Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

Is there any merit in us looking closer at those golfers that use the belly putters in the short term? As someone that played golf at county level many years ago, I know many decent golfers that resorted to the belly putter as the last chance saloon, and the opinions I have canvassed is that their world now has an end date!!
Most can't see past this, and I wonder if the pros feel the same and will be working extra hard to maximise the time they may feel they have left? Or am I over reacting like some of my mates!
I see Bradly is leading the the World Challenge.

Welcome any thoughts

[FUN4FRASER]

Some Good Pieces by Neil ,Phil and others over the last few days and totally understand the logic on how you have more chance of making a profit in less popular markets.

Football and one day International cricket have always been my chosen sport but with there been less 50 over matches (due mainly to twenty /twenty) my focus is more football these days

Not sure you are wanting Football recommendations anymore but the thread can decide and Ill offer up when I see fit.

So after not seeing a decent bet in 6 weeks I now have identified 2 in the space of a few days...The first was Spurs to beat Liverpool on Wednesday , and the next is Chelsea to beat West Ham away from home on Saturday (early kick off) , as I feel West Ham have been punching above their weight so far this season and Chelsea are ready to put a team to the sword.

If it was at Stamford Bridge Chelsea would be a 2-5 / 1-3  but away from home they are currently Evens @ Bet Victor & Hills


Suggested Bet Chelsea to beat West Ham @ Evens

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/west-ham-v-chelsea/winner

[redarmi]

Miami Heat -7 10/11 or better.  Bluesq have it and Betfred have -5.5  according to Oddschecker.  San Antonio have Duncan, Ginobli and Parker out and it has not long broke.  Will be a lot shorter come gametime.  £110 I think.  You need to do it now though.

[tikay]

Miami Heat -7 10/11 or better.  Bluesq have it and Betfred have -5.5  according to Oddschecker.  San Antonio have Duncan, Ginobli and Parker out and it has not long broke.  Will be a lot shorter come gametime.  £110 I think.  You need to do it now though.

In like a shot!

Thanks Stu.

We got £110 @ 10/11 with Blue Square, Miami Heat MINUS 7.

ON


Miami Heat -7 @ 10/11 
Market
 Handicap Winner
 
Event
 NBA
San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat
2012-11-30 01:00:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £110.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £110.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-11-29 21:37:38
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000154

[tikay]

For those interested, -7 still available in 4 spots as @ now, 9.40pm.



http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/san-antonio-spurs-at-miami-heat/point-spread

[tikay]

Note we are on that San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat game twice now - we already placed TL900's bet this morning for UNDER 205.5 points.

Gonna be quite a squeeze in the morning.

[class]

All the -7 has gone, now 10.5!

[tikay]

Jeez, that Miami line has now gone to -11.5, and the points to 200.

I think that is a good thing.

[JaffaCake]

When does Miami become no value. Remember the spurs lost by 30 to a much worse team than Miami when Pop did this last year

[tikay]

When does Miami become no value. Remember the spurs lost by 30 to a much worse team than Miami when Pop did this last year

No idea Jeff. Maybe our NBA variance is gonna turn the other way at last.

My sources ( sorry, can't reveal source......) tell me that Danny Green has not travelled with the Spurs, either.

Men against boys if you ask me........

[redarmi]

When does Miami become no value. Remember the spurs lost by 30 to a much worse team than Miami when Pop did this last year

I couldn't take +12 on the Spurs that is for sure.

[Doobs]

Interested in the views of the snooker statisticians regarding the 147 potential in the upcoming UK Champs. Decent range in the prices here with Skybet going 13/8 while BetFred are top with 11/5.

I know the standard has gone up massively in recent years and so 147's are nowhere like the rarity they used to be (much like 9 darters) but not sure how this correlates to the likelihood in any given event.  The fact is that this and the Worlds are the most likely though due to the length of the matches and the quality of the players taking part in those long matches.

There have already been two 147 breaks in qualifying for this tournament (making it 11 total for the year) and so my hypothesis to be confirmed/rejected is that the layers have not caught up with the increasing probability of these coming off.  Perhaps similar to the mispricing that famously occurred back in the day with hole in one markets.

Thus we should have a decent wager (say £50) on the 11/5 with Betfred - giving us a longterm sweat for the tournament on top of the hypothesised value.

The hole in one gane were getting a big price on a short price occurence, you seem to be suggesting taking a short price about a short price occurence.  This could be more akin to the drop goal coup that was organised here?  Surely we produce some stats to back up the hypothesis before punting, even if it is only £50?

As it is there have been only 5 147s in the main draw proper this year.  It seems like there are way more tournaments than they used to be.  If all these tournaments were equal it would be an easy swerve.  But they aren't, and the minor events are shorter and are likely to have lower quality fields?  

There have been 3 147s in the 9 big ranking tournaments this year, which gives a rough 2/1, but the world championship has more frames so will skew it and there aren't nearly enough statistics there to be sure.

In 2011, all bar one were in minor events or qualifying.  On a brief perusal it looks like the same story in 2010, and in 2009 there were only 2 in all tournaments.  2008 is promising, but by then I feel I am stretching it to try and find evidence to back the hypothesis.

In addition, Ronnie has 13% of all 147s, so expect his absence to cause a drop in the expected number.

There really isn't anything that would convince me that 11/5 looks too long, and I'd rather be a layer than a backer at that price.  

Cheers


 

Guess I prefer talking to myself.

I had a look again at this tonight, and it looks like there could be a correlation between the 147s in the qualifying tournamt and the 147s in the main event.

I then checked the venues and realise that they happen in different venues.

But that leads me to one last thought, is it likely that on average the tables are going to be significantly better in the UK than in China?  Wasn't someone ranting about the lack of tables in China to practice on before one of the events, or have I imagined it?

If so, that could be the missing piece of the jigsaw?

[JaffaCake]

They're without their best 6 players including 2 injured n they would be 5 point dogs at least anyway. Wouldn't wanna back San an without at least 16 or 18 myself

Ps tikay u make me laugh

[tikay]

They're without their best 6 players including 2 injured n they would be 5 point dogs at least anyway. Wouldn't wanna back San an without at least 16 or 18 myself

Ps tikay u make me laugh

Shush. They think it was me that sussed Danny Green did not travel. Pretty sure I got it through.

[tikay]

Interested in the views of the snooker statisticians regarding the 147 potential in the upcoming UK Champs. Decent range in the prices here with Skybet going 13/8 while BetFred are top with 11/5.

I know the standard has gone up massively in recent years and so 147's are nowhere like the rarity they used to be (much like 9 darters) but not sure how this correlates to the likelihood in any given event.  The fact is that this and the Worlds are the most likely though due to the length of the matches and the quality of the players taking part in those long matches.

There have already been two 147 breaks in qualifying for this tournament (making it 11 total for the year) and so my hypothesis to be confirmed/rejected is that the layers have not caught up with the increasing probability of these coming off.  Perhaps similar to the mispricing that famously occurred back in the day with hole in one markets.

Thus we should have a decent wager (say £50) on the 11/5 with Betfred - giving us a longterm sweat for the tournament on top of the hypothesised value.

The hole in one gane were getting a big price on a short price occurence, you seem to be suggesting taking a short price about a short price occurence.  This could be more akin to the drop goal coup that was organised here?  Surely we produce some stats to back up the hypothesis before punting, even if it is only £50?

As it is there have been only 5 147s in the main draw proper this year.  It seems like there are way more tournaments than they used to be.  If all these tournaments were equal it would be an easy swerve.  But they aren't, and the minor events are shorter and are likely to have lower quality fields? 

There have been 3 147s in the 9 big ranking tournaments this year, which gives a rough 2/1, but the world championship has more frames so will skew it and there aren't nearly enough statistics there to be sure.

In 2011, all bar one were in minor events or qualifying.  On a brief perusal it looks like the same story in 2010, and in 2009 there were only 2 in all tournaments.  2008 is promising, but by then I feel I am stretching it to try and find evidence to back the hypothesis.

In addition, Ronnie has 13% of all 147s, so expect his absence to cause a drop in the expected number.

There really isn't anything that would convince me that 11/5 looks too long, and I'd rather be a layer than a backer at that price. 

Cheers


 

Guess I prefer talking to myself.I had a look again at this tonight, and it looks like there could be a correlation between the 147s in the qualifying tournamt and the 147s in the main event.

I then checked the venues and realise that they happen in different venues.

But that leads me to one last thought, is it likely that on average the tables are going to be significantly better in the UK than in China?  Wasn't someone ranting about the lack of tables in China to practice on before one of the events, or have I imagined it?

If so, that could be the missing piece of the jigsaw?

Mr Jamier-Host logged off after he Posted that, & has not been back on since, & my response to him this morning was broadly......

IMO, much depends on how the Tables are set up at the venue, how tight the pockets are, what the humidity is, etc.  I also noted that Bobby1 is very well versed in professional snooker, & worked on the "other side" for several years, so his input would be useful. He has been offline all of today, as he is working the golf I think.

Maybe we'll get some feedback tomorrow.