Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Being a Bengals fan the one bet I've been confident on since the lines were released is the Lions covering the spread.

The Bengals are a mess right now. They're decimated 9n defence with their most experienced Corner backs out injured and 2 rookies likely starting at linebacker, although Burfict may be available again. But even then it's not great for them. Add to that the worst scoring offence in the league over the last month with the possibility(probability) of them giving McCarron or even Driskel some extended game time and it's not a great look for them.

The Lions are in the hunt for a playoff spot and dealt with the Bears fairly easily last week (the Bears beat Cinci easily the week before). Matthew Stafford has 290 yards or multiple TDs in 10 consecutive games, Marvin Jones returns to his former side in good form and golden taste should do well in the slot. The tight end Eric Ebron is having his usual late season run of form. It's running back where they struggle but even they could have some success against this Bengals team.

The only worry seems to be that they play up for Marvin Lewis on what is probably his last home game with the team. Or at least respond to the media criticism that they've given up on the season. (Steve fezzik really likes the Bengals ATS)

But to me (I am on it already) the Lions - 4.5 seems a solid bet (line opened at 3.5 went to 5 now back in to 4.5)

byeweekpicks.com which is a solid enough handicapper who posts on twitter likes Bengals +4

through it open to thoughts

[Cavey007]

Being a Bengals fan the one bet I've been confident on since the lines were released is the Lions covering the spread.

The Bengals are a mess right now. They're decimated 9n defence with their most experienced Corner backs out injured and 2 rookies likely starting at linebacker, although Burfict may be available again. But even then it's not great for them. Add to that the worst scoring offence in the league over the last month with the possibility(probability) of them giving McCarron or even Driskel some extended game time and it's not a great look for them.

The Lions are in the hunt for a playoff spot and dealt with the Bears fairly easily last week (the Bears beat Cinci easily the week before). Matthew Stafford has 290 yards or multiple TDs in 10 consecutive games, Marvin Jones returns to his former side in good form and golden taste should do well in the slot. The tight end Eric Ebron is having his usual late season run of form. It's running back where they struggle but even they could have some success against this Bengals team.

The only worry seems to be that they play up for Marvin Lewis on what is probably his last home game with the team. Or at least respond to the media criticism that they've given up on the season. (Steve fezzik really likes the Bengals ATS)

But to me (I am on it already) the Lions - 4.5 seems a solid bet (line opened at 3.5 went to 5 now back in to 4.5)

byeweekpicks.com which is a solid enough handicapper who posts on twitter likes Bengals +4

through it open to thoughts

Does seem a lot of the "sharps" like the Bengals this week which is strange to me. But they know their stuff. On my side of it the Lions are 7-0 against teams with a losing record this year (straight up)

[Stopsleyhatter]

Being a Bengals fan the one bet I've been confident on since the lines were released is the Lions covering the spread.

The Bengals are a mess right now. They're decimated 9n defence with their most experienced Corner backs out injured and 2 rookies likely starting at linebacker, although Burfict may be available again. But even then it's not great for them. Add to that the worst scoring offence in the league over the last month with the possibility(probability) of them giving McCarron or even Driskel some extended game time and it's not a great look for them.

The Lions are in the hunt for a playoff spot and dealt with the Bears fairly easily last week (the Bears beat Cinci easily the week before). Matthew Stafford has 290 yards or multiple TDs in 10 consecutive games, Marvin Jones returns to his former side in good form and golden taste should do well in the slot. The tight end Eric Ebron is having his usual late season run of form. It's running back where they struggle but even they could have some success against this Bengals team.

The only worry seems to be that they play up for Marvin Lewis on what is probably his last home game with the team. Or at least respond to the media criticism that they've given up on the season. (Steve fezzik really likes the Bengals ATS)

But to me (I am on it already) the Lions - 4.5 seems a solid bet (line opened at 3.5 went to 5 now back in to 4.5)

byeweekpicks.com which is a solid enough handicapper who posts on twitter likes Bengals +4

through it open to thoughts

Does seem a lot of the "sharps" like the Bengals this week which is strange to me. But they know their stuff. On my side of it the Lions are 7-0 against teams with a losing record this year (straight up)

Reckon it’s because our base defense is basically nickel and Stafford generally has to get it done in the air.Any Lions run game and the bengals get easily beaten.Burfict Mixon Kirkpatrick could all be out of concussion protocol.

[hhyftrftdr]

At the risk of upsetting our resident experts, I fancy one in the Man City v Bournemouth game.

City justify their price in the outright market, but Matchbook's Mark Stinchcombe has a nice contra-view on the total goals market:

https://insights.matchbook.com/mark-stinchcombe-im-liking-lots-christmas-goals-emirates/

BACKING BOURNEMOUTH TO HOLD BACK CITY

Bournemouth, on the other hand, have no respite. After being blown away 4-0 by Liverpool as they face the daunting prospect of a trip to Manchester to face a rampant City side. But have had a week to recover, and their results against the big guns haven’t been that bad and a goal line of 4.0 looks a bit too high.

2-1 Chelsea
0-4 Liverpool
1-0 Man Utd
0-1 Chelsea
1-0 Tottenham
3-0 Arsenal

I may be taking a bit of a chance here given the way the Citizen’s have wiped out all in front of them this season and stuck four past Tottenham and Swansea in their last two games. But you have to go back nine games prior to this before they’d scored more than three and this will be their 11th game in the last five weeks.

This game is part of a run that will see them play 17 games in nine weeks after their progression to the League Cup semi-finals.

Their next two fixtures over the festive period are both away, with a 12 o’clock kick-off at Crystal Palace on New Year’s Eve, and I can see Pep Guardiola managing the squad by resting and rotating.

I just don’t think this is necessarily going to be an all-out-attack all game. In Bournemouth’s previous meeting with Man City this season they only lost 2-1 with an xG of just 1.40.

City won this fixture 4-0 last season, but the xG in that was only 3.0 so I think at odds against there is enough value to warrant a bet


We can get 2.41 with Snickers Bet on under 3.5 goals.

Recommend £30 if we fancy.

thoughts?

I don't really see the value here? We basically rested almost everyone at Leicester (including all our key players) so I think we'll be more or less full strength despite the build up of fixtures on the horizon.

In previous seasons they haven't parked the bus and have been routinely tonked....Howe might indeed be a little cuter tomorrow, especially after the result against Liverpool, but I don't fancy them keeping us out for long with the way we are playing. If we were to score early then it could be another 4 or 5 goal drubbing without breaking sweat (sorry if this comes across as arrogant )

We might have a makeshift back 4 again tomorrow (Mangala broke his nose midweek) so there is a reasonable chance Bournemouth could also get on the scoresheet.

[hhyftrftdr]

''Delph 2/1 to make the England WC squad. In incred form, easily England's best left back at the moment, and is equally adept in midfield too.

2 things to consider; his injury record, and the chance of City signing a LB in January. The former is a concern, though he's had a great run of games for us this season so hopefully regular game time is keeping him fit and sharp. The latter doesn't bother me too much. January is a tough window to buy 'properly', and even if we did get extra cover in at LB it would then allow Delph to move into midfield when we want to rest Fernandinho. Mendy is recovering well but I don't think we'll see him in action this season, bar maybe the odd runout towards the end, so Delph isn't going to find himself suddenly benched anytime soon.

Competition is Rose and Bertrand (discounting Shaw for obvious reasons). Rose looked woeful yesterday but appreciate he's only just returned from a long layoff. Bertrand is good, but lacks Delph's versatility, and is playing in a pretty ordinary Saints team, whereas Delph is putting in eye catching performances in a team full of eye catching performances.

Think 2/1 is rather big for a player who will, barring injury, be on the plane in my opinion. Any thoughts?''

Posted that ^ a few days ago, it has since transpired that it seems highly unlikely City will be in the market for another left back in January (Pep is more than content with Delph, backed up by Zinchenko and Danilo)

I think it tips it over to being excellent value at 2/1.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/england/to-make-england-world-cup-2018-squad

[Ant040689]

If i had Betvictoor i would have a nibble on the above recommend from your confidence and explanation alone. I had nothing to add which is why i didn't input when i first saw btw.

On the Bournemouth holding back City. I don't like it and think it could be a massacre as defensively they generally don't park the bus and I think that will play into City's hands. They were very open against Palace at the back and proved so against Liverpool recently. They like to compensate for that defensive openness with a threatening attack but i think it could be close to void tomorrow and think the over and under at 4 goals difference is about right but again what do i know, and fair play to you for putting it up Tal i just don't like it myself. 2.41 is tempting though, so i am not sure you can go that far wrong, i just don't fancy it, and might have a bias against Bournemouth currently.

I think Palace are smidgeon of value tomorrow at 2.5 if you can get it tomorrow, i would put it at 2.4-2.35ish, but not many companies have that left.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/swansea-v-crystal-palace/winner

Benteke and Bony out which are considerations. Plus we have to alter the lineup to probably play Townsend/Zaha up top bringing with it limited wing threat and the potential annoyance of our flair players getting lost up top and historically we have struggled against teams that sit back with Palace's 4-4-2 and i expect Swansea to do so. But throw in tumult with Britton in charge and a potential for him to open Swansea up a bit more to play at us, with what so far has been an abject goal threat and we could have a field day. Again not entirely confident but with all things considered it is worth a nibble.

[sonour]

I'm no PL expert but this seems weak to me.

Why is everyone so desperate to take on the best club side in the world all of a sudden? Didn't they make ten changes in the week? Back to the usual here?

Howe seemed to have pretty much written off this game when he spoke in the week and he's unlikely to suddenly change tactics after Souness's comments about Bournemouth getting it wrong v the big six.

In other news, Tis Wonderful...timberrrrrrr. I've got £0 on, which is nice.

Tis Wonderful, thanks

[Tal]

At the risk of upsetting our resident experts, I fancy one in the Man City v Bournemouth game.

City justify their price in the outright market, but Matchbook's Mark Stinchcombe has a nice contra-view on the total goals market:

https://insights.matchbook.com/mark-stinchcombe-im-liking-lots-christmas-goals-emirates/

BACKING BOURNEMOUTH TO HOLD BACK CITY

Bournemouth, on the other hand, have no respite. After being blown away 4-0 by Liverpool as they face the daunting prospect of a trip to Manchester to face a rampant City side. But have had a week to recover, and their results against the big guns haven’t been that bad and a goal line of 4.0 looks a bit too high.

2-1 Chelsea
0-4 Liverpool
1-0 Man Utd
0-1 Chelsea
1-0 Tottenham
3-0 Arsenal

I may be taking a bit of a chance here given the way the Citizen’s have wiped out all in front of them this season and stuck four past Tottenham and Swansea in their last two games. But you have to go back nine games prior to this before they’d scored more than three and this will be their 11th game in the last five weeks.

This game is part of a run that will see them play 17 games in nine weeks after their progression to the League Cup semi-finals.

Their next two fixtures over the festive period are both away, with a 12 o’clock kick-off at Crystal Palace on New Year’s Eve, and I can see Pep Guardiola managing the squad by resting and rotating.

I just don’t think this is necessarily going to be an all-out-attack all game. In Bournemouth’s previous meeting with Man City this season they only lost 2-1 with an xG of just 1.40.

City won this fixture 4-0 last season, but the xG in that was only 3.0 so I think at odds against there is enough value to warrant a bet


We can get 2.41 with Snickers Bet on under 3.5 goals.

Recommend £30 if we fancy.

thoughts?

I don't really see the value here? We basically rested almost everyone at Leicester (including all our key players) so I think we'll be more or less full strength despite the build up of fixtures on the horizon.

In previous seasons they haven't parked the bus and have been routinely tonked....Howe might indeed be a little cuter tomorrow, especially after the result against Liverpool, but I don't fancy them keeping us out for long with the way we are playing. If we were to score early then it could be another 4 or 5 goal drubbing without breaking sweat (sorry if this comes across as arrogant )

We might have a makeshift back 4 again tomorrow (Mangala broke his nose midweek) so there is a reasonable chance Bournemouth could also get on the scoresheet.

At the risk of sounding like a poor man's arbboy, the value is in finding situations where the chances of it happening are better than the price suggests.

You've played Bouremouth twice in 2017, winning 2-0 and 2-1. The previous three games saw you win 5-1, 4-1 and 4-0. I wouldn't say "routinely tonked", particularly with the last game's xG being 1.4. Obviously the better team, running well and having fun.

You say if you score early you could rack up a big score. Sure. That's true any week. And you could concede. Or neither of those things could happen.

But how likely is it that there are 4 or more goals in this game this weekend? If it's less than 40% of the time, we are on the right side of the bet.

That's all this is. It's never about betting what I think will happen.

It might be that 1/8 on you to win is value. I don't have a strong view on that.  

Chompy doesn't agree with under 3.5 goals, which is fine. I think City are good but there comes a point where they get overbet and the lay becomes value. Here, I'm not convinced going over 3.5 goals is more than a flip, so 2.41 appeals.

That's all I'm saying.

[TightEnd]

29 players one booking (tomorrow) away from getting Christmas off.any appeal for booking markets?

http://www.sportbible.com/football/funny-the-premier-league-players-one-booking-away-from-getting-christmas-off-20171222

West Bromwich/stoke must be fertile territory? Big local derby, two teams bottom 4 .

[hhyftrftdr]

At the risk of upsetting our resident experts, I fancy one in the Man City v Bournemouth game.

City justify their price in the outright market, but Matchbook's Mark Stinchcombe has a nice contra-view on the total goals market:

https://insights.matchbook.com/mark-stinchcombe-im-liking-lots-christmas-goals-emirates/

BACKING BOURNEMOUTH TO HOLD BACK CITY

Bournemouth, on the other hand, have no respite. After being blown away 4-0 by Liverpool as they face the daunting prospect of a trip to Manchester to face a rampant City side. But have had a week to recover, and their results against the big guns haven’t been that bad and a goal line of 4.0 looks a bit too high.

2-1 Chelsea
0-4 Liverpool
1-0 Man Utd
0-1 Chelsea
1-0 Tottenham
3-0 Arsenal

I may be taking a bit of a chance here given the way the Citizen’s have wiped out all in front of them this season and stuck four past Tottenham and Swansea in their last two games. But you have to go back nine games prior to this before they’d scored more than three and this will be their 11th game in the last five weeks.

This game is part of a run that will see them play 17 games in nine weeks after their progression to the League Cup semi-finals.

Their next two fixtures over the festive period are both away, with a 12 o’clock kick-off at Crystal Palace on New Year’s Eve, and I can see Pep Guardiola managing the squad by resting and rotating.

I just don’t think this is necessarily going to be an all-out-attack all game. In Bournemouth’s previous meeting with Man City this season they only lost 2-1 with an xG of just 1.40.

City won this fixture 4-0 last season, but the xG in that was only 3.0 so I think at odds against there is enough value to warrant a bet


We can get 2.41 with Snickers Bet on under 3.5 goals.

Recommend £30 if we fancy.

thoughts?

I don't really see the value here? We basically rested almost everyone at Leicester (including all our key players) so I think we'll be more or less full strength despite the build up of fixtures on the horizon.

In previous seasons they haven't parked the bus and have been routinely tonked....Howe might indeed be a little cuter tomorrow, especially after the result against Liverpool, but I don't fancy them keeping us out for long with the way we are playing. If we were to score early then it could be another 4 or 5 goal drubbing without breaking sweat (sorry if this comes across as arrogant )

We might have a makeshift back 4 again tomorrow (Mangala broke his nose midweek) so there is a reasonable chance Bournemouth could also get on the scoresheet.

At the risk of sounding like a poor man's arbboy, the value is in finding situations where the chances of it happening are better than the price suggests.

You've played Bouremouth twice in 2017, winning 2-0 and 2-1. The previous three games saw you win 5-1, 4-1 and 4-0. I wouldn't say "routinely tonked", particularly with the last game's xG being 1.4. Obviously the better team, running well and having fun.

You say if you score early you could rack up a big score. Sure. That's true any week. And you could concede. Or neither of those things could happen.

But how likely is it that there are 4 or more goals in this game this weekend? If it's less than 40% of the time, we are on the right side of the bet.

That's all this is. It's never about betting what I think will happen.

It might be that 1/8 on you to win is value. I don't have a strong view on that.  

Chompy doesn't agree with under 3.5 goals, which is fine. I think City are good but there comes a point where they get overbet and the lay becomes value. Here, I'm not convinced going over 3.5 goals is more than a flip, so 2.41 appeals.

That's all I'm saying.

Yeah I get all that. Maybe logic instead of value woulda been a better choice of words from me.

Just seems 'strange' that you'd (the initial article) want to back the goal unders for the most free scoring team in the league, playing at home against a poor side who are in quite a slump presently. Throw in their injuries, and the fact their general style of play plays into our hands, the price seems way too skinny for my liking.

If it was that price for under 4.5 then it would be worth a look probably, otherwise I think its one to avoid. All my opinion of course

[Tal]

Ah yes, well I can explain that bit...

When everyone thinks something is going to happen, I want to know what price I can get on it not happening.

If I were a bookie and thought the public would be lumping on an event that would happen 60% of the time, I'd be offering 1/3 and taking as many thirty quids as I could from the people "buying" my tenner. Conversely, if there's an equivalent "no" market, I can't grim both sides of the market, so, assuming a competitive overround, it becomes likely that the other side of the bet is where the value is.

Sometimes the market still hasn't caught up with the punters, though. See that quite a bit in the NFL and quite possibly with MvG in the Worlds. This is why TalBet will never be operational: too much like hard work pricing something up accurately; much better to pick and choose as I fancy. Betfair went down the other day. I mean how on Earth would I know what price things were then?!

But basically, the more everyone fancies something to happen, the quicker I'll be considering the lay.

Can we agree you win 3-0, though, so we're both happy? I'll even let you choose the scorers (so long as they're Jesus or KdB).

[hhyftrftdr]

Ah yes, well I can explain that bit...

When everyone thinks something is going to happen, I want to know what price I can get on it not happening.

If I were a bookie and thought the public would be lumping on an event that would happen 60% of the time, I'd be offering 1/3 and taking as many thirty quids as I could from the people "buying" my tenner. Conversely, if there's an equivalent "no" market, I can't grim both sides of the market, so, assuming a competitive overround, it becomes likely that the other side of the bet is where the value is.

Sometimes the market still hasn't caught up with the punters, though. See that quite a bit in the NFL and quite possibly with MvG in the Worlds. This is why TalBet will never be operational: too much like hard work pricing something up accurately; much better to pick and choose as I fancy. Betfair went down the other day. I mean how on Earth would I know what price things were then?!

But basically, the more everyone fancies something to happen, the quicker I'll be considering the lay.

Can we agree you win 3-0, though, so we're both happy? I'll even let you choose the scorers (so long as they're Jesus or KdB).

Hell no! I have 40/1 on 100+ City goals, want at least 4

Can't knock you for looking at stuff that goes against the grain, I just think you might be looking at the wrong crop tomorrow.

[RickBFA]

29 players one booking (tomorrow) away from getting Christmas off.any appeal for booking markets?

http://www.sportbible.com/football/funny-the-premier-league-players-one-booking-away-from-getting-christmas-off-20171222

West Bromwich/stoke must be fertile territory? Big local derby, two teams bottom 4 .

Over 3 West Brom bookings at 10/3 with Billy looks a nice bet?

[Longines]

Over 3 West Brom bookings at 10/3 with Billy looks a nice bet?

They're averaging 3.0 in the last 5 away, 2.45 in the last 10.

[RickBFA]

Over 3 West Brom bookings at 10/3 with Billy looks a nice bet?

They're averaging 3.0 in the last 5 away, 2.45 in the last 10.

With the other factors Tighty mentioned, those stats make it sounds like a bet to me.