Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Mariota passing yards are low in Indy. They're conceding 274.5 per game through the air (and they've been able to play against Kizer and Savage). Mariota is off a long rest, which will should secure his recovery from previous hamstring issues.

Recency bias recalls him finding Steelers' chests 10 days ago, but that Steelers defense is decent and the Titans have been playing good defenses quite often this season. Indy appalling against the pass (31st numberfire; 27th Football Outsiders).

Could even be a shootout, as it's not like the Titans can defend. Line is 240.5 (Scuy - 10/11) or 227.5 (Paddy - 5/6). Would set it nearer 270 personally.

Open to views on whether we wait for the other bookies to put their markets up or take it now.

5/6 is grim but it's a low line. Can accommodate Fred for up to £50 if desired.

Hi Tal,

Tighty is not around today as far as I can see, so I'm in charge.

Can we book that £50 bet please?

[tikay]

Tay-Tay, What do you think?

Click to see full-size image.

I dare not answer that.

[Tal]

Mariota passing yards are low in Indy. They're conceding 274.5 per game through the air (and they've been able to play against Kizer and Savage). Mariota is off a long rest, which will should secure his recovery from previous hamstring issues.

Recency bias recalls him finding Steelers' chests 10 days ago, but that Steelers defense is decent and the Titans have been playing good defenses quite often this season. Indy appalling against the pass (31st numberfire; 27th Football Outsiders).

Could even be a shootout, as it's not like the Titans can defend. Line is 240.5 (Scuy - 10/11) or 227.5 (Paddy - 5/6). Would set it nearer 270 personally.

Open to views on whether we wait for the other bookies to put their markets up or take it now.

5/6 is grim but it's a low line. Can accommodate Fred for up to £50 if desired.

Hi Tal,

Tighty is not around today as far as I can see, so I'm in charge.

Can we book that £50 bet please?

Booked

[sonour]

The Stoke to be relegated bet.

I think we placed this bet with a view to trading out because Stoke had a tough start.
I'm not quite sure why we are letting the bet run now.
We can trade out now for a small free roll and I really can't see Stoke getting much shorter.
Can't remember whose bet it is, Maybe Arb / Tighty.

[Doobs]

The Stoke to be relegated bet.

I think we placed this bet with a view to trading out because Stoke had a tough start.
I'm not quite sure why we are letting the bet run now.
We can trade out now for a small free roll and I really can't see Stoke getting much shorter.
Can't remember whose bet it is, Maybe Arb / Tighty.

Not sure Tikay has much previous for locking £1400 up for 6 months to close a bet and not convinced Tighty put it up as a trade.    Can they not go shorter?  Palace are improving.  West Ham could be.  Everton surely can't get worse?

Not a bet or anything, but for lovers of random sports,  GB leading after heat 1 of the bobsleigh and on the red button.  Could be epic.

edit. meh.  2nd

[Peter-27]

As I am absolutely certain you're all aware, today is the final race of the 2017 F1 season 

The series has been in a phase of stability during the latter half of the season, which has meant a lack of opportunities in the betting market. Today is no different; I've only got the one spot to suggest.

Race Winner - Lewis Hamilton @ EVS+ with Marathon & Hills. With Valtteri's pole yesterday, it's possible that he's re-discovering some form now that the title has been decided. However, whether or not Valtteri can maintain his lead over a race distance remains to be seen, I suspect not today. For that reason, this is a lump spot. Ferrari's pace should be too far off to be any sort of threat here.

[TightEnd]

As I am absolutely certain you're all aware, today is the final race of the 2017 F1 season 

The series has been in a phase of stability during the latter half of the season, which has meant a lack of opportunities in the betting market. Today is no different; I've only got the one spot to suggest.

Race Winner - Lewis Hamilton @ EVS+ with Marathon & Hills. With Valtteri's pole yesterday, it's possible that he's re-discovering some form now that the title has been decided. However, whether or not Valtteri can maintain his lead over a race distance remains to be seen, I suspect not today. For that reason, this is a lump spot. Ferrari's pace should be too far off to be any sort of threat here.

surely they will want to give Bottas the win? (a remote chance of 2nd in the champ) and confidence booster to go into next year?

in what circunstances will they allow Lewis to overtake him on track? surely very few?

[Peter-27]

As I am absolutely certain you're all aware, today is the final race of the 2017 F1 season 

The series has been in a phase of stability during the latter half of the season, which has meant a lack of opportunities in the betting market. Today is no different; I've only got the one spot to suggest.

Race Winner - Lewis Hamilton @ EVS+ with Marathon & Hills. With Valtteri's pole yesterday, it's possible that he's re-discovering some form now that the title has been decided. However, whether or not Valtteri can maintain his lead over a race distance remains to be seen, I suspect not today. For that reason, this is a lump spot. Ferrari's pace should be too far off to be any sort of threat here.

surely they will want to give Bottas the win? (a remote chance of 2nd in the champ) and confidence booster to go into next year?

in what circunstances will they allow Lewis to overtake him on track? surely very few?

That's a valid point, but there are 22 points between Valtteri and Sebastian. It's pretty clear that the only way Valtteri gets second is if Sebastian has a DNF. I don't think Mercedes will enforce any orders until the very end (in the unlikely event they're required).

Having said that, I hope Lewis stays behind Valtteri, we could see a mega train of cars which would be fun.

[Tal]

Bengals Elders...

Browns +7.5 is available. Are the teams that far apart right now?

That's the same line as they were last week against the Jags. Now granted there's a home/away swing there, but Cleveland hasn't exactly been a fortress this year. Weather was bad last week, but this is a divisional game against a team that will be glad for a win of any kind.

Views welcome

[kukushkin88]

Bengals Elders...

Browns +7.5 is available. Are the teams that far apart right now?

That's the same line as they were last week against the Jags. Now granted there's a home/away swing there, but Cleveland hasn't exactly been a fortress this year. Weather was bad last week, but this is a divisional game against a team that will be glad for a win of any kind.

Views welcome

Just came on to post that the Browns are a bet again this week. Much more to like about this match up than last week imo.

[Tal]

Bengals Elders...

Browns +7.5 is available. Are the teams that far apart right now?

That's the same line as they were last week against the Jags. Now granted there's a home/away swing there, but Cleveland hasn't exactly been a fortress this year. Weather was bad last week, but this is a divisional game against a team that will be glad for a win of any kind.

Views welcome

Just came on to post that the Browns are a bet again this week. Much more to like about this match up than last week imo.

We need to stop agreeing, Mr Kushkin. It's costing both a fortune!

[kukushkin88]

Bengals Elders...

Browns +7.5 is available. Are the teams that far apart right now?

That's the same line as they were last week against the Jags. Now granted there's a home/away swing there, but Cleveland hasn't exactly been a fortress this year. Weather was bad last week, but this is a divisional game against a team that will be glad for a win of any kind.

Views welcome

Just came on to post that the Browns are a bet again this week. Much more to like about this match up than last week imo.

We need to stop agreeing, Mr Kushkin. It's costing both a fortune!

We just need to keep making good bets, the rest will look after itself.

[Tal]

Bengals Elders...

Browns +7.5 is available. Are the teams that far apart right now?

That's the same line as they were last week against the Jags. Now granted there's a home/away swing there, but Cleveland hasn't exactly been a fortress this year. Weather was bad last week, but this is a divisional game against a team that will be glad for a win of any kind.

Views welcome

Just came on to post that the Browns are a bet again this week. Much more to like about this match up than last week imo.

We need to stop agreeing, Mr Kushkin. It's costing both a fortune!

We just need to keep making good bets, the rest will look after itself.

We need to tell the Browns. I'm one more keystone cops performance away from sending them an invoice.

[kukushkin88]

Bengals Elders...

Browns +7.5 is available. Are the teams that far apart right now?

That's the same line as they were last week against the Jags. Now granted there's a home/away swing there, but Cleveland hasn't exactly been a fortress this year. Weather was bad last week, but this is a divisional game against a team that will be glad for a win of any kind.

Views welcome

Just came on to post that the Browns are a bet again this week. Much more to like about this match up than last week imo.

We need to stop agreeing, Mr Kushkin. It's costing both a fortune!

We just need to keep making good bets, the rest will look after itself.

We need to tell the Browns. I'm one more keystone cops performance away from sending them an invoice.

Backing mistake prone teams is definitely +ev, we're just having to play the long game. I like them outright tonight as well.

[Ant040689]

Random sing when we are winning post to give insight into Palace.

I was tongue in cheek ready to start a Hodgson out campaign by the 88th minute of the game yesterday after he still pursued a 4-4-2 system that had 4 players out of position in the first half and only works against the teams that play a high line where Zaha and Townsend could run in behind. Yesterday for the first half instead they were passengers up top as they didn't particularly know how to play up front against a deep line and we had Loftus Cheek and McCarthur on the wings which meant there was no incisiveness there either. So it was pretty drab viewing for most of the game.

Half time and he brings on Benteke but still plays two up top which puts an onus on Benteke to also run in behind which he is useless at as we were not using him particularly as a target man but to good success when we did, and we had Zaha there with him who is our best player but was lost for a lot of the match as he would have been better off playing on the wing.

A 4-5-1 was implemented at around the 88th minute and all of a sudden we looked threatening and it made me irate at the time (i know im a pretty hard bloke) Hodgson left it so late to make in my amateur opinion was an obvious move. Then we went on to look dominatingly threatening and got that bit of luck that we have missed all season.

If its a 4-4-2 we start against Brighton on Tuesday I'll cry. I want a 4-5-1 with Benteke up top, Townsend and Zaha on the wings with Loftus cheek central and I think we will be alright and it was the same setup Allardyce had so much success with at the back end of last season.

Hodgson clearly hasn't the best trust in Benteke mainly as he is awful in a lot of striking areas, but as a linker of play up top he is crucial for our wingers to get forward and isn't bad positionally for a tap in or a bullet header.

Views on the rest of the season come out of having a look at us settling into a 4-5-1 and seeing what we are about. As for Saturday, we were outrageously lucky, but it was about time. Big rivalry match on Tuesday and i can't wait.

-------------------------------

How about Watford at 4/1 generally (5/1 MarathonBet) at home to Man U in midweek? Looks like at least a laying opportunity with how Brighton did so well for so long to frustrate them and Watford winning their last two without conceding.