Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

In answer to Jeff's question on the MVP I was obvioulsy right. There is no way that and Tom Brady combined were 4/6 to be MVP in that match-up. Nobody offered to lay me 4/9. The other part of taking 4/1 was that this could happen - you could be the favourite to win the game.

 Obviously the Ravens don't have a star QB who is a heavy favourite to be MVP if they win the game. Lots of people are thinking Ray Lewis (yuk).

 I do think that is a big favourite if the 49ers win though and at 9/5 with B365 yesterday he was value. I think 5/4 is about the price now.

Meh.

I disagree, I think it's impossible to be that dogmatic.

But it doesn't really matter.

[tikay]

India - England ODI

India won the toss & chose to insert the tourists.

The weather appears to be quite cold, & the fog only cleared shortly before the game commenced.

After 8 overs, England were 33-0, with Cook on 18, & Bell on 10.

There was, as expected, no place in the India team for Mr Pujara.

It is being suggested that there will be plenty of runs in this game, & 300+ will be needed to stand any chance.

[tikay]

Bell OUT for 10.

[tikay]

The Super Bowl is the ultimate mug punt. EVERYBODY in the country has a bet. The % of money attributed to the public compared to the pros goes to 90-10 and even 95-5. The bookies have this one chance to win all the money or get buried.

 If Liverpool played Norwich in the Super Bowl, (humour me for a second), and the "true" line was 9, (that is to say that over millions of Super Bowls Liverpool would win by 9 and nobody could profit in the long run by betting either side of 9) then the bookies might put up 10 as the opening number. They know that everyone hates Norwich, and for some reason they all love Liverpool. The line might get bet up to 10.5 and 11. 11 and 12 are dead numbers (they don't happen much with 7 and 3 the main ways to score) and so until it gets to 13 (a more significant number) the bookies would move further from the "true" line as the public money comes in.

 In this Super Bowl the line opened 4.5 and 5. The look ahead was 5.5 (the number that people predicted a 49er/Ravens SB would be before we saw the Championship games). Redarmi tells us he bet the -5 and he could see it going to 7 at the time.

 The line is now 3.5 with 66% of the tickets in Vegas being written on the Ravens (not the volume of money).

 6 comes up in NFL games just over 5% of the time.

 5 happens around 3% of the time and as such is considered a "dead number"

 4 happens around 5.5% of the time.

 3 happens around 16% of the time and therefore this is THE key number.

 Due to the less-significant importance of 4 and particularly 5 bookies do not mind moving off them. There is less chance they will be middled (shrewd punters betting Ravens +5.5 and 49ers -3.5 will not win both ways too often - not enough to cover the 10/11 they have bet and the risk it wouldn't work out).

 Bookies are terrified that they will be forced to move to 3 as a way of splitting the action and getting people to bet the 49ers as this gives them a very real middling worry.

 In 1991 when the Super Bowl fell on 3 to the Giants many bookmakers were wiped out overnight.

 It is looking possible that we might be able to bet the 49ers -3. If the "true" line is 3.5 then doing this at 4/5 or better would imo be an outstanding bet. I personally think the "true" line should be 5.5 so this would be a TRIPLE MAXIMUM.

 From the point of view of the Fred and greening oiut we have another Super Bowl phenomenon caused by the influx of public money...

What?

Send for CO-Doobs!

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0815, Wednesday January 23rd (covering 2 days)                        

PROFIT on Month = £339.10

Unsettled Bets  - £1,341.00




https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=18

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 0755, Wednesday January 23rd (covering 2 days)

We lost £25 over the last 48 hours, just the one bet.

We needed Betis to score twice in 90 minutes, they scored in the 1st minute but during the next 89 minurtes, failed to finish the job.

There was quite some debate yesterday on the Villa game, with suggestions for Villa to win (they did), for Benteke to score & Villa to win (both obliged) & for Villa to qualify (nope). It just did not look, to me, like a game to get too involved in.

We have some interest in today's India - England ODI, we are on England to win, & Finn to be Top English bowler.

England are batting first, & are 97-1 after 25 overs, so just shy of 4 an over. Acceleration time imminent.

We did some greening yesterday, on Rylan in CBB, so we have guaranteed ourselves a nice little profit there.  

Our "outstanding bets" figure of £1,341 is getting rather high, but a goodly amount is invested in Superbowl & CBB, all of which will shortly mature, & we appear to be in a good spot with both.  

We have added two lovely little fun bets on the 6 Nations to our forward portfolio.

[Doobs]

The Super Bowl is the ultimate mug punt. EVERYBODY in the country has a bet. The % of money attributed to the public compared to the pros goes to 90-10 and even 95-5. The bookies have this one chance to win all the money or get buried.

 If Liverpool played Norwich in the Super Bowl, (humour me for a second), and the "true" line was 9, (that is to say that over millions of Super Bowls Liverpool would win by 9 and nobody could profit in the long run by betting either side of 9) then the bookies might put up 10 as the opening number. They know that everyone hates Norwich, and for some reason they all love Liverpool. The line might get bet up to 10.5 and 11. 11 and 12 are dead numbers (they don't happen much with 7 and 3 the main ways to score) and so until it gets to 13 (a more significant number) the bookies would move further from the "true" line as the public money comes in.

 In this Super Bowl the line opened 4.5 and 5. The look ahead was 5.5 (the number that people predicted a 49er/Ravens SB would be before we saw the Championship games). Redarmi tells us he bet the -5 and he could see it going to 7 at the time.

 The line is now 3.5 with 66% of the tickets in Vegas being written on the Ravens (not the volume of money).

 6 comes up in NFL games just over 5% of the time.

 5 happens around 3% of the time and as such is considered a "dead number"

 4 happens around 5.5% of the time.

 3 happens around 16% of the time and therefore this is THE key number.

 Due to the less-significant importance of 4 and particularly 5 bookies do not mind moving off them. There is less chance they will be middled (shrewd punters betting Ravens +5.5 and 49ers -3.5 will not win both ways too often - not enough to cover the 10/11 they have bet and the risk it wouldn't work out).

 Bookies are terrified that they will be forced to move to 3 as a way of splitting the action and getting people to bet the 49ers as this gives them a very real middling worry.

 In 1991 when the Super Bowl fell on 3 to the Giants many bookmakers were wiped out overnight.

 It is looking possible that we might be able to bet the 49ers -3. If the "true" line is 3.5 then doing this at 4/5 or better would imo be an outstanding bet. I personally think the "true" line should be 5.5 so this would be a TRIPLE MAXIMUM.

 From the point of view of the Fred and greening oiut we have another Super Bowl phenomenon caused by the influx of public money...

What?

Send for CO-Doobs!

We already have close to 2x the max on the 9ers, guess once we break the psychological barrier, there can be no harm in breaching it properly?

If we are going for full on degenning, I vote Red.

[tikay]

Gulp.....

[Doobs]

Gulp.....

Wasn't entirely serious

[tikay]

Phew.

[Doobs]

I can also confirm that I have not greened out.  I am not sat on a 5/3 x max though.

[TightEnd]

India - England ODI

India won the toss & chose to insert the tourists.

The weather appears to be quite cold, & the fog only cleared shortly before the game commenced.

After 8 overs, England were 33-0, with Cook on 18, & Bell on 10.

There was, as expected, no place in the India team for Mr Pujara.

It is being suggested that there will be plenty of runs in this game, & 300+ will be needed to stand any chance.

England score 257

The analysis was, if I may say so, spot on, in that the pitch nibbled around all day, and it was tricky to score at times

Cook got an all time shocker of an LBW decision on 76 that might be crucial. At 133-1 that triggered a mini collapse

Now we need the pitch to dew up and for England's quicks to bowl the right length

Should be a very close game

If I were brave I would press at odds against, but I'm not.

[Doobs]

India - England ODI

India won the toss & chose to insert the tourists.

The weather appears to be quite cold, & the fog only cleared shortly before the game commenced.

After 8 overs, England were 33-0, with Cook on 18, & Bell on 10.

There was, as expected, no place in the India team for Mr Pujara.

It is being suggested that there will be plenty of runs in this game, & 300+ will be needed to stand any chance.

England score 257

The analysis was, if I may say so, spot on, in that the pitch nibbled around all day, and it was tricky to score at times

Cook got an all time shocker of an LBW decision on 76 that might be crucial. At 133-1 that triggered a mini collapse

Now we need the pitch to dew up and for England's quicks to bowl the right length

Should be a very close game

If I were brave I would press at odds against, but I'm not.

Is 6/4 on Betfair for anyone feeling brave.

Edit.  And other betting outlets!  Could have saved myself a commission

2nd edit.  Managed to lay off and bet with bluesq. 

[tikay]

India - England ODI

India won the toss & chose to insert the tourists.

The weather appears to be quite cold, & the fog only cleared shortly before the game commenced.

After 8 overs, England were 33-0, with Cook on 18, & Bell on 10.

There was, as expected, no place in the India team for Mr Pujara.

It is being suggested that there will be plenty of runs in this game, & 300+ will be needed to stand any chance.

England score 257

The analysis was, if I may say so, spot on, in that the pitch nibbled around all day, and it was tricky to score at times

Cook got an all time shocker of an LBW decision on 76 that might be crucial. At 133-1 that triggered a mini collapse

Now we need the pitch to dew up and for England's quicks to bowl the right length

Should be a very close game

If I were brave I would press at odds against, but I'm not.

That decision was so bad it was almost cheating.

Anyway, it is what is is. Fine pre-game analysis Rich, backed up by gherky, now we just need to get the job finished.

England to win, Finn to be top England bowler. Alex needs the money.

[TightEnd]

Liking the Finn bet a lot

currently 5/2 2nd fave to Tredwell to be top bowler this innings

That is incorrect, after the performance of Ishant Sharma a tall bowler who was unhittable on certain lengths.


Got to got to got to take wickets with the new ball here