Tips for Tikay

[Ant040689]

Everton are 10/1 on Everyday; a pretty accurate reflection of their chances. They've not faced any top 10 clubs since their change in form, and their back four will struggle against Liverpool's firepower. Finally, our record in derbys is pretty poor; last win at Anfield? 1989 or thereabouts, lol.

I'd love to be totally wrong, of course.

Do you guys set up for the counter? You have pace on the break as well. It just looks like Allardyce could nab a surprise here, much like how Palace could against teams that were susceptible to the counter. Obviously could be a destruction with Liverpool as such a potent offensive force.

Just think at around 3/1 you might get a value sweat. Again haven't done much homework on it, but i have had a nibble.

Everton have no pace in their team at all?

Lookman and Lennon i was thinking of.

[4KSuited]

Everton are 10/1 on Everyday; a pretty accurate reflection of their chances. They've not faced any top 10 clubs since their change in form, and their back four will struggle against Liverpool's firepower. Finally, our record in derbys is pretty poor; last win at Anfield? 1989 or thereabouts, lol.

I'd love to be totally wrong, of course.

Do you guys set up for the counter? You have pace on the break as well. It just looks like Allardyce could nab a surprise here, much like how Palace could against teams that were susceptible to the counter. Obviously could be a destruction with Liverpool as such a potent offensive force.

Just think at around 3/1 you might get a value sweat. Again haven't done much homework on it, but i have had a nibble.

Everton have no pace in their team at all?

Lookman and Lennon i was thinking of.

Sure, it's feasible that we could score one on a counter, but my key point is that I don't think we have a back four able to stop Liverpool scoring 2 or more (yet). Honestly, Liverpool are frightening up front atm. Far more potent than anything we've faced for our recent clean sheets!

[hhyftrftdr]

Shy have a flash sale boost for Chelsea, even money from 1/2, max bet £15

[Ant040689]

Shy have a flash sale boost for Chelsea, even money from 1/2, max bet £15

thanks for the heads up.

[Ant040689]

Everton are 10/1 on Everyday; a pretty accurate reflection of their chances. They've not faced any top 10 clubs since their change in form, and their back four will struggle against Liverpool's firepower. Finally, our record in derbys is pretty poor; last win at Anfield? 1989 or thereabouts, lol.

I'd love to be totally wrong, of course.

Do you guys set up for the counter? You have pace on the break as well. It just looks like Allardyce could nab a surprise here, much like how Palace could against teams that were susceptible to the counter. Obviously could be a destruction with Liverpool as such a potent offensive force.

Just think at around 3/1 you might get a value sweat. Again haven't done much homework on it, but i have had a nibble.

Everton have no pace in their team at all?

Lookman and Lennon i was thinking of.

Sure, it's feasible that we could score one on a counter, but my key point is that I don't think we have a back four able to stop Liverpool scoring 2 or more (yet). Honestly, Liverpool are frightening up front atm. Far more potent than anything we've faced for our recent clean sheets!

fair play i'm probably a bit wedded to Allardyce and what he did last time he was at anfield.

[hhyftrftdr]

Shy have a flash sale boost for Chelsea, even money from 1/2, max bet £15

thanks for the heads up.

Moyes the genius strikes again. Bet Shy took a small fortune off that! Glad it was only a max of £15 and not £50+ with hindsight

[tikay]

Strictly bet for tonight's semi finals. Get a cup of something warm.

Next elimination:

https://www.oddschecker.com/tv/strictly-come-dancing/next-elimination

Two dances tonight. Both are dances they haven't yet done.

I have been looking at the training footage. My notes:

Debbie and Giovanni are dancing a Foxtrot to ‘Isn’t She Lovely’ by Stevie Wonder Debbie has been doing panto prep this week, so has been short on training time. The footage suggests Giovanni has given her an easier routine to remember. There are lots of pivots, which she's good at, but which, if there are too many, might annoy the public in particular. Foxtrot should be fluid and floaty. Her heels are a bit forced (obvious and pronounced; unnatural), which is something a teacher might do where their student is struggling to remember to go forward on the heel. This will be solid and probably get 34-38 from the judges.

and a Jive to ‘I’m So Excited’ by the Pointer Sisters This could be troublesome. Debbie doesn't have the energy of some of her rivals and this will be her most testing latin for that. But worse than that is the need to have straight legs. The best guide for this is the cha cha, which she did in week 4:



She got 27 for that, which was middle of the road. You'll note that her legs were bent the entire time. Straight legs give you the hip action, because you get natural hips by pushing your feet through the floor. In slower dances like rumba, you have time to do that, but it's harder in cha cha and jive. She is brilliant at some of the technical aspects of the dances (arms, pointing her feet, emotion) but her footwork isn't strong. So I expect this to be a little weak.

Joe and Katya are performing an American Smooth to ‘Have You Met Miss Jones?’ by Robbie Williams Not a powerful dancer with his slight stature, but his footwork is a world away from Debbie's. Honestly, he has hugely improved the last month and this looks impccable. Not seen the lifts, but I wonder whether this might be conservative and sweet. I am expecting 36+

and the Argentine Tango to ‘Human’ by Rag n’ Bone Man. A warning last week not to overdo the choreography, with Davood going out. Katya has concentrated more on the ganchos and ochos (the kicking and swivelling you see in this dance in hold). Smart move. Slightly odd song of course, but this should be strong. My guess would be this cements his place at the top of the leaderboard.

Gemma and Aljaž are dancing the Rumba to ‘Beneath Your Beautiful’ by Labrinth featuring Emeli Sandé Gemma has been sneaky good the last few weeks (perhaps Blackpool aside, though I thought she was undermarked). This rumba is slow and very wisely so. Gemma has the technique to do this and her arms look surprisingly good. Aljaž could have played a blinder here.

and a Tango to ‘My Sharona’ by The Knack (Royal Blood cover) Interesting article here: https://www.express.co.uk/showbiz/tv-radio/889857/Strictly-Come-Dancing-2017-Gemma-Atkinson-Aljaz-Skorjanec-eliminated-BBC  Stick to non league footy, Mr Alger! This tango is strong, sharp and technically good. Aljaž has taught her very well. She looks like a finalist to me. More later...

Mollie and AJ are Waltzing to ‘Angel’ by Sarah McLachlan Footwork is an area of weakness, as she doesn't generate much power in stepping out. Hard when you are small, but not an excuse.

and performing a Samba to ‘Whenever, Wherever’ by Shakira This is a problem. She isn't pressing into the floor, which means she's dancing too "prim and properly". This is samba: the dance of the carnival. No holding back allowed. It's exceptionally difficult to do such different dances - she has the worst draw for that - and I don't see much to tell me she'll be anywhere but in the bottom two with the judges.

Alexandra and Gorka are performing a Salsa to ‘Finally’ by Cece Peniston This isn't bad. She moves very well and there's lots gong on in a challenging routine. I do think Gorka puts too much in his routines, but that might be because he wants Alexandra not to think about what's next and then go wrong or hesitate. Sometimes, she looks a bit like she's "dancing by numbers" (as Craig would say...albeit not to her), rather than investing in the story, but maybe that's me. Safe routine, this. Judges sure to be kind.

 and a Viennese Waltz to Tina Arena’s version of R.E.M’s ‘Everybody Hurts' Good song choice, this.



It isn't as pronounced as the 1-2-3 of a traditional Viennese, but I have no doubt this will be a strong dance for her. She turns well. All I will say is she sometimes can be a bit skitty with her feet in closing her feet and she is pigeon toed, but these things are less obvious in this ballroom dance. If she dances well, this will be highly marked. I expect fawning judges talking about goosebumps and "courage in a difficult week". Tears to follow. I'll be shouting "overmarked!"

So, what does this all mean?

Best guess at order:

Joe
Alexandra
Gemma
Debbie
Mollie

So then to the public vote.

The most unpopular of these is Alexandra. So much press has been made of it this week, you wonder whether it's a concerted effort to get a producer favourite into the final. I can't see her being in the top 3 on votes, so she is in danger of being in the bottom two.

So, in my view, is Debbie. Don't see them both making it, but it wouldn't astonish me. Not enough value in the market however to be backing either of these to go; one only goes if they both end up in the dance off.

Gemma and Joe have become more popular with the public and Mollie has had a bounce since a run of dance offs a month ago. I don't see Mollie out of the bottom two, but I do see Gemma dodging it at least half of the time. Everyone wants to see Katya's showdance, so Joe is a lock for the final.

Dance off is highest scoring dance from earlier.

What we know about the judges for the dance off:
- if anyone goes up against Alexandra or Debbie, they are out
- if any other two go against each other, it will probably be on the dance (though don't leave it to Shirley in a close one if you are up against Mollie, as you are toast)
- Darcey will put her hands on her temples and exclaim it's so hard to choose.

Joe v Alexandra or Joe v Debbie is very unlikely, as Joe will score highly tonight. Even if he's third, he will get votes. It makes it quite likely one of Alexandra or Debbie is in the dance off. This means trouble for one of the other two.

Gemma IMO has a better chance of avoiding the dance off than Mollie. The public have their favourites, but I am not sure there is that much between these two with the voters and, most importantly, I expect there to look like there is a difference between them in their dances. Mollie doesn't look good on either (I am expecting it to be her Waltz that she scores highest on), but she should be 3-5 points below Gemma on that, which is a significant handicap to overcome, should the favourites to go face off.

It isn't impossible that Gemma tops the leaderboard tonight or goes close to it. Then Mollie is in a world of trouble.

Mollie is 5/4 with the Red Shouty Man and Bet £3.65.

Recommend £32 (for roundness).

Click to see full-size image.

What a lovely recommendation, & not a response in sight, sorry Tal.

I hoped Tighty would be around, but I think he is AWOL today. Guess I should have tried to get on myself earlier.

I can't get on with Lads, & 365 just offered me.........£0.80.

I'm off out for the evening, not back until much later. If anyone can get Fred on, that'd be grand, if not, no worries.

Good luck Tal.

[arbboy]

Strictly bet for tonight's semi finals. Get a cup of something warm.

Next elimination:

https://www.oddschecker.com/tv/strictly-come-dancing/next-elimination

Two dances tonight. Both are dances they haven't yet done.

I have been looking at the training footage. My notes:

Debbie and Giovanni are dancing a Foxtrot to ‘Isn’t She Lovely’ by Stevie Wonder Debbie has been doing panto prep this week, so has been short on training time. The footage suggests Giovanni has given her an easier routine to remember. There are lots of pivots, which she's good at, but which, if there are too many, might annoy the public in particular. Foxtrot should be fluid and floaty. Her heels are a bit forced (obvious and pronounced; unnatural), which is something a teacher might do where their student is struggling to remember to go forward on the heel. This will be solid and probably get 34-38 from the judges.

and a Jive to ‘I’m So Excited’ by the Pointer Sisters This could be troublesome. Debbie doesn't have the energy of some of her rivals and this will be her most testing latin for that. But worse than that is the need to have straight legs. The best guide for this is the cha cha, which she did in week 4:



She got 27 for that, which was middle of the road. You'll note that her legs were bent the entire time. Straight legs give you the hip action, because you get natural hips by pushing your feet through the floor. In slower dances like rumba, you have time to do that, but it's harder in cha cha and jive. She is brilliant at some of the technical aspects of the dances (arms, pointing her feet, emotion) but her footwork isn't strong. So I expect this to be a little weak.

Joe and Katya are performing an American Smooth to ‘Have You Met Miss Jones?’ by Robbie Williams Not a powerful dancer with his slight stature, but his footwork is a world away from Debbie's. Honestly, he has hugely improved the last month and this looks impccable. Not seen the lifts, but I wonder whether this might be conservative and sweet. I am expecting 36+

and the Argentine Tango to ‘Human’ by Rag n’ Bone Man. A warning last week not to overdo the choreography, with Davood going out. Katya has concentrated more on the ganchos and ochos (the kicking and swivelling you see in this dance in hold). Smart move. Slightly odd song of course, but this should be strong. My guess would be this cements his place at the top of the leaderboard.

Gemma and Aljaž are dancing the Rumba to ‘Beneath Your Beautiful’ by Labrinth featuring Emeli Sandé Gemma has been sneaky good the last few weeks (perhaps Blackpool aside, though I thought she was undermarked). This rumba is slow and very wisely so. Gemma has the technique to do this and her arms look surprisingly good. Aljaž could have played a blinder here.

and a Tango to ‘My Sharona’ by The Knack (Royal Blood cover) Interesting article here: https://www.express.co.uk/showbiz/tv-radio/889857/Strictly-Come-Dancing-2017-Gemma-Atkinson-Aljaz-Skorjanec-eliminated-BBC  Stick to non league footy, Mr Alger! This tango is strong, sharp and technically good. Aljaž has taught her very well. She looks like a finalist to me. More later...

Mollie and AJ are Waltzing to ‘Angel’ by Sarah McLachlan Footwork is an area of weakness, as she doesn't generate much power in stepping out. Hard when you are small, but not an excuse.

and performing a Samba to ‘Whenever, Wherever’ by Shakira This is a problem. She isn't pressing into the floor, which means she's dancing too "prim and properly". This is samba: the dance of the carnival. No holding back allowed. It's exceptionally difficult to do such different dances - she has the worst draw for that - and I don't see much to tell me she'll be anywhere but in the bottom two with the judges.

Alexandra and Gorka are performing a Salsa to ‘Finally’ by Cece Peniston This isn't bad. She moves very well and there's lots gong on in a challenging routine. I do think Gorka puts too much in his routines, but that might be because he wants Alexandra not to think about what's next and then go wrong or hesitate. Sometimes, she looks a bit like she's "dancing by numbers" (as Craig would say...albeit not to her), rather than investing in the story, but maybe that's me. Safe routine, this. Judges sure to be kind.

 and a Viennese Waltz to Tina Arena’s version of R.E.M’s ‘Everybody Hurts' Good song choice, this.



It isn't as pronounced as the 1-2-3 of a traditional Viennese, but I have no doubt this will be a strong dance for her. She turns well. All I will say is she sometimes can be a bit skitty with her feet in closing her feet and she is pigeon toed, but these things are less obvious in this ballroom dance. If she dances well, this will be highly marked. I expect fawning judges talking about goosebumps and "courage in a difficult week". Tears to follow. I'll be shouting "overmarked!"

So, what does this all mean?

Best guess at order:

Joe
Alexandra
Gemma
Debbie
Mollie

So then to the public vote.

The most unpopular of these is Alexandra. So much press has been made of it this week, you wonder whether it's a concerted effort to get a producer favourite into the final. I can't see her being in the top 3 on votes, so she is in danger of being in the bottom two.

So, in my view, is Debbie. Don't see them both making it, but it wouldn't astonish me. Not enough value in the market however to be backing either of these to go; one only goes if they both end up in the dance off.

Gemma and Joe have become more popular with the public and Mollie has had a bounce since a run of dance offs a month ago. I don't see Mollie out of the bottom two, but I do see Gemma dodging it at least half of the time. Everyone wants to see Katya's showdance, so Joe is a lock for the final.

Dance off is highest scoring dance from earlier.

What we know about the judges for the dance off:
- if anyone goes up against Alexandra or Debbie, they are out
- if any other two go against each other, it will probably be on the dance (though don't leave it to Shirley in a close one if you are up against Mollie, as you are toast)
- Darcey will put her hands on her temples and exclaim it's so hard to choose.

Joe v Alexandra or Joe v Debbie is very unlikely, as Joe will score highly tonight. Even if he's third, he will get votes. It makes it quite likely one of Alexandra or Debbie is in the dance off. This means trouble for one of the other two.

Gemma IMO has a better chance of avoiding the dance off than Mollie. The public have their favourites, but I am not sure there is that much between these two with the voters and, most importantly, I expect there to look like there is a difference between them in their dances. Mollie doesn't look good on either (I am expecting it to be her Waltz that she scores highest on), but she should be 3-5 points below Gemma on that, which is a significant handicap to overcome, should the favourites to go face off.

It isn't impossible that Gemma tops the leaderboard tonight or goes close to it. Then Mollie is in a world of trouble.

Mollie is 5/4 with the Red Shouty Man and Bet £3.65.

Recommend £32 (for roundness).

Click to see full-size image.

What a lovely recommendation, & not a response in sight, sorry Tal.

I hoped Tighty would be around, but I think he is AWOL today. Guess I should have tried to get on myself earlier.

I can't get on with Lads, & 365 just offered me.........£0.80.

I'm off out for the evening, not back until much later. If anyone can get Fred on, that'd be grand, if not, no worries.

Good luck Tal.

I thught the same about how good a rec it was but i have never watched a SCD show in my life so pointless posting to comment!  GL Tal.

[booder]

I thught the same about how good a rec it was but i have never watched a SCD show in my life so pointless posting to comment!  GL Tal.

Ditto

[Marky147]

I'm banned with both, or I'd have done it.

[Marky147]

I'll lay it myself, for sweat purposes if nobody can get on.

I'll lop 40 off your slate if it wins.

[RED-DOG]

I thught the same about how good a rec it was but i have never watched a SCD show in my life so pointless posting to comment!  GL Tal.

Ditto

Ditto

[arbboy]

Crayford bags this morning not one t6 was placed first or second the whole meeting.  Definitely seemed to favour the inside dogs.  Looks like it might be the same this evening as t1 wins the first easily.  Worth keeping an eye on things on ch 468 on sky for tonight's meeting on RPGTV.

The 747 race will give us a great guide.  T1 should lead early and isn't quick enough to win this on all known form as others are much quicker and should out stay it. 

[Karabiner]

I thught the same about how good a rec it was but i have never watched a SCD show in my life so pointless posting to comment!  GL Tal.

Ditto

Ditto

Are you telling me that Mrs Red and the girls never watch strickly?

[arbboy]

T1 doesn't lead and beats the quickest dog in the race (t4) which was quick away always led until the run in.  Safe to say it is massively suiting the rails on that race for t1 to win from there.