Tips for Tikay

[Snowball]

I was just going to ask you about Finns chances having had the benefit of seeing the first innings so thats good enough for me.
Was it a surprise that India choose to Bowl?Dhoni seems to do something strange in nearly every match.

[DungBeetle]

A punter on Skybet had £250 acca tonight, so the PR tells us



The 97th minute pen by Brighton (scored) was a £250,000 spot kick.....

People do correct score triples?  Seriously?

[TightEnd]

I was just going to ask you about Finns chances having had the benefit of seeing the first innings so thats good enough for me.
Was it a surprise that India choose to Bowl?Dhoni seems to do something strange in nearly every match.

Yes it surprised me, given how this pitch generally behaves under lights

However, Dhoni will be happy with the 257 score so advantage him over the armchair lads so far!

[tikay]

A punter on Skybet had £250 acca tonight, so the PR tells us



The 97th minute pen by Brighton (scored) was a £250,000 spot kick.....

People do correct score triples?  Seriously?

The story is 100% true.

[DungBeetle]

I'm not suggesting it isn't.  Just trying to understand the mindset of the correct score triple - especially at £250.  How many times are you dead after 30 mins?  And how many times do you get nailed in the last 10 mins?  Doesn't seem like much of a punt to me.

[TightEnd]

I'm not suggesting it isn't.  Just trying to understand the mindset of the correct score triple - especially at £250.  How many times are you dead after 30 mins?  And how many times do you get nailed in the last 10 mins?  Doesn't seem like much of a punt to me.

I am speculating, but these of course are terrible bets, and on rare occasions it scoops the bookie doesn't mind one copping so as to encourage more ice-cream bets, should their PR get it talked about in enough places

A PR ice-cream like me has helped them here, I suppose....

[action man]

A punter on Skybet had £250 acca tonight, so the PR tells us



The 97th minute pen by Brighton (scored) was a £250,000 spot kick.....

People do correct score triples?  Seriously?

The story is 100% true.

Guess sly bet are happy to take a 250 bet when it's a million to land.

[Tal]

A punter on Skybet had £250 acca tonight, so the PR tells us



The 97th minute pen by Brighton (scored) was a £250,000 spot kick.....

People do correct score triples?  Seriously?

The story is 100% true.

Guess sly bet are happy to take a 250 bet when it's a million to land.

Anyone?

[BigAdz]

I read it last night and I read it again this morning, I have a degree from Kent Uni, I have been punting for thirty years, and profitably for the last ten.........I waited til he is likely to be in bed..........
Can anyone explain what Neil said please?!!

[tikay]

I read it last night and I read it again this morning, I have a degree from Kent Uni, I have been punting for thirty years, and profitably for the last ten.........I waited til he is likely to be in bed..........
Can anyone explain what Neil said please?!!

Ha!

I need to read it again, when things are nice & quiet, it was fascinating, but some of it whooshed me.

One question jumped off the page, in fact, so I'll go find it now, & ask him.

[tikay]

The Super Bowl is the ultimate mug punt. EVERYBODY in the country has a bet. The % of money attributed to the public compared to the pros goes to 90-10 and even 95-5. The bookies have this one chance to win all the money or get buried.

 If Liverpool played Norwich in the Super Bowl, (humour me for a second), and the "true" line was 9, (that is to say that over millions of Super Bowls Liverpool would win by 9 and nobody could profit in the long run by betting either side of 9) then the bookies might put up 10 as the opening number. They know that everyone hates Norwich, and for some reason they all love Liverpool. The line might get bet up to 10.5 and 11. 11 and 12 are dead numbers (they don't happen much with 7 and 3 the main ways to score) and so until it gets to 13 (a more significant number) the bookies would move further from the "true" line as the public money comes in.

 In this Super Bowl the line opened 4.5 and 5. The look ahead was 5.5 (the number that people predicted a 49er/Ravens SB would be before we saw the Championship games). Redarmi tells us he bet the -5 and he could see it going to 7 at the time.

 The line is now 3.5 with 66% of the tickets in Vegas being written on the Ravens (not the volume of money).

 6 comes up in NFL games just over 5% of the time.

 5 happens around 3% of the time and as such is considered a "dead number"

 4 happens around 5.5% of the time.

 3 happens around 16% of the time and therefore this is THE key number.

 Due to the less-significant importance of 4 and particularly 5 bookies do not mind moving off them. There is less chance they will be middled (shrewd punters betting Ravens +5.5 and 49ers -3.5 will not win both ways too often - not enough to cover the 10/11 they have bet and the risk it wouldn't work out).

 Bookies are terrified that they will be forced to move to 3 as a way of splitting the action and getting people to bet the 49ers as this gives them a very real middling worry.

 In 1991 when the Super Bowl fell on 3 to the Giants many bookmakers were wiped out overnight.
 It is looking possible that we might be able to bet the 49ers -3. If the "true" line is 3.5 then doing this at 4/5 or better would imo be an outstanding bet. I personally think the "true" line should be 5.5 so this would be a TRIPLE MAXIMUM.

 From the point of view of the Fred and greening oiut we have another Super Bowl phenomenon caused by the influx of public money...

Can you expand on that bit please Neil?

[tikay]

Every number in an NFL handicap corresponds to a % chance to win the game.

 At 6 the favouite is around 4/9 to win the game. If they drop to 5.5 then their price to win the game should drop. At 3.5 (where the line is now) the 49ers are 8/13 and the Ravens are 13/8. If you like the Ravens you shouldn't fare any differently over millions of Super Bowls, whether you play them +3.5 or at 13/8.

However, in the Super Bowl a weird thing happens.

 Wagons, ice-creams, mugs, squares...call them what you will, don't really like betting odds on.

 People that bet the favourtie will take -3.5 at 10/11 as that is nearly evens and they can live with themselves. The books will have 100s of people taking 10/11 for every one that takes 8/13.

 People that bet the Ravens will take 13/8. The books will have (in terms of number of bets not volume) many more people backing the Ravens at 13/8 than 10/11 +3.5.

 The bookies have just one Super Bowl a year. They need to squeeze as much as they can.

 They will for 100% certain shorten the price of the Ravens, (on the money-line, the win the game market), to below what it "should be" so that it will be out of line with the spread (handicap price).

 If you are thinking of backing the Ravens on a straight fixed-odds bet to win it as a hedge then you should probably do it early.

 To give you a great example of this situation coming up the big college bowl game this year had Notre Dame (a very public team that is loved by all) a 10 point dog. This line was 9.5 in places but generally it was a very solid line. The fixed-odds price for Notre Dame was 5/2 .

Can someone explain how those two things come to correlate?

How do we know, or calculate, that -6 = 4/9, & -3.5 = 8/13?

Is it a maths equation, does one arise from the other, or is there some other link?

I know that in football, reds can evaluate Over-Unders from the price of the Outright, etc. Is this similar?

[peejaytwo]

The unbelievable part of the Slybet acca is that anyone can get £250 on.
What an ice cream he must be!

[tikay]

The unbelievable part of the Slybet acca is that anyone can get £250 on.
What an ice cream he must be!

".....Punter wins £256,000 four-fold accumulator

London-based Sky Bet customer bags over quarter of a million on Tuesday night’s games

23rd January 2013

One lucky Sky Bet punter scooped over £256,000 on a unique football accumulator on Tuesday night, thanks to a stoppage time penalty.

David Lopez’s 97th minute spot-kick for Brighton against Blackburn completed the 1,027/1 shot as both teams scored (8/11), one quarter of an ambitious four-fold bet.

The punter, a 27-year-old from South London, also predicted three correct scores as Aston Villa beat Bradford 2-1 (15/2), Notts County defeated Oldham 1-0 (6/1) and Aldershot lost 2-1 at home to Northampton (9/1).

Just before Christmas, the same customer raked in a £172,000 progressive off a £25 stake on Deal or No Deal casino slot game on Sky Vegas.....".

[tikay]

Is it Ant?