Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

i have no idea Neil but i looking forward to reading more

[BigAdz]

Need an early nite.......will have to wait!

[horseplayer]

i thought i might get a bit of stick for my vlaar comment

[Tal]

i thought i might get a bit of stick for my vlaar comment

Well they only conceded 1 in 94 minutes, so I'd say QED.

I mean, granted, it was his fault...

[TheDazzler]

...several hundred pages ago I spoke about the true line, which is designed to mean that the prices reflect with 100% accuracy the chances of each outcome and against that how bookies can put up a line that splits the action. This would be a line which causes half of the volume of money to be bet one way and half the other.

 American Football is a great sport to see examples of this in operation and to get value from them.

 The money in US football betting comes broadly from two groups:

 The pros - syndicates of sports bettors, big name gamblers like Billy Walters and all the people who follow their action.

 The public - all the wagons and ice-creams.

 On an average day of NBA the volume of action given to the books by the pros may be 65% of the handle. The public may chip in with the other 35%. The books attempt to set lines that split the result.

 On a day in the play-offs the volume may flip. Lots more public money floods the market and teams like Oklahoma, Miami and Chicago get all the action while Indiana and Orlando do not. The bookies react by shading their lines. They lean towards splitting the action.

 The pros have a lot more bets at this time. They know the bookies have put up the "wrong" price. Teams that would have been 2.5 "normally" go off 4.5. The public bet the 4.5 favourites and the bookies grimace as they take the 4.5 dog action from the pros. They are cheering for the pros to win and they have 11/10 their money. There only problem now is that the public will all go broke if they bet like this and they'll be left with just pros (unless the public defy the odds and win anyway despite the "bad" prices).

 How does this effect the Super Bowl and why the fuck have I brought it up?

I'm guessing it'll be something to do with the 49ers getting overbet by Joe Public meaning it might be an opportunity to profitably green?

[Tal]

Bradford celebrations have started in earnest:

[Tal]

...several hundred pages ago I spoke about the true line, which is designed to mean that the prices reflect with 100% accuracy the chances of each outcome and against that how bookies can put up a line that splits the action. This would be a line which causes half of the volume of money to be bet one way and half the other.

 American Football is a great sport to see examples of this in operation and to get value from them.

 The money in US football betting comes broadly from two groups:

 The pros - syndicates of sports bettors, big name gamblers like Billy Walters and all the people who follow their action.

 The public - all the wagons and ice-creams.

 On an average day of NBA the volume of action given to the books by the pros may be 65% of the handle. The public may chip in with the other 35%. The books attempt to set lines that split the result.

 On a day in the play-offs the volume may flip. Lots more public money floods the market and teams like Oklahoma, Miami and Chicago get all the action while Indiana and Orlando do not. The bookies react by shading their lines. They lean towards splitting the action.

 The pros have a lot more bets at this time. They know the bookies have put up the "wrong" price. Teams that would have been 2.5 "normally" go off 4.5. The public bet the 4.5 favourites and the bookies grimace as they take the 4.5 dog action from the pros. They are cheering for the pros to win and they have 11/10 their money. There only problem now is that the public will all go broke if they bet like this and they'll be left with just pros (unless the public defy the odds and win anyway despite the "bad" prices).

 How does this effect the Super Bowl and why the fuck have I brought it up?

I'm guessing it'll be something to do with the 49ers getting overbet by Joe Public meaning it might be an opportunity to profitably green?

Dazzler! Don't answer rhetorical questions how many times do I need to say that?

[Chompy]

Re: the CBB market, Bad Beat is spot on in that these days it's pretty much formed by a few heavy-hitting Betfairians (fewer than in the pre-PC days) and, therefore, it's rarely accurate.

However, it's still more volatile than most markets, especially over the shorter three-week Celebrity course, and weird stuff happens, Rylan's X-Factor tour auditions being a prime example.

There's no certainty when it comes to public voting on a channel like CH5, so I advised His Nittiness to take the freebie.

[Bad Beat]

 The Super Bowl is the ultimate mug punt. EVERYBODY in the country has a bet. The % of money attributed to the public compared to the pros goes to 90-10 and even 95-5. The bookies have this one chance to win all the money or get buried.

 If Liverpool played Norwich in the Super Bowl, (humour me for a second), and the "true" line was 9, (that is to say that over millions of Super Bowls Liverpool would win by 9 and nobody could profit in the long run by betting either side of 9) then the bookies might put up 10 as the opening number. They know that everyone hates Norwich, and for some reason they all love Liverpool. The line might get bet up to 10.5 and 11. 11 and 12 are dead numbers (they don't happen much with 7 and 3 the main ways to score) and so until it gets to 13 (a more significant number) the bookies would move further from the "true" line as the public money comes in.

 In this Super Bowl the line opened 4.5 and 5. The look ahead was 5.5 (the number that people predicted a 49er/Ravens SB would be before we saw the Championship games). Redarmi tells us he bet the -5 and he could see it going to 7 at the time.

 The line is now 3.5 with 66% of the tickets in Vegas being written on the Ravens (not the volume of money).

 6 comes up in NFL games just over 5% of the time.

 5 happens around 3% of the time and as such is considered a "dead number"

 4 happens around 5.5% of the time.

 3 happens around 16% of the time and therefore this is THE key number.

 Due to the less-significant importance of 4 and particularly 5 bookies do not mind moving off them. There is less chance they will be middled (shrewd punters betting Ravens +5.5 and 49ers -3.5 will not win both ways too often - not enough to cover the 10/11 they have bet and the risk it wouldn't work out).

 Bookies are terrified that they will be forced to move to 3 as a way of splitting the action and getting people to bet the 49ers as this gives them a very real middling worry.

 In 1991 when the Super Bowl fell on 3 to the Giants many bookmakers were wiped out overnight.

 It is looking possible that we might be able to bet the 49ers -3. If the "true" line is 3.5 then doing this at 4/5 or better would imo be an outstanding bet. I personally think the "true" line should be 5.5 so this would be a TRIPLE MAXIMUM.

 From the point of view of the Fred and greening oiut we have another Super Bowl phenomenon caused by the influx of public money...

[horseplayer]

i thought i might get a bit of stick for my vlaar comment

Well they only conceded 1 in 94 minutes, so I'd say QED.

I mean, granted, it was his fault...

i get more than my fair share wrong

did not look as fit as start of season either (nothing to do with poor defending on the goal though)

[Bad Beat]

 Every number in an NFL handicap corresponds to a % chance to win the game.

 At 6 the favouite is around 4/9 to win the game. If they drop to 5.5 then their price to win the game should drop. At 3.5 (where the line is now) the 49ers are 8/13 and the Ravens are 13/8. If you like the Ravens you shouldn't fare any differently over millions of Super Bowls, whether you play them +3.5 or at 13/8.

However, in the Super Bowl a weird thing happens.

 Wagons, ice-creams, mugs, squares...call them what you will, don't really like betting odds on.

 People that bet the favourtie will take -3.5 at 10/11 as that is nearly evens and they can live with themselves. The books will have 100s of people taking 10/11 for every one that takes 8/13.

 People that bet the Ravens will take 13/8. The books will have (in terms of number of bets not volume) many more people backing the Ravens at 13/8 than 10/11 +3.5.

 The bookies have just one Super Bowl a year. They need to squeeze as much as they can.

 They will for 100% certain shorten the price of the Ravens, (on the money-line, the win the game market), to below what it "should be" so that it will be out of line with the spread (handicap price).

 If you are thinking of backing the Ravens on a straight fixed-odds bet to win it as a hedge then you should probably do it early.

 To give you a great example of this situation coming up the big college bowl game this year had Notre Dame (a very public team that is loved by all) a 10 point dog. This line was 9.5 in places but generally it was a very solid line. The fixed-odds price for Notre Dame was 5/2 .

[Bad Beat]

 In answer to Jeff's question on the MVP I was obvioulsy right. There is no way that and Tom Brady combined were 4/6 to be MVP in that match-up. Nobody offered to lay me 4/9. The other part of taking 4/1 was that this could happen - you could be the favourite to win the game.

 Obviously the Ravens don't have a star QB who is a heavy favourite to be MVP if they win the game. Lots of people are thinking Ray Lewis (yuk).

 I do think that is a big favourite if the 49ers win though and at 9/5 with B365 yesterday he was value. I think 5/4 is about the price now.

[Tal]

To what extent does heart rule head in Superbowl punting?

Given what you've explained, would there be more money on the Ravens because of Ray Lewis/Ed Reed?

Compare it to the Grand National, where there's a wash of people putting 25p each way on four horses based purely on the names they like and the bookies are only too happy to cheer them on. Is there an equivalent in US sports or spreads?

[TightEnd]

A punter on Skybet had £250 acca tonight, so the PR tells us



The 97th minute pen by Brighton (scored) was a £250,000 spot kick.....

[Bad Beat]

 Definitely agree Tal. This is the public - it's all about sentiment.

 Also Baltimore were a big public bet last week and they have now won a couple of games were they were big dogs - people who have been betting them have got pockets that are currently full.

 There is also the two week break. People who bet bigger and who are more professional and people who bet favourites tend to leave it later to bet. If this line does reach 3 it can never last. I think it could easily go back to 6 by gametime.