Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Interested in the views of the snooker statisticians regarding the 147 potential in the upcoming UK Champs. Decent range in the prices here with Skybet going 13/8 while BetFred are top with 11/5.

I know the standard has gone up massively in recent years and so 147's are nowhere like the rarity they used to be (much like 9 darters) but not sure how this correlates to the likelihood in any given event.  The fact is that this and the Worlds are the most likely though due to the length of the matches and the quality of the players taking part in those long matches.

There have already been two 147 breaks in qualifying for this tournament (making it 11 total for the year) and so my hypothesis to be confirmed/rejected is that the layers have not caught up with the increasing probability of these coming off.  Perhaps similar to the mispricing that famously occurred back in the day with hole in one markets.

Thus we should have a decent wager (say £50) on the 11/5 with Betfred - giving us a longterm sweat for the tournament on top of the hypothesised value.

The hole in one gane were getting a big price on a short price occurence, you seem to be suggesting taking a short price about a short price occurence.  This could be more akin to the drop goal coup that was organised here?  Surely we produce some stats to back up the hypothesis before punting, even if it is only £50?

As it is there have been only 5 147s in the main draw proper this year.  It seems like there are way more tournaments than they used to be.  If all these tournaments were equal it would be an easy swerve.  But they aren't, and the minor events are shorter and are likely to have lower quality fields? 

There have been 3 147s in the 9 big ranking tournaments this year, which gives a rough 2/1, but the world championship has more frames so will skew it and there aren't nearly enough statistics there to be sure.

In 2011, all bar one were in minor events or qualifying.  On a brief perusal it looks like the same story in 2010, and in 2009 there were only 2 in all tournaments.  2008 is promising, but by then I feel I am stretching it to try and find evidence to back the hypothesis.

In addition, Ronnie has 13% of all 147s, so expect his absence to cause a drop in the expected number.

There really isn't anything that would convince me that 11/5 looks too long, and I'd rather be a layer than a backer at that price. 

Cheers


 

Guess I prefer talking to myself.I had a look again at this tonight, and it looks like there could be a correlation between the 147s in the qualifying tournamt and the 147s in the main event.

I then checked the venues and realise that they happen in different venues.

But that leads me to one last thought, is it likely that on average the tables are going to be significantly better in the UK than in China?  Wasn't someone ranting about the lack of tables in China to practice on before one of the events, or have I imagined it?

If so, that could be the missing piece of the jigsaw?

Mr Jamier-Host logged off after he Posted that, & has not been back on since, & my response to him this morning was broadly......

IMO, much depends on how the Tables are set up at the venue, how tight the pockets are, what the humidity is, etc.  I also noted that Bobby1 is very well versed in professional snooker, & worked on the "other side" for several years, so his input would be useful. He has been offline all of today, as he is working the golf I think.

Maybe we'll get some feedback tomorrow.

I didn't want to make that post sound the way it must have come across.  I did see your post this morning which made me revisit my post. 

I am back to undecided from no bet.

[bobby1]

One thing to note re the UK Championship.

There are qualifiers for Germany taking place this week( I think in Sheffield) with the final rounds taking place on Friday. Quite a few of the players due to play Saturday/Sunday in the UK are still in the German qualifiers. So some of them could be playing a week of quals and then str8 to the UK champs on Saturday. It might be worth keeping an eye out for players going all the way in the qualifiers and seeing how much snooker their oppos have played this week in relation to them.

On the 147 front, it is probably just too tough to know what the tables will play like to have any view really. I've been to the Barbican a few times and it's a bloody cold venue at this time of year which might make the tables play differently to qualifiers too.

[The Camel]

Interested in the views of the snooker statisticians regarding the 147 potential in the upcoming UK Champs. Decent range in the prices here with Skybet going 13/8 while BetFred are top with 11/5.

I know the standard has gone up massively in recent years and so 147's are nowhere like the rarity they used to be (much like 9 darters) but not sure how this correlates to the likelihood in any given event.  The fact is that this and the Worlds are the most likely though due to the length of the matches and the quality of the players taking part in those long matches.

There have already been two 147 breaks in qualifying for this tournament (making it 11 total for the year) and so my hypothesis to be confirmed/rejected is that the layers have not caught up with the increasing probability of these coming off.  Perhaps similar to the mispricing that famously occurred back in the day with hole in one markets.

Thus we should have a decent wager (say £50) on the 11/5 with Betfred - giving us a longterm sweat for the tournament on top of the hypothesised value.

The hole in one gane were getting a big price on a short price occurence, you seem to be suggesting taking a short price about a short price occurence.  This could be more akin to the drop goal coup that was organised here?  Surely we produce some stats to back up the hypothesis before punting, even if it is only £50?

As it is there have been only 5 147s in the main draw proper this year.  It seems like there are way more tournaments than they used to be.  If all these tournaments were equal it would be an easy swerve.  But they aren't, and the minor events are shorter and are likely to have lower quality fields? 

There have been 3 147s in the 9 big ranking tournaments this year, which gives a rough 2/1, but the world championship has more frames so will skew it and there aren't nearly enough statistics there to be sure.

In 2011, all bar one were in minor events or qualifying.  On a brief perusal it looks like the same story in 2010, and in 2009 there were only 2 in all tournaments.  2008 is promising, but by then I feel I am stretching it to try and find evidence to back the hypothesis.

In addition, Ronnie has 13% of all 147s, so expect his absence to cause a drop in the expected number.

There really isn't anything that would convince me that 11/5 looks too long, and I'd rather be a layer than a backer at that price. 

Cheers


 

Guess I prefer talking to myself.I had a look again at this tonight, and it looks like there could be a correlation between the 147s in the qualifying tournamt and the 147s in the main event.

I then checked the venues and realise that they happen in different venues.

But that leads me to one last thought, is it likely that on average the tables are going to be significantly better in the UK than in China?  Wasn't someone ranting about the lack of tables in China to practice on before one of the events, or have I imagined it?

If so, that could be the missing piece of the jigsaw?

Mr Jamier-Host logged off after he Posted that, & has not been back on since, & my response to him this morning was broadly......

IMO, much depends on how the Tables are set up at the venue, how tight the pockets are, what the humidity is, etc.  I also noted that Bobby1 is very well versed in professional snooker, & worked on the "other side" for several years, so his input would be useful. He has been offline all of today, as he is working the golf I think.

Maybe we'll get some feedback tomorrow.

I didn't want to make that post sound the way it must have come across.  I did see your post this morning which made me revisit my post. 

I am back to undecided from no bet.

The hole in one gang reference takes me back.

They were fantastic.

[The Camel]

Are the UK Championships back to the long format?

[bobby1]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_UK_Championship_(snooker)

i think it is the same format as last year

[The Camel]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_UK_Championship_(snooker)

i think it is the same format as last year

There was lots of criticism from the players IIRC

[redarmi]

Not sure if you guys noticed but Kaepernick was announced as 49ers starter today.  Got to feel a bit for Smith who has the fourth best QB rating in the league but I think it is the right decision.

[bobby1]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_UK_Championship_(snooker)

i think it is the same format as last year

There was lots of criticism from the players IIRC

Yes, there were a few complaints and rightly so. I think that might have been the Mark Allen Barry Hearn rant about selling the game out to suit the TV broadcasters.

[bobby1]

Not sure if you guys noticed but Kaepernick was announced as 49ers starter today.  Got to feel a bit for Smith who has the fourth best QB rating in the league but I think it is the right decision.

He is pretty unlucky isn't he but it does look the right decision given that Kap can do he things Smith cannot do as well as the things he can.

[The Camel]

Not sure if you guys noticed but Kaepernick was announced as 49ers starter today.  Got to feel a bit for Smith who has the fourth best QB rating in the league but I think it is the right decision.

He is pretty unlucky isn't he but it does look the right decision given that Kap can do he things Smith cannot do as well as the things he can.

Was reading an article about Smith, although overall his numbers are mighty impressive they were declining badly.

Weeks 1-5 he was the number 1 ranked QB

From week 6 onwards he's only number 20.

And if you take out his stellar performance against the Cards, he's in the bottom 6 for the most recent games..

[JaffaCake]

Just seen the spurs starting line up. Literally never heard if one of them. They're basically their 7th to 12th best players. Mills de colo bonner diaw splitter

[bobby1]

He got a finger injury around the time of that Giants game and they played it down as nothing to worry about but he did seem to decline. If he has played at less than 100% and then they have taken him out he prob has another reason to be annoyed but looking past the stats I think the eye deffo tells the full story and Kap just looks so much better.

It might be interesting to see what happens when the D coordinators get a chance to get lots of full film on him. I remember Mike Vick going ballistic against Washington a few years ago and the most important plays of the game turned out to be that the Giants watched the film and saw that the way to stop Vick was to blitz him from the left instead of the right. As a left hander he then had to run right and he just wasn't the same passer running right and trying to throw left handed. Minny did the same thing in a big upset win later that year too and since then it seems the league has worked him out.

[Bad Beat]

 Tanya Stevenson was quite hard work, in that she seems quite shy and it's hard to get her talking. She told me that John Mcririck is basically her best mate and they got on from the start, that she backed the niners at 14/1 at the start but she wasn't so sure about them now, that she prefers cricket to racing by a mile, that she went to the Rams/Patriots Wembley game on here own and that although she has been to lots of funerals she has never, ever been to a wedding.

 I left some up at 6.4 on the niners and now some guy is trying to have lumps on at 6.0 even though it is stil 5/1 with virtually every firm. Going to have to hit the shops again.

 The hole in one gang wrote a book about their adventure. Keith and I got to know one of them (Paul Simons).

 Do you remember the day we waited for Surrey Racing in Englefield Green to open Keith and the bet we wanted?
 

[redarmi]

Christmas is cancelled.

[rfgqqabc]

Christmas is cancelled.

^