Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Backed Huddersfeild at half time at 6/5.

Really surprised they aren't odds on.

Camel rakes yet another pot in.

[bobby1]

Backed Huddersfeild at half time at 6/5.

Really surprised they aren't odds on.

They are now.......

By the end of the season I have a feeling Jordan Rhodes is going to regret joining Blackburn instead of staying put if he really wants Premier League football.

Ive seen them twice in 5 days now and they were very good in both games. Oliver Norwood looks a real steal in midfield.

[TightEnd]

Win win win here for pennies on BTS, Hudd and Overs


Beckford currently training with the U21s due to lack of effort

He'll be on loan with HTAFC shortly

The way they play, I think he'll be prolific for them when motivated, as he will be

[tikay]

Tonight the Seattle Seahawks play the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football

Lets a start with a quote

"Your decision to lock out officials with more than 1,500 years of collective NFL experience has led to a deterioration of order, safety and integrity. This affirmative decision has not only resulted in poor calls, missed calls and bad game management, but the combination of those deficiencies will only continue to jeopardize player health and safety and the integrity of the game that has taken decades to build.''

From a NFL Players Association Executive Board letter to the NFL's 32 owners on Thursday, sharply critical of the league's continued lockout of the 120 regular game officials.

What's that got to do with the price of bananas?

Well, in Week 2 of the NFL season we saw a two standard deviation event. For statisticians, the equivalent of rocking up to a poker table and finding yourself seated next to Kelly Brook in comely mood.

What was that two standard deviation event? Well its to do with Home field advantage (HFA)

In week 1 the average HFA was 3.2 net points, and in week 2 it was 8.7 net points. As I write, Week 3's average is -1.0 net points through 15 games.

Week 1 was close to the long term trend of a 2.5 net point advantage for the home team, and Week 3 tilted slightly toward the visitors. But week 2 showed a large advantage for home teams.

We know there is week-to-week variance in net scores for home teams, but how far from ordinary is 8.7 net points for the home team in a single week?

Since 2000 the standard deviation for weekly average HFA is 4.0 points, and the average is 2.5 points as above, which means week 2's 8.7 is over 2 standard deviations from the mean (p=0.40)

Why might this be?

Well one reason being postulated is that the inexperienced referees are very susceptible to home crowds, and thus inferring a greater home advantage than normal.

Obviously if so, this is a small sample size

Intuitively though, I'm onside. Watching back the games, there are a lot of bad calls, and more often than not they go in the home teams favour.

On we go then

Seattle. QWest field. One of the noisiest home atmospheres where the crowd is known as the "12th man"

"The 12th man is Seattle is highly prized by the Seattle Seahawks organization. The Seahawks have actually retired the number 12 in honor of Seahawks fans and in the north endzone before each game a #12 flag celebrating the twelfth man is raised prior to kickoff. Seahawks fans come dressed in Seahawks colors, they invoke the wrath of the 12th man for every defensive series"

It's loud

The referees are inexperienced

and finally, the team is improving. (Week 2 Seattle 27 Dallas 7. Home advantage in an "even" game. Dallas Cowboys through 3 games have the number one ranked defense in football in several categories. Week 1 Arizona 20, Seattle 16, Arizona now unbeaten at 3-0)

Several years of poor performance has given them change to rebuild, especially on defense. They have a premier running back too in Marshawn Lynch.

I looked at playing the unders, because the combination of that Seattle defence, and a rookie Seattle QB against the Green Bay pass rush screamed unders to me. Except that the spread is 44.5, which is low. Its priced in

So instead we are given an opportunity

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/green-bay-packers-at-seattle-seahawks/winner

Seattle 17/10 BoyleSports is a mis-price of this team in this stadium with these referees and, most importantly the strengths of Seattle against Green Bay

I have it as an even money game, the spread is +/-3.

Here's a reasonable prediction of the game

http://www.athlonsports.com/nfl/green-bay-packers-vs-seattle-seahawks-preview-and-prediction

I suggest £50 Seattle to win (outright) BoyleSports 17/10. Hopefully if agreed we are going to take on a favourite, a favourite that Joe Punter loves, but in conditions the favourite will not love.

Bugger. He who hesitates is lost. That Boylesports 17/10 "mis-price" is now 7/5, in line with most books.

The best current price seems to be 31/20 with Ladbrokes. 

Still fancy it, Rich?

If so, we would have a little less, as the value has devalued & all that.

Up to you, Rich, but I'm off to bed in 15 mins, so no hesitating. You know what happens when we hesitate......

[TightEnd]

£35 at 31/20 then

kukushkin would have you do the unders bet instead

Up to you

[tikay]

I think the unders are of interest in Seattle. I think GB are going to make a season long commitment to run the ball as they blame their terrible defensive seasons on not controlling the clock/giving the defence adequate rest. It seems from what McCarthy has being saying preseason he is determined to get to the playoffs with a more balanced offence, even if it means having to work harder in regular season games. I don´t think the line has fully adjusted and we should be trying to take advantage. Circa 20 carries again this week for Benson is roughly what I expect, Seattle will without doubt being running it lots. Only 33 points in the GB game last week with 52 the week before although that was partly due to a punt return that clearly should have come back for a hold. Seattle´s first 2 games 36 points and 34. These points include a few special teams/defensive TD´s as well. Combined average over what is obviously a tiny sample 38.75 ppg.
Evens under 45.5 at Ladbrokes looks a very reasonable bet to me.

Thanks Mr Kuku.

I have a big problem here, in that I have zero understanding or knowledge of NFL, so have to go by the quality & strength of the recommend, & knowledge of the bet owner. An impossible task, really.

We are going to do this, but only for a fun £20, hope that is OK with you, as you never nominated a preferred stake.

Hope it wins for you - & us.

Thanks.

We have a super-nitty £20 @ Evens with Ladbrokes, UNDER 45.5.

ON

Selectionevens - Under

EventGreen Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks NFL

MarketTotal points
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - Under
1 line at £20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential Return: £40.00
Time: 24/09/12 22:09
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000141

[The Camel]

10/1 Huddersfield for promotion with Coral and Spoilsports.

Worth £20 of anyone's money imo.

[tikay]

£35 at 31/20 then

kukushkin would have you do the unders bet instead

Up to you

I've had £20 on Kuku's bet, & unless I am misreading it (2/7, hurry hurry) I can't quite see why we cannot do both.

Tell you what, I'll do your £35 worth now, then you can explain where I went wrong afterwards........

We may end up losing the whole £55, if so, I'm sure I'll hear about it in the morning.

[TightEnd]

£35 at 31/20 then

kukushkin would have you do the unders bet instead

Up to you

I've had £20 on Kuku's bet, & unless I am misreading it (2/7, hurry hurry) I can't quite see why we cannot do both.

Tell you what, I'll do your £35 worth now, then you can explain where I went wrong afterwards........

We may end up losing the whole £55, if so, I'm sure I'll hear about it in the morning.

they are not contingent, so both is fine

This once only, you are in the clear.

This now means I have to try and stay awake through a 12-9 Field goal fest?!?!

[The Camel]

£35 at 31/20 then

kukushkin would have you do the unders bet instead

Up to you

I've had £20 on Kuku's bet, & unless I am misreading it (2/7, hurry hurry) I can't quite see why we cannot do both.

Tell you what, I'll do your £35 worth now, then you can explain where I went wrong afterwards........

We may end up losing the whole £55, if so, I'm sure I'll hear about it in the morning.

they are not contingent, so both is fine

This once only, you are in the clear.

This now means I have to try and stay awake through a 12-9 Field goal fest?!?!

GL with that project.

Remind me, how many games in a row has Rodgers thrown a td pass?

[TightEnd]

Many

Under 45.5 points will be an interesting sweat.

24-21!

[tikay]

£35 at 31/20 then

kukushkin would have you do the unders bet instead

Up to you

£35 @ 31/20 (such an untidy sum, but I'm too tired to think straight, what happened to nice round numbers?), with Ladbrokes, Seattle thingies.

ON


Single (To win) 1 £35.00  Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks Money Line  Seattle Seahawks  31/20 

[tikay]

Many

Under 45.5 points will be an interesting sweat.

24-21!

Be nice to our Kuku chap, keep the faith!

Kuku - come in here & sort these boys out for me, right?

[tikay]

10/1 Huddersfield for promotion with Coral and Spoilsports.

Worth £20 of anyone's money imo.

Tried to get on with Boylesports, clicked "Place Bet" & got this message......


Sorry, but selection Huddersfield in market To Be Promoted is not available for betting

Sorry, the current operation cannot continue

It does not explain what it IS available for..........

[kukushkin88]

Many

Under 45.5 points will be an interesting sweat.

24-21!

Be nice to our Kuku chap, keep the faith!

Kuku - come in here & sort these boys out for me, right?

If Keith/Tighty disagreee it doesn´t do much for confidence but I´ve been betting NFL profitably for a number of years and the more I look at the unders the more I like it. I think the reference was more to 12-9 all field goals than the unders?