Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

A 100/1 shot has placed in the Premier League's Top Goalscorer market in 11 of the past 17 seasons dating back to 2002/03.

Candidates please.

[hhyftrftdr]

A 100/1 shot has placed in the Premier League's Top Goalscorer market in 11 of the past 17 seasons dating back to 2002/03.

Candidates please.

Richarlison? 100/1
Zaha? (if he gets his move....200/1!)
Dele Alli? 200/1

[Longines]

Defoe? Is he just on loan at Rangers?

EDIT: I *completely* misunderstood the question....

[Chompy]

Calvert-Lewin 100-1 or Zaha 125-1 for me.

[hhyftrftdr]

Calvert-Lewin 100-1 or Zaha 125-1 for me.

Zaha has come right down this afternoon, think was beteveryday that had him at 200s when I looked earlier. Which I did think was overly generous.
125s still sticks out like a sore thumb, I think that is where my e/w punt would go and then just pray he gets his move.

Edit- they've also snipped Alli from 200s to 150/1.
Double edit - And Richarlison trimmed down to 66/1 ffs.

[Juperjiper]

12 goals in the premier league for Newcastle last season
Big money move to Leicester, more attacking side bla bla
150/1? Perez

[hhyftrftdr]

Think Perez could be a decent shout, but the concern would be sharing goals/playing time with Vardy. Perhaps Tighty can shed some light on the situation?

Joshua King at 150/1.

Possible wildcard but Mahrez is out to 100/1. Question mark over playing time but I'm expecting much better things from him this season now he has a year under Pep under his belt.

[TightEnd]

Over a 38 game season, assuming no injuries, Perez can be expected to play anywhere in the front four in a 4-2-3-1 and start ahead of Vardy in rotation/suspension (normally a couple a season for JV) scenarios only, up top. Vardy hasn't been supplanted as lone striker for over 4 years and shows no sign of slowing down

Maddison and Tielemans in behind will supply a lot and i would think he should beat 12 goals in a team that should be 7th-10th, 6th is a shot if one of Chelsea etc has a down year

Vardy will be on pens though

[hhyftrftdr]

Firminho is a weird one at 33/1.

You'd think the striker leading the line at one of the most attacking clubs in the league would be amongst the favourites for the golden boot, with his 'wingmen' Salah and Mane in that second bracket for the award. Instead the reality is opposite.

It feels like he should be value in theory, but the cold hard facts are he's never managed more than 15 goals a season in 4 years at Liverpool, and each year he has played 30+ games.
He's 28 soon so right in his prime, and doesn't really have any stiff competition for his place in the side so unlikely to miss many games in favour of someone else.

Need 20 goals to be in with a shout of a top 4 finish, is this the season he plunders more goals?
Think I'd want 40/1 before I'd consider backing him.

[TightEnd]

is Origi not a threat to get 15-20 games starting this season as it is? (ie Firmino's price might have a hidden downside)

11 starts last season

Lots of big game Cl form at the end of last season. Only need a Firmino injury to be a fraction of his price

Or he would be if he was quoted....

[TightEnd]

I will offer up Felipe Anderson 250-1

9 last season

Second season in the top flight, last season West Ham only got going after the first month (adjustment to Pellegrini)

played 36 last season. Is 15 goals not a shout this?

[hhyftrftdr]

is Origi not a threat to get 15-20 games starting this season as it is? (ie Firmino's price might have a hidden downside)

11 starts last season

Lots of big game Cl form at the end of last season. Only need a Firmino injury to be a fraction of his price

Or he would be if he was quoted....

He started 4 games in the league last season. I'd be amazed if he got to anywhere near 15 starts in 19/20.

[TightEnd]

is Origi not a threat to get 15-20 games starting this season as it is? (ie Firmino's price might have a hidden downside)

11 starts last season

Lots of big game Cl form at the end of last season. Only need a Firmino injury to be a fraction of his price

Or he would be if he was quoted....

He started 4 games in the league last season. I'd be amazed if he got to anywhere near 15 starts in 19/20.

my mistake 11 appearances 4 starts

whats the knock on him then? scores a lot in Euro competitions.

[hhyftrftdr]

is Origi not a threat to get 15-20 games starting this season as it is? (ie Firmino's price might have a hidden downside)

11 starts last season

Lots of big game Cl form at the end of last season. Only need a Firmino injury to be a fraction of his price

Or he would be if he was quoted....

He started 4 games in the league last season. I'd be amazed if he got to anywhere near 15 starts in 19/20.

my mistake 11 appearances 4 starts

whats the knock on him then? scores a lot in Euro competitions.

I'm probably the wrong person to talk or speculate about him, but it can't be easy to break into that Salah - Firminho - Mane front 3, especially when he's essentially in direct competition with Firminho to lead the line. They obv have a great understanding between them and lots of experience, whereas Origi is a bit younger and greener.

His record in Europe isn't that great either; he's scored important goals for them but 3 in 8 appearances last season isn't much to shout about.

He seems destined to be one of these players that is too good to let go, but probably not good enough to cement a long term place in the team. If Liverpool sold Firminho you just know they would sign a replacement and Origi is back to square 1.

Not a direct comparison but I certainly see similarities to the Gabriel Jesus situation with us; don't get me wrong, I think Jesus is significantly better than Origi, but both are talented players behind established forwards vying for one spot. The benefit for Jesus is that Aguero maybe only has a year or 2 left at City, whereas Firminho could be at Liverpool for another 4/5 years easy.

[arbboy]

I thnk previous 15 years stats are pretty much irrelevant to this market in a season where the top 2 are expected to score more goals (and win more points) than any top two in history just like last season.   Teams have never been going off routinely in the last 15 years at 1/10 or shorter at home and 1/4 or 1/5 away from home.   This obviously has a direct correlation on goals scored.  Plus the third best team have England's best goalscorer who, fitness allowing, should score 20+ on the bridle.  Even allowing for the place only portion of the bet being profitable the chance of a total rag winning this outright seems so small.  

I get the squad rotation argument of the top teams but i think a rag having any chance in this market in the current climate has never been more unlikely in the sample shown.   Obviously not impossible.   Also VAR will suit big pen teams which are obviously going to be the big teams way more than the small teams which is another negative and the sample doesn't include this.