefore, in most races, Lewis won't need to slice through the field.

I'm not considering tyre wear as a huge factor this season. The tyres are so durable that it shouldn't really be an issue - although it will be interesting to see what happens as we visit races with extreme temperatures.

Doobs, do you remember who said that Ferrari have more stability around corners? I'd be interested to know why they think that way because that's not what I saw. Then again, if that's data from days one and two of testing, that literally has zero relevance at this point.

Well, why did you want to go for a middle value? Just trying to understand the process because bet sizing is something I have always struggled with.

Peter, my own little F1 fans club are all heavily on Kimi for the title, are we in with a shout ?

I would say that's a 2% chance. Sorry.

[Doobs]

if its much more difficult to overtake this year (it is, right? wider cars, wider tyres, better aero) then we might not see a race where someone wins by overtaking on track rather than the overcut/undercut?

if that's correct, then how does Hamilton slice through fields when required? couldn't overtake Max today at the critical time on fresher tyresand we already know it suffers following cars. all its wins over 3 years have come from qualifying up front and going away from the start

also,one one race's evidence,it looks much tougher on its tyres than other teams?

Vettel 14/1 looks brilliant,i would want to see another race before backing Hamilton

The bit around stability around the corners was something I picked up on day 1 or 2 of testing.  In amongst the dross there were a couple of people who noted that the Ferrari was more stable around the corners and the Mercedes was more jittery.  This would be consistent with the tyre issues.  14/1 is obviously great now, but still feel it was an overeaction.  Betfair is back in to 2/2.04 which suggests the market realises it was an overeaction.

For Peter 75 was just a middish way point between bets.  We have 50 Vettel, much more on Bottas.  I was only going to suggest putting 50 on, but changed my mind whilst posting.

On to the next one.

It is extremely difficult to overtake this year it seems. People are trying to keep up hope by saying that the Albert Park circuit is always traditionally difficult to pass on, but I don't really agree with that. The races in the early 2000's produced loads of overtakes on this track. What could make this season interesting though is the strategy (historically one stop races aren't hugely exciting, but three tyre compounds at each event mixes it up), and the drivers input.

Last season Mercedes struggled in turbulent air, and they appear to have kept that trait this season too. In 2016, they managed it in the majority of races by timing their pit stop to ensure they come out in clear air. It didn't always work, but it did most of the time. I see no reason why that same approach won't be applicable - and work - this season. Therefore, in most races, Lewis won't need to slice through the field.

I'm not considering tyre wear as a huge factor this season. The tyres are so durable that it shouldn't really be an issue - although it will be interesting to see what happens as we visit races with extreme temperatures.

Doobs, do you remember who said that Ferrari have more stability around corners? I'd be interested to know why they think that way because that's not what I saw. Then again, if that's data from days one and two of testing, that literally has zero relevance at this point.

Well, why did you want to go for a middle value? Just trying to understand the process because bet sizing is something I have always struggled with.

Peter, my own little F1 fans club are all heavily on Kimi for the title, are we in with a shout ?

I would say that's a 2% chance. Sorry.

I really couldn't tell you now.   I was searching motor racing mags,  hashtags for ferrari, Vettel, Hamilton and MercedesF1 etc.  I remember someone sat at one corner saying how much smoother the Ferrari was through there than the Mercedes.  It was just something I picked up at the time and thought was relevant.  Doing these kind of mass searches probably aren't that great for main markets, but you can get gold for some specials markets if you put the time in (and you aren't limited to 50p bet sizes).  I'd certainly take a good while looking before backing ante post too.

Bet sizing is different here than on my own account.  I tend to just bet £50 here, because I get that Tikay doesn't like betting big.  I do sometimes bet 100 and 150.  A lot of bets are fairly limited by the size of bets on my 365 account.  I don't want to research a horse and then give tikay the max, as then I get very little or zero.  So all the 365 bets are limited to 25 e/w on my account.

Away from here, my own bet size is bigger.  If I think something is very good and not likely to get an account closed, I tend to hit bookmaker limits before my own.  I struggle to get to high street bookies as I frequently have kids with me.

If your normal bet size is x, I'd say your max should be at least 5x.  The big psychological barrier is the 5x bets on 20/1 upwards.  Just go for it, accounts won't last forver, and it will be a shame if you lose an account for backing Rahm or Konta at 100/1 and only have a fiver on.  But these are a bit theoretical now, as bookies chop the big odds bets even further.  A fair few seem to limit me to £100 winnings.  So I might get £90 on Hamilton at 11/10, but only £8 on Vettel at 12/1 at one of these bookies (i have a fair bit more on Vettel), but was lucky that I could get a decent enough bet on Vettel at the time.

[TightEnd]

not the worst little portfolio in the world rinswun?

golf   US Open   Rahm   125/1   16   £8 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5
golf   USPGA   Rahm   100/1   10   £5 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5
golf   Masters   Rahm   66/1           40   £20 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5

couldn't get much on a couple of them

Rahm now 20/1 for augusta and in the top 10 of the market

[nirvana]

Peter, my own little F1 fans club are all heavily on Kimi for the title, are we in with a shout ?

I would say that's a 2% chance. Sorry.
[/quote]

Aah well. We're mainly just fans so well have to call in our one time like we do every year 'while the Ferrari is red, the bet's not dead'

[rinswun]

not the worst little portfolio in the world rinswun?

golf   US Open   Rahm   125/1   16   £8 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5
golf   USPGA   Rahm   100/1   10   £5 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5
golf   Masters   Rahm   66/1           40   £20 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5

couldn't get much on a couple of them

Rahm now 20/1 for augusta and in the top 10 of the market

It's certainly not bad, shame we couldn't get a little more on but we mustn't grumble.

He lost the final to yesterday which is neither here nor there but I think the nature of the defeat will be hugely positive. He went 5 down through 8 and looked a bit like a rabbit in the headlights in what was the biggest moment of his career to date. However, he pulled himself together and ended up winning 4 of the next 9 holes before finally losing 1 down. That experience has to stand him in good stead when in the final group on Sunday during all four majors this year.

[Rubbish2407]

Womens Golf ended up being pretty Meh. We were EW Sung Hyun Park (1,2,3) and she finished ........T4 and we were Top 10 on Lizette Salas and she was........11th. FML.

Ariya Jutanugarn came nowhere.

There was an amazing stat this week. World number one Lydia Ko missed only her second ever cut in 93 LPGA starts. The amazing stat, She's only 19. Played her first tourney at 14 and only missed one cut before last weekend. Amazing talent.



Big week coming up for the Ladies with the First Major of the year, The ANA Inspiration. Defending Champion is ............................................. Lydia Ko.

In other news Lions go 4-1

[TightEnd]

County championship div 1

starts next week

division reduced to 8 teams this year, play each other home and away

extremely competitive,of the 8 teams i wouldn't be able to make the case for Essex or Hampshire,possibly not Lancs either, but would have a crack at arguing for any of the other five

Middlesex won it last year just ahead of Somerset and 2015 winners yorkshire

Yorkshire have plenty of off the field financial problems this year, and likely plenty of England call ups. Lots of young talent coming through though but look plenty short enough to me in this line up at 9/4

Middlesex will be thereabouts again

Warwicks and Surrey would have to improve but both might do so (surrey in particular have recruited 2000+ runs into their team from last season with stoneman and borthwick)

the one i am really interested in is Somerset at 8/1 each way

https://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-1/county-championship-division-one/winner

second last year, experienced core (tresco,hildreth, trego, allenby etc). lost chris rogers but have recruited steve davies for the middle order and have one of english cricket's next batting stars in Tom Abell up top, and conveniently its a season or two too early for him tomiss time with England

lots and lots of bowling talent, young good quicks (overtons) and the best english spinner in the championship last year (Leach ,65 wickets at 21 and has spent the winter working on his action)

lewis gregory and Craig Overton took the new ball againast the champion county in dubai this week and took a combined 9-69 up top on a dry wicket and are both set for big seasons

one of the things i like is that at Taunton they prepare result wickets

green early season (sometimes you cannot tell the wicket from the outfield) and as it dries up later on they play CC cricket on used pitches and it turns square

Wth the points system so biased towards winning games (win 16 points, 8 possible bonus points, only 3 for a draw) you simply don't want to be playing at the oval (say) where 450 plays 450 for much of the season, especially now the season is shorter with fewer 4 day games

i can't for the life of me see how they are 5th favourites in an 8 team heat after last season when they nearly won it

Rec £50 e/w Somerset LVCC Div 1 8-1 Betfred 1/5 1,2,3

[Marky147]

Timing... Can Fred get on, or need help?

[Marky147]

Bald just shortened, but have got Fred on @ 8/1.

[Doobs]

8-1 at corals amd lots of others.

E/w terms aren't great.  Should be naturally 1/4 first 3, but everybody is a fifth.