Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Bournemouth against Walsall, League One

I have a friend who is a Walsall season ticket holder, who alerted this to me this morning, and is currently coach bound with a load of Saddlers to the South Coast. He had to book in advance to get on the supporters coach. He tells me this is the first time in five years that his away coach is full.  Relevance? Walsall are an improving outfit, attracting casual supporters again

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/bournemouth-v-walsall/winner

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/tables


Bournemouth have won one of their first 8, and none at home

Walsall have won 2 and drawn 1 of 4 away (and have lost only 2 of 8, overall), and are ten places above Bournemouth in the table

Walsall price

4/1

yes, that's 4/1


Unless anyone can explain to me why, recommend a surreptitious, almost covert, nibble on £20 Walsall to win at 4/1

bournemouth have bought in david james this week

probably a good thing, personally i think walsall will struggle to maintain there start

THE David James? 42 years old, was with Bristol City last season?

Good grief.

You may well be right about Walsall being a bit ahead of themselves, but 4/1 looks a bit big to my untrained eye.

[Doobs]

The biggest was £110 for over 4.5 halved matches in the Ryder Cup, which was later shown to be mathematically unsound,  

It wasn't shown to be unsound , just shown not to be provably sound.        

If we take the price of 6/1 for a draw.

There are28 games.

Total stake £110.

To maintain the same risk £110/28 = individual stake per game of £3.93.

If the over 4.5 were to win the total return would be £190 (£110 +£80)

Individually @ 6/1 each half would generate £27.51

£190/£27.51 = 6.9 so almost 7 halves to generate the same profit. Obviously there is a trade off of the lower numbers producing a return of some sorts and you almost break even at 4 halves.

There is also the fact a half for a withdrawal doesn't produce anything on an individual basis.




McDowells putt on 18 and 3g on 17 last night didn't help us much so we kinda hit the woodwork twice but such is the way it goes. We are not where we wanted to be but not exactly ripping up the betting slip yet more casting it aside, but it is live.

Sandy

Redarmi showed why this was a bad bet a few pages ago.  The actual odds today on the four matches for a tie are 6/1, so the maths becomes even less favourable.  His maths were more compelling than mine.

I am on my phone do can't check.  Your bet would be better than the singles if there were 5 or 6 ties.  7 looks to produce a similar result.  On every other outcome it looks like the singles were the best bet.  That should be compelling too.

I don't think the end result shows anything.  But after 8 games, you would only expect to see just over 1 tie on average, do zero can't be a disaster.  Although it is obviously a good start for my side.

For the bet, I think the best outcome would be for one team to go well clear.  I think you are more likely to see people agreeing a tie after the overall result is already decided.  Presumably the tie will be a bit shorter in the later matches on day 3 to allow for this.  

I think this thread is a good learning tool for us all.  Redarmi definitely improved on my approach here.  Since I started poker, I'd more or less quit my break even at best betting.  Now I am definitely seeing a lot more edges than I did.  

[hector62]

Any recommendations for 3G this afternoon?

I have reached my limit on the number of bets  I can have on the go with Fred. I have backed him myself and I reckon Mr Tikay has too. Feel free to adopt him and propose him for Fred as I will not be sleighted at all.

[Tonji]

Today for cycling fans, Il Lombardia "The Race of Falling Leaves"

Looks to be a Gilbert & Contador battle.

The last European Classic. On Eurosport from 3pm

Thanks Photo Bloke. I've really enjoyed the Cycling thanks to the thread.

Contador appears to be 8/1.....


http://www.oddschecker.com/other-sports/cycling/one-day-classics/giro-di-lombardia/winner

I had Contador at 10/1 (think he should be 6 or 7/1). Gilbert at 2/1 too short.

I've heard Valverde is not starting (although he's up in the betting). Weather forecast set for rain. Crashes aplenty possible on tricky descents. Bit of a lottery.

No Fred recommendations.
 
They are rolling out in 15 mins.

Rain as expected, horrible

Click to see full-size image.

[Doobs]

Any recommendations for 3G this afternoon?

I have reached my limit on the number of bets  I can have on the go with Fred. I have backed him myself and I reckon Mr Tikay has too. Feel free to adopt him and propose him for Fred as I will not be sleighted at all.

Same.  I took 2.34, now 2.4 on betfair.  I am guessing there isn't much value anymore as everyone saw what he did yesterday,  but I have a ride the wave weakness.

[doubleup]

The biggest was £110 for over 4.5 halved matches in the Ryder Cup, which was later shown to be mathematically unsound,  

It wasn't shown to be unsound , just shown not to be provably sound.        

If we take the price of 6/1 for a draw.

There are28 games.

Total stake £110.

To maintain the same risk £110/28 = individual stake per game of £3.93.

If the over 4.5 were to win the total return would be £190 (£110 +£80)

Individually @ 6/1 each half would generate £27.51

£190/£27.51 = 6.9 so almost 7 halves to generate the same profit. Obviously there is a trade off of the lower numbers producing a return of some sorts and you almost break even at 4 halves.

There is also the fact a half for a withdrawal doesn't produce anything on an individual basis.




McDowells putt on 18 and 3g on 17 last night didn't help us much so we kinda hit the woodwork twice but such is the way it goes. We are not where we wanted to be but not exactly ripping up the betting slip yet more casting it aside, but it is live.

Sandy

Thats a bit of a red herring - the bet is good if chance of a halved match is 18% or better.  The recent stats would indicate that this is the case.  The poo-pooers say those stats are unreliable and that is the debate.

[horseplayer]

frankel about to gallop on ruk now (free to view if your not a sub)

great to see sir henry there made my day that

[tikay]

The biggest was £110 for over 4.5 halved matches in the Ryder Cup, which was later shown to be mathematically unsound,  

It wasn't shown to be unsound , just shown not to be provably sound.        

If we take the price of 6/1 for a draw.

There are28 games.

Total stake £110.

To maintain the same risk £110/28 = individual stake per game of £3.93.

If the over 4.5 were to win the total return would be £190 (£110 +£80)

Individually @ 6/1 each half would generate £27.51

£190/£27.51 = 6.9 so almost 7 halves to generate the same profit. Obviously there is a trade off of the lower numbers producing a return of some sorts and you almost break even at 4 halves.

There is also the fact a half for a withdrawal doesn't produce anything on an individual basis.




McDowells putt on 18 and 3g on 17 last night didn't help us much so we kinda hit the woodwork twice but such is the way it goes. We are not where we wanted to be but not exactly ripping up the betting slip yet more casting it aside, but it is live.

Sandy

Redarmi showed why this was a bad bet a few pages ago.  The actual odds today on the four matches for a tie are 6/1, so the maths becomes even less favourable.  His maths were more compelling than mine.

I am on my phone do can't check.  Your bet would be better than the singles if there were 5 or 6 ties.  7 looks to produce a similar result.  On every other outcome it looks like the singles were the best bet.  That should be compelling too.

I don't think the end result shows anything.  But after 8 games, you would only expect to see just over 1 tie on average, do zero can't be a disaster.  Although it is obviously a good start for my side.

For the bet, I think the best outcome would be for one team to go well clear.  I think you are more likely to see people agreeing a tie after the overall result is already decided.  Presumably the tie will be a bit shorter in the later matches on day 3 to allow for this.  

I think this thread is a good learning tool for us all.  Redarmi definitely improved on my approach here.  Since I started poker, I'd more or less quit my break even at best betting.  Now I am definitely seeing a lot more edges than I did. 

Amen to that, for sure.

[ripple11]

Bournemouth against Walsall, League One

I have a friend who is a Walsall season ticket holder, who alerted this to me this morning, and is currently coach bound with a load of Saddlers to the South Coast. He had to book in advance to get on the supporters coach. He tells me this is the first time in five years that his away coach is full.  Relevance? Walsall are an improving outfit, attracting casual supporters again

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/bournemouth-v-walsall/winner

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/tables


Bournemouth have won one of their first 8, and none at home

Walsall have won 2 and drawn 1 of 4 away (and have lost only 2 of 8, overall), and are ten places above Bournemouth in the table

Walsall price

4/1

yes, that's 4/1


Unless anyone can explain to me why, recommend a surreptitious, almost covert, nibble on £20 Walsall to win at 4/1

bournemouth have bought in david james this week

probably a good thing, personally i think walsall will struggle to maintain there start

THE David James? 42 years old, was with Bristol City last season?

Good grief.

You may well be right about Walsall being a bit ahead of themselves, but 4/1 looks a bit big to my untrained eye.

It's a good shout....just how you're wrong.
The manager is under real pressure as we have spent money, and have a decent side on paper,and are under performing.. We need a home result this afternoon, to kick start the season. Plus with James coming in, Harry in the stand, and a minutes applause for John Bond ...... should hopefully help galvanise the team, to pull their finger out.

[doubleup]

The actual odds today on the four matches for a tie are 6/1,

This is aftertiming - obv if the actual odds had been available questions could have been asked, but they weren't.  No one came up with the likely odds of a tie, which was the only logical basis to question the bet.

I think this thread is a good learning tool for us all.  

agree

[hector62]

Cricket tighter than a mouses .....

[superwomble]

This might be very pedantic but it is Kedwell Fred is on, not Kedwall.

[tikay]

Bournemouth against Walsall, League One

I have a friend who is a Walsall season ticket holder, who alerted this to me this morning, and is currently coach bound with a load of Saddlers to the South Coast. He had to book in advance to get on the supporters coach. He tells me this is the first time in five years that his away coach is full.  Relevance? Walsall are an improving outfit, attracting casual supporters again

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/bournemouth-v-walsall/winner

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/tables


Bournemouth have won one of their first 8, and none at home

Walsall have won 2 and drawn 1 of 4 away (and have lost only 2 of 8, overall), and are ten places above Bournemouth in the table

Walsall price

4/1

yes, that's 4/1


Unless anyone can explain to me why, recommend a surreptitious, almost covert, nibble on £20 Walsall to win at 4/1

bournemouth have bought in david james this week

probably a good thing, personally i think walsall will struggle to maintain there start

THE David James? 42 years old, was with Bristol City last season?

Good grief.

You may well be right about Walsall being a bit ahead of themselves, but 4/1 looks a bit big to my untrained eye.

It's a good shout....just how you're wrong.
The manager is under real pressure as we have spent money, and have a decent side on paper,and are under performing.. We need a home result this afternoon, to kick start the season. Plus with James coming in, Harry in the stand, and a minutes applause for John Bond ...... should hopefully help galvanise the team, to pull their finger out.

Ahh, I forgot the "Bond factor", but I'm struggling to see how David James would make much difference to any Team.

Anyway, too late, we are on now.

[tikay]

Cricket tighter than a mouses .....

Hmm, not looking too good at the moment.

[redarmi]

This is aftertiming - obv if the actual odds had been available questions could have been asked, but they weren't.  No one came up with the likely odds of a tie, which was the only logical basis to question the bet.

I suggested 5/1 was a conservative price estimate when i did the probability calculations yesterday.  They don't vary much tbh so they aren't that difficult.  they are always going to be in the 9/2-6/1 range with the possible exception of the very late games in the singles when agreed ties are a bit more likely.