Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Left to right:

Magnus Carlsen, Luke McShane, Vladmir Kramnik, Malcolm Pein, Vishwanathan Anand and Levin Aronian.

From memory, yes, that appears to be correct.

Wonder if Tighty can recognize that Football "Stadium", & has any trivia on it?

[Tal]

Certain openings tend to be favoured by the players in any given tournament. To explain this: say your opponent in round one plays (not that you need to know what this means) a Catalan opening against you. You spend the evening looking at the game, studying whether you could have got an edge earlier and by the end of the night, you might have found a nice idea for your opponent. Next day, you play the Catalan against your next opponent.

This is simplistic but it is common to see the same openings coming up in comps. Certain openings suit certain players and this might give us some additional info to help our bets but the evidence gets stronger as the tournament progresses.

Just starting my train journey to the venue. Anticipating being the just in time for kick off. 3 changes to save a tenner ftw

[TL900]

Morning.

The early game today is Phoenix @ NYK. Knicks are 6-0 at home and Suns are 2-7 on the road. NYK have won their last 2 games while Suns have lost their last 2. In the 7 losses for the suns they have lost by >12 in 5 of them. They have one of the worst defences in the league and just cant cope with a good offence.

Suggest NYK -10 with ladbrokes. All other books are -10.5 and i expect it to be 12/13 come gametime.

GL

Morning to you too, Tom, & thanks.

You don't suggest a bet size, so I'm not sure how strongly you rate this bet, but we have gone for a medium bet.

Sorry, medium is good imo. I will always be in for 1 unit unless i say "this is really good in for 2 units or whatever"

I dont like betting very big on big spreads because there is the worry that NYK get so far infront and rest all their starters and then the suns come back with a late charge in the 4th Q. Still think this is a decent side though. gl

[hector62]

Morning Mr T. The man in the picture 4 from the left looks like this man who I have been watching in The Good Wife and not some chessy bod.

Maybe now is a good time to cash in your Punjara pounds Mr T, just another gentle reminder.

[Tal]

Good spot, hector! I had you down as a Telegraph man, but alas 'twas not to be the case. Malcolm Pein writes the daily chess article (I was going to say chess piece then) in the Telegraph.

I just tried to find a wiki entry but he only - only - has one in Debrett's:

http://www.debretts.com/people/biographies/browse/p/4054/Malcolm+PEIN.aspx

[TightEnd]

News from Kolkotais that the Eden Gardens curator has been restored and he states

"The match will be played on a used surface that will spin"

We can probably discount the draw

We should be closing out the Pujara bet and taking the £120-140 profit, probably via the Ed Gascoigne method outlined on the thread. Pujara remains 1/10 and above, but he's a Sehwag hundred away from 1/3

For Kolkata India 5/4, England 3/1, Draw 11/5

It can't be a draw. Backing either side before the toss is tricky

[Simon Galloway]

If it can't be a draw, and we don't have any other directional bias on the outcome, we could just lay the draw on Bf, or... At odds against, the old fashioned we could back both teams. Either level stakes, which does obv give us an eng bias, but still a positive result if India win. Or, chosen stakes such that we remain indifferent  to the winner.

I guess that was obvious tho!

[hector62]

Saracens v Gloucester Rugby union.

Usually Mr T I like to back underdogs playing at home, as home advantage is often not valued enough. Today I am going to go for the underdog playing away. We know Saracens struggle to score tries and they are far harder hit by international call ups. Gloucester's form is good having beaten Leicester and just losing to Harlequins away. It should be a close game but I think Gloucester have a better cutting edge and could get an excellent win.

Suggest £20 Gloucester @ 5/2 Sporting bet and £5 draw @ 20-1 Betfred and others.

Did you see our 2nd row man drop the try scoring pass in the 78th minute yesterday ? What with that and our F1 man opting for dry tyres in the rain I feel a tad jinxed. Today will turn it around though.

[aaron1867]

I'm putting the 8/13 on cardiff out there again, at home to Wednesday. 8/13 is a very good price, imo.

[TightEnd]

I'm putting the 8/13 on cardiff out there again, at home to Wednesday. 8/13 is a very good price, imo.

This might be one of those where Cardiff are genuine 1/2 or 2/5 shots, but I repeat the mantra that the thread doesn't need to be backing any team in the Championship at short odds-on v any other

and yes, I know Sheff Wed are very poor currently

[tikay]

Saracens v Gloucester Rugby union.

Usually Mr T I like to back underdogs playing at home, as home advantage is often not valued enough. Today I am going to go for the underdog playing away. We know Saracens struggle to score tries and they are far harder hit by international call ups. Gloucester's form is good having beaten Leicester and just losing to Harlequins away. It should be a close game but I think Gloucester have a better cutting edge and could get an excellent win.

Suggest £20 Gloucester @ 5/2 Sporting bet and £5 draw @ 20-1 Betfred and others.

Did you see our 2nd row man drop the try scoring pass in the 78th minute yesterday ? What with that and our F1 man opting for dry tyres in the rain I feel a tad jinxed. Today will turn it around though.

Afternoon hector.

Let us hope you have a change of fortune, you seem to be running a tad badly. Yes, I did see that dropped pass yesterday, but for that, we make a nice profit on the England New Zealand affair. Such is life.

We are on both your suggestions (televised on Sky Sports, too), & we beat the Draw odds by going to Betfair & getting 28.

£20 @ 5/2, Sporting Bet, Gloucester

£5 the Draw, Betfair, 28. 


ON


Bet Type: Single
Saracens v Gloucester Match Prices
Gloucester
5/2
Rugby Possible Payout 70.00 GBP
1 bet @
20.00 GBP 
Total Cost: 20.00 GBP Total Possible Payout
(inc. stake): 70.00 GBP

____________


Draw 28 £5.00 £135.00
Ref: 23775688459 Bet placed: 12:15 02-Dec-12

[aaron1867]

I'm putting the 8/13 on cardiff out there again, at home to Wednesday. 8/13 is a very good price, imo.

This might be one of those where Cardiff are genuine 1/2 or 2/5 shots, but I repeat the mantra that the thread doesn't need to be backing any team in the Championship at short odds-on v any other

and yes, I know Sheff Wed are very poor currently

I can agree with you slightly, but we really are that bad, think this is a great price to be 'pinching' money. I didn't realise until after looking at stats that Cardiff have a 100% record at home, very impressive.

[Tal]

Daily review and preview up on chess thread:

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=58441.msg1675838#msg1675838

[tikay]

I'm putting the 8/13 on cardiff out there again, at home to Wednesday. 8/13 is a very good price, imo.

Thanks Aaron. I am sure you are right, & Cardiff will win easily, but at that price, it is a bit too trappy for my liking, the Championship is a punters minefield right now. A few 5/2 shots would interest me more, to be honest.

Good luck with your bet though, hope you get the lot.

[tikay]

I'm putting the 8/13 on cardiff out there again, at home to Wednesday. 8/13 is a very good price, imo.

This might be one of those where Cardiff are genuine 1/2 or 2/5 shots, but I repeat the mantra that the thread doesn't need to be backing any team in the Championship at short odds-on v any other

and yes, I know Sheff Wed are very poor currently

I can agree with you slightly, but we really are that bad, think this is a great price to be 'pinching' money. I didn't realise until after looking at stats that Cardiff have a 100% record at home, very impressive.

I wish I could tell you how much money I have lost down the years "pinching money" Aaron!