Tips for Tikay

[Chompy]

http://www.bettingexchangeacademy.com/

[Horneris]

Newcastle are too short

[Tonji]

A fine fighting ride from Rodriguez just 60 seconds down from Contador. Better than expected. Leads overall by 1 second  

Game on.

[TightEnd]

Anyone ever typed out a long recommend with pictures, justification and and blather and then deleted tab by mistake?

Yes, that.

Strops off in a huff.

[AceHighSuited]

Anyone ever typed out a long recommend with pictures, justification and and blather and then deleted tab by mistake?

Yes, that.

Strops off in a huff.

Stick up the bet I am on blind.

[TightEnd]

After a month long hiatus in the F1 season, it resumes this weekend at Spa

The thread probably treats this prospect with trepidation. It has yet to have a winning bet in F1

The reasons for this, beyond bad tipping, are the rather random nature of F1 this season with several competitive teams and the unpredictability of tyre wear from race to race, which has resulted in different teams going through periods of supremacy

I love Spa. As a teenager my uncle took me to my first Grand Prix, and we stood at the bottom of the valley of Eau rouge as cars (back then, Prost, Senna, Mansell, Piquet) took it flat out through the kink and up the hill



As for a winner this weekend

Hamilton 5/2
Alonso 4/1
Raikkonen 5/1

The bet here is Raikkonen.

Why?

- Raikkonen goes well here. He has won here four times before. He loves the track
- Renault's main strength, beyond competitive pace, is that it is very lenient on tyres. Race after race this allows them tactical flexibility that sees them go strong at the end of races, do fewer pit stops on occasion, and be charging when others are protecting tyres
- But for the nature of the Hungaroring track, he would have won the last race. The straights were too short for DRS and KERS to allow overtaking, yet he harried Hamilton to the win for the back half of the race
- The Renault is consistent. Raikkonen was third the race before that and lots of podiums before that
- Spa is a long track and a hard race. Fast straights, flat out corners. Hard on tyres. Leniency on tyres gives Renault every chance

All that is missing is a win. I think they will win a race this year, and it could be this weekend

On the downside the Renault does not qualify too well, highest this season is 3rd, but Spa does allow for overtaking. This is not the barrier that overtaking at Monaco, Valencia or Hungary would represent

As ever with F1, there are variables than can throw any bet off course. We have seen Hamilton get a puncture on the second lap and his team mate go on to podium and that was frustrating.

All sorts of things can happen from rain to accidents to driver error to mechanical fault. I am not selling this well

This therefore is a modest recommendation, £15 Raikkonen to win in Belgium at 5-1

Go Kimi, break our duck (if selected) Try not to look as surprised as this when you win

[horseplayer]

i no very little about f1

you state that you dont expect him to qualify well surely then a bigger price will be available after qualifying?

[TightEnd]

i no very little about f1

you state that you dont expect him to qualify well surely then a bigger price will be available after qualifying?

top 3 rows is the expectation with Hamilton, 2 redbulls, Alonso and Grosjean (button being a poor qualifier)

that's in the price, shouldn't affect it either way

[tikay]

Last two races @ Kempton tomorrow, Paddy Wankers have overpriced the jolly in each race imo.

Mizwaaj @ 11/4 and Storm King 7/2.

Gonna suggest a filthy £25 each-way double @ those prices.

Thanks Mr Fifteen to One.

We would have done these as two singles, £25 each, but with the sheer volume of Fred activity yesterday, I missed them, sorry.

Current prices - proving your case - are 6/4 & 3/1, so too late now, I would suggest?

Which also neatly proves today's discussion points on horse racing & prices, too.

One result of today's debate is that we MAY be doing more horse racing bets soon, so dont be doing your trademark flounce on me, or I'll grass you up to Car Park Henderson, who, it seems to me, owns you in these exchanges.

This has now changed a little. The first one is still only 13/8, so way too late to back, but I can now get 7/2 about the second one, Storm King.

I'll back that as a single nearer the time unless anyone suggests otherwise. We have an hour or more yet to decide. 

One more question - you suggested (as a Double) each way, but as a single @ 7/2, it has to be win only, I assume?

[tikay]

Newcastle are too short

Thanks Brent.

Can you explain your reasoning for that, please? What price do you make them?

One fact missing from Fraser's summary is that Newcastle have a "midweek" - Thursday - Champions League game, & I know that this often affects the prices, & chances, of the Team involved.  It is at home, to be fair, & the Villa game is not until Sunday.

[Tal]

Tighty, I've heard Renault have double DRS this weekend. That would be massive round Spa if it's true.

[TightEnd]

Tighty, I've heard Renault have double DRS this weekend. That would be massive round Spa if it's true.

Double DRS is good for a watchable race full stop. it would be available to every team though

[tikay]

After a month long hiatus in the F1 season, it resumes this weekend at Spa

The thread probably treats this prospect with trepidation. It has yet to have a winning bet in F1

The reasons for this, beyond bad tipping, are the rather random nature of F1 this season with several competitive teams and the unpredictability of tyre wear from race to race, which has resulted in different teams going through periods of supremacy

I love Spa. As a teenager my uncle took me to my first Grand Prix, and we stood at the bottom of the valley of Eau rouge as cars (back then, Prost, Senna, Mansell, Piquet) took it flat out through the kink and up the hill



As for a winner this weekend

Hamilton 5/2
Alonso 4/1
Raikkonen 5/1

The bet here is Raikkonen.

Why?

- Raikkonen goes well here. He has won here four times before. He loves the track
- Renault's main strength, beyond competitive pace, is that it is very lenient on tyres. Race after race this allows them tactical flexibility that sees them go strong at the end of races, do fewer pit stops on occasion, and be charging when others are protecting tyres
- But for the nature of the Hungaroring track, he would have won the last race. The straights were too short for DRS and KERS to allow overtaking, yet he harried Hamilton to the win for the back half of the race
- The Renault is consistent. Raikkonen was third the race before that and lots of podiums before that
- Spa is a long track and a hard race. Fast straights, flat out corners. Hard on tyres. Leniency on tyres gives Renault every chance

All that is missing is a win. I think they will win a race this year, and it could be this weekend

On the downside the Renault does not qualify too well, highest this season is 3rd, but Spa does allow for overtaking. This is not the barrier that overtaking at Monaco, Valencia or Hungary would represent

As ever with F1, there are variables than can throw any bet off course. We have seen Hamilton get a puncture on the second lap and his team mate go on to podium and that was frustrating.

All sorts of things can happen from rain to accidents to driver error to mechanical fault. I am not selling this well

This therefore is a modest recommendation, £15 Raikkonen to win in Belgium at 5-1

Go Kimi, break our duck (if selected) Try not to look as surprised as this when you win

Given you know Fred's terrible record in F1, & you are a Super-Nit, this must be like Tal betting that Arsenal will beat Spurs. Painful, but sensible.

I think we can manage a nitty £15 @ those odds. Break our duck!

Oh, & thank you for not using that dreadful cliche, "a cheeky" £15.....Ugh.

Thanks Rich.

We have £15 @ 5/1 with Betfred, Raikkonen to win the Belgian Grand Prix.

Incidentally, we must share a love for Spa Francorchamps. My early sporting heroes were the likes of Jack Brabham, Jogn Surtees, Jin Clark (obv), & as a young man, I thrilled to the sight of those guys flat through Eau Rouge, which then, if not now, was THE scariest section of race track on earth.  There was no TV coverage then, but MSN, Autocar etc always published THE most wonderful photos from Spa.

ON


Formula 1 - Belgian GP
Race Winner
 Raikkonen, Kimi 5/1  
Total stake £ 15.00
Estimated return £ 90.00

Full stake £ 15.00
Full estimated return £ 90.00

PS - Note how track & spectator safety has changed in the last 40 or 50 years.......Armco? What Armco?

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[Chompy]

Last two races @ Kempton tomorrow, Paddy Wankers have overpriced the jolly in each race imo.

Mizwaaj @ 11/4 and Storm King 7/2.

Gonna suggest a filthy £25 each-way double @ those prices.

Thanks Mr Fifteen to One.

We would have done these as two singles, £25 each, but with the sheer volume of Fred activity yesterday, I missed them, sorry.

Current prices - proving your case - are 6/4 & 3/1, so too late now, I would suggest?

Which also neatly proves today's discussion points on horse racing & prices, too.

One result of today's debate is that we MAY be doing more horse racing bets soon, so dont be doing your trademark flounce on me, or I'll grass you up to Car Park Henderson, who, it seems to me, owns you in these exchanges.

This has now changed a little. The first one is still only 13/8, so way too late to back, but I can now get 7/2 about the second one, Storm King.

I'll back that as a single nearer the time unless anyone suggests otherwise. We have an hour or more yet to decide. 

One more question - you suggested (as a Double) each way, but as a single @ 7/2, it has to be win only, I assume?

Swerve.

Each-way double down unless Paddies are paying first nine places on Mizwaaj.

[redsimon]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00z8v18

Not currently scheduled for a rerun but this was an amazing insight into 1960's and 1970's Grand Prix racing "Grand Prix: The Killer Years"