Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

San Marino have scored 18 goals in 22 years

However, England to win to nil is a prohibitive 1/8

Looking at their last 15 competitive away results, going back to 2007

Away (most recent results first)

0-4
0-11 (Netherlands)
0-8 (Finland)
0-8 (Hungary)
0-6
0-7
0-5
0-7
0-6
0-10 (Poland)
0-4
0-7
0-3 (Cyprus)
0-6
0-3 (Wales)

gives a mean score of just under 7-0 (99 goals conceded in 15 games)

Whilst the trend in International football is for the minnows to be improving, at least in organisation, such that scores of 1 to 4-0 are more commonplace than 7-0+, San Marino do not appear to have reached that stage yet

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/world-cup/world-cup/england-v-san-marino/total-home-goals

Match Home goals

Less than 6  9/5

6-8 11/10

7 or more 8/11

9 or more  5/2  


I wondered, for discussion purposes, whether we could consider 9+ at 5/2?

The poisson probs based on a mean of 7 are

0.30   <6 0.43   6 to 8 0.55   7+ 0.27   9+

So unless there is a "total collapse" factor of some kind, the odds wouldn't seem that great.

But England are better than the average San Marino opponent, so it is a reaosnable asumption to put the mean above 7? 

3/1 with Stan James looks very good value to me.   

[tikay]

Tikay

Please tell us what you did after leaving the studios last night?

I think Neil led you astray!!

Nothing so glamorous I'm afraid.

New Car Parking restrictions have been applied at Sky HQ, as Local Authority Guidelines have reduced the amount of spaces employees may offer.

On-site spaces are now reserved for shift workers & front-of-camera peeps.

So I got a 93 page form I had to fill in, & then you had to go queue at Security to get the new permit.

I don't do queues, or patience, so I thought I'd try & blag it. Fail, I got turned away.

I'm here most days, & can park across the way in an off-site overflow car park, ("Grasshoppers Rugby Club", wtf?) so I parked it there last night, it is only about 200 yards away. After the show finished, I walked to the car, then drove a quarter of a mile up the little access lane to the Main Road. Where the barrier had been closed & padlocked at Midnight.

There was a gap between the barrier & a hedge to allow pedestrian access. It looked just big enough to squeeze a car through. Almost. Having tried & failed that, & got the car completely stuck between barrier & fence, I could now neither go forward - no room - or back, as the wing-mirrors were "caught", & they only hinge backwards, not forwards.

I could not even open the car door now, as the barrier post was blocking it on the drivers side, & the fence on the passenger side. 

By now it was 1am, & I was getting just a shade tetchy & irritable.

At this juncture, having received a complaint from the householder with the house next to the barrier about the noise of a diesel car engine running at 1am outside his bedroom window, a police car arrived, drived by a Lady Police person.

She saunters up all smug like, explains about the complaint, & asks me to step out of the car.

I explain that I can't, I'm stuck, no room for the door to open, & I can't drive either forward or backward.

Not to be rude, like, but when she then says "well that was not very clever of you, was it?", I felt obliged to carefully consider my options before replying.

It got worse though. Now she gets all helpful, & suggests she will drive to the Sky Security Office & fetch a man with a key.

"Wait there" she says. Comedian, eh?

 

[tikay]

San Marino have scored 18 goals in 22 years

However, England to win to nil is a prohibitive 1/8

Looking at their last 15 competitive away results, going back to 2007

Away (most recent results first)

0-4
0-11 (Netherlands)
0-8 (Finland)
0-8 (Hungary)
0-6
0-7
0-5
0-7
0-6
0-10 (Poland)
0-4
0-7
0-3 (Cyprus)
0-6
0-3 (Wales)

gives a mean score of just under 7-0 (99 goals conceded in 15 games)

Whilst the trend in International football is for the minnows to be improving, at least in organisation, such that scores of 1 to 4-0 are more commonplace than 7-0+, San Marino do not appear to have reached that stage yet

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/world-cup/world-cup/england-v-san-marino/total-home-goals

Match Home goals

Less than 6  9/5

6-8 11/10

7 or more 8/11

9 or more  5/2  


I wondered, for discussion purposes, whether we could consider 9+ at 5/2?

The poisson probs based on a mean of 7 are

0.30   <6 0.43   6 to 8 0.55   7+ 0.27   9+

So unless there is a "total collapse" factor of some kind, the odds wouldn't seem that great.

But England are better than the average San Marino opponent, so it is a reaosnable asumption to put the mean above 7? 

3/1 with Stan James looks very good value to me.   

3/1 to score how many?

[tikay]

here we go

ENGLAND V SAN MARINO

goal to be scored 46th to 6oth minute 8-13 william hill suggest £50


in the last 21 games competitive away from home san marino have conceded in 16 of those games in this period

the true price based on that is shorter than 1-3

Thanks horsey.

I need to head up the M1 shortly, but I'll look at this, & all the football stuff, later this afternoon.

[Doobs]

San Marino have scored 18 goals in 22 years

However, England to win to nil is a prohibitive 1/8

Looking at their last 15 competitive away results, going back to 2007

Away (most recent results first)

0-4
0-11 (Netherlands)
0-8 (Finland)
0-8 (Hungary)
0-6
0-7
0-5
0-7
0-6
0-10 (Poland)
0-4
0-7
0-3 (Cyprus)
0-6
0-3 (Wales)

gives a mean score of just under 7-0 (99 goals conceded in 15 games)

Whilst the trend in International football is for the minnows to be improving, at least in organisation, such that scores of 1 to 4-0 are more commonplace than 7-0+, San Marino do not appear to have reached that stage yet

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/world-cup/world-cup/england-v-san-marino/total-home-goals

Match Home goals

Less than 6  9/5

6-8 11/10

7 or more 8/11

9 or more  5/2  


I wondered, for discussion purposes, whether we could consider 9+ at 5/2?

The poisson probs based on a mean of 7 are

0.30   <6 0.43   6 to 8 0.55   7+ 0.27   9+

So unless there is a "total collapse" factor of some kind, the odds wouldn't seem that great.

But England are better than the average San Marino opponent, so it is a reaosnable asumption to put the mean above 7? 

3/1 with Stan James looks very good value to me.   

3/1 to score how many?

9 or more!  No easy games in international football, except San Marino at home, as the old saying goes. 

[typhoon13]

Tikay

Please tell us what you did after leaving the studios last night?

I think Neil led you astray!!

Nothing so glamorous I'm afraid.

New Car Parking restrictions have been applied at Sky , as Local Authority Guidelines have reduced the amount of spaces employees may offer.

On-site spaces are now reserved for shift workers & front-of-camera peeps.

So I got a 93 page form I had to fill in, & then you had to go queue at Security to get the new permit.

I don't do queues, or patience, so I thought I'd try & blag it. Fail, I got turned away.

I'm here most days, & can park across the way in an off-site overflow car park, ("Grasshoppers Rugby Club", wtf?) so I parked it there last night, it is only about 200 yards away. After the show finished, I walked to the car, then drove a quarter of a mile up the little access lane to the Main Road. Where the barrier had been closed & padlocked at Midnight.

There was a gap between the barrier & a hedge to allow pedestrian access. It looked just big enough to squeeze a car through. Almost. Having tried & failed that, & got the car completely stuck between barrier & fence, I could now neither go forward - no room - or back, as the wing-mirrors were "caught", & they only hinge backwards, not forwards.

I could not even open the car door now, as the barrier post was blocking it on the drivers side, & the fence on the passenger side. 

By now it was 1am, & I was getting just a shade tetchy & irritable.

At this juncture, having received a complaint from the householder with the house next to the barrier about the noise of a diesel car engine running at 1am outside his bedroom window, a police car arrived, drived by a Lady Police person.

She saunters up all smug like, explains about the complaint, & asks me to step out of the car.

I explain that I can't, I'm stuck, no room for the door to open, & I can't drive either forward or backward.

Not to be rude, like, but when she then says "well that was not very clever of you, was it?", I felt obliged to carefully consider my options before replying.

It got worse though. Now she gets all helpful, & suggests she will drive to the Sky Security Office & fetch a man with a key.

"Wait there" she says. Comedian, eh?

 

Hmmmm

[tikay]

NINE?

Nine goals?

ENGLAND?

Are you mad an actuary?

[doubleup]

But England are better than the average San Marino opponent, so it is a reaosnable asumption to put the mean above 7?  

3/1 with Stan James looks very good value to me.  

The poisson probs based on a mean of 7 are


0.27   9+

even at an average of 7 there is a bit of value in 3-1

[Dubai]

For some reason England havent always been totally ruthless when playing the minnows like other countries, maybe a mindset thing

[TightEnd]

KABOOM

Matt Hughes ‏@MattHughesTimes

Ashley Cole may have to wait for his 100th #England cap as Baines starts v San Marino tonight. Cole will return for 99 v Poland on Tuesday.

[tikay]

For some reason England havent always been totally ruthless when playing the minnows like other countries, maybe a mindset thing

Start practising writing Tourney reports please.

[tikay]

KABOOM

Matt Hughes ‏@MattHughesTimes

Ashley Cole may have to wait for his 100th #England cap as Baines starts v San Marino tonight. Cole will return for 99 v Poland on Tuesday.

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!

[tikay]

KABOOM

Matt Hughes ‏@MattHughesTimes

Ashley Cole may have to wait for his 100th #England cap as Baines starts v San Marino tonight. Cole will return for 99 v Poland on Tuesday.

Is he starting in the specified position?

[TightEnd]

KABOOM

Matt Hughes ‏@MattHughesTimes

Ashley Cole may have to wait for his 100th #England cap as Baines starts v San Marino tonight. Cole will return for 99 v Poland on Tuesday.

Is he starting in the specified position?

did the bet specify a position?

[The Camel]

Good morning.

The Michael Van Gerwen darts bet.

I'm afraid I kept missing that, even though I seem to recall that is was bumped several times.

He is now 50/1 with Betfred.

1) Is this still a worthwhile bet?

2) Win, or each way? EW terms are "half, 1,2".

I have taken a tenner for myself, & if we agree it is still a bet, I'll transfer it across to the Fred account today.

Also, do we know who the original author of the proposal was, as I need to assign it to someone if we take it?

BUMPETY BUMP

I Posted the above last SUNDAY.

It refers to the upcoming PDC Championships, NOT the current thingie in Dublin.

His current best price is 40/1.

I "reserved" a tenner at 50/1, but asked...

Should it be win or EW?

Who was the original owner of the bet? (We now know it was BAZZABOY)

I have already placed the bet on my own account, but will tx it across if we agree it is a Fred bet.

Can't do any harm shipping it across to Fred can it?

I can only hope the draw in the Worlds opens up much like it has here.

Would have thought until we know if he's in Taylor's half or not it is neutral ev. (or small +ev in line with the bet bet being +ev)