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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13332737 times)
McGlashan
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« Reply #129855 on: August 15, 2017, 02:50:00 PM »

McGlashen/Bazza - What do you think will be the biggest price matched pre fight on Mayweather on betfair for decent money?  How big can he get?

Originally I was thinking 1/3 tops. Strategy wise sit back and wait for Mayweather SP. Worst case scenario take 1/4.
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« Reply #129856 on: August 15, 2017, 03:01:42 PM »

Any of the boxing boys changing their minds a bit as we near the Money/Conor fight? Or are the odds just now too good to be true?

If he ends up anywhere near Hatton prices, I'll try and pay for next years Vegas flight Cheesy

That was my point mainly.  Could it ever get that stupid where money is going off 4/6?  I think this is one of those situations where 99% of wagons pissed up on a Saturday night are only going to be betting one guy because a) he is odds against and b) he is irish c) they love his attitude etc.

Boxing theory is out the window and you're in a better spot to predict the market. Books are running up huge liabilities on McGregor, like share price moving stuff. Both US and Euro books have reported taking 10 bets on Conor at 4's or 5's for every Mayweather bet.
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arbboy
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« Reply #129857 on: August 15, 2017, 03:05:40 PM »

Any of the boxing boys changing their minds a bit as we near the Money/Conor fight? Or are the odds just now too good to be true?

If he ends up anywhere near Hatton prices, I'll try and pay for next years Vegas flight Cheesy

That was my point mainly.  Could it ever get that stupid where money is going off 4/6?  I think this is one of those situations where 99% of wagons pissed up on a Saturday night are only going to be betting one guy because a) he is odds against and b) he is irish c) they love his attitude etc.

Boxing theory is out the window and you're in a better spot to predict the market. Books are running up huge liabilities on McGregor, like share price moving stuff. Both US and Euro books have reported taking 10 bets on Conor at 4's or 5's for every Mayweather bet.

That is misleading though because the mayweather bets will be four/five/six figures so it doesn't mean a lot that kind of data tbh.  There are only so many people who can have five figures on something however and once they are full they are full.  There is a virtually unlimited supply of global casuals who won't mind investing in the Irishman as a one off.
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McGlashan
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« Reply #129858 on: August 15, 2017, 03:13:41 PM »

Any of the boxing boys changing their minds a bit as we near the Money/Conor fight? Or are the odds just now too good to be true?

If he ends up anywhere near Hatton prices, I'll try and pay for next years Vegas flight Cheesy

That was my point mainly.  Could it ever get that stupid where money is going off 4/6?  I think this is one of those situations where 99% of wagons pissed up on a Saturday night are only going to be betting one guy because a) he is odds against and b) he is irish c) they love his attitude etc.

Boxing theory is out the window and you're in a better spot to predict the market. Books are running up huge liabilities on McGregor, like share price moving stuff. Both US and Euro books have reported taking 10 bets on Conor at 4's or 5's for every Mayweather bet.

That is misleading though because the mayweather bets will be four/five/six figures so it doesn't mean a lot that kind of data tbh.  There are only so many people who can have five figures on something however and once they are full they are full.  There is a virtually unlimited supply of global casuals who won't mind investing in the Irishman as a one off.

Once source said the Mayweather bets stake sizes were 2x as much not fifty.
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arbboy
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« Reply #129859 on: August 15, 2017, 03:45:44 PM »

https://www.sportinglife.com/boxing/news/malignaggi-calls-out-mcgregor/96925
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arbboy
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« Reply #129860 on: August 15, 2017, 03:50:46 PM »

Looks mid/wid at Crayford this afternoon on the bags.
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Marky147
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« Reply #129861 on: August 15, 2017, 04:10:02 PM »


Never saw that coming Cheesy
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Bazzaboy
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« Reply #129862 on: August 15, 2017, 07:47:07 PM »

Any of the boxing boys changing their minds a bit as we near the Money/Conor fight? Or are the odds just now too good to be true?

If he ends up anywhere near Hatton prices, I'll try and pay for next years Vegas flight Cheesy

That was my point mainly.  Could it ever get that stupid where money is going off 4/6?  I think this is one of those situations where 99% of wagons pissed up on a Saturday night are only going to be betting one guy because a) he is odds against and b) he is irish c) they love his attitude etc.

I can't see it getting that big but I wouldn't be surprised to see it go off around 2/5
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« Reply #129863 on: August 15, 2017, 08:55:15 PM »

The bullshit rumours that Floyd was KO'd by Judah in sparring won't do the price any harm.
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« Reply #129864 on: August 17, 2017, 08:27:25 AM »

Total season points are out on everyday at the moment (haven't seen them elsewhere I'm afraid) Had a quick scan through yesterday and Rams o300 points jumps out to me. 224, 280, 324, 348. 299.

Historically that doesn't look too good, but those numbers were under Jeff Fisher. He was horrible for them last year, negative and uninspiring throughout the season, Gurley described them as playing a high school offense)  They have a new coach now, Sean McVay coming over from a high scoring Washington team where he was the offensive coordinator. They've improved their offensive line, and with the addition of Sammy Watkins have a viable target on the outside which should help open things up for Todd Gurley. Jared Goff will be better coming into his second year with a little bit of protection in front of him as well.

Recommend 50 at 9/5 if you've got someone who can get on if Tighty and co. agree with that.
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« Reply #129865 on: August 17, 2017, 09:26:10 AM »

If you hadn't seen the scoreline, this would have been a tough one to predict based on the stats.
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tikay
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« Reply #129866 on: August 17, 2017, 09:45:58 AM »

If you hadn't seen the scoreline, this would have been a tough one to predict based on the stats.

Yes, I saw that - 3 shots on target, but they won 5-0.

I watched the game, & found myself, as so often, going to Wiki to get to know a bit more about Astana FC.

Fascinating stuff. (For nerdy types, anyway).

Astana are, in effect, owned by the State (Kazakhstan), via a sovereign wealth fund.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samruk-Kazyna

The Coaching Team is pretty big (by Kazakh standards), compromising Manager, Assistant Manager, 3 x First Team Coaches, Goalkeeping Coach, Doctor, Administrator, & if that were not enough, a First Team Methodist, (a what?), First Team Rehabilitologist (?) &, a term I had never seen before, a "Massagist".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FC_Astana

First Team Methodist sounded religious, but I guess it refers to strategy & "method".

Nice stadium though, retractable roof & all that, far better than most EPL Stadia, & maybe even on a par with The Emirates. 


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astana_Arena



« Last Edit: August 17, 2017, 09:59:21 AM by tikay » Logged

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« Reply #129867 on: August 17, 2017, 09:50:11 AM »

Still a bit of 8-13 and 4-7 around about Middlesbrough finishing top six. This is basically like finding it on the street. It will happen. Shame it's with Scuy and £3.65.

4-7 in a double with Floyd @ 2-9 comes to around 10-11. Easy moneys.
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« Reply #129868 on: August 17, 2017, 01:18:46 PM »

Total season points are out on everyday at the moment (haven't seen them elsewhere I'm afraid) Had a quick scan through yesterday and Rams o300 points jumps out to me. 224, 280, 324, 348. 299.

Historically that doesn't look too good, but those numbers were under Jeff Fisher. He was horrible for them last year, negative and uninspiring throughout the season, Gurley described them as playing a high school offense)  They have a new coach now, Sean McVay coming over from a high scoring Washington team where he was the offensive coordinator. They've improved their offensive line, and with the addition of Sammy Watkins have a viable target on the outside which should help open things up for Todd Gurley. Jared Goff will be better coming into his second year with a little bit of protection in front of him as well.

Recommend 50 at 9/5 if you've got someone who can get on if Tighty and co. agree with that.

we have 32 teams to choose from and we want to go over the Rams  Cheesy (granted 300 is only 18 points a game,so only prodding you playfully)

not a huge fan of their schedule they get NFC East and AFC South this year, think there are 4-5 strong defenses in those divisions.

that said its not 10/11 each of two over/under, so nearly 2/1 on the offense beginning to improve

will open it up to views....
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Cavey007
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« Reply #129869 on: August 17, 2017, 01:23:33 PM »

Total season points are out on everyday at the moment (haven't seen them elsewhere I'm afraid) Had a quick scan through yesterday and Rams o300 points jumps out to me. 224, 280, 324, 348. 299.

Historically that doesn't look too good, but those numbers were under Jeff Fisher. He was horrible for them last year, negative and uninspiring throughout the season, Gurley described them as playing a high school offense)  They have a new coach now, Sean McVay coming over from a high scoring Washington team where he was the offensive coordinator. They've improved their offensive line, and with the addition of Sammy Watkins have a viable target on the outside which should help open things up for Todd Gurley. Jared Goff will be better coming into his second year with a little bit of protection in front of him as well.

Recommend 50 at 9/5 if you've got someone who can get on if Tighty and co. agree with that.

we have 32 teams to choose from and we want to go over the Rams  Cheesy (granted 300 is only 18 points a game,so only prodding you playfully)

not a huge fan of their schedule they get NFC East and AFC South this year, think there are 4-5 strong defenses in those divisions.

that said its not 10/11 each of two over/under, so nearly 2/1 on the offense beginning to improve

will open it up to views....

That's a fair point, I was looking at them while doing a draft last night so didn't get deep into schedules, just last yr totals and my perception of whether that team will be better or not. But I think 300 was the lowest overs total on there, and with it being a completely new offence I thought they were basing it too much on last year's performance. In fairness I think the niners were o300 too with a Shanahan offence, but they'll face the same defences as the Rams.

The Ravens on the unders was another I was tempted by. U326 but I hate taking unders. Just don't seem them having much offence. I think they'll be getting to the 40 and then letting Tucker kick it from halfway and their defence has the potential to be one of the best so they won't need to score a whole lot either
« Last Edit: August 17, 2017, 01:27:15 PM by Cavey007 » Logged

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