Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Stopped offering my advice as  generally too much aggro on here, however for the good of the greater cause this  this bet stands out as great value to me

Wigan have now got their best 11 players fit and this was evident v Norwich last week

They are their fighting for their premiership survival whereas WBA are safe ...so Wigan to beat WBA  @ 11 -10  draw no bet at WilliamHills

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/wigan-v-west-brom/draw-no-bet

My first contribution to this thread so £100 Tony

1-1, so we get our £100 back, yeah?

More like that please Fraser, keep them coming.

[horseplayer]

sorry that was very poor

feel pretty horrible to be honest that people have lost a lot of money on that

must do better

[tikay]

sorry that was very poor

feel pretty horrible to be honest that people have lost a lot of money on that

must do better

None of that on this thread please, we don't want "sorry", except from Chompy, obv.

It's all good.

Send more money.

[MereNovice]

After today's matches:


Pos    Team    P    GD    Pts
18    Bradford    36    -4    39
19    Northampton    36    -20    37
20    Barnet    36    -23    37
21    Macclesfield    37    -13    35
22    Plymouth    37    -17    35
23    Hereford    37    -20    35
24    Dag & Red    37    -28    34

[tikay]

Think the Barnet bet looks a little better now. They lost, & Plymouth & D&R both won.

Which is good for us. I think.

[Marky147]

Think the Barnet bet looks a little better now. They lost, & Plymouth & D&R both won.

Which is good for us. I think.

Big game Tuesday when  Barnet  play Dag & Redbridge at home

[tikay]

Tx Vince. Still a sweat.

I was up late today, & flat to the boards up here in Walsall, (4 of my players made Day 2, 3 still in), so again, I missed the Daily Update, thats 3 days in a row now.

Be a bit of a nigtmare catching up, but I'll sort it tomorrow, & we'll be back on track. Then MereGeek can correct my numbers.

[horseplayer]

fwiw i have also backed pugnacity in the 5.20 newcastle feel it is a fair bit overpriced (about 22-1 at moment) trainer in form ground to soft last time on re appearance and 7lbs claimer look both good value for it and brings horse down to similar mark as when winning this time last year...

nowere near as strong as the one just now which isnt saying much

[The Camel]

Think the Barnet bet looks a little better now. They lost, & Plymouth & D&R both won.

Which is good for us. I think.

Big game Tuesday when  Barnet  play Dag & Redbridge at home

Followed by Macclesfield away.

Fail towin either of those and Barnet are in deep doo doo.

Their next four games:

Home to Torquay (currently 2nd)
Home to Swindon (top)
Away to Cheltenham (5th)
Home to Crawley (6th)

Yum yum.

[tikay]

fwiw i have also backed pugnacity in the 5.20 newcastle feel it is a fair bit overpriced (about 22-1 at moment) trainer in form ground to soft last time on re appearance and 7lbs claimer look both good value for it and brings horse down to similar mark as when winning this time last year...

nowere near as strong as the one just now which isnt saying much

So have I.

And NO SORRIES, please.

(And no shouting at me, Camel - we need to get horseplayer a winner).

This is the getting out stakes. Or the do our bollox stakes. I don't have time to go price-hunting right now, & I seem to have a ton of money in Bet Victor. Speed ftw.


ON, £10 EW

You have successfully placed 1 bet(s)

Total possible returns 270.00

BET RECEIPT Single Selections
NEWCASTLE 17:20
PUGNACITY (EW)
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  20/1
Stake:  20.00
Possible Return:  270.00

[tikay]

Think the Barnet bet looks a little better now. They lost, & Plymouth & D&R both won.

Which is good for us. I think.

Big game Tuesday when  Barnet  play Dag & Redbridge at home

Followed by Macclesfield away.

Fail towin either of those and Barnet are in deep doo doo.

Their next four games:

Home to Torquay (currently 2nd)
Home to Swindon (top)
Away to Cheltenham (5th)
Home to Crawley (6th)

Yum yum.

Worth investing a little more, then?

[bobby1]

You are looking at the relative probabilities of 1 and 2, ignoring the draw completely. If two teams are both the same % to win, the DNB price is evens both sides. If one side is 50% to win and the other 30%, you get 5/8 on the first, 8/3 on the other.

The easiest way to convert match prices into draw no bet or level ball prices to give you two way tradeable  prices as a layer is as follows using today's Fulham v Swansea game.

match prices on Betfair to about 100.2%
Fulham 1.81
Draw 3.85
Swansea 5.3

Take 1 point off the draw price to give you 2.85, times that by the price of the home team, which is 1.81, then divide that by the full draw price , which is 3.85.

Gives you 1.34 ish Fulham draw no bet

Using the draw minus 1 point price of 2.85, times the Swansea price of 5.3 divided by the full draw price of 3.85.

Gives you a price of 3.92 Swansea draw no bet. Obviously as a layer you would take a little off those to make money, which leads to the betfair price in the draw no bet market of

1.33 Fulham draw no bet
3.9 Swansea draw no bet

To get bang on 100% book you should break down the BF match price into a 100% book but to be honest it is so near anyway it doesn't matter.

Using that method at the Wigan price on the off gives Fraser's bet as 2.04 draw no bet, so 2.1 was value.


cheers

Thanks for posting this I'll use it as a guide. I'm on Swansea at 11/4 DNB

no probs mate and well done with the Swansea bet.

[The Camel]

Think the Barnet bet looks a little better now. They lost, & Plymouth & D&R both won.

Which is good for us. I think.

Big game Tuesday when  Barnet  play Dag & Redbridge at home

Followed by Macclesfield away.

Fail towin either of those and Barnet are in deep doo doo.

Their next four games:

Home to Torquay (currently 2nd)
Home to Swindon (top)
Away to Cheltenham (5th)
Home to Crawley (6th)

Yum yum.

Worth investing a little more, then?

Depends on the price obv.

I would play now at 5/1. Maybe 9/2

Doubt it will be available.

If it isn't, wait and see what happens next two games. Dagenham are shocking too, but they won today, so hopefully will be going into the game with a little confidence.

Come on you Daggers!

[Royal Flush]

sorry that was very poor

feel pretty horrible to be honest that people have lost a lot of money on that

must do better

It's all good mate, was found money

Just tilt it went off so short and now VC will think i'm a shark given i was already up on them!

[c4ught]

Think the Barnet bet looks a little better now. They lost, & Plymouth & D&R both won.

Which is good for us. I think.

Big game Tuesday when  Barnet  play Dag & Redbridge at home

Followed by Macclesfield away.

Fail towin either of those and Barnet are in deep doo doo.

Their next four games:

Home to Torquay (currently 2nd)
Home to Swindon (top)
Away to Cheltenham (5th)
Home to Crawley (6th)

Yum yum.

Worth investing a little more, then?

Depends on the price obv.

I would play now at 5/1. Maybe 9/2

Doubt it will be available.

If it isn't, wait and see what happens next two games. Dagenham are shocking too, but they won today, so hopefully will be going into the game with a little confidence.

Come on you Daggers!

11/2 available at betvictor btw.